Spot on! How could you not see a difference between whats required on a hard ITU bike leg dictated by the Brownlee's and an IM bike leg?

Yes I was at least expecting this to go down the usual Gomez V Ali road wasn't expecting LS name thrown in so early.

I think Brownlee and Gomez are similar swimmers, that could go either way when fit.

I would take Brownlee over Gomez on the bike anytime. Brownlee stayed away from Sanders and Kienle twice last year in middle distance races. I would give Brownlee 2-5 minutes on Gomez over 90k.

I think over a half marathon, I'd expect Gomez to beat Brownlee on the run. Not by too much, but he has already run a sub1:10, whereas Brownlee hasn't be close (yet). I'd give it to Gomez by a minute in cold conditions, more in warm conditions.

It doesn't sound like he will be pushed in Dubai if Bozzone isn't racing, so he might cruise it around for a win. The 70.3 worlds will be interesting though!

I would say I think Alistair is a slightly better swimmer, and agree on the bike, but only if he was pushed or had some real incentive to go fast.
As for the run, I think it is too early to say, Alistair is a better 10k runner which usually translates to the HM, but he has yet to try and run a fast one. In St George he cruised a 1:14.
Too bad Bozzone isn't racing. I would love to see Patrik wrestle with Ali on the run, but he will have to push hard on the bike for that to happen.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

If/when Brownlee and Gomez race 70.3 they'd exit the water together, on the toes of whoever leads the swim out. Can't see one putting time into the other.

Brownlee a stronger cyclist, and on a TT in a paceline he'd pull away from Gomez.

Gut feel says Gomez is the better HM runner - Brownlee has had issues in the heat, he's mentioned nutrition issues and having to manage the run (St George), injuries may yet slow him, not sure his on the toes style is as suited to longer runs and he simply hasn't put down the 70.3 run splits around 1:10 that Gomez has already.

If they exited T2 together I'd be on Gomez for the win, but chances are Brownlee would have enough from the bike to hang on.

The two big unknowns are how has Ali recovered from the serious injury last year, and how much will Gomez come on, now that he's fully committed to long course, not just lobbing a couple of 70.3's into a season loaded with ITU training and racing.

It'll be intriguing for sure...

Jonny has had issues in the heat, Alistair has handled heat well as long as he has had time to acclimatisize.
He has also only really run one 70.3 so like I said, way too early to draw any conclusions about his HM capability. 1:10 is slow for a 28:30 runner, I would expect his open HM to be sub 1:03-1:04 so have no doubt about him being able to run 1:10 if he wants/needs to.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

I’m sure fjäll running could be a thing...

I think in the pool JG would utterly thrash AB but in OW they are pretty much even. This has always confused me, as on paper JG has a faster 1500m Free time than Varga. Maybe he chooses to conserve in the OW.

On the bike I agree AB could prob take 3 mins out of JG on a good day. But JG will cut that difference with the extra bike work he'll no doubt be putting in. AB has less room for improvement as he has been consistently putting 18-20 hours weeks on the bike.

The big question is are ABs 28:30 10k days over? The evidence would suggest yes. And because of that I'd agree with people who think JG could take up to a min out of him on the run.

Actually think varga is 2s faster in 1500 going 15:33 against Gomez 15:35. Either way he is fast in the pool but slower in ow. Either by choice or not.

I disagree on Alistairs improvement as his training hasn’t been steady state biking as is called for in 70.3.
Also, what is the evidence that his 28:30 days are over? I think he could have run low 28 in his rio shape!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

It's tough to say how much of a benefit the Brownlees have had from training and racing with their own swimming super-domestique in Varga as well. Obviously I'm not saying that Varga's just been there to work for them, but I think it's fair to say that they have a well-drilled routine of lining on the same side of the pontoon and hammering the swim that's benefitted them and left Gomez (and others) adrift on many an occasion.

It'll be interesting to see how Alistair fares in 70.3 when he'll be relying purely on his own efforts and/or forging new alliances, not to mention the longer distances.

Really looking forward to some of the racing, it's just a shame that so little of it will be available to actually watch.

But he did specific 10k training to try to qualify for the Commonwealth games 10,000m but failed to run 28low, why would he manage it when triathlon training?

He didn't run at his best in any race last year that I can see. Even in Leeds he had the 4th fastest run in a fairly weak field. In Super League he was dropped badly on every run, in his middle distance races, he ran well in Gran Canaria and St George, but not top world class level. In Samorin he fell apart immediately.

I hope he still has it, but I think he has to prove it again after more than a year without a top notch run.

No, he was planning on doing specific 10k training during the winter of 04 but had injury issues so he decided to skip the double and focus on tri.
He also only ran one 10000m at Stanford and would likely have improved a lot the second time, and with a deeper field.
He had injury issues last year so hard to talk about his form, but Leeds is the wrong race to bring up. He ran as fast as he needed to too win, as he always does.
He was feeling terrible both at super league and samorin so again, impossible to draw any conclusions from those races about his 10k shape.
To add to this, he is generally a bit more flat post Olympics which is quite understandable.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

I think that's true to an extent but his base is no doubt much larger than JG given his regular 500-700km weeks vs JG's max of 400km.

Also just look at ABs run form leading into Rio. He certainly was in sub 29 shape but given some results in domestic run races and his injury record he wasn't anywhere near 28:30.

Where are you getting the info about his running shape? He won Stockholm and Leeds before rio but never went 100% at any race as the entire season was built around peaking at rio.
And please tell me how you are able to assess from his results that he can run sub 29 but not 28:30

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

I base this on the fact that he and Johnny did 5x800m in 2:05 in the lead up to Rio. Before London AB was hitting around 2:03 for the same session. And Johnny was giving him a bit of a pasting generally leading up to Rio and ran 14 dead for 5km on the road. So based on his Rio performance I reckon he was in 28:45-50 shape. I also believe he was 2nd in the North of England XC champs in 2016 but could be wrong.

I’ve never read about that session, and although 5x800 is a poor indicator of 10k shape, I agree he probably wasn’t as fast is his London shape. However I think he could have run a lot faster than 28:30 in 2013 if he had gone in a few faster races and practiced running track more. Therefor I still think he was in 28:30 shape 2016.
I think it was 2015 in xc when he was 2nd to Andrew Davies, don’t believe he ran in 2016.
Well if Jonny ran 14 on the road, that would be a 13:5x on the track, and since alistair was faster he could have been in 13:45/28:30 shape which would make Jonny in 28:4x shape.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

It was in Armagh so very quick course but yeh prob worth 13:53-55. I honestly think in a stand alone 10000m on the track in 2016 the difference between AB and JB would be minimal but thats just a feeling nothing to back it up. AB is just that bit stronger off a hard bike. Malcolm Brown reckoned AB was in 28:20 shape in 2013 if he had the right preparation.

Since 2014 AB has made sure that races have been won on the bike. I would love to see his bike data from 2012 up to the present as I think there would be a significant improvement. This is evident by many more breaks sticking.

In 2012 I don't think anyone would worry him on the run should the come to T2 in a big bunch. I don't think you can say that now especially over the sprint distance.

He's most definatly doing this race, just posted a vid on Instagram saying he's about to get on the flight.

Does he have Kona plans for 2018? This is probably the best year for him if he wants to do 2020?

He mentioned doing a bit of long course although as far as im aware he's still in Englands Commenwealth games team for Oly distance.

I can't see him doing Iron distance and Oly in the same year. (Not with his track record of injury)

Well it seems as though he's still planning on racing a fair bit of Olympic distance this season. The ITU website is reporting that both Brownlees will be competing at the first WTS race in Abu Dhabi at the start of March, then as you say, the Commonwealth Games in mid-April (with both individual and mixed relay events) and I think it's fairly certain he'll be back at ITU Leeds again at the start of June.

Then there's the 70.3 World Champs, so I can't see him squeezing in Kona as well, even if he could qualify for it.

It would do him no harm to race Kona for the experience this year I suppose if he was to qualify. He could have a better crack of it next year. Knowing what to expect, having a better understanding of nutrition etc.

I doubt his ego is going to turn up to something like that knowing he's not confident or in perfect shape of winning, especially if Gomez is lining up next to him.

He does not seem like the person who lines up if he for experience. I recon he will do oly and 70.3 this year and then decide on Tokyo or Kona.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

"It was in Armagh so very quick course but yeh prob worth 13:53-55."

I'm not sure the course is "very quick" as it appears to be won in 13:50/14:00 by runners that are low 13:xx 5k runners. I think it better to say that the standard is high for a 'domestic' race. I haven't raced this one but my son is racing it next month so will await this feedback.

He has said this year the same thing he said last year: 70.3 to end of 2018 then a decision between Kona or Tokyo. Nothing has really changed.

I'd put money on Tokyo, with a second chance of a Gold, racing with his brother and strong GB women in the relays as strong favourites. He'll find that sort of racing far more interesting, and logically he could still think he has a shot at Kona after Tokyo, whereas he must know 2024 is unrealistic.