I agree with you on the womens race. It looks like Ryf’s mini slump is over, she should still win if she’s at 80%. Would be surprised if someone not listed in those 5 gets on the podium.

The mens race is the most unpredictable for a long time. I’m picking either Blum or Iden to win, but neither has raced Kona so they may not look as invincible as normal. Lange and Ditlev are both a good chance. This is also probably the best chance of ever winning for the likes of Skipper, Currie, Sanders, McNamee and from what I saw in Dallas, Chartier. There’s a lot of potential champions, should be a great race to watch.

For the women I think Lucy is dropping down to 4-5 this year, I don't think she has the bike or run strength yet post-injury for a strong IM bike/run combo (judging from her last 2 races). I think Ryf, Philip, Haug, LCB, Matthews - dark horse pick of either Crowley or Heather Jackson for the podium (both look to be on the right track lately and Kona veterans).

No strong feelings on the men's race - I'd love to see Iden or KB rock it with a win the first time around, but Lange has the formula dialed and could sneak in with a victory.

Women's I agree with, there is just zero chance the winner is not one of those 5.

For the men's, hard to look past the Norwegians, but experience is against them. Has Ditlev been to Hawaii yet?

Yup the men's is wide open. I don't see Sander's making the top 5. And I think Ryf will podium, but not win. LCB to make the top 5, a little underdone to podium. I was going to say she didn't look great on the run in Dallas, but does anyone know how long she was riding without a battery? And did she not manage to hydrate properly after losing her bottles?

I don’t think he has. Due to his history, I’d have to say Lange has a pretty good chance. Now that his run strength is so well known, the strong bikers might try harder to drop him!

She said 2 laps stuck in the big gear.

Odd that Rudy von Berg isnt mentioned. I believe he has the potential to win. Based on previous achievements.

If Reece promises another dog if she podiums she might just find the strength to do so.

Let's hope all these athletes make it to the start line.
Frodeno and Brownlee lost to injury. Long lost to 70.3 main effort.
All the top women are still 'on'.
Chances of all 10 listed making it are slim.

i'll give my usual prediction for ryf: she either wins it going away, breathing through her nose, outriding half the men from about halfway through the bike, or else she never really factors at all and is barely top-10. i just don't see a world where she's duking it out for 2nd or 3rd.

the other thing i'd offer is that experience generally matters more at kona, so i'd watch out for wily veterans like crowley, TO, or kienle. late in the day they'll know how to close strong and ride out the ups and downs better than most, so i'd expect solid days from all.

as for lionel this year . . . no idea. can't figure that guy out.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

You find it odd that Rudy von Berg isn’t mentioned as a contender? Someone who raced his first full distance earlier this year, and has never raced Kona?

No disrespect to him, but I’d find it odd if he WAS mentioned.

WPRO favourites down to 4 (assumed) - very sad: three days before flying in from three weeks' heat acclimatisation in Houston (Woodlands).

Yes, what a weird year, this is starting to feel like the run up to St. George WC. Gutted for Kat. I would be surprised if everyone else made it to Kona. That being said I think Iden wins this one with Blum and Ditlev in an incredible race for 2nd.

I think Ryf wins it but Phillip should be able to give her a true run for her money. Unfortunately LCB is not on form for Kona yet. Maybe she will be on form for 70.3 WC's.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

And she still got the 2nd fastest bike split.

Lange is my favourite, weird how a two time Kona winner gets so little attention.

He's previously raced Kona with a domestique as well as blatantly drafting off others. One of his wins came after he got pinged twice and served two time penalties. He is a threat if he can do the same, but I would imagine there will be a few eyes on him and I'm guessing the time officials will be on the lookout for him as well.

In WPRO, other than Charles, none of the off-the-front swimmers will be there 6 hours later (best of those is Norden) so, on form, the other main contenders (but not Matthews now) will be together in a happy pack of their own. Then it'll be a 'duathlon' with Ryf (the fastest rider) and Haug the fastest runner, and Philipp, Moench and maybe Sodaro in between). Besides Charles, the untested (in a competitive full distance since her 4th at Kona in 2019) is Philipp. She successfully (legally) sucked Ryf's wheel in Dubai for 2+ hours. For 4:30+, doubtful, not least because Ryf must be close or past Charles by T2, and generate a decent gap at T2 on Philipp, and a bigger one on Haug. Charles keeps saying (in the loop adverts) that people have always doubted her. I suspect she'll doubt herself after 7 hours. Philipp and Haug are more predictable than Ryf and Charles (I assert).
https://www.ventusky.com/...&t=20221006/1500 (timings UTC so -10 for Hawaii)
MPRO: Is another reason (besides 70.3 focus) for Long not racing that he doesn't want to risk a good thrashing from Laidlow?

I can't see Charles-Barclay coming back that fast after her injury and making the podium. Running has always been her issue and after a injury bone injury its iffy.

Sanders will be ready. He is faster than Skipper and who know which "Lange" will show up?

Ryf and Lange for wins. Lange will be ready and will get it done.

Based on the workouts that Iden and Blu posted on Strava the other day, I'd say that they take 1 and 2 easily for men.
No idea about the women's race but if Ryf shows up like she did in StG then it will be a stomping.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Since Sanders has improved his swim, I'd have reckoned that Sanders is now a faster swimmer than Skipper. But in a duathlon Skipper is faster (unlike Laidlow). Together in the chase they might have the firepower to catch the front pack (what's left of it). We can look forward to the dance. But if they get to T2 together, I know who my money's on.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/...ipper/lionel-sanders

F Pro
Ryf
LCB
Haug
Phillip
Crowley

Mpro - if I could get odds on this top 5 it would pay big

Currie
Newman
Sanders
Drietz
Russel

Ryf will win without much of a challenge, especially with Kat out. If Sanders ever has a chance to win at Kona this might be the year. I still will pick Lange for the win.

i give you whatever odds you want for the male bet.