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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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So, what you're saying is that you didn't actually look at the Trek Whitepaper that Carl posted on the first page of the thread, right? The one with the whole supplementary section devoted to on-bike draft testing and comparison to wind tunnel and velodrome testing?

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Tom A. wrote:
Cobble wrote:
Tom Demerly wrote:


Here is a different one: Let's talk about Dimond Bikes.

Dimond has a huge opportunity here. They own the fastest bike split at Kona. Not Cervelo, not Trek, not Specialized, not Felt- Dimond. A little, brand new start-up company with a decidedly unconventional looking bike relative to the rest of the competitive set.

So, we have a different story to tell. Dimond bikes are likely pretty aerodynamic. I don't know for sure. But they may also offer an additional sales feature entirely absent from the rest of the competitive set. They are a beam bike. They have different ride characteristics. Could it be that part of the reason they are faster is that they do have different ride characteristics? What if there is some measurable physiological benefit from having the rider sit at the end of a beam as opposed to on top of a nearly vertical seat tube? If every major and some minor brands can argue a case that their bike is the most aerodynamic, when all of them except one are wrong, then it isn't much of a task (relatively speaking) to construct an argument that beam bikes are measurably faster. And, since Dimond is really the only beam bike widely available (isn't there another that looks like the bat-bike?) then it becomes the "desired outlier". It becomes the De Soto two-piece wetsuit of the bike world.


Interestingly I have a very different opinion. The fact that a rider on a Dimond bike had the fastest bike split means nothing. Except, this rider walked the marathon therefore either he had to work too hard (i.e. bike is not aero) or he simply came out with a strategy to have the fastest bike split without caring about the result of the triathlon he participated in.

Using this argument as evidence that a Dimond is fast is very weak to my opinion. Seriously, is that all you got, Dimond? I would put 100x more trust in the aerodynamic performance of a bike who's rider was 5 minutes slower on the bike but then won the race because he still had the legs to have a strong run. Because unlike what so many think, triathlon ends after the run, not after the bike.

As Rich Strauss has already said so many times: there's no such thing as a good bike followed by a bad run. And therefore, Twelsiek's run does not count as a good bike split at all.

You guys are all missing the point that this fast bike split was done on relatively low average power (275W IIRC?)...THAT is what implies the Dimond is FAST.
But you are missing the point that the guy couldn't run if his life depended on it... at the end of the day it doesn't matter if the winner pushed 275 watts or 250 or 300. He was ahead of the number two at the finish line and that's the only thing that matters. For all I know, the Dimond evidence proves that it beats up your body so much you can't get a decent run done despite not having to use as much energy on the bike as, say, Jan Frodeno's Canyon. A bike that gives you a shitty run isn't a good bike.


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Last edited by: Cobble: Oct 16, 15 19:42
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [fredly] [ In reply to ]
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fredly wrote:
So, what you're saying is that you didn't actually look at the Trek Whitepaper that Carl posted on the first page of the thread, right? The one with the whole supplementary section devoted to on-bike draft testing and comparison to wind tunnel and velodrome testing?

??? I did look at it. Ok, I didn't analyze it in detail, but it doesn't address my wind tunnel testing vs outdoor concerns adequately. I'm mostly fine with wind tunnel surrogating for velodrome, but that paper doesn't convince me that their wind tunnel results will be replicable and measurable in real world outdoors given all the outdoor factors that can dwarf the magnitude of their measured effect.
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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That basically sounds like a "no" answer to me, as the section of the whitepaper in question is 8 pages devoted almost entirely to a description of on-road testing modalities.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [fredly] [ In reply to ]
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fredly wrote:
That basically sounds like a "no" answer to me, as the section of the whitepaper in question is 8 pages devoted almost entirely to a description of on-road testing modalities.


If this is the whitepaper you're talking about,

http://cms.trekbikes.com/pdf/owners_manuals/MY16_Madone_whitepaper.pdf


it's a perfectly nice white paper, but I'm struggling to see where they convicingly prove that wind tunnel model captures or supersedes outdoor testing.


And even if they did, I don't change my tune - if you race outdoors, you test outdoors as the gold standard. You can't measure a significant, reproducible result outdoors, you can't say your bike is testing faster outdoors.
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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It's abundantly clear that you do, in fact, fail to see how this is so.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [fredly] [ In reply to ]
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fredly wrote:
It's abundantly clear that you do, in fact, fail to see how this is so.

This is as close as they get - from page 4:


CFD (computational fluid dynamics) using wind tunnel data


We rigorously calibrated CFD prior to the project frame analysis so that the computational results accurately portray the outputs of experiments. Choosing the correct turbulence model, fine tuning the model parameters, and conducting extensive mesh convergence studies are essential to accurately capture the flow dynamics around a bicycle. One of the calibration results comparing the wind tunnel drag vs. CFD drag on previous Madone is shown in figure 1. In this particular example, CFD accuracy is within 3% of the wind tunnel result.



That's not at all saying that their CFD or wind tunnel data is being validated as outdoor surrogates.

There is no mention anywhere in those first 8 pages how their models were validated against outdoor testing or even subjected to such.

They do finally do a real-world drafting test at the end, but this is a drafting test, not a frame comparison, and it's only a supplemental section. There are other technical setups to measure cornering, effect of brakes, etc., but this is a completely different issue than a claim that wind tunnel testing is a better standard than outdoor testing and doesn't address this issue at all.
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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OK, fine; you're right. With all the money companies like Trek are spending on testing - including on-road testing; we can all agree that they are doing on-road testing now, right? - they aren't doing exactly what you're asking for.

The question one should generally ask oneself in this type of a situation is "am I the smartest guy in the room, or do I just not know what the hell I'm talking about?"


ps - that stats terminology question you're conspicuously ignoring? It's not impertinent to an understanding of why your "Gold Standard" isn't.

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Last edited by: fredly: Oct 16, 15 20:36
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [fredly] [ In reply to ]
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fredly wrote:
OK, fine; you're right. With all the money companies like Trek are spending on testing - including on-road testing; we can all agree that they are doing on-road testing now, right? - they aren't doing exactly what you're asking for.

The question one should generally ask oneself in this type of a situation is "am I the smartest guy in the room, or do I just not know what the hell I'm talking about?"

Nice try again at deflecting from the original point with more ad hominem attacks.

I never tried to say "I'm the smartest guy in the room." If you want proof, look above, where I clearly agree with Tom A's later post where he tested it himself - I'm not out to prove I'm the smartest - I'm just pointing out the truth about testing if you really want to do it right.

I'm looking at all the 'white papers' from bike companies with a skeptical eye. They've got so much money, yet they can't produce a single field test a la Tom A or Dr. Coggan where they prove their engineered bike is faster outdoors than the competition, but they're happy to claim 'we've got the fastest wind tunnel tested bike' (Cervelo, at least.)


I'm not asking them to go above and beyond reasonable testing. I'm asking for perhaps the most obvious, low-cost testing method and to post the results publicly if their bike can do what they claim. Their glaring lack of having such data is very telling - it basically demands that you should view of what they're showing in that white paper as intentional obfuscation and unnecessarily complicating the situation in an effort to avoid showing the results of the simple test - line up the bikes, line up the riders, pace 'em out at 200 watts on a windless day outdoors, and show us the results. If their wind tunnel results are really that translatable to real world, let's see it. Tom A's test is the first I've seen that actually attempts to do this, and yes, his n=1 result suggests that you SHOULD be able to have a measurable difference between frames outdoors.

And like you, I'm not naive - you and I both know that they're testing the crap out of their bikes outdoors, right now. Many, many times over. So the next obvious question, which is the crux of my entire posting on this thread - why haven't we seen it? What are they hiding?
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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Sorry dude, claiming humility while (essentially) proclaiming "everyone is doing it wrong when they don't do it the way I want it" doesn't wash, nor is it fallacious to point this out. You agreed that Tom had done the thing that you said no one had done. Congrats. Humility would be doing the research necessary to understand the implications of what Tom did, and admitting that it kills your thesis, IE: tunnel tests & CFD have been well validated as reproducible in real world conditions, aren't subject to the most confounding variables present in field testing, and are found to be consistently reproduced. This is definitional of a test standard.

You don't understand what you're asking for and the reasons you aren't seeing it, which aren't to be found in black helicopters, rather in sound experimental practice.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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lightheir wrote:
fredly wrote:
OK, fine; you're right. With all the money companies like Trek are spending on testing - including on-road testing; we can all agree that they are doing on-road testing now, right? - they aren't doing exactly what you're asking for.

The question one should generally ask oneself in this type of a situation is "am I the smartest guy in the room, or do I just not know what the hell I'm talking about?"

Nice try again at deflecting from the original point with more ad hominem attacks.

I never tried to say "I'm the smartest guy in the room." If you want proof, look above, where I clearly agree with Tom A's later post where he tested it himself - I'm not out to prove I'm the smartest - I'm just pointing out the truth about testing if you really want to do it right.

I'm looking at all the 'white papers' from bike companies with a skeptical eye. They've got so much money, yet they can't produce a single field test a la Tom A or Dr. Coggan where they prove their engineered bike is faster outdoors than the competition, but they're happy to claim 'we've got the fastest wind tunnel tested bike' (Cervelo, at least.)


I'm not asking them to go above and beyond reasonable testing. I'm asking for perhaps the most obvious, low-cost testing method and to post the results publicly if their bike can do what they claim. Their glaring lack of having such data is very telling - it basically demands that you should view of what they're showing in that white paper as intentional obfuscation and unnecessarily complicating the situation in an effort to avoid showing the results of the simple test - line up the bikes, line up the riders, pace 'em out at 200 watts on a windless day outdoors, and show us the results. If their wind tunnel results are really that translatable to real world, let's see it. Tom A's test is the first I've seen that actually attempts to do this, and yes, his n=1 result suggests that you SHOULD be able to have a measurable difference between frames outdoors.

And like you, I'm not naive - you and I both know that they're testing the crap out of their bikes outdoors, right now. Many, many times over. So the next obvious question, which is the crux of my entire posting on this thread - why haven't we seen it? What are they hiding?

I think you're over-selling how easy it is to do the field testing properly (as Doc C. pointed out earlier), along with how limited the results can be (basically near zero yaw...unless using bike mounted wind measuring equipment with a "street value" of ~$15k-20k). Do you think it was inexpensive for Specialized to rent the Lowes Motor Speedway?

Let's put it this way: I'm a mechanical engineer who has done field testing AND has also participated in wind tunnel tests. If I was responsible for developing a new aerodynamic bicycle frame, I know exactly where I would go for the best and most efficient testing of the development models...and that would be in a wind tunnel...hands down. Yes, field testing has a lower entry cost, but it takes a LOT of effort and time to get results comparable to what is possible in a wind tunnel.

Here's another take...if field testing was a better and easier option, why were the guys at Specialized able to make the business case for building their own facility from scratch? Someone had to look at the ROI and agree it made sense, no?

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Nonsense, Tom.
They're all hiding something, and you're in on it.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Tom A. wrote:
lightheir wrote:
fredly wrote:
OK, fine; you're right. With all the money companies like Trek are spending on testing - including on-road testing; we can all agree that they are doing on-road testing now, right? - they aren't doing exactly what you're asking for.

The question one should generally ask oneself in this type of a situation is "am I the smartest guy in the room, or do I just not know what the hell I'm talking about?"


Nice try again at deflecting from the original point with more ad hominem attacks.

I never tried to say "I'm the smartest guy in the room." If you want proof, look above, where I clearly agree with Tom A's later post where he tested it himself - I'm not out to prove I'm the smartest - I'm just pointing out the truth about testing if you really want to do it right.

I'm looking at all the 'white papers' from bike companies with a skeptical eye. They've got so much money, yet they can't produce a single field test a la Tom A or Dr. Coggan where they prove their engineered bike is faster outdoors than the competition, but they're happy to claim 'we've got the fastest wind tunnel tested bike' (Cervelo, at least.)


I'm not asking them to go above and beyond reasonable testing. I'm asking for perhaps the most obvious, low-cost testing method and to post the results publicly if their bike can do what they claim. Their glaring lack of having such data is very telling - it basically demands that you should view of what they're showing in that white paper as intentional obfuscation and unnecessarily complicating the situation in an effort to avoid showing the results of the simple test - line up the bikes, line up the riders, pace 'em out at 200 watts on a windless day outdoors, and show us the results. If their wind tunnel results are really that translatable to real world, let's see it. Tom A's test is the first I've seen that actually attempts to do this, and yes, his n=1 result suggests that you SHOULD be able to have a measurable difference between frames outdoors.

And like you, I'm not naive - you and I both know that they're testing the crap out of their bikes outdoors, right now. Many, many times over. So the next obvious question, which is the crux of my entire posting on this thread - why haven't we seen it? What are they hiding?


I think you're over-selling how easy it is to do the field testing properly (as Doc C. pointed out earlier), along with how limited the results can be (basically near zero yaw...unless using bike mounted wind measuring equipment with a "street value" of ~$15k-20k). Do you think it was inexpensive for Specialized to rent the Lowes Motor Speedway?

Let's put it this way: I'm a mechanical engineer who has done field testing AND has also participated in wind tunnel tests. If I was responsible for developing a new aerodynamic bicycle frame, I know exactly where I would go for the best and most efficient testing of the development models...and that would be in a wind tunnel...hands down. Yes, field testing has a lower entry cost, but it takes a LOT of effort and time to get results comparable to what is possible in a wind tunnel.

Here's another take...if field testing was a better and easier option, why were the guys at Specialized able to make the business case for building their own facility from scratch? Someone had to look at the ROI and agree it made sense, no?

No, they built the wind tunnel because it's very good to help rapidly design and test prototypes.

You still have to test them outdoors after the prototypes are built. And no, field testing of the final prototype is very reasonable.
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [fredly] [ In reply to ]
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fredly wrote:
Sorry dude, claiming humility while (essentially) proclaiming "everyone is doing it wrong when they don't do it the way I want it" doesn't wash, nor is it fallacious to point this out. You agreed that Tom had done the thing that you said no one had done. Congrats. Humility would be doing the research necessary to understand the implications of what Tom did, and admitting that it kills your thesis, IE: tunnel tests & CFD have been well validated as reproducible in real world conditions, aren't subject to the most confounding variables present in field testing, and are found to be consistently reproduced. This is definitional of a test standard.

You don't understand what you're asking for and the reasons you aren't seeing it, which aren't to be found in black helicopters, rather in sound experimental practice.

NO, I'm seeing it pretty well.

In fact, YOU are then one who apparently misread pages 1-8 of the document, contrary to what I directly posted above.
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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lightheir wrote:
Tom A. wrote:
lightheir wrote:
fredly wrote:
OK, fine; you're right. With all the money companies like Trek are spending on testing - including on-road testing; we can all agree that they are doing on-road testing now, right? - they aren't doing exactly what you're asking for.

The question one should generally ask oneself in this type of a situation is "am I the smartest guy in the room, or do I just not know what the hell I'm talking about?"


Nice try again at deflecting from the original point with more ad hominem attacks.

I never tried to say "I'm the smartest guy in the room." If you want proof, look above, where I clearly agree with Tom A's later post where he tested it himself - I'm not out to prove I'm the smartest - I'm just pointing out the truth about testing if you really want to do it right.

I'm looking at all the 'white papers' from bike companies with a skeptical eye. They've got so much money, yet they can't produce a single field test a la Tom A or Dr. Coggan where they prove their engineered bike is faster outdoors than the competition, but they're happy to claim 'we've got the fastest wind tunnel tested bike' (Cervelo, at least.)


I'm not asking them to go above and beyond reasonable testing. I'm asking for perhaps the most obvious, low-cost testing method and to post the results publicly if their bike can do what they claim. Their glaring lack of having such data is very telling - it basically demands that you should view of what they're showing in that white paper as intentional obfuscation and unnecessarily complicating the situation in an effort to avoid showing the results of the simple test - line up the bikes, line up the riders, pace 'em out at 200 watts on a windless day outdoors, and show us the results. If their wind tunnel results are really that translatable to real world, let's see it. Tom A's test is the first I've seen that actually attempts to do this, and yes, his n=1 result suggests that you SHOULD be able to have a measurable difference between frames outdoors.

And like you, I'm not naive - you and I both know that they're testing the crap out of their bikes outdoors, right now. Many, many times over. So the next obvious question, which is the crux of my entire posting on this thread - why haven't we seen it? What are they hiding?


I think you're over-selling how easy it is to do the field testing properly (as Doc C. pointed out earlier), along with how limited the results can be (basically near zero yaw...unless using bike mounted wind measuring equipment with a "street value" of ~$15k-20k). Do you think it was inexpensive for Specialized to rent the Lowes Motor Speedway?

Let's put it this way: I'm a mechanical engineer who has done field testing AND has also participated in wind tunnel tests. If I was responsible for developing a new aerodynamic bicycle frame, I know exactly where I would go for the best and most efficient testing of the development models...and that would be in a wind tunnel...hands down. Yes, field testing has a lower entry cost, but it takes a LOT of effort and time to get results comparable to what is possible in a wind tunnel.

Here's another take...if field testing was a better and easier option, why were the guys at Specialized able to make the business case for building their own facility from scratch? Someone had to look at the ROI and agree it made sense, no?

No, they built the wind tunnel because it's very good to help rapidly design and test prototypes.

You still have to test them outdoors after the prototypes are built. And no, field testing of the final prototype is very reasonable.

Except test after test after test (ad infinitum) has shown that the wind tunnel results tell you as much, if not more, about real world performance than the most elaborate field testing. It's been proven redundant.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Well then we definitely disagree here. If we're dealing with differences so small that they're so difficult to reliably measure outdoors in racing conditions, I absolutely want outdoor data, even if it is 'redundant.'

From the lack of bike companies providing such data, I strongly suspect it's not going to just say the same thing they found in the wind tunnel. I'd be happy to be proven wrong!
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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The part that you seem to be missing is that outdoor testing is actually less applicable to real world riding than the wind tunnel, because of the limitations of what can be tested outdoors.

The problem as it stands is that people can't compare 2 different tests in any meaningful manner.

Think of it this way. The wind tunnel is a fancy ruler. I should be able to take one ruler, measure something with it, and you take your ruler, and measure something with that, and we will know which something is bigger or smaller, because those rulers are produced to a known standard. We can guess, if someone tests against a p5 and another tests against a p5, we can make some inferences on a gross scale, but not at a fine scale. So if I'm deciding between a crap bike and a good one, I can probably rile out the crap one. If I'm trying to decide between 2 pretty good bikes, most papers don't even present enough data within that one paper to really trust the conclusions. Like if you had a ruler, but the markings only went as fine as 1". If you tell me that my phone has a 4" screen with that ruler, I just know that it is somewhere between 3" and 5".

Then trying to compare different white papers is next to impossible.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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Tom Demerly wrote:
So, we have a different story to tell. Dimond bikes are likely pretty aerodynamic. I don't know for sure. But they may also offer an additional sales feature entirely absent from the rest of the competitive set. They are a beam bike. They have different ride characteristics. Could it be that part of the reason they are faster is that they do have different ride characteristics? What if there is some measurable physiological benefit from having the rider sit at the end of a beam as opposed to on top of a nearly vertical seat tube? If every major and some minor brands can argue a case that their bike is the most aerodynamic, when all of them except one are wrong, then it isn't much of a task (relatively speaking) to construct an argument that beam bikes are measurably faster. And, since Dimond is really the only beam bike widely available (isn't there another that looks like the bat-bike?) then it becomes the "desired outlier". It becomes the De Soto two-piece wetsuit of the bike world.

Titanflex are still in business, they most probably have the greatest bounce, coupled with known durability, but don't have much market share or competitors which would validate that approach.
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
The part that you seem to be missing is that outdoor testing is actually less applicable to real world riding than the wind tunnel, because of the limitations of what can be tested outdoors.

The problem as it stands is that people can't compare 2 different tests in any meaningful manner.

Think of it this way. The wind tunnel is a fancy ruler. I should be able to take one ruler, measure something with it, and you take your ruler, and measure something with that, and we will know which something is bigger or smaller, because those rulers are produced to a known standard. We can guess, if someone tests against a p5 and another tests against a p5, we can make some inferences on a gross scale, but not at a fine scale. So if I'm deciding between a crap bike and a good one, I can probably rile out the crap one. If I'm trying to decide between 2 pretty good bikes, most papers don't even present enough data within that one paper to really trust the conclusions. Like if you had a ruler, but the markings only went as fine as 1". If you tell me that my phone has a 4" screen with that ruler, I just know that it is somewhere between 3" and 5".

Then trying to compare different white papers is next to impossible.

No, I understand fully well. I understand testing complex situations and both the limitations and ways to work around it. I'm not asking for perfection - I'm asking for ANY results.

And my point again is that I wouldn't be making such a big fuss over this if the magnitude was big enough to be readily measured outdoors, like with aerobars. I'm making a fuss precisely because here's a product that cannot be reliably measured by faster outdoors, yet its claimed through expensive and fancy testing that 'it is'.

If you tried to sell me a drug that lowered my blood pressure, but I was unable to measure that blood lowering effect without using some $10,000 blood pressure device instead of the regular BP cuff, I'd be skeptical. Similar with any product that seems to require some super high cost, exclusive controlled environment test to show a difference, yet claims to work in the 'real world', outside that environment. I'd definitely want validating proof it works in the real world in this case, which is why I'm demanding to see it in this case, ESPECIALLY if the wind tunnel is such a reliable, good model for outdoor testing. If it's that good, show us the data. Any data!
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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But it can be measured as faster outdoors, and is. It is just much more difficult to put solid numbers there, and the numbers are going to be less reliable than in the ones from the tunnel, which means they will then have to explain those differences.

A tunnel isn't magic. It's just a fancy ruler. Air inside the tunnel is the same as air outside the tunnel.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
But it can be measured as faster outdoors, and is. It is just much more difficult to put solid numbers there, and the numbers are going to be less reliable than in the ones from the tunnel, which means they will then have to explain those differences.

A tunnel isn't magic. It's just a fancy ruler. Air inside the tunnel is the same as air outside the tunnel.

And again, I would LOVE for you to be right. But I want to see the numbers. Any numbers.

The lack of such data, when it really should be straightforward to measure (albeit not as precise - I'm ok with that), is a glaring omission. I unfortunately am a skeptic when companies make self-interested scientific claims, and I see all the wind tunnel and CFD gymnastics as attempts to obfuscate what should be a very straightforward measurement.

Anybody who knows statistics knows that with enough sample sizes, you can tease apart even the smallest differences (standard error, sample size is in the denominator) and something this straightforward lends itself extremely well to repeat outdoor testing.
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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The other thing to remember is that outdoor testing is only good a zero yaw. IIRC, a lot of good aero frames are pretty similar at zero yaw, same with wheels. They diverge at non zero yaw, which can't be reliably measured outside without some seriously expensive testing equipment.

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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With the number of variables to be controlled that can't be measured properly outdoors, the sample size would be ginormous.

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2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly
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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [lightheir] [ In reply to ]
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It's kinda like in swimming terms, who's faster, phelps or leclos. But you put each of them in pools in the ocean subject to currents and waves, you let the salinity and temperature vary considerably without measuring it, you change the height of the starting blocks, the pool is "roughly" 50m long, but you aren't quite sure because each wall is free floating.

How many trials do you need to run to get a meaningful number?

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Re: How Much Credibility do you Assign to Bike Brand Wind Tunnel Claims? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
With the number of variables to be controlled that can't be measured properly outdoors, the sample size would be ginormous.

No, it wouldn't.

Do you seriously think testing how fast a bike frame outdoors is more complex than testing medications across a range of human patients in the public? Yet that's what exactly medical drug and clinical trials do - across expansive populaces and across many different disease types. It doesn't always work, but it is effective enough that it is a critical point in medical testing to acknowledge that even if you can prove a 'statistically significant result p<.0005', the small magnitude of the finding is clinically irrelevant.

To someone like me, all these claims of 'wow, outdoor bike testing to tease out real world-outdoor frame differences' are just handwaving in the face of the very possible, if not likely reality, that there is essentially no measurable difference in speed between these frames once you're in an outdoor, noncontrolled racing environment.

Gear that has a measurable difference, like aerobars, don't suffer from such problems, precisely because the magnitude is greater.

If the magnitude of the difference is so small that it's undetectable in race-like conditions, and requires a $100k wind tunnel to detect it, the most likely explanation is that the aero effect is so little that it is meaningless in the face of real world variables.
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