Guess we'll find out in a few days......................really hope he's fit & injury free, would love to see him duking it out with the big guns on the weekend!

Absolutely. We wont know until halfway through the run Im thinking. Expect him to swim and bike in the lead but in the end it comes down to the second half of the run.

Seen him doing a bit of running on his socials, usually when he's not run fit you don't see any.

exactly.

i thnk ali could roll out of bed and lead out most swims. and his bike is usually there, and if it isn't he's always willing to turn himself inside out anyway. can't fake it on the run, though . . . he's either got it or he doesn't

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

True however it is a long way to travel (assuming he's in the UK) if you are not feeling confident. AB must be very aware of his chances so until he withdraws I'll assume he is ready to rumble! Would just love to seem him smash the rest on the run like back in the day!

believe me, i'd absolutely love it too.

however: i think a few years back he saw a handful of big races that he could have won (for instance st george and sub-7) and felt like opportunities were passing him by. so he's resolved to start every race he can and have more fun. so he did that string of challenge races in the fall even though he wasn't quite 100%.

this could be another "test race" for him where he's feeling out his recovery, or it could be a full-gas effort. desperately want to see him on all cylinders again - between the injuries/illness/mechanicals for him, javi, and jan, i feel like we've been robbed of some epic competitions.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Was thinking this earlier, if Ali wins this and sort of looks like the Alistair of old, the 'he's only won cos no Frodo or Norwegians' shouts are guaranteed.

Pretty sure I read that he’s scheduling the first half to be easier and then the second to be more competitive.

Prediction is leading all day then being passed at 15k

Said he felt good, didn't think he went out too fast on the run or the bike, the heat just got to him in the end, he hasn't always had the best relationship with the heat.

Most importantly, he's not injured!!

Not far off.

Well not injured yet. Let's hope he recovers well.

He just loves to race. Its who he is and he tried again yesterday. Now the hard part, staying injury free for a while!

Seems like AB just blew up. I think its safe to say that he went out too hard. Wonder why he just doesnt take it down a notch and atleast try another race tactic.

I watched the replay especially the part out of T2. A young kid like Detlev knows what pace he can go out at over a 3 hrs event and had it dialed in. At only point (I think 6 km in) Alistair almost had a minute lead on the chase. That means he was going 10 seconds per km faster than the entire field. This was not neccessary. Once the bungee to Sam Laidlaw snapped he could have dialed it back to the pace he was running "with Sam". When he was tearing it up that hard, all of us cheering for Alistair were saying, "I hope his 2024 body can keep up with his London Olympics 2012 brain" (or even Rio)

I wonder if the men would have raced last he'd have been able to hold on.

If the heat got to him, he went out too hard. Everyone (other than maybe Alistair) knows that you can't run the same pace in a sauna as inside a climate controlled cool indoor track. Part of dealing with the heat is dialing the pace. Clearly Ditlev who DID come off the bike with Alistair, and generates more heat per second at the same run pace as Alistair on account of being a bigger human being figured this out. I'm a fan of Alistair and was really cheering for him to dial it back once he had his lead and just pace it in.

In his interview after the women's race, he said he felt comfortable. He surmised that he didn't heat prep enough (silly) but seemed to be good physically which is great.

One thing I noticed that was positive in my eyes - Ali always ran WAY too much on his toes for long distance tri - which has led to injuries and in race cramping over the years. His running style was actually changed - much more midfoot, dare I say slight heel strike, and way less of a short distance run stride. That actually gave me a little hope for his future and health in this series. We did a watch along on the Daily Tri youtube channel and I pointed this out to Tim Heming who had a great point - Ali's partner Ruth Astle has been working with Lawrence Van Lingerdon (sp?) for the last few weeks and might have also been working with Alistair - could possibly have either helped or led to some changes.

But yes - he makes pacing mistakes almost every race, and I truly hope that he figures it out. He seemed to try to play this one well...I don't think he took one pull from Mathis, and never looked uncomfortable, but the heat on the run just fried him. On to Singapore he said - so we will see if it's lesson learned or we have similar discussions on here.

---

DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

In his interview after the women's race, he said he felt comfortable. He surmised that he didn't heat prep enough (silly) but seemed to be good physically which is great.

-------

I think one of the big things is that the 1st time you actually are in "hot condditions" like real world at the beginning of the season, I dont care if you "heat prep" by sitting in a sauna etc, there's just something to that 1st time you race and if you aren't "careful" you melt in the heat. This happened day prior with KZ. She lives where I live, we have temps in the 40's and maybe 50's, there's no "heat acclimation" to be ready for that unless again you do the indoor heater / sauna prep...but again I think that still doesn't help you the very 1st time you race in the "heat"....Again it always amounts to "I felt great, didn't overwork myself, drank on the bike...." yet still ended up DNF or whatever position AB finished in (top 5?).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Interested if you'd still take that bet that Ali won't win another big race again?

The fact he's been as injury free as he's been since Rio I think fills me with optimisim, however he's obviously older than he's ever been. I think he's probably wanting to race more than he's done for years this year due to this T100.

I actually think this new series is all wrong for him and his glass ankles, I still think he's good for about 3 big races a year, I'd like to see him do Kona and 70 3 Worlds as his main focus.

He’s winning one of the T100 races this season. Hell he could have won this one without the insane pacing to distance everyone in the first 3k. This is just the way he races so I’m not sure he will change but I think he’ll be able to hang on in one of these.

So I think we made that bet on the assumption that the T100 wasn't even a thing, so sure you win Jackets- AB will most certainly win a T100 race, if you are calling every T100 series " big race" we'll just agree to disagree.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If you'd have switched the mens race with the women's and cooler conditions, there's a chance he could have hung on, the key is obviously staying injury free, if he does and he gets his run fitness close to where it ever was, he's easily capable of winning whatever he wants to.

Fair point, I'm still not sure any of these T100 will suit him course/heat wise, also don't know what ITU athletes will take a punt and may change the game (Maybe not many in an Olympic year, I haven't looked into it)

I'd certainly say if Ali stays injury free and put the heat training and focus into this, he can get a win.

We've not seen Ali anywhere close to his run capabilities for years I don't think.

I don't see it. It's not as if Ditlev, Margirier et al are living and training in the tropics. Heat affected all folks training in norther hemisphere just the same. End of season races will be even more competitive with the ITU guys hungry for money after the Olympics. Top3-5 is as good as it gets.

If the men's race had been cooler, it would have benefited all the men not just Alistair. I suspect he'd probably just have taken the run out even faster.

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.