AB outswam Amberger in 2019 just days prior to the race and swam on his feet in the race (and 47.28 vs 47.33). Unless Wojt shows up AB will be in the lead group when they exit the water.

Was actually envisaging Brownlee taking Amberger once level with the end and taking the steps kudos; not that Amberger would drop him. Hence "most of".

Gotcha. "Inglish" not mother tongue.

And stupid, so two excuses.

https://www.tri247.com/...lee-kalmar-gb-record

I have said it once I have said it one hundred times.. he sucks, is washed up and is a B lister..

If AB was smart he’d let Amberger lead and draft off him to save energy, but that’s not his style

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Let food be thy medicine...

Did he ever clarify why he was denied entry?

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Let food be thy medicine...

He is and for about 95% of his career races has used this strategy.

Actually, AB swims in position 2-5 in pretty much all triathlon races. The race I was referring to was a swim race prior to the triathlon.

This is exactly what he did in 2019 (behind Frodo and Amberger), so see no reason why he wouldn't do exactly the same this year.

yeah, it's actually a really rare thing that he goes off the front. the list of feet that he's been able to hold is pretty staggering, though - strange that he doesn't get more credit as a fish.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Both AB and JB used Richy Varga who trained with their group to incredibly effective levels at numerous ITU races through the years including the Rio Olympics. He was weaponized to destroy the slightly slower swimmers in the field. Richy's swim speed would string the field out and create gaps with only a few able to hang on at the front with him but those few pretty much always included the Brownlees. Ali is too crafty to lead the swim if any fish are there for him to draft.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

100% this.

I think the biggest thing w AB right now is that he’s had 2 good results after being sick/slightly injured and has the confidence going into Kona.

That IM he did is also a great workout in and of itself to build on through late august and all of September.

If he control those DL emotions we could see him near the front in the latter half of the marathon

Curious if he will do the Dallas PTO race

Don't get me wrong, I love the aggressive way he races, but I've watched a fair few races where he's led the swim, coming into T1 with 4 or 5 guys right behind him, that have had a free ride on his feet. But that said, he knows in the past he's the quickest in the field so perhaps has the confidence to lead from the front.

I wonder how much athletes at his level rely on devices like HRMs and PMs. It sort of goes against his aggressive and competitive nature, ride conservatively using HR and power vs balls to the wall... is racing conservatively and finishing 5th left wondering if you should have gone for it or finishing 20th knowing you went for it, rolled the dice, but it just didn't pay off?

Are there any 1/2 Ironman or full Ironman distance races where have you seen him lead the swim? I just went back to look at the 2013 Kitzbuehel sprint where he's so famous for obliterated the field and found Richy Varga leading the field through the swim as he so often did. I hadn't realized how shortened that sprint race actually was or that Mario Mola really wasn't that far back at the end.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

More analysis from Jon Turner here:
https://www.tri247.com/...lee-kalmar-gb-record
Must confess 104 points for the PTO rankings seems parsimonious, compared with, for example, Ditlev's 117 at Roth for 3 minutes faster with motos and all.
Maybe this thread's title needs amending?

I wonder how many slowtwitch points Lionel would have got for a 7:38:48?

A lot more than Alistair did that's for sure :-)

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He who understands the WHY, will understand the HOW.

The result would have it's own thread twice the size of this by now full of Lionel fans saying they always knew he was the GOAT, how they predicted such and such change of kit and training was holding his potential back.

The irony of such posts is funny. The real exaggerations about fanboys > the alleged exaggerations of fanboys

jackets never misses a chance. he spends a lot of energy shaking his head about what lionel's fans would hypothetically do in any number of situations.

anyway, if we're dissecting the PTO algorithm: torsten had predicted that ali would finish 3rd in 7:52, and that the winner would go 7:47. he's already said that IM sweden in 2022 was relatively 'slow,' so for ali to go 7:38 suggests that he really 'overperformed' relative to the algorithm. does he need to beat higher-ranked athletes?

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

I suggest that the trirating seeding is based on his performances on his small set of full distance races. Hence, for example, 'expecting' him to run 2:48.
What he thinks the winner will do is not related to the likely AIT. Personally the 104 seems low to me, but hey . . .

He lead the swim in a 70.3 a few years ago, somehwere in the middle east.. Dubai or Bahrain... back in 2018 or 2019.. I remember I was watching the broadcast and it was a choppy swim..

Was that the one where he and Jonny did a team timetrial for the whole bike?

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Yeah I've watched a few ITU and Olympics races where Varga has led the whole swim. He'd lead the front pack all the way to the beach, then they'd all overtake him, thanking him as they went past! Always thought that strange. He's the strongest swimmer, but he's going to be still working hard while the others are getting a free ride.