I agree with you on the womens race. It looks like Ryf’s mini slump is over, she should still win if she’s at 80%. Would be surprised if someone not listed in those 5 gets on the podium.

The mens race is the most unpredictable for a long time. I’m picking either Blum or Iden to win, but neither has raced Kona so they may not look as invincible as normal. Lange and Ditlev are both a good chance. This is also probably the best chance of ever winning for the likes of Skipper, Currie, Sanders, McNamee and from what I saw in Dallas, Chartier. There’s a lot of potential champions, should be a great race to watch.

For the women I think Lucy is dropping down to 4-5 this year, I don't think she has the bike or run strength yet post-injury for a strong IM bike/run combo (judging from her last 2 races). I think Ryf, Philip, Haug, LCB, Matthews - dark horse pick of either Crowley or Heather Jackson for the podium (both look to be on the right track lately and Kona veterans).

No strong feelings on the men's race - I'd love to see Iden or KB rock it with a win the first time around, but Lange has the formula dialed and could sneak in with a victory.

Women's I agree with, there is just zero chance the winner is not one of those 5.

For the men's, hard to look past the Norwegians, but experience is against them. Has Ditlev been to Hawaii yet?

Yup the men's is wide open. I don't see Sander's making the top 5. And I think Ryf will podium, but not win. LCB to make the top 5, a little underdone to podium. I was going to say she didn't look great on the run in Dallas, but does anyone know how long she was riding without a battery? And did she not manage to hydrate properly after losing her bottles?

I don’t think he has. Due to his history, I’d have to say Lange has a pretty good chance. Now that his run strength is so well known, the strong bikers might try harder to drop him!

She said 2 laps stuck in the big gear.

Odd that Rudy von Berg isnt mentioned. I believe he has the potential to win. Based on previous achievements.

If Reece promises another dog if she podiums she might just find the strength to do so.

Let's hope all these athletes make it to the start line.
Frodeno and Brownlee lost to injury. Long lost to 70.3 main effort.
All the top women are still 'on'.
Chances of all 10 listed making it are slim.

i'll give my usual prediction for ryf: she either wins it going away, breathing through her nose, outriding half the men from about halfway through the bike, or else she never really factors at all and is barely top-10. i just don't see a world where she's duking it out for 2nd or 3rd.

the other thing i'd offer is that experience generally matters more at kona, so i'd watch out for wily veterans like crowley, TO, or kienle. late in the day they'll know how to close strong and ride out the ups and downs better than most, so i'd expect solid days from all.

as for lionel this year . . . no idea. can't figure that guy out.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

You find it odd that Rudy von Berg isn’t mentioned as a contender? Someone who raced his first full distance earlier this year, and has never raced Kona?

No disrespect to him, but I’d find it odd if he WAS mentioned.

WPRO favourites down to 4 (assumed) - very sad: three days before flying in from three weeks' heat acclimatisation in Houston (Woodlands).

Yes, what a weird year, this is starting to feel like the run up to St. George WC. Gutted for Kat. I would be surprised if everyone else made it to Kona. That being said I think Iden wins this one with Blum and Ditlev in an incredible race for 2nd.

I think Ryf wins it but Phillip should be able to give her a true run for her money. Unfortunately LCB is not on form for Kona yet. Maybe she will be on form for 70.3 WC's.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

And she still got the 2nd fastest bike split.

Lange is my favourite, weird how a two time Kona winner gets so little attention.

He's previously raced Kona with a domestique as well as blatantly drafting off others. One of his wins came after he got pinged twice and served two time penalties. He is a threat if he can do the same, but I would imagine there will be a few eyes on him and I'm guessing the time officials will be on the lookout for him as well.

In WPRO, other than Charles, none of the off-the-front swimmers will be there 6 hours later (best of those is Norden) so, on form, the other main contenders (but not Matthews now) will be together in a happy pack of their own. Then it'll be a 'duathlon' with Ryf (the fastest rider) and Haug the fastest runner, and Philipp, Moench and maybe Sodaro in between). Besides Charles, the untested (in a competitive full distance since her 4th at Kona in 2019) is Philipp. She successfully (legally) sucked Ryf's wheel in Dubai for 2+ hours. For 4:30+, doubtful, not least because Ryf must be close or past Charles by T2, and generate a decent gap at T2 on Philipp, and a bigger one on Haug. Charles keeps saying (in the loop adverts) that people have always doubted her. I suspect she'll doubt herself after 7 hours. Philipp and Haug are more predictable than Ryf and Charles (I assert).
https://www.ventusky.com/...&t=20221006/1500 (timings UTC so -10 for Hawaii)
MPRO: Is another reason (besides 70.3 focus) for Long not racing that he doesn't want to risk a good thrashing from Laidlow?

I can't see Charles-Barclay coming back that fast after her injury and making the podium. Running has always been her issue and after a injury bone injury its iffy.

Sanders will be ready. He is faster than Skipper and who know which "Lange" will show up?

Ryf and Lange for wins. Lange will be ready and will get it done.

Based on the workouts that Iden and Blu posted on Strava the other day, I'd say that they take 1 and 2 easily for men.
No idea about the women's race but if Ryf shows up like she did in StG then it will be a stomping.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Since Sanders has improved his swim, I'd have reckoned that Sanders is now a faster swimmer than Skipper. But in a duathlon Skipper is faster (unlike Laidlow). Together in the chase they might have the firepower to catch the front pack (what's left of it). We can look forward to the dance. But if they get to T2 together, I know who my money's on.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/...ipper/lionel-sanders

F Pro
Ryf
LCB
Haug
Phillip
Crowley

Mpro - if I could get odds on this top 5 it would pay big

Currie
Newman
Sanders
Drietz
Russel

Ryf will win without much of a challenge, especially with Kat out. If Sanders ever has a chance to win at Kona this might be the year. I still will pick Lange for the win.

i give you whatever odds you want for the male bet.

Ryf has this unless she gets sick, hurt, etc

For the men…. This is a joke right. You most likely don’t have any top 5… if top 10

I'm a big Lionel fan but I can't envision a scenario where he's on the podium. It seems like he's already convinced himself that the heat and humidity will defeat him.

Is Sanders better than Skipper in the swim? Seems based on IM Wales skipper is hitting form.

Not a joke, Some wishful thinking but also all guys who can win it. The mens race is wide open. Currie was runner up at St George, Lionel under new coaching could have a very good day, newman is an unknown internationally but his racing in Cairns in almost identical conditions has shown he is a force. So everyone has the Norwegians pencilled in to win, kona doesn’t always work like that, many have come here as a big fav and gone home empty handed. Macca took 7 attempts to win, Crowie a few goes, brownlee and gomez couldn't get it done.

The mens race is very exciting. The womens race Ryf is still dominating IM and behind it will be a good battle for podium.

Whatever you are smoking, i want some, seems fun!

I don't follow tri particularly closely anymore, but didn't Lange say he isn't racing?

Anyone who's watched Blum and Iden this year know those two are going 1-2, just in what order. I say Blum.
Experience, yadda yadda, the Norwegians perform regardless of course or conditions.

Ryf should cruise to her next title 15min ahead of whomever comes in 2nd. It won't be LCB.
I would have given 2nd it to Matthews but she's broken so maybe Philipp?
Maybe throw Crowley in the mix? She doesn't have gun run but her swim/bike is good.

Thanks mate! Just high on excitement for the race.

We will see with Blum and Iden, it is very hard to nail every race all year. Its not like they are racing a pack of middle aged accountants.

These two are marked men now also, there wont be a free ride up the queen K. They deserve the hype I agree but this race is on!

Yeah same. Would love him to win, but he will be lucky to make the top 10. He'll be 5mins down on the swim, burn all his candles to try and catch the lead guys on the bike and then struggle on the run.

I was watching a LS video with my girlfriend and she was gobsmacked at how negative he was and how down on himself he was. I guess when you watch a lot of his videos you kind of get used to it, but this was the first time she'd seen him. Perhaps that's his Achilles heel - his mental torment when it comes to triathlon. The race is lost before he's hit the start line. Perhaps he needs a different outlook, a different approach.

.
I was thinking while watching the latest one in Kona "Is this all an act for the drama?" Watching them all sitting in the living room,trying to get him to be more positive,was just mind boggling.Surely it must be a big joke that Talbot is playing on everyone.
.

Currie was second runner-up, not runner up...would be great to see him improve that though

One factor seems to be if Wurth allows anyone to stay with him on the bike again

Been saying this for years. Dude is massive physical talent but his head is just not there. He needs a psychologist more than a triathlon coach.

I wrote that before I saw his last video, just watched it....I don't know about it being a joke. When he was injured, according to him he laid on the couch for 3 weeks, too depressed to move. He needs to get that sorted.

He has held back a bit more on the bike recently. I feel like that may at least give him a chance, though apart from the one 2nd place finish at Kona, all his performances there have been along way from the front.

It seemed as if he just sits at the back of the pack, but I wouldn't be quick on sayin that he does worse than other pros in "legal drafting" packs. The year he put his domestique to pace him, ok..yeah I agree that was a bit lame.

FWIW, he should have silenced a few critics at Tulsa last year where he rode like an uber biker putting the likes of Skipper and Long out of contention on the bike. But somehow he always seem to carry around this drafting shadow behind him.

He doesn't seem like a fans favorite, but I wouldn't care if he wins again by punishing a few strong riders and hopefully he can shake off the stigma from his previous wins. However, it is most likely Iden vs Blu for the win.

I can't believe "Yo yo yo" isn't racing, self proclaimed strongest legs in the sport and (arguably) biggest mouth in triathlon and doesn't want to the race the big boys at the big race. Why?

Right after saying how Lange is a changed man and should've silenced critics with Tulsa, you drop a criticism on Long, who is a changed man and dropped that persona when his current sponsors took him on. His banter since then has been far more playful and his self evaluations far more modest.

Here is the WPRO 'bib' number list:
https://www.tri247.com/...ib-numbers-pro-women

I did criticize Lange for the "blue train" thingy. Likely legal, but did not get him any love from most fans and colleagues.

As for Long, I don't really follow him so I am not sure if he has changed his antics or not. Only saw a video way back in 2020. He came across as being very brash and going after Frodo and LS. After that, saw Frodo teasing him about swimming rescue, Appleton and another guy messing with him about training like Tarzan and racing like Jane, and more recently Laidlow going after him. It is my educated guess that if he is gets so much "attention" from many of his colleagues then he must still be doing something to deserve it.

I'm sure other pros are just as guilty as him when it comes to drafting, pushing the envelope etc I guess he's done it too many times, made it too obvious and been busted too much. The two penalties when he won Kona didn't win him many fans and didn't ingratiate himself amongst his fellow pros either - that should have been where he started racing a bit cleaner, but he carried on and now has a bad rep. Still, he's a good triathlete and should sneak into the top 5.

And, MPro start list:
https://www.tri247.com/triathlon-news/elite/ironman-kona-2022-start-list-bib-numbers-pro-men

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Do you have a record of Lange's penalties in 2017? I am only aware of him getting a drafting penalty in 2016, when he finished third.

I'd love it if Skipper won, I really would. His podcast, whilst a little unfiltered, is great.

He's a gun biker (12hrs over 300W still boggles my mind), his running has always been on point, it's just that bloody swim.

It would make a change for someone with a different background to win.

I am hoping his ride up Mauna Kea hasn't bust his legs though!

This may be nothing, and more than likely not the correct thread for this;
Did anyone else pickup on Gustav Iden’s body language in his Breakfast with Bob interview? Anyone else notice how far away he was leaning from Bob? I watched a few other interviews to see if this was a trend - i.e. Bob may have bad breath for example? He was the only one. He looked quite uncomfortable and he normally seems quite at ease in interviews and a bit of a good laugh. I am probably way off the mark, but if he has a shocker or pulls out due to illness it may be an early indicator. I may well be full of shit too of course!

Actually it might have been 2016 and didn't he get 2 penalties, one for drafting and one for blocking?

wurf

Its so funny people say this. Mikal had a perfect example of whats wrong with youtube. Going into St.George Blumenfelt was sick. He was on the fence about racing. Every single day he told his coach and Mikal he did not feel good. He was not ready and just wanted to go home. Of course he did not have a camera in his face when he was saying this stuff. He was able to pick him self back up recover and win the race. This is the pros and cons of youtube. You get keyboard warrios thinking that every single athletes leading into races its just fairy tales and roses. Unfortunately its not. Alot of these athletes including the best in the world like Jan him self has even talked about times like this. Lionel just lets me record them because he wants to be an open book so people can follow the journey. I can tell you with 100% certainty none of this stuff is staged. None of its fake or planned. This is all just natural and what happens every day. I have worked with many other athletes in the past who all had breakdowns the exact same. I just did not dare to put a camera in their face and post it because they would kill me.

LS dont care what people think about him thankfully lol

Cheers to you and LS for the honesty!

Seriously, I almost never watch sports stuff even though I've been into a variety of sports in the past. But I can't stop watching your LS-Kona coverage!

Sooo, coming close to the races, these are my picks (unless any unfortunate incident may happen, crossing fingers )

1. Ryf
2. Haug
3. Phillip

For top 5 I pick LCB and Lisa Norden, in any order


For the guys

1. Blummenfelt
2. Skipper
3. Currie

For the top 5, Iden and Ditlev

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

I think it's going to be a fun one to watch this year. Here are my podium picks:

1. Daniella Ryf
2. Laura Phillip
3. Anne Haug


1. Gustav Iden
2. Kristian Blummenfelt
3. Lionel Sanders

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YouTube

Two norwegians on the podium wouldnt be a surprise.
All thoose mentioned are very likely to perform even though some may not start.

But its always some surprises. Wouldnt be surprised if Kienle is top 5-7. Sucks that Brownlee and Frodeno arent starting.

Mark Allen and Craig Alexander discuss their picks:

Well after a few days on the island here, I have a grasp of who I think will be top 5 men. It sounds to me like Blu has a cold again, but he had this same cold the days before SG, and it only slightly affected him. But Kona has a way of multiplying those very small flaws, so I give the nod to Iden over him this time around.

It really is funny that over the entire history of this race, virtually no men have won it first time out (luk Van Lerde). But this year many people have 3 to 5 first timers in their top 5 picks, with me among them. Losing Frodo and Ali has really opened up this race this year, and certainly has opened up the tactics that will be used to get a top 5. But of course every year has it's surprises, and we cannot know who will get sick in the next few days, or just have a really horrible day for no apparent reason on Saturday. With that caveat, here are my top 5 picks, not easy this year to winnow down to these 5 either..

1. Iden
2. Blu
3.Lange
4.Chartier
5. Ditlev
6 Currie

My Lange Pick is historical, he either has a great day, or stuffs it. I think he has his great day, just that there are a couple guys now that beat him on his best day. My Collin pick is from present form and recent history. Many of the greats worked their way up slowly and methodically. But there was a point that everyone said, "they have arrived", and now atop the mountain top. I think we will look back at Colin's last 8 months and say this was that time for him. Certainly if he gets top 5 this weekend, that should pretty well cement that he is no longer someone's whipping boy training partner. And hopefully he can get off that 10 year old age groupers bike he bought for 2k off of bay. Ditlev showed me in Dallas that he has finally figured out how to be a triathlete(Roth too), and now rides thinking about setting up his run. No doubt he could demolish everyone on the bike, probably get the bike record (on a like day it was set), but now he knows his run is also a weapon he can use, so rides smarter.

I went ahead and put a 6th pick, Currie is just hard to leave off any list really. He is in great recent form, and should be the spoiler to this group of 5 I put up. Hell, he could win this race under some conditions that are horrendous. the day itself and conditions is as much of a selector of the very top, as the guys themselves...

Gonna be a great race, and I imagine will not be one of those where we know the winner 6 hours in..

I agree with them (well, they are the experts, I am not :D) I think Currie will be a factor. All the people are picking Blum, Iden, Ditlev...did I miss it or did not they mention Lange? I do not think he will be top 3, but sure he can be top 5...and what about Skipper? He is my pick for 2nd...dark horse but not that dark, he was in the sub7 race...

So, in t1 is everyone expecting?

G1 Currie, Angert, Baekkegard, Laidlow, Smith, Svensson, Amberger

G2 Blum, Von Berg, Lange, Iden?; Heemerick, Appleton

G3 Skipper, Wurf, Sanders

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Sorry to say this but his name is Collin Chartier. He’s pretty good, famous and I’m a big fan, so it’s hard for me to see both first and last names wrong.

Anyway, I saw him up close right after he crossed the finish line in Dallas and he was a different animal. Everyone suffered from the heat except him. Question is can he handle the distance? Longer bike will definitely affect him. I think he’s still one of fast developing athletes.

Going on Thorsten's commentary/analysis https://www.trirating.com/kona/ - go to p91.
(edited) "The "St. George Five", the lead pack from the Ironman World Championships in May, consisted of Baekkegard, Smith, Currie, Laidlow and Angert. They should be with Amberger or at least no more than a minute behind. There are a few more who have the swim potential to be in that group, e.g. O'Donnell, Clavel, or [sic] Svensson." He also notes that Lange swims well at Kona (and I observe he was front pack in 2019 with Frodeno assessing he'd "overswum"). I wonder whether Chartier and Neumann can be added to Saturday's G1 candidates? Laidlow will be lost to a draft penalty at 28 miles.
There is a problem for those therein if the front pack is too big: it will not work as well as it did in May (when there were 5 all keen to get away and share the work).
Note Ditlev was not at St George and his modus operandi will affect the race - missing from your list but expect G2 and prepared to bury himself to get up there, hoping to shed any hangers on in the process. Think Currie and Baekkegaard may run better than him, mind.

Oh......KB announced he wants to swim with the front pack, instead of bridging up like StG, to gap gustav early....



cat amongst the pigeons!

Lange and Appleton are definitely 1st group material and Von Berg. I would add Hanson and Ditlev to second group predictions.

crazy to sleep on Hoffman.

Um, 6 days out from the race he does a brick of 100K bike followed by 40K at "race pace", aka 6 minute miles. Really? Seems a tad aggressive, no?

I agree, in these conditions that may have done more harm than they realise or intended. We will see on Saturday if that session worked or not. It seems just too high risk.

 

Sanders will be ready. He is faster than Skipper….

Really? Skipper has been well under 2:40 for his marathon, several times, Lionel has never done that.

And 104 mile ride the day before that. He did similar before Cozumel and it turned out ok 🤷‍♂️. Really is a totally different approach to preparing for a race. I remember when Sanders got destroyed for doing big workouts on the island leading up to a couple of his races in Kona.

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Let food be thy medicine...

When I was at my Ironman fittest I always rode 4-5 hours a week out from race day.
A 100km bike even at cruisy pace would take no more than 3 hours for a pro.
40km at race pace run after that though... that's pretty cray.

Press conference is live now

If Iden has upset ST Kona snobs, then I think I'll be cheering him and (after Skipper) hope he can win, in his post race Interview he says he /thinks Kona is overrated compared to his other wins, the course is boring and vows only to return if he gets bored at Oly, 70.3 and PTO just sit back and watch the meltdown in here!

Wanting to and doing are 2 different things but of course his race isnt affected if he’s not in the front pack immediately out of T2. Based on his comments in his lack of swimming (previous comments 6 weeks ago) I wouldn’t want to burn matches that early based on his ability.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Here are my fantasy league picks:

Mens:
1. Kristian Blumenfelt
2. Braden Currie
3. Patrick Lange
4. Gustav Iden
5. Lionel Sanders

Womens:
1. Daniela Ryf
2. Lucy Charles Barcley
3. Laura Phillip
4. Anne Haug
5.Ruth Astle

Fastest Swim:
Sam Laidlow
Lucy Charles Barcley

Fastest Bike:
Cam Wurf
Daniela Ryf

Fastest Run:
Kristian Blumenfelt
Anne Haug


I've leaned more towards those with past experience in this race, but Blu seems very hard to touch at the moment. Ryf is very hard to bet against long course.
There are so many possibilities though and really I'm just excited for a great race. I am definitely biased towards Aussies/Kiwis and other athletes I generally enjoy watching race, so who knows?! We'll find out Saturday.

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Dayoutsports.com.au| Australia's Newest Cycling and Tri Apparel Brand

Hope this works...

Kienle in the press conf ....what was the question? LOL

Kristian seems so confident...so does Iden. Was Seb trying to play mind games talking about the experience?, because Lionel quickly said they were no rookies with all the data and tech they had developed...

Sarah True can be a factor...dont know if she is really fit, but if she is, she is a fast woman on the run... cannot wait to see

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

he sure does recover well

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

You are correct. She did surprise me by winning the IM after a long break. I was checking her Instagram and it was mostly about baby, family and light workouts. And suddenly Bam!!! She killed it.

Fastest swim by male will be by Svensson or Amberger.

I think what I see with their training is that it’s so specific and monitored they don’t train stupid in terms of going too hard. So when that happens you don’t really need extra recovery, you simply can move on to the next thing and be ready. It’s one of those philosophies that If you need days to recover from a workout you did it wrong. With them basically turning into real life science “experiments” they know exactly what they can handle.

So the workouts are pretty much dialed in exactly and thus the recovery is there but not an abundance is likely needed due to too intense etc.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Does anywhere know where you can bet on the races? in the past you could... was a good way to take advantage of sportsbooks that gave good odds on the favorites.

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“The answer is hard work. What are you doing on Christmas Eve? Are you riding your bike? January 1st – are you riding your bike?”- Lance Armstrong

Unbelievably, Barstool's Sportsbook had it.

I'm sure every book in the UK will be on it.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Barstool currently has it? or last race?

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“The answer is hard work. What are you doing on Christmas Eve? Are you riding your bike? January 1st – are you riding your bike?”- Lance Armstrong

I can just imagine Barstool’s Big Cat looking at tri like “look at these mofo’s wearing Lycra shorts all day” and he’ll probably put down some wages not knowing a damn thing about the athletes lol.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It was active yesterday -- not spotting it this morning so not sure if they closed it or what.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

That would be 100% on brand for BC.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Yup 2017 a week out we practised whole course including hydration hand ups as planned and taking on extra salt. Week later 2nd so worked okay (except for the taking on extra salt on race day advice).

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

got it--thanks!

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“The answer is hard work. What are you doing on Christmas Eve? Are you riding your bike? January 1st – are you riding your bike?”- Lance Armstrong

Any bets on drop outs due to Covid?

It's still a few days to go and from the various videos I have seen almost no one is masking/isolating/distancing. From my personal experience, asymptomatic Covid probably wouldn't have much of an effect, but like any illness, being sick would generally be a problem.

Noticed this too and i seem to remember not that long ago the likes of Lionel staying at the back of the Pro briefing or not doing an interview here and there to make sure there was no chance of getting it, it seems now no one is really bothered about it 🤔

Both Philipp and Haug had masked up for the (so-called) Press Conference. And it's not still a few days to go: the race is 'today'.

y

Yes - that's why I said "almost no one".

I'm not sure what you mean by "today"? Time from infection to symptoms can be as little as 24 hours. So lots of time still to catch and develop COVID.

Holly Lawrence and Lisa Norden got Covid after coming back from one of their races I believe. Daily cases report to CDC is about 80K a day, but many people don't even get tested or test at home, so they won't be captured. I can see cold/flu medicine shelf at Walmart has been pretty empty, so I know something is still up. Anyway, lets just hope no one get sick so everyone has a good race. Kat Mathew out is already and that's enough.

I'm not thinking of it from a spread of the virus point of view, just from a "I would hate to see some favorites have to drop out or have a compromised race" point of view. There is definitely lots of covid out there still. I wouldn't want to race with covid, or the flu or anything similar, so I'm just surprised so many people are seemingly taking no steps to mitigate risk.

So, did anyone pick Sodaro to win???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Dan Plews?

OK, did anyone in this thread pick Sodaro to win???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

first triathlon was 2017.....first time kona...she won in hokas as well...

I got 9/1 on Lange to win if anyone fancies that? If I get time ill go through the bookies odds later, he was my favourite anyway.

He would have to ride with the front pack and get off with them in T2 together and I don't see that happening. He'll be 5+ mins down when he hits T2. A few years ago he would have run them down, but that won't happen with the likes of Iden and KB.

It does seem like the uber runners did rather well yesterday, Sodaro, Haug and Philip (3:02 or under) will the same happen for the men 🤔 and if so is Chartier a dark horse? A good swimmer, could get in to a good pack on the bike because of that and chill, kick on in the run where he does very well in the heat

Yeah no mention of Chartier really. I was thinking of him. Plenty of mention of Sanders, Chartier has trained with him and (according to LS) often Sanders has struggled to keep up with him so he's obviously in decent shape. Plus he won Dallas in horrendous conditions. Not enough history/experience, perhaps, to say he might be a podium favourite, but at the very least, a dark horse. I'll go KB, Iden, Chartier.

Iden and KB are complete unknowns in Kona Lange isn't! At 9/1 it's a great value for money bet.

Worth a bet for sure. But you can't not mention Lange's previous drafting indiscretions when he came 3rd and won. He will most likely have to do the same i.e have a domestique and/or draft his arse off. It will be interesting to see how he rides. Also at least 4 pro women were pinged today, so perhaps the officials are clamping down on drafting?

There will be a bunch of weaker swimmers/uber bikers (Wurf/Kienle/Sanders) that will be behind Lange, but will come past him early on the bike. How does he respond?

Was wearing Asics Metaspeed, it looked like.
Only second full distance (first was her 2nd to Philipp at Hamburg in June).
Nominate relative new long distance women to join next year's @bmcprotri team to join/follow Sodaro and Matthews?

And became a mother 18 months ago. Up to this page 5 Sodaro was mentioned once, by you, as one in a duathlon with Haug, Moench and Philipp.
Amazing performance by Sodaro.

Even overcame several post partum issues during those 18 months

Youre right, sponsored by hoka on kit, raced in asics

Her coach Dan Plews held the amateur record for Kona

Hasn't raced in Hoyas since May. Ran Hamburg in Asics. Probably a kit issue with BMC not being able to manufacture updated kits fast enough.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I think the only way anyone beats the Norwegians is to both outswim and outrun them, or run within a couple minutes. The front pack on the bike needs to be strong and have a couple strong runners in it. I don’t think any of the bike specialists have a chance except Ditlev.

I guess one takeaway might be that a sensible athlete is prudent on their first full distance (not Iden or Blummenfelt though) and - the top drawer ones - then has a great second one where they are prepared to push the bike/run balance with more risk, and to run that first 20 miles with less fear. That's what Sodaro just did. Mathews did that at Florida 2020. More or less that's what Haug, Philipp and Ryf did too. I don't know if this reads across to the men, but if it does: Iden ftw.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/rankings/women

Am I the only one that thinks that the amount of penalties in the female´s race is going to affect the men´s race? I do not think we will see long trains... or we will see the guys quite spread... Some of them will try to go at the front to avoid trouble (Currie, Ditlev and the norwegians come to my mind)...so, we will see more gaps in t2 than expected. This is good for the uberbikers, so apart from Blum, I put my money on Skipper

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

It should affect the men's race! They should now know that the refs are enforcing the rules and maybe they will not be so quick to latch on to someone.

I would love for this to happen. I think everybody benefits from the “legal” drafting to some degree but some rely more than others.

where did you find lines? I have been looking everywhere.

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“The answer is hard work. What are you doing on Christmas Eve? Are you riding your bike? January 1st – are you riding your bike?”- Lance Armstrong

Skybet are taking bets on it.

Nope. Everyone was wrong.

So proud an American won. It's only been what?????? 26 years I think?

Asics metaspeed edge

I think Plews still holds the record?

When she came into the sport from running she did itu and was an usat crp athlete. I got to work with her in Clermont FL for a extended training camp just when she first started. She always had the run for this sport, just struggled with the S and B of itu demands. Which is pretty normal for those athletes. Itu is a meat grinder and when your funded “demands” on you can get intense.

She is reserved but soaks up info like a sponge. Pretty cool to see this success. I think she’s going to be one hell of an ambassador for “motherhood” athletes.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Why are you proud an American won?

Perhaps he's American. You know how Norwegians are happy when a Norwegian wins or Gremans are happy when a German wins.

It's been a long time since an American won and nobody was giving the US a shot in the women's or men's race. Now if Chartier wins tomorrow, it would completely disrupt the recent European dominance.

Why are you sour an American won?

I wasnt asking you.

What makes you think Im sour?

Questioning why someone is happy about something generally assumes you believe that they shouldn't be happy. Sour.

Bookies Odds (Skybet)

.Blum 7/4
.Iden 9/4
.Skipper 4/1
.Ditlev 6/1
.Sanders 8/1
.Lange 9/1
.Currie 10/1
.Chartier 10/1
.Hoffman 12/1
.Kienle 14/1
.Tim O 20/1
.Leiferman 25/1
.Bakkegard 28/1
.Hanson 28/1
.Wurf 33/1
.RVB 33/1
.McNamee 40/1

I think Chartier and McNamee are looking decent value for money EW bets.

You posted in a forum or nearly 100,000 people. You didn't send him a DM.

Chartier is the biggest question mark for me. I don’t follow the sport that closely but didn’t he basically come out of almost nowhere to win the PTO race this year? If he can do that he can podium Kona I’d think. Similar to Sodaro.

Definitely worth a punt at 10/1, McNamee has two podiums to his name at 40/1.

I didnt ask why someone was happy. RTFQ

Right because people who are proud about something are mad about it.

And became a mother 18 months ago. Up to this page 5 Sodaro was mentioned once, by you, as one in a duathlon with Haug, Moench and Philipp.
Amazing performance by Sodaro.


Seriously - Since Chrissie Wellington years ago, we have NOT seen anything like this. Sodaro was on few if any favorites lists. I had barely even heard of her - and now the added story-line, a recently new mother - living a somewhat "nomal" existence with her Firefighter Husband, in Davis, CA! (Wasn't Dave Scott originally from Davis - so maybe something going on with that?)

Solid, consistent racing with a strong run at the end closes the deal once again!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

My SINCEREST apologies for associating happy and proud.

He was planning to be racing on a 2nd hand rim brake Canyon bike :)
Would be awesome to have him place or win.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Those of us who paid attention to Chrissies results in Korea and Alpe d'Huez in 2007 had a pretty good idea she was going to be a champion. I was probably more tuned in than most because one of my former training partners did Korea in 2007.

Ya, there are always surprises which is why I never try to pick the winner, top three, etc. While it is nice that an American woman won, as a swimmer I was actually rooting for Lucy to lead from start to finish. Maybe some year she'll do that. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

He won Dallas on that didn't he? Has he got a new bike for Kona?

He appeared in Lionel's vlog workouts on that same bike, so I am assuming that he is racing on it tomorrow.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

How many female pros were pinged? And yup it should definitely affect the men's race. Rather than keep the 12m, i think the weaker bikers will still push the envelope and risk the penalty. It's either that or accept a top ten finish is going to be the best they can aim for. I don't think anyone can come in to T2 with a 6/7min deficit and still win.

As I said earlier there will be a group of uber bikers who will come out of the swim behind the lead pack (Sanders, Wurf, Kienle), I think Sanders said he was going to stick to SK in the swim, and they will work hard together to bridge the gap to the lead pack. What happens when they overtake the likes of Lange, does he jump on their wheel or just ride his own race? If he's there to podium, he (and others) will have no choice but to draft off the uber bikers, at least until the point they hit the front and perhaps the pace will ease? I'd imagine they would be putting down more than their average power to bridge the gap? And also they are not going to want a someone with Lange's run capability riding with them. I'd imagine if he is there and other weaker bikers are in the front pack, Sanders, Wurf, KB etc will work hard to drop them.

I counted 4 - Laura Philip and Lisa Norden and a couple of others.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Sarah Crowley was as well. She would have been a podium contender.

She won in ASIC Metaspeed’s :-)

Why does everyone seem to think Lange is the strongest runner in the field? He is NOT! Both Blummenfelt and Iden are clearly better. Skipper, Currie, Sanders, Chartier and a few others are all probably as good. Time to check your calendars, it is not 2019 anymore!

I believe he has a 2nd gen Trek Speed Concept, not Canyon. Not a slow bike. But does have rim brakes, oh the horror.

Philipp (DEU), Clarke (NZ), Norden (SWE), Crowley (AUS), I think, from watching and commentary and some splits checks.
Pleased to see that the American and British contingent (the two nations with most numbers, so randomly one might expect some of them to be 'got') were sufficiently disciplined not to receive a drafting penalty.
There is no doubt that the albeit small trains we saw yesterday are few and far between in normal races. Even in St George the groups split apart pretty quickly, into twos or the odd three for a few miles.

Sodaro and Moench rode to 90 miles together, with either Moench or Norden leading (Crowley into PT at 34 miles, and of course Norden then PT at Hawi, with Clarke joining her for a 'chat') and Sodaro rode back with Moench hanging on till 90 miles.
Ryf and Haug had Philipp pulling till she got a call to the mile 34 shade (to join Crowley). And much later Haug was left on her own (not sure of that but Ryf had accelerated away by then) and bled time to others even while burning her run matches.
Caveat propinquum secutor, and if your number is M15.

I love Sebi, but he has been far from an Uber biker this year. In fact, his run has been his best weapon lately. It will be interesting to see if Lionel tries to go with Wurf if close out of the swim or just decides to run his own race like he did in StG.

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Let food be thy medicine...

Braden said he is sick but will start

Bummer cos was hoping at least currie, chartier, magnus could surprise everyone....2 hopes left!

Blue man group will be out in force today. I still think Lange with prevail given his proven marathon in the heat.

Gustav Will flat or other mechanical… he dissed the Queen K.

Norwegians are going home disappointed, maybe devastated.

I expect we'll have a great day of racing.