Pro Tri News interview with Lange ahead of Roth: https://podcasts.apple.com/...of-roth/id1559781865?
Long has completed several IMs: only once under 8 hours. Best 26 miles is 2:45.
Ditlev has completed only one IM: in 7:57 with a 7 minute flat 'penalty', running 2:40.
I think Lange is likely not to be prepared/able to hold onto Ditlev on the bike once the Dane catches up before the first time up Solar Hill. But Lange (with Boecherer and Clavel with him?) will restrict the T2 gap to Smith/Frodeno/Ditlev/Kallin. If 2019 Frodeno races, he wins. If he needs to husband his ankle resources then Lange will chase down Ditlev.
Long will be along later: perhaps Keinle will offer him some company.
In WPRO, 4 of the top 10 women at St George are racing: will be good to see how they go, with Haug having home advantage and 'form'. After her amazing race at Cozumel (8:22) it'll be interesting to see how Svensk is going this year.

I think we've already had a discussion about comparing times from different courses achieved under different race dynamics, so I'll just state my objection for the record.

Yes, Ditlev had an impressive debut, and his run has improved immensely. That makes him a contender, despite his miniscule iron distance experience, but is no reason to dismiss Long who will outrun Ditlev by a stretch on any day that he's healthy.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

I just took a look at all 70.3 and LD podium results worldwide for 2019 and 2021 (men only) - I certainly didn't see anything about Europe that is more "deep and fierce" than North America.

Unfortunately, Kienle is now out. This could change some race dynamics.

---

David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Wait... is Lange an uber biker now? How is that a "likely not" and not a "most definetly not"? Of the people that could hang on to Ditlev's wheel Lange wouldn't be on my list.. what did I miss?

Doesn't take an uberbiker to have a shot at holding Ditlev's wheel, and the new Lange can actually ride. He was only outbiked by Frodeno by 30 seconds in last year's Challenge Gran Canaria, and he went on to post a normalized power of 4.25 watts per kilo over the (nearly) full distance at Roth:

https://hycys.de/...ange-challenge-roth/ (English google translation)

4.25 w/kg is only 268 watts in his case, but then:
- still impressive; someone like Joe Skipper would need 340 watts to match that,
- Roth has 5 500 feet (1 700 meters) of climbing,
- we're talking about riding 12 meters from the front wheel of whoever is pulling him, that is really not a lot and he's easily saving 30 watts.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Dang, I guess I did miss something. That's some seriously good riding by Lange. It'll be interesting to see if he can hold on to Ditlev then.

Do you know why kienle is out?

Frodo versus Lange on home soil is a underrated grudge match.....this will be huge if frodo is recovered

Said he is not as fit as necessary... due to catching covid after St. George and a recent (not to serious) bike crash.

You gotta feel for these pros, ready to race and on hold for two years.....just wish them all a blinding season

sebi might have been good company for Sam.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Yeah for sure, the field should be pretty dense so I dont expect him to be lonely

this, too. I imagine Brownlee has spent one or two nights screaming into the void this year. Gomez, too. alas - 2022 continues to do its thing.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

So is Sam racing CHallenge xx 70.3 this weekend and then Roth next weekend? That seems to be pushing it and maybe not leaving him the best shot!

Agree not lonely, but no fellow travellers (with the deficit at T1 and at his bike speed):noone will be wanting to / capable of playing hard ball catch up at the rate Long needs to. Lange (Tulsa/Roth) and Frodeno (2019-2021) will both expect to outrun Long, if indeed he's on their radar, the screen of which will be filled by one another, and Ditlev.

I see they have a 'Sub 10' scheme for women: https://www.challenge-roth.com/...female-athletes.html
"of course, the Sub9 programme for fast men continues to exist."


Sad that Keinle has decided he's not ready. Will never forget his "I could ring my bell" comment at the pro briefing in Nice (IMWC 70.3 2019) when the organisers said 'take care' as there might be voitures français on the lightning descent from Bouyon.

Youre right, staggered start too , pros have thier own wave

the crowd reaction on solar hill if Long and Kienle rode up together would've been something

The greatest moment of my triathlon career was at Roth in 2018. Wurf and Sebi caught me - their 2nd lap, my 1st (I started 1.15 behind them :-)) - at the hill going into Hipolstien. I burnt every match I had to go with Sebi and was right behind him at the base of Solar. Unbelievable crowd reaction!! What I did not anticipate is that literally everyone in the crowd turned their heads and watched Sebi as he cam flying through . . . including my family; so, they never even saw my greatest triathlon moment!!

---

David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

I got dragged/pushed up the last 50m of solar by a bunch of guys because I was holding up about 10 people behind me!

Yes in theory outside assistance but it was for the greater good of others, I also reeked a lot for the rest of the day from all of the beer spilt on me!

Maurice

The Blasphemy of putting Frodo in comparison to Sam Long. Long is a good athlete, but not even in the same hemisphere as Frodo in terms of achievements.

---

Jimmy S.

I must've missed the part where someone was putting Long next to Frodo in terms of achievements.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

This is part of the reason why triathletes keep underfeeding and underperforming. 9/10 courses no one gives a rats ass about your w/kg.

And your above statement is……..a……. Comparison

Roth has 5.5k feet of climbing. On the flats, the 12 m draft zone is too small for the stronger bikers to get away.

Also, Lange has been one of the top bikers in every race he's entered since he started working with Bjorn Geesmann, but of course he should quit because the Slowtwitch forums consider his bike as nothing but a commute to the run.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Geesmann's other 'bikers': Stein and Matthews; with key difference that, like Lange, Matthews can ace the subsequent run, whereas Stein (as seen yesterday) less so.

Revised prediction (in light of late entries and withdrawals)
Ditlev (and late entrant Weiss, fresh from errant bottle chucking DQ) will bridge the gap after the swim dropping Lange. Frodeno [with Smith] will be together with Ditlev first out of T2. Frodo wont spare anything for the run and seeing him working together with Ditlev they will be hard to catch. Maybe +3m gap.
Pro Tri News interview with Lange ahead of Roth: https://podcasts.apple.com/...of-roth/id1559781865?
Long has completed several IMs: only once under 8 hours. Best 26 miles is 2:45.
Ditlev has completed only one IM: in 7:57 with a 7 minute flat 'penalty', running 2:40.
I think Lange is likely not to be prepared/able to hold onto Ditlev on the bike once the Dane catches up before the first time up Solar Hill.T. But Lange (with Boecherer and Clavel with him? and maybe Weiss too) will restrict the T2 gap to Smith/Frodeno/Ditlev/Kallin. If 2019 Frodeno races, he wins. If he needs to husband his ankle resources then Lange will chase down Ditlev.
Long will be along later: perhaps Keinle will offer him some company.
In WPRO, 4 of the top 10 women at St George are racing: will be good to see how they go, with Haug [NB 2021 faster speed than 2011 Wellington record] with home advantage and 'form'. The race will be for second.
MX Endurance podcast here with their rather laboured and low on analysis take on Roth: