This may be nothing, and more than likely not the correct thread for this;
Did anyone else pickup on Gustav Iden’s body language in his Breakfast with Bob interview? Anyone else notice how far away he was leaning from Bob? I watched a few other interviews to see if this was a trend - i.e. Bob may have bad breath for example? He was the only one. He looked quite uncomfortable and he normally seems quite at ease in interviews and a bit of a good laugh. I am probably way off the mark, but if he has a shocker or pulls out due to illness it may be an early indicator. I may well be full of shit too of course!

Actually it might have been 2016 and didn't he get 2 penalties, one for drafting and one for blocking?

wurf

Its so funny people say this. Mikal had a perfect example of whats wrong with youtube. Going into St.George Blumenfelt was sick. He was on the fence about racing. Every single day he told his coach and Mikal he did not feel good. He was not ready and just wanted to go home. Of course he did not have a camera in his face when he was saying this stuff. He was able to pick him self back up recover and win the race. This is the pros and cons of youtube. You get keyboard warrios thinking that every single athletes leading into races its just fairy tales and roses. Unfortunately its not. Alot of these athletes including the best in the world like Jan him self has even talked about times like this. Lionel just lets me record them because he wants to be an open book so people can follow the journey. I can tell you with 100% certainty none of this stuff is staged. None of its fake or planned. This is all just natural and what happens every day. I have worked with many other athletes in the past who all had breakdowns the exact same. I just did not dare to put a camera in their face and post it because they would kill me.

LS dont care what people think about him thankfully lol

Cheers to you and LS for the honesty!

Seriously, I almost never watch sports stuff even though I've been into a variety of sports in the past. But I can't stop watching your LS-Kona coverage!

Sooo, coming close to the races, these are my picks (unless any unfortunate incident may happen, crossing fingers )

1. Ryf
2. Haug
3. Phillip

For top 5 I pick LCB and Lisa Norden, in any order


For the guys

1. Blummenfelt
2. Skipper
3. Currie

For the top 5, Iden and Ditlev

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

I think it's going to be a fun one to watch this year. Here are my podium picks:

1. Daniella Ryf
2. Laura Phillip
3. Anne Haug


1. Gustav Iden
2. Kristian Blummenfelt
3. Lionel Sanders

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YouTube

Two norwegians on the podium wouldnt be a surprise.
All thoose mentioned are very likely to perform even though some may not start.

But its always some surprises. Wouldnt be surprised if Kienle is top 5-7. Sucks that Brownlee and Frodeno arent starting.

Mark Allen and Craig Alexander discuss their picks:

Well after a few days on the island here, I have a grasp of who I think will be top 5 men. It sounds to me like Blu has a cold again, but he had this same cold the days before SG, and it only slightly affected him. But Kona has a way of multiplying those very small flaws, so I give the nod to Iden over him this time around.

It really is funny that over the entire history of this race, virtually no men have won it first time out (luk Van Lerde). But this year many people have 3 to 5 first timers in their top 5 picks, with me among them. Losing Frodo and Ali has really opened up this race this year, and certainly has opened up the tactics that will be used to get a top 5. But of course every year has it's surprises, and we cannot know who will get sick in the next few days, or just have a really horrible day for no apparent reason on Saturday. With that caveat, here are my top 5 picks, not easy this year to winnow down to these 5 either..

1. Iden
2. Blu
3.Lange
4.Chartier
5. Ditlev
6 Currie

My Lange Pick is historical, he either has a great day, or stuffs it. I think he has his great day, just that there are a couple guys now that beat him on his best day. My Collin pick is from present form and recent history. Many of the greats worked their way up slowly and methodically. But there was a point that everyone said, "they have arrived", and now atop the mountain top. I think we will look back at Colin's last 8 months and say this was that time for him. Certainly if he gets top 5 this weekend, that should pretty well cement that he is no longer someone's whipping boy training partner. And hopefully he can get off that 10 year old age groupers bike he bought for 2k off of bay. Ditlev showed me in Dallas that he has finally figured out how to be a triathlete(Roth too), and now rides thinking about setting up his run. No doubt he could demolish everyone on the bike, probably get the bike record (on a like day it was set), but now he knows his run is also a weapon he can use, so rides smarter.

I went ahead and put a 6th pick, Currie is just hard to leave off any list really. He is in great recent form, and should be the spoiler to this group of 5 I put up. Hell, he could win this race under some conditions that are horrendous. the day itself and conditions is as much of a selector of the very top, as the guys themselves...

Gonna be a great race, and I imagine will not be one of those where we know the winner 6 hours in..

I agree with them (well, they are the experts, I am not :D) I think Currie will be a factor. All the people are picking Blum, Iden, Ditlev...did I miss it or did not they mention Lange? I do not think he will be top 3, but sure he can be top 5...and what about Skipper? He is my pick for 2nd...dark horse but not that dark, he was in the sub7 race...

So, in t1 is everyone expecting?

G1 Currie, Angert, Baekkegard, Laidlow, Smith, Svensson, Amberger

G2 Blum, Von Berg, Lange, Iden?; Heemerick, Appleton

G3 Skipper, Wurf, Sanders

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Sorry to say this but his name is Collin Chartier. He’s pretty good, famous and I’m a big fan, so it’s hard for me to see both first and last names wrong.

Anyway, I saw him up close right after he crossed the finish line in Dallas and he was a different animal. Everyone suffered from the heat except him. Question is can he handle the distance? Longer bike will definitely affect him. I think he’s still one of fast developing athletes.

Going on Thorsten's commentary/analysis https://www.trirating.com/kona/ - go to p91.
(edited) "The "St. George Five", the lead pack from the Ironman World Championships in May, consisted of Baekkegard, Smith, Currie, Laidlow and Angert. They should be with Amberger or at least no more than a minute behind. There are a few more who have the swim potential to be in that group, e.g. O'Donnell, Clavel, or [sic] Svensson." He also notes that Lange swims well at Kona (and I observe he was front pack in 2019 with Frodeno assessing he'd "overswum"). I wonder whether Chartier and Neumann can be added to Saturday's G1 candidates? Laidlow will be lost to a draft penalty at 28 miles.
There is a problem for those therein if the front pack is too big: it will not work as well as it did in May (when there were 5 all keen to get away and share the work).
Note Ditlev was not at St George and his modus operandi will affect the race - missing from your list but expect G2 and prepared to bury himself to get up there, hoping to shed any hangers on in the process. Think Currie and Baekkegaard may run better than him, mind.

Oh......KB announced he wants to swim with the front pack, instead of bridging up like StG, to gap gustav early....



cat amongst the pigeons!

Lange and Appleton are definitely 1st group material and Von Berg. I would add Hanson and Ditlev to second group predictions.

crazy to sleep on Hoffman.

Um, 6 days out from the race he does a brick of 100K bike followed by 40K at "race pace", aka 6 minute miles. Really? Seems a tad aggressive, no?

I agree, in these conditions that may have done more harm than they realise or intended. We will see on Saturday if that session worked or not. It seems just too high risk.

 

Sanders will be ready. He is faster than Skipper….

Really? Skipper has been well under 2:40 for his marathon, several times, Lionel has never done that.

And 104 mile ride the day before that. He did similar before Cozumel and it turned out ok 🤷‍♂️. Really is a totally different approach to preparing for a race. I remember when Sanders got destroyed for doing big workouts on the island leading up to a couple of his races in Kona.

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Let food be thy medicine...

When I was at my Ironman fittest I always rode 4-5 hours a week out from race day.
A 100km bike even at cruisy pace would take no more than 3 hours for a pro.
40km at race pace run after that though... that's pretty cray.

Press conference is live now

If Iden has upset ST Kona snobs, then I think I'll be cheering him and (after Skipper) hope he can win, in his post race Interview he says he /thinks Kona is overrated compared to his other wins, the course is boring and vows only to return if he gets bored at Oly, 70.3 and PTO just sit back and watch the meltdown in here!

Wanting to and doing are 2 different things but of course his race isnt affected if he’s not in the front pack immediately out of T2. Based on his comments in his lack of swimming (previous comments 6 weeks ago) I wouldn’t want to burn matches that early based on his ability.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II