Its been said that the reason why dominant juniors tend to underperform is that they are typically relying too much on their physical gifts and dont hone other skills- such as bike handling/tactics from young.

I can see merit in this. If as a teen you happen to be an early developer physically then you will crush everyone easily by just TT-ing off the front every race. This doesnt give you the chance to learn how to contest a bunch sprint effectively, how and when to attack at the right time, how to develop other weapons in your arsenal- descending skills, wheel surfing skills, etc... this puts the rider in trouble later on when everyone catches up physically, because then he has a limited skillset as compared to everyone else.

I can see that happen to evenepoel unfortunately. Limited cycling background, mainly wins by TTing off the front and just having a massive engine (understandable since he came from a pro soccer background, which is no cakewalk fitness wise). Either he picks up more skills from joining quick step or he will be in trouble later.

Of course, if he has a massive enough engine nothing else matters...

Apparently the pro futbol clubs include PSV Eindhoven and Anderlecht: the former a perennial Dutch powerhouse that has won the European Cup (annual tournament where the champions/top teams of each European country compete), the latter the most successful team in Belgium. He also played as an outside (defensive) back, which is perhaps the most physically demanding position on the pitch, as such players has to cover grounds from one end of the field to the other, often sprinting forward to join the attack or backward to help the defense. That's where the engine is from. Apparently, his latest transfer is from Anderlecht to a lesser-known Belgian team. I guess that's perhaps when he saw the light and realized he might not have as big of a future there.

He's also apparently supremely confident, to the point of being cocky. Someone remarked that he didn't thank his teammates and coaches in his post-race interview. Perhaps the exuberance of youth, but one has to have those things kept in check sooner or later, as this is a team sport. A bit surprised that someone from a team sport background would overlook such things.

Good point. Handling and tactics are really other talents entirely vs physical ability. In the elites, physical ability alone is never enough. It's also a big mental adjustment for a junior who is accustomed to winning everything easily, to suddenly being crushed in races.

I think Evenepoel will have no issue with handling though. Being a soccer player means he has agility and coordination. An in the Belgian races, he'll get plenty of practice.

Alaphilippe certainly seems to be the right rider in the right form for this course. Will be interesting to see if he gets marked out.

I'm really interested to see how Nibbles goes. Was he hiding his form and/or religiously adhering to the strategy of using the Vuelta as training? As a greater climber/descender, and a performer in long one-day races (MSR), he seems to have all the tools to excel here, but his form is a real question mark... and he did fracture his vertebrae just over 2 months ago... not sure how that might impact things.

Roglic and Kwiato are the other two who seem like obvious contenders to me. I think Valverde is still going to be feeling the Vuelta.

Would love to see Rusty Woods contend here, but IMO he'd need a punchy uphill finish, he's not a good descender and I don't think he can contest a flat finish like this. Also will be interesting to see how much team tactics play into this, as Canada only has four guys and I think Rob Britton, despite being the only non-world tour guy, can probably be the best domestique for Woods on this course.

I've sent this exact message to USA Cycling and will do so again every week for the next two years.

Second coming of Fabian in U23 race?

Will be interesting to see what happens in women’s race. Not sure sure I’d count Sagan out given how it unfolded today.

Just saw the end of that race on USA Cycling's FB feed. Pretty cool, I'm assuming that's available for all but the men's races due to likely media regulations. Strong attack on the final downhill there.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If this were the course on Sunday, absolutely. But that 3km of brutish-gradient climbing? Maybe if Sagan teams up with GvA and go OTF, so they can climb that final hill with enough of a cushion. But anything could happen...

As for tomorrow, I'm so inclined just naming the Dutch team for the top-5: Van Vleuten, Vos, Anna VdB, Brand, and Pieters. But jest aside, i'll go with

Van Vleuten, Vos, Moolman-Pasio
Anna VdB and Niewiedoma

Vleuten is enjoying quite the resurgence at the age of 35. Granted, she was a known quantity before these past few years, having won RvV, but she's been dominant. VdB has been so strong yet lacks that World Champion's jersey. At least the Dutch team doesn't appear dysfunctional, and I'm sure they'll support whoever's up the road


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btw, anyone else on Zwift finds it cool that you know almost exactly what the course is like? Thought that was quite neat when I recognized the features and landmarks

I have seen a bunch of interviews after the race with the Belgian tv channel Sporza and he made sure to thank the entire team a bunch of times. They also interviewed that team and they said they were happy to ride for him. All of them mentioned the work the coach did to make this a team effort. They also interviewed Wilfried Peeters from QS who also said they will not be going for a full 70-80 race days but take it easy with rest periods. They know very well not to just burn up this kind of talent.

I can see why you say he's cocky but he also explicitly says time and again that he is just starting and has a lot to learn when turning pro. I'd be extremely confident too if I was almost 2 minutes behind with 60k to go and just know that by riding at an ok effort I'd return to the front group ready to still attack.

PS: I hear people say pro soccer (football, whatever) players are extremely fit. While I will not contest this, I do know it is definitely not true for all of them. I've seen enough pro players jog to know they will not be winning any running races soon. One of my cycling buddies almost made the first pro league in Belgium and is very honest about that. But I'd be willing to bet that this guy indeed with his position and apparent focus probably was running really well.

thanks for chiming in; serves me right to go from a 2nd hand source (someone who said s/he watched the entire Sporza interview segment)

btw, great user name. Wonder how many figures out that cycling is mentioned in your user name

I saw an interesting interview with Tom Boonen that really made sense to me. He is going to need to learn how to race. Right now, he's not racing, he's just riding hard and nobody can follow him. He is literally a man among boys. He won't be able to get away with that in the pro ranks and his ability to learn and adapt to tactics will be a big key to whether he succeeds or not. I think he's going to a very good place to learn all of that, but it will probably take some work. I've seen lots of guys fly up the ranks by riding away and winning all of their lower category races and then struggle in the elites where everybody is pretty strong.

It will be fun to watch.

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Kevin

http://kevinmetcalfe.dreamhosters.com
My Strava

I got to watch both junior races last night. Both were great watches...especially the junior women race. I know they are just kids, but man...Italy really botched both races. Cool to see the Americans in the mix in the junior mens race.

I can see how this would be true...but from my sample size of 1 race watching this kid, it was more than his engine that impressed me. The instant he realized he needed a rear wheel, he stayed very calm. It was only after about 30 seconds where mechanics were helping everyone but him holding his rear wheel in the air did he start to show some panic. Then he calmly made his way up the field, and once he crested the climb...instead of pressing on in TT mode, he let a group reform with one of his teammates and sat in the back. When the groups eventually came together and he realized 2 guys were up the road...again...he didn't panic. He let his teammates set the tempo and just sat there even though he could have just dropped the whole group and TT'd his way back up to the leaders. It was only when the Americans attacked did he decide to make the final move to bridge up.

That German kid though...I think I was more happy for him coming in second more than anything else. What guts.

The TSS accumulation will be significant in this race, so much so i think it will level the playing field and keep things in check. Anybody who is carrying fatigue will be found out at the end. The descent was quite interesting in the U23 race. Sagan could get dropped but get back on before the finish. I do think Roglic, Moscon, Kiwato, Valverde, or Ala will win. If Sagan pulled off a win on this course we might as well give him a GOAT.

For sure. He's winning on talent but that alone won't get it done in big leagues. I bet it'll also be a little humbling to show up at camp with jr world champ stripes and be surrounded by guys like Gilbert, Alaphillipe, Gaviria, etc.

Once again Boonen speaks the truth. The phenom jumps up a level and he will get schooled. No substitute for lots of racing. US wunderkinds especially don't get enough.

I think it would be cool to develop an app for "pick up racing" like pick up hoops so that instead of a Zwift or group noodle ride, one could find a few other psychos ready to scrimmage somewhere nearby for 90 minutes. Then beers, of course. No app for that.

Screenshotting this post in case it takes off. Don't want to get Zuckerberged.

Isn't that just going to your local shop ride and turning it into XXXday worlds?

If you're looking for something more random, then your app needs to have the excuses built in for easy responses...

"Sorry, it's my recovery week"

"Coach said today is supposed to be an easy day"

"My legs are fried, I did 200k yesterday"

Thanks.

Some added value to this post: just saw a post on facebook where someone posted results from Remco Evenepoel doing a half marathon in Brussels. As a 16 year old. This is not the flattest half marathon (but also not the toughest) and he did 1h16 and finished 13th. So the kid indeed has a bit of a running engine as well.

Exactly, it's Wednesday Night Worlds 2 or 3 days a week.

Alright, time to pick. Really want to go with Kwiato but wonder how much is left in tank physically and psychologically; TD is a glaring example, looking hollowed out from long year.

Thus, I’m going with:
Alaphilippe
Old Man Valverde
Kwiato

Wild cards are Sagan and Nibali because you never really know with those two.

I'm going Alaphilippe, Lopez, Roglic if they ride it hard.
Sagan if they hesitate and look at each other.

haha, the Dutch were just toying with everyone else

hammer dropping time

everyone can go back to bed now; set your alarm for 1 hr. Anna VdB to be crowned World Champion unless something awful happens on the descent

Anybody watch the start? Crazy how there were some women in the race that were dropped pretty much as soon as the flagged drop. Some poor girl from Albania didn't even have a kit, looked like she was dressed in some rec rider's gear.

For tomorrow

Alaphilippe, Simon Yates, Kwiatkowski
Martin, Valverde