So your using a 1/2 split when we are talking an IM in Kona. If that’s the case for a strong run?

Well just agree to disagree and I’ll keep it to IM distance races and her own splits in this race to showcase its not that strong relative in Kona.


And that she needs as much ground out of T2 within reasonable effort not less time. She needs to force the runners to break themselves trying to catch her not give them even shorter ground out of T2. IE- how she actually got 2nd, she repassed because it broke the other girl to catch her and she couldn’t hold on, even though she out ran her by 9 mins.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Ummm, I think you have that wrong. Lucy would be Learmouth's domestique.

But either way they would probably 1-2 quite a few IM races together.

So your using a 1/2 split when we are talking an IM in Kona. If that’s the case for a strong run? //

Yes I am. And if she ran a 33+ stand alone 10k, I would also use that as an indication that her running has improved, or a 16 low 5k too. Running is running, if you are able to run a particular pace up to 13 miles, then it is no stretch to push that gain out to a marathon. And since she has some low 3 hour marathons already in the bank before these latest improvements, even less a stretch to assume her marathon should not also be faster. I dont understand why you dont see that? I guess if you were her coach, you would have her running a bunch of stand alone marathons for her training.


The rest of the triathlon world runs shorter races(like 1/2 marathon), knowing that they are a great indication of running improvement, and a hell of a lot less stress and damage done in the process of training for ironmans. It is not like this is her first race, she has a history and it indicates that she could be a very good off the bike runner, right now.

there's only one thing she can do - she needs to BELIEVE she can win (jump to 2:00):
https://youtu.be/x0cz_YhNmvM?t=121
</pink>

I agree with your statement about giving 4 minutes on the bike to get 8 minutes on the run. That is just voodoo nonsense.

But I think Lucy is a fairly strong runner. Based on that rough patch she went through that run was on the low end of what she can do. So to win the race:

Swim like 2019
Bike like 2019
Run like 2019 without that rough patch

Do that 3 times and you will win once or twice.

I think it really is this simple. There was nothing Lucy could have done this year. She lost by six+ minutes. A few minutes slower on the swim or bike wasn't going to translate into a marathon fast enough to win. Haug just ran a spectacular marathon and deserves enormous credit. If Lucy keeps replicating this performance and gets just a bit faster on the run, she'll win one or more. The hard part is replicating this race. Even though she lost, it was an amazing performance and effort. To hold the lead alone for that long, drop to third, and then muster the will to fight back is really impressive.

This.

She said prerace that her run is getting better and takes time to do it injury free.
Tactics will not have affected her race much. She is learning to be a better runner. She is not there yet.
Second is excellent for her now!

How many marathons are lost on tactics compared to talent on the day. You are over thinking this.

---

Team Zoot So Cal

Where have I said I don’t understand that.

I’ve pointed to her likely run improvement.

I’ve just also said that at IM she’s going to always be having to deal with the uber runners and that right now she isn’t strong enough to come out of T2 closer to those runners.

So I’ll be shocked if she runs sub 3 in Kona within 3 years. And that in her case she needs to force the runners to have a gap that they break to run down while not “over biking”. It worked against crawley didn’t work against haug.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

IfI were her coach I wouldn’t describe her as a “strong runner” especially at the IM distance in Kona that is specific to this race tactic and discussion.

ETA: I also wouldn’t change a tactic and I would keep the strengths she has while limiting her run lose + improving it. It’s also why I said she’s likely to be far more a braidsmaid than winning this event, especially as there is always a new Uber runner in IM.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Her run has improved and I think can continue to improve with proper coaching.

MadTownTRI wrote:

She still loses to Anne Haug by 2.5’ in your scenario...

1. Anne Haug (DEU): 8:40:10 (54:09; 4:50:18; 2:51:06)
2. Lucy Charles (GBR): 8:46:44 (48:13; 4:47:21; 3:06:00)

Correct. If Lucy goes even slower on the bike than what I original said, which lets her go faster on the run, she'd definitely win.


Here are their times without transitions. If Lucy went 7 minutes slower on the bike (and just imagine how much more rested she'd be) and then ran a 2:52 marathon, she'd have won by a full minute. And that's still running the marathon one minute slower than Anne Hague.


______Anne - LCB - LCB champ
Swim 0:54:09 - 0:48:13 - 0:48:13
_Bike 4:50:18 - 4:47:21 - 4:54:21
_Run 2:51:06 - 3:06:00 - 2:52:00
Total 8:35:33 - 8:41:34 - 8:34:34

The problem is that she needs to be able to run a 2:52 marathon. Sounds difficult, but maybe could do it if she backed off the bike by 7 minutes. That's a lot of energy in the bank. Coming off the bike 2 minutes ahead of the competition instead of 9.

Yes it can and will improve but at what cost. That’s the fun part in this. It’s also why Kona is almost always won by the strongest runner or one of strongest runs. She’s was 8th out of the top 10. There’s enough validation to say that’s not considered a “strong run”. I didnt figure it was that complicated or argumentative.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No argument or confusion on my part. My point is that she is very young to be at the pointy end of the sport already. With some continued run improvement/bike strategy she can win Kona or any other race for that matter.

But now you have moved the goalposts on what you were saying before, focusing only on the medicore run she had this past week. Yes you and I and evreryone els can agree "THAT" particular run was not that strong. But this is what you said, and what myself and most others have been arguing with you about;

"I dont think her run speed is there, nor has ever been there"..

So seems like you are backing off on that statement a bit, and focusing on one bad run to base your argument on now?

I'm just amused that since apparently this forum isn't allowed to fix Lionel anymore, it now has to fix Lucy. :)

Yes I’m focusing entirely on how she runs in Kona (in 3 years racing pro she has gone 3:08 to 3:05) I’ve yet to see her have the run pedigree to back up even a 3hr run and win with regards to the tactics that it’ll take to win.

Or better yet then your suggesting she’s racing with the wrong tactics if your saying she’s a strong runner. Strong runners don’t need to ride off the front and gain a 9 min advantage.

Are you saying she should only come out 5 mins ahead to the Uber runners since she has the strong run?

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Ha your starting to sound like the fantasy football owner that is down 60 pts with only 1 game left and 1 wr left....”sure he can catch 5 td passes” and over come that gap.

2 min advantage with her run pedigree would not equal a 2:52 nor even close to that by “resting 7 mins” on the bike. That’s just not how it works but if you can show real world data I’d love to see that. And only having a 2 min gap against Uber runners would mean she has to run with them for likely 20-22 miles. That’s not normally how you beat a Uber runner when you yourself haven’t shown that ability.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I said very early in this thread what I thought she should focus on, just like you did, based on your statement that you dont see any run improvement at all. Only I will stand by my comments, and not keep moving them around like you seem to be doing.

To reiterate what I said before, she needs to get stronger on the bike to hold the pace of this year, and make incremental gains in her run, as it is apparent she has quite a bit of talent there based on this years improvements(which I guess you dont see, we will just have to disagree there). Her most important thing now is to be able to do her best run off that ride she did, and that comes with focus on the ride, not the run...

Unfortunately for her only Kona. Maybe Nice. She’s so good that everything else is just a catered workout or parade. She’s suffering from the women’s field being a few years behind the men’s field. Maybe when some fast women drop down to long course racing she’ll have some company at the front and put more of a gap between herself and the likes of Haug and Ryf.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Monty I’ve not once veered from my comments so stop with the stupid ass rebuttals. I’ve said she’s no where close to being a strong runner and I don’t see it yet at Kona. Want to disagree, great but stop with adding the pettiness to somehow make me look bad. I’ve said she’s not a strong runner and I don’t think I’ve differed. I don’t care what she can do at the half, I care what she can do to put it all together at the IM distance. It all matters but at the end of the day what matters is what you do in races and so far she’s not able to take that 1/2 strength to the IM. Thus when I look at an athlete like her I’m most certainly not calling her a “strong runner” in the IM game. If you want to, cool, or your basing on 10k or half splits go ahead.

But I’ve not changed my tune. She ain’t a strong runner in IM and that’s the point of this discussion is it not? I’ve said she’ll get better and I also said she’ll likely run up against Uber runners probaly 3 different ones over the next 10 years. Ashley Gentle would be one too look after imo going LC (prob 5-7 from Kona though).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If she is not burning matches on the swim or bike, why should she slow down just so she is not alone out there? Makes no sense unless she can win a foot race, which right now she can't. That might be a good strategy someday, but not now.

She is young and will win multiple Championships some day. She is nowhere near her peak. She has to work on her run speed. Simple as that.

She needs the no-draft zone extending to 25m so the other women have to work as hard on the bike as she does.

THIS ^ coupled with a 2:55 marathon, she'll do it in time, she's young.

Duffy has some crazy potential at longer distance. I can see her moving up and immediately being a contender.