My prediction, based on three things (among others):
1. It's going to be a non-wetsuit swim (for the PROs only - don't panic, age groupers).
2. Frodeno says he's not in top shape but he's no longer alluding to a potential DNF. His less-than-perfect preparation is most likely to show in the latter half of the run. Meanwhile Ditlev has become a legit runner. Lange - among the top 3 runners in 140.6 if not #1. Long is obviously a very good runner but less of a threat due to his swim (and point 3 below).
3. Media motos pulling the race leader (and any train behind him) on the bike.
So: Frodeno goes out super hard on the swim to put air between himself and Ditlev and Lange (as well as others) before they get on the bikes. He can't be pulling anyone and relying on his marathon for the win. As well, his Achilles hasn't prevented him from doing quality swim training (once the snows melted on the ski slopes of Andorra). Frodeno is the only one getting the moto pull. He gets to T2 at least 5 minutes ahead of the chase pack, which includes Ditlev and Lange. The rest will depend on how far away he is from his top run shape, but my bet is that Lange will catch Frodo and win the finish while Ditlev stays about a minute back.
1. Lange
2. Frodeno
3. Ditlev
Alternative scenario: same, but Ditlev and Lange wait for Long on the bike so that they can share the workload (Lange doesn't feel confident enough to chase Frodeno, and Ditlev has been a tad more conservative on the bike as of late - part of his run improvement). The ultimate beneficiary of this 'conservative' approach will be Jan Frodeno. Then it's 1. Frodeno 2. Lange 3. Long/Ditlev in a sprint finish.
No idea if Bradley Weiss will be a factor here. He's raced two 140.6s in his career, both in South Africa, neither with a full swim. His middle distance record doesn't tell me mich.
Going to be a cracking race either way.
Women: Anne Haug demolishes the field, and with all due respect to Fenella et al., they remain a sort of an afterthought.
"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden
1. It's going to be a non-wetsuit swim (for the PROs only - don't panic, age groupers).
2. Frodeno says he's not in top shape but he's no longer alluding to a potential DNF. His less-than-perfect preparation is most likely to show in the latter half of the run. Meanwhile Ditlev has become a legit runner. Lange - among the top 3 runners in 140.6 if not #1. Long is obviously a very good runner but less of a threat due to his swim (and point 3 below).
3. Media motos pulling the race leader (and any train behind him) on the bike.
So: Frodeno goes out super hard on the swim to put air between himself and Ditlev and Lange (as well as others) before they get on the bikes. He can't be pulling anyone and relying on his marathon for the win. As well, his Achilles hasn't prevented him from doing quality swim training (once the snows melted on the ski slopes of Andorra). Frodeno is the only one getting the moto pull. He gets to T2 at least 5 minutes ahead of the chase pack, which includes Ditlev and Lange. The rest will depend on how far away he is from his top run shape, but my bet is that Lange will catch Frodo and win the finish while Ditlev stays about a minute back.
1. Lange
2. Frodeno
3. Ditlev
Alternative scenario: same, but Ditlev and Lange wait for Long on the bike so that they can share the workload (Lange doesn't feel confident enough to chase Frodeno, and Ditlev has been a tad more conservative on the bike as of late - part of his run improvement). The ultimate beneficiary of this 'conservative' approach will be Jan Frodeno. Then it's 1. Frodeno 2. Lange 3. Long/Ditlev in a sprint finish.
No idea if Bradley Weiss will be a factor here. He's raced two 140.6s in his career, both in South Africa, neither with a full swim. His middle distance record doesn't tell me mich.
Going to be a cracking race either way.
Women: Anne Haug demolishes the field, and with all due respect to Fenella et al., they remain a sort of an afterthought.
"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden