there is still a lot good swimmers in the field neuman, smith , laidlow , baakegard , angert ,the one who likely would have had the biggest impact was josh amberger. gomes does not do to much leadwork in the swim .

Great to hear that Brownlee is getting some sun and altitude

The front end field depth evaporated a bit but Baekkegard and Brownlee could have similar pace profiles

Is David Macnamee on form? What about Hoffman, Aernauts and Currie?

4th place isn't bad at all if he was sick!

There's hope we could see something special again coming.

yeah, i think the timing of that BMC video from brownlee threw a few people for a loop. i was confused too.

macnamee has had some shaky performances this year at a couple of halfs - struggled with illness i think. but he did run a 1:11 at oceanside, which is solid. i think his training has been good, working with vincent luis and co., and i figure a race of attrition (like st.george might turn into) would play into his hands.

haven't followed bart as closely, but he also had a middling day at oceanside. but braden has had some intriguing performances - he was stuck in NZ for a while and had IM NZ cancelled, but did win a legendary adventure race there in convincing fashion.

hoff is currently slated to race texas this weekend, as well as st.george; i think in the past he's been cool with high volume, so maybe he'll train right through texas, or maybe (?) his 'real' focus is kona and this is all just early-season stuff for him.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Baekkegard is a FOP swimmer, so no problem with that...He is also a good biker...if he´s got the day he can do some damage cause he also knows the course.... There are 6 main favourites right now: Iden, Blum, Brownlee, Baekkegard, Sanders, Long. (I ignore wether Skipper is sick or what..). Blum will catch Alistair an Baekkegard in the first miles of the bike (though I would not be surprised with the guy exiting the water with Alistair)...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

I think batting 2/3 in Ironman while concurrently doing short course is pretty amazing. HIs loss in Kona BTW was crazy. I can not imagine how much energy he expended chasing back to Frodeno and TO. I think he would have podiumed if he waited for the Wurf train.

He clearly did some calculation in his head at Oceanside, really his first tri since western australia, and did not up the gear when passed. He may have been sick or realized that at 33 you only have so many matches per season. Could have also not wanted the target on his back as much at St George. He strolled across that line, 55 sec behind(only) and patted a clearly spent 2nd and 3rd on the back, casually walked away and started working on what needs to be worked on.
When you have 2 Gold medals oceanside does not matter, only the WC matters. not saying he will win but he will be a huge factor being one of the biggest engines, across all three disciplines, the sport has seen.

I would be very surprised to see that!

Without Josh Amberger there to drive the swim, I'll be surprised if the swim speed is especially fast. Alistair will certainly be firmly attached to the toes of the first or second swimmer but I've never seen him lead a distance swim. If you can point to any where he himself drove the swim I'd be glad to be corrected. He's too smart a racer to waste his energy towing the field. I expect Blu to come out very close to Alistair.

YMMV,

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Ali has lead the swim a few time in ITU when the pace hasn't been on to his liking, he's been first out the water a few times.

He's a clever racer, so I'm sure if need be he'll lead that swim.

Please name me a race where he did this from early in the swim, not just the last hundred meters or so. I do remember Johnny leading out a couple of swims with dire results later in the race.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Not a chance I can do this off the top of my head, and can't be arsed going through every race swim to find out when this happened.

It certainly wasn't a regular thing especially when Varga was racing (what the hells happened to him by the way?) Just a few times, defo a race were post interview Ali complained about the pace of the swim and said he had to go to the front.

He's a clever racer, so I'm sure if need be he'll lead that swim. //

THIS^^^^

The swim could end up like a bike race, a super hot pace from the beginning to shake out all the groups, then a nice settle in to the finish. I could see Ali setting a blistering early pace to make sure the hurt is put on enough to break the elastic back to Blu and others, then make them burn matches closing whatever swim gap they can easily hold. That would be my tactic, as long as there is at least one or two that can hang with you during your attack...

Dennis Chevrot , Kyle Smith, Angert and a fit Braden Currie can make the front pack too....Chevrot was first out of the water in Kona 18. So add them to Alistair and DB and maybe Blummie...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Austria 2011 (could have been 2010), Macca's return to try to qualify for the London Olympics.

AB let the swim, and the whole race from the get go.

I remember it because Macca was off the back in the swim and AB was commenting how slow the swim was.

Thanks, I'll go watch that one. That was a decade ago and therefore before I was following regularly. I still expect to watch him very near but not at the front.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I'm glad someone has an encyclopedic like knowledge of races!

Just watched the highlights which showed the bulk of the swim and as you said, Alistair did put on a master class driving it right from the get go. I’m still ready to bet he won't be found leading the coming swim. I do however fully expect him to be exhorting the swimmer ahead of him to go faster;)

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Heard on the triathlon mockery podcast today that Varga is racing IM Texas tomorrow!

Varga being in IM is bad news for those weak swimmers!

Which race was this exactly? Might have a watch of this myself over the weekend.

It was 2011 Kitzbühel and Alistair was definitely in fine form.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Alistair is in fine form! With only 5 days to go we know whos in and whos out. Except for Wurf, whats his status anyone know?
I hope hes in to see a true Cyclist smoke the bike course.

I've got Alistair on the podium, and a decent shout at the W.

This will be the first 140.6 focussed and run fit AB we will have seen in LC. He'll have dialled in pacing and nutrition as part of the sub 7 prep and despite his reputation as a reckless racer in LC a lot of that was down to 'I haven't got the run fitness, I need to win this on the bike'. If he has the run in the locker, that will temper his bike strategy.

As someone noted earlier, the Oceanside 4th finish didn't show a man who'd gone all in for the W, and had blown. He'll enjoy being off the radar, maybe even written off by some and won't be the most marked, and watched athlete out there.

He needs to show up to the start line to win. He’s been well prepared but not 100%. Again, he can’t show us what he got. Cramp, injury, 4th place at Oceanside… I’m sorry but haven’t seen his recent stellar performance that blows everyone away. We have to wait for months again.

Again, he’s injured and can’t participate in Sub 7 project.