http://www.bikesportmichigan.com/

Sorry, this link works... duh.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Floyd will climb with Basso and TT with Der Jan. And that will do it.

That's not surprising, since glorified domestiques like Landis, Hincapie and Leipheimer don't have a chance of winning a major Tour.

Wasn't LeMond a domestique for a couple of years?

And lets not forget Miguel Indurain, he was a domestique for several years for Pedro Delgado.

Yeah, but look at how old Landis, Hincapie, Liepheimer etc are compared to Lemond and Indurain when they won their first tours.

Landis / Liepheimer could possibly win, if Basso & Ullrich both have terrible Tours and they ride perfectly and never have any bad luck. Otherwise, no.

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No mention of Valverde? He is a legitimate threat to win. Vinokourov as a darkhorse / sentimental favorite in a Claudio Chiapucci kind of way, if he is allowed to ride.

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There's a name for that, it's called wishful thinking.

You are right, Lemond was young at 25 when he first won the Tour and Indurain (and Lance) were 27 when they first won the tour; just a bit younger than Basso is right now. Landis is 30, Leipheimer is 32 and Hincapie is 33, all of those three are a bit old to be looking for their first tour win, but all are still younger then Riis when he won in 96. But lets not forget Ulrich is 32 so he isn't a young guy any more.

With all of that said, I expect Basso to win, Ulrich to finish second and someone from Discovery (Azevedo, Popovych or Hincapie) to finish third.

So, is the Tour a matter of just Ullrich or Basso? Are there any other real contenders?

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Tom Demerly
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Ullrich is 32, but he does have a proven track record. So does Basso.

Yes, Riis (Mr. 60 percent) was older when he won his Tour, but that is the exception rather than the rule.

I like Azevedo a lot, but I don't think he has what it takes to podium at the Tour. Popovych, on the other hand, is a legitimate threat to podium. (much more so than Hincapie).

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Based on Popo's results lately I don't think he has much of a chance. I think Levi has a better chance. One of the Orangemen (Mayo and I forgot the other guy) have been riding well too though I don't think they'll contend for the overall. All I have to say is I'm recording every minute of it for winter training!

John

I agree. At this stage, I think it may be Basso's to lose. Anything can happen, but I would hesitate to say the race is wide open. Even Armstrong tipped Basso as the heir apparent.

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Tom Demerly
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You couldn't be more clueless with that comment. You really should stop and think for a moment before you fire off idiotic comments.

Jack

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What fun would that be for the rest of us?

True, I just sometimes hope for thoughtful ideas with some merit, but am often let down.



Jack

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[reply]
So, is the Tour a matter of just Ullrich or Basso? Are there any other real contenders? [/reply]

I don't think so, if someone other than one of those two wins, I think it would be a major surprise. The Tour is theirs to lose, if Basso can TT close to Jan he wins easily, If Jan stays close Basso in the mountains then it should be his to win.

I am expecting that it will come down to the final time trial with Jan needing to close a gap of 2 or 2 1/2 minutes on Basso in order to win. Then we should see a close finish.

The others need both of these guys to falter in order to have a reasonable chance of winning.

I agree with your analysis. A duel in the final time trial would be a great outcome.

I'm torn as to who I want to win. A big part of me wants to see Ullrich prevail. The man has paid his dues and had some incredible rides. It was his misfortune he was racing in the age of such a dominant rider as Armstrong.

One way or another, it will be incredibly exciting.

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Tom Demerly
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I was just thinking about the Disco boys, who has a chance to podium on that team. Floyd and Levi are both greater threats to podium than anyone on Disco.

Based on the way he's been riding, I'd say Basso should be the favourite. Ullrich's stock has risen tremendously in the last few weeks, and with only 3 mountaintop finishes in this year's Tour, along with a team that is finally dedicated 100% to Jan, and no TTT for CSC to gain time on T-Mobile, Ullrich is my favourite for le Tour. Basso was also going really well in the Giro, maybe he peaked too early?? Who knows?

So. my predictions. a 2 horse race for the top step, Jan by a nose over Basso.

The 3rd step will be a closer race. Floyd, Levi, Valverde, Popo (outside chance), Mayo, Kloden, etc. my pick - Floyd.

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Seriously, why is that an idiotic and clueless comment? Those riders ARE glorified domestiques, that since leaving (or not) USPS, never had relevant results as team leaders. The results speak for themselves when it comes to Leipheimer and Landis, as they never lived out their own expectations, which are not the expectations of the people that actually know one or two things about cycling. Most times I think it's impossible that those are american btw.

And if you're after clueless remarks, how about going after the people that think that Hincapie or Azevedo will be the Discovery leaders for the Tour? That would be a good place to start.

I disagree with your assessment that Landis and Leipheimer have not had significant results since leaving USPS. Both have won major tier-2 tours as GC leaders. I'm not talking about TdGeorgia, but real European races like Paris-Nice, Tour of Germany and obviously this years Dauphine.

I don't think that makes them automatically Tour victory contenders, but both have top 10 finishes from last year, both have had good results this year and both are strong at both TT and climbing.

The Tour is clearly Basso or Ullrichs to lose, but if either (or both) of them have bad days, both Floyd and Levi should be as ready as anyone else to take over the lead.

The results from the 2001 Vuelta:

1 Angel Casero (Spa) Festina 70.49.05 (42.534 km/h)*
2 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Kelme-Barclaycard 0.47
3 Levi Leipheimer (USA) US Postal Service 2.59
4 Roberto Heras (Spa) US Postal Service 3.56
5 Juan Miguel Mercado (Spa) iBanesto.com 5.45
6 David Plaza (Spa) Festina 5.53
7 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal Service 6.57
8 Klaus Möller (Den) Milaneza-MSS 7.13
9 Aitor Osa (Spa) iBanesto.com 8.32
10 Fernando Escartin (Spa) Team Coast 10.31
11 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 12.58


Although perhaps not the team leader that year, Levi has certainly shown the capability to excel in a GT.

How come no mention of AG2Rs Mancebo and Moreau among the best of the rest going for the podium? I like their chances.

I think they have a strong shot at the podium- Mancebo is always there when the pressure is on.

I doubt they will be on the top step unless there is some stroke of bad luck with Ullrich and Basso.

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Tom Demerly
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LEt's go back to the Tours of the last years. They still had some bad and worse days. There wasn't any consistency in their riding on the big mountain stages. And I won't even mention when Landis was USPS leader for the Vuelta or Leipheimer's first Tour for Rabo.

They were in the "etc..." ;)

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From a cyclingnews.com interview with Hincapie:


“Going into the Tour, myself and Yaroslav [Popovych] will probably be the leaders. José Azevedo as well... he has been top five before, so you can't really leave him out,” he states. Double Giro d’Italia winner Paolo Salvoldelli has also been confirmed for the team, so he too has the ability to ride strongly.

I guess George is as clueless as I am.

The poll has picked up about 20 votes and still dead even. Is somebody messing with this?

http://www.bikesportmichigan.com/

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

That interview is given exactly for the clueless like yourself to believe. Only the clueless think that a major cycling team is going into the biggest cycling race in the world and has 4 leaders, or will wait to see how the race will play out to find out who's the leader.

That's a recipe for disaster (but what do I know, I'm not a DS). Having multiple team leaders has worked once in the last 20 years, in 1986.

Start with a designated team leader. If that doesn't work out, switch leaders, but at no time should you have multiple protected riders. Then you have a too many chiefs, not enough indians scenario.

Even when Jan won his first tour, he started that tour working for Riis. When it became apparent that Riis didn't have it, the leadership role was passed.

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"That's not surprising, since glorified domestiques like Landis, Hincapie and Leipheimer don't have a chance of winning a major Tour. "

The Dauphine isn't a major tour? What about Paris-Nice? The Tour of Germany (in front of a very motivated/on form Ullrich?)

I'm surprised to read such a stereotypically American comment from you - Landis and Leipheimer have both won "major" tours already - just not 3 week tours - and Leipheimer has a podium place in a three week tour.

Neither one of those riders can possibly be considered a "glorified Domestique" - that description displays a shocking level of ignorance, if you mean it seriously. Leipheimer has been one of the most consistantly successful stage race riders in the world the last couple of seasons, and Landis has multiple week-long stage race wins already this season.

Favorites? No, of course not, but Leipheimer and Landis are at least in with a chance, as the betting lines reflect...





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Yes, but over the years many dominant riders have not survived unscathed to Paris -- or even made it to the starting line. To me, that is one of the most amazing accomplishments of LA's string. Would anyone consider an even money wager on the field against Ullrich/Basso? If not, what would the odds need to be?

I agree neither excelled last year in the mountains - especially on Courchevel when they should have been in the final selection. But again both are improving this year over last.

Here are Leipheimer's results:

Tour 2002 (Rabo) - 8th

Tour 2003 (Rabo) - crash DNF

Tour 2004 (Rabo) - 9th

Tour 2005 (Gero) - 6th

Definately solid and 9th in Tour debut is pretty good I think.

Personally I think all of the following riders have about an equal chance of finishing in the top 5 and should be pretty even if Basso / Ullrich have a couple bad days.

Floyd, Levi, Vino, Valverde, Cadel Evans, Mancebo and Popo.

Valverde should be included, but he won't win, nor will Vino, but his attacking style could shake things up, especially for guys like Leipheimer and Landis, who've never been able to accelerate with the best climbers.

Basso has never shown the ability to put significant time into Ullrich in the mountains when both are in shape, but Ullrich took out Basso fairly easily riding below his ability & while still gaining fitness at the Giro - that's very telling in a TT dominant tour.

Ullrich by 2 1/2 minutes, followed by Basso, then it's a coin flip for the third podium spot. The more interesting race will be the prologue - will Millar take it in his comeback, will Ullrich throw down right off the bat, or will someone else be wearing yellow for the first, really, really boring week?

I'm still thinking "the list" will come out of Spain next week, and then the tour could be completely scrambled. You know there are some big names on those packs of blood.

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

Based on Tours past, Basso is very good at following (usually Armstrong) up the mountain but not attacking. I think Basso will again follow the pure climbers up the major climbs and I also think Jan will keep contact; this will also be true for Floyd and possibly Levi. This is why the 2 long TT are paramount for whoever plans to win the 06 TdF. The person who does the best in the 2 time trials will win and I think that will be Jan. I'm still confused will Landis, if he returns to his spring form then I think he could be second with Basso third.

Dave in VA

Let's get this straigth, you're calling Paris-Nice and Tour of Germany "major tours" and calling me clueless. Give me a break.

And yes, I am stereotyping and guess what, almost everyone posting on this thread is doing a great job of fitting that stereotype, even Ian and he's canadian! If Landis or Leip or Hincapie were not american, you guys would have a problem even knowing their names. That is why Valverde is seldom mentioned, even if he's a much better rider that those americans, and with a lot of room for improvement.

Is anyone seriously considering Hincapie to be a threat for the overall?? Heck I hope he surprises me, but I doubt that he has what it takes to make the jump from top 15 last year to top 3 this year. Not at his age.

Paris-Nice and the Tour of Germany are significant tours, and are well respected races that are difficult to win. Not Major Tours with a capital M, but they are near the top of that next level down from the big 3.

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Not me. The poll reflects that sentiment too.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

As much as I'll be cheering for Floyd, Levi and the other Americans, I think it is more wishful thinking that any of them will be on the podium unless the favourites crash.

top 10 Order of Finish

Jan, Basso, Mayo, Valverdi, Vino, Levi, Floyd, couple other guys, 10th- some discovery guy.

Seeing George battle with the big dogs for a top place would be awesome. I'll wish for it, but wouldn't bet on it.

Don't base your assessment of Basso's tendencies based on what he was able to do against Armstrong. Very few were able to atack Armstrong on the mountains and actually stay away to the finish, and no-one was able to do that day-after-day.

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HA!

I actually think Landis will finish 3rd and Valverde 4th. I was more impressed with Landis before he blew up on Ventoux, but at least he had the foresight to ease back for the rest of the race. I think he's fit, smart and has a good coach to work with (and i'm not talking about Ventura).

Just so you can mock my cycling knowledge here are my picks for top 10:

Jan Ullrich Ivan Basso Floyd Landis Valverde Levi Leipheimer Paco Mancebo Cadel Evans Popovich Vino George Hincapie

Oh and the the guy who said the first week will be boring - i think you're way off base - it's going to be like 5 spring classics in a row with Boonen vs. McEwen vs. Thor

Now if you really want to talk about over-extending expectations who are the idiots at FIFA that have USA ranked 5th. Wow.

Mr. Paulo is right, and I like to add Iban Mayo to the "because-we-do-not-understand-what-they-say-we-never-mention-them-on-ST-outsiders".

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Fuck a duck and try to fly

The first week is never boring. Actually, the green jersey competition is the only one that has consistently been a race all the way to Paris in recent years, ever since Eric the Mighty loosened his grip on it.

Although Boonen will clean up this year.

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I think Savoldelli could be the strongest Disco guy in the Tour - certainly his Giro was subpar and I'm sure he'd like to erase that.

He need to get into a break - maybe gain 5-6 min to have a shot at the podium though.

1st week could be interesting for long breaks - I can see CSC & T-mobile eyeing each other -waiting for the chase that may not transpire until it's too late. No one else will be expected to control the race.

Lots of potential top 10 guys out there - who'll break thru to the podium? I like Evans chances (and I'm not Aussie!).

Only the clueless are, hence my point.

And what about capital M and small t? Small t and capital M? You need to be clear when you write it, because some people might have problems.

Quick-Step and Lotto-Davitamon, maybe Credit Agricole will control the race in the first week. Don't expect any breaks to succeed, although I do predict that at least one break of 100kms or more will be caught inside the final kilometer.

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The first week will be Davitamon vs. Quick-Step trying to control the race. No Belgian team is going to let a big break get way up the road in a race that goes through Belgium.

I think TMobile & CSC will have it easy the first week.

So who's clueless? Don't be shy, name names.

OK. (not all inclusive, I don't have time to check the entire UCI calendar) This is my personal ranking system, it does not necessarily align with UCI classifications.

Major Tours: France, Italy, Spain

major Tours: Suisse, Germany, Dauphine, Paris Nice, Portugal

Minor Tours: other european 1 week tours (whatever they are), driesdagge de panne,

minor Tours: tour de georgia, etc (US based)

major tours: paris-brest-paris

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They are major tours - just not "Grand Tours." The 3 three week tours stand in a category of their own, but clearly the Tour of Germany and Paris-Nice are in the next ranking - and, I reiterate, one of your "glorified domestiques" has already podiumed in a grand tour. Face it, you just can't support this nonsense.

BTW, here's the current betting line from Unibet:

Basso, I 2.10 Ullrich, J 3.50 Valverde, A 11.00 Vinokourov, A 13.00 Landis, F

Must be all those Americans bumbing up Landis' numbers, right? (...somehow I don't think so...)

Have you, perchance, been reading the top pro-tour rider's picks for the TDF? In interviews, nearly all of them seem to disagree with you, putting both Landis and Leipheimer in with a podium chance.

And, "If Landis or Leip or Hincapie were not american, you guys would have a problem even knowing their names" is just ridiculous. There are several people on this board who not only know a lot about world cycling, but have raced at a high level in Europe and elsewhere. Hell, I watched the last TT of last year's TDF on a TV mounted in the side of a team bus, after 5 hours of racing through the Dolomites - which means very little, except that your assumptions of nationalist parochialism are just another form of prejudice, and just as ignorant as any other.





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Vino.... Now that is interesting. Hmmm.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

In order to win a major tour, you have to be able to climb with the best on the last climb of a hard stage. Do you have any reason to believe that Hincapie can't do that? Saying he hasn't isn't good enough, since that hasn't been part of his job description in any of the TdFs so far. Seriously, what's the basis of your view here? Do you know that his W/kg is too low? Do you know what kind of training he's been doing?

His metamorphosis over the years is remarkable, and he has shown his ability to stay with the leaders over every climb that he's required to. His TT ability is very high. He's learned from the best.

I hate to say it, but do some of you feel like when you watch the leader you will be watching the "second best" because Lance is not there?

I do. Perhaps I shouldn't - but I do.

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Adrian in Vancouver

Yep, I feel like that since Eddy Merckx stopped racing...

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I guess this are the same that said that USA would win their group and go on to next stage on the World Cup...

Soccer aside...

There is no way that under normal circumstances either Landis, Leipheimar or Hencapie will win the Tour. To be honest I'm not expecting that Basso will win it either. The minimum I can say regarding the way he dominated the Giro is that it makes think! He not just seemed to have peaked to early, but too strong too (if you know what I mean!!!)!

I guess we will have our answers in a couple of weeks, but if I were you, I would be prepared to see a bunch of Europeans on the top ten.

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The "Pocket Hercules" - jgrat

Technique sets the upper limit to where your fitness will take you...

Somehow, I don't think that the betting line from a major European (Belgian) online casino would have reflected the American football (soccer) aspirations the way it does their TDF hopes...

IOW, I think you are missing the point of my post, which is that the legitimate aspirations of the US TDF contenders are not a localized US-boosting phenomena. These hopes are reflected in the publicly expressed sentiments of the favorites themselves, the interviews with team directors, and the betting lines - a typically reliable litmus of "informed" European public opinion.

None of this is my opinion; I haven't said anything about what I think will happen :0) I'm just refuting Paulo's transparently biased "US fans are ignorant homers" interpretation, and supporting the idea that, in fact, the weight of public opinion world wide supports the idea that their are, in fact, legitimate US contenders for the title this season.



- not that this means these opinions are correct, btw - just that they are reasonable, given the facts in evidence, and apart from nationalistic bias.









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"No mention of Valverde? He is a legitimate threat to win."



Jason,

I agree with you on this. Nobody's talking about him at all and he was so strong last year ... and had a good Spring, too.

Bob C.

"Do you have any reason to believe that Hincapie can't do that?"

It isn't about whether I have any reason to believe that he can't climb with the best, just that I don't have any reason to believe that he can climb with the best, day after day, and also smoke the TT's. George is a very good rider, no doubt, but he has never shown that he has that little extra to make him a podium threat. Traditionally, he has been very good on the lower slopes of the climbs, even shelling some of the pure climbers who were on bad days, but he only has one tdf stage win to his credit.

Even Eros Poli has won a mountain stage (Ventoux, I think??)

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Understood. My question is, again, is there any evidence that he doesn't have that little extra? An argument can be made that he has never had to, and in fact showing that "little extra" would have been counter to the team plan by having him not recovered for the work of the next day.

I think for any DC guy to win it will take different race tactics. There are 4 guys that are a threat. Not to win in a climbing battle with Basso, or out TT Jan, but they could take turns attacking, or getting in break aways and stir the shit up. Hincapie is probably my favorite rider, but you are don't seeing the facts if you except him to win the TDF the way it has been raced the past 7 years, and before that. If DC dictates the race instead of letting CSC ride every ones legs off on the climbs it will shake things up.

I would not be surprised to see 2 Americans in the top 10 and 3 in the top 15. Seeing one on the top step in Paris... possible, but a long shot maybe. Should be fun to watch.

The old no proof of the negative must be positive argument...... ;)

It all comes down to what have folks done when the leaders are all together at the foot of the last climb. Sort out the men from the boys.

Basso, Jan, Mayo, Valverda, Vino have all shown at one time or another that they can not only hold on, but drop the rest.

Levi seems to be almost there. Floyd and George have never demonstrated this. Hope they do, hope they can, but haven't seen it yet. Not in the same league as the others mentioned.

<<I agree with you on this. Nobody's talking about him [Valverde] at all and he was so strong last year ... and had a good Spring, too. >>

No one is talking about him because there are over 100kms of time trials.....

Landis and Leipheimer have won PT races in the last year, so apparantly you must be looking only at the winners of GTs as winners of respectable races. Leipheimer has never finished outside the top 10 in the tour, with almost zero support in every year, and don't forget he finished on the podium in the Vuelta in lhis ast year as a domestic for USPS. Landis hasn't been around long enough to have any expectations, so I don't know where your thoughts on that come from, and he has had a stellar year so far which has to be evaluated as meeting 'expectations'.

I do agree with you about the Disco boys, and would love to take those who think Big H has a reasonable chance to finish on the podium.

I will say, the American riders, outside of Basso and Ullrich, are more complete than any of the others who aspire to the podium.

Jack

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I vote for Lance!! He will definitely do it again this year!!













;-)

Easy up there... I have lived in Europe for the last 5.5 years (although I am now back in the U.S.), so I am quite aware of the european and south american riders. Most french, spanish, italian and German riders would kill to win the races that Leipheimer and Landis have one over the last year. They would also love to be able to TT like the American riders, as that is such a key to the GTs.

Stereotyping aside, I think your mistaken to write off Landis and Leipheimer, and the other anglo, Cadel Evans because they all possess great power to weight ratios, which is one of the keys to success in GTs.

Jack

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I thought Valverde was a decent TT'er, along with being an excellent climber and pretty good in a sprint. Just a very useful all-rounder.

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I personally would love to see GH get on the podium. He seems like a class guy, tons of heart and worked like a dog for Lance for a long time...Like many, I was thrilled when he pulled off the stage win last year. Physically, he may the talent to get Top 3. Unfortunately, I agree with others that have stated that he is simply not in the same league as Basso, Ullrich... but I think its more a mental issue, than a physical one. I've heard it stated before, by his teammates (I think it was on the Discovery channel special that covered his buildup to Paris Roubaix last year), he's simply too nice a guy to win. Sounds ridiculous....I know.

But for some reason, I don't see him having the edge necessary to grab the race by the throat. You know what I'm talking about....the magical 'IT'. The killer instinct. The anger and will to throttle every one else on the course. Lance obviously had it in spades. Ullrich has it. Basso has it. Vino has it....but does he have the strategy and patience to ration his efforts when he needs to?? I also think Landis has it, though I have questions if Phonak can support him the way that CSC and T-Mobile are able to support Basso and Ullrich.

Leipheimer is certainly a wild card. So is Mayo.

Just ask yourself, can you picture GH giving 'The Look'?? Anyway, I hope I'm wrong.

One thing is certain...its going to be an exciting Tour.

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JP

my twitter feed

Lets not forget that Landis and Hincapie probably have 1 or 2 more Dr. appointments, err, I mean training sessions with Ferrari.........

<< I thought Valverde was a decent TT'er>>

He's not as bad as Cunego, but he's pretty bad.....

Ullrich, Landis, Basso, and probably even Leipheimer will put some good time into him in the TTs.

Congrats, you just made my list of people that amuse me by how highly they think of themselves.

Maybe I should tell you how many "Grand Tours" (not to be confused with major tours) I've watched, but I'll just let you know that I have raced in Europe most of my life.

Anyone that thinks that those 3 have a shot at a TdF podium is an ignorant homer. The truth hurts.

I think "pretty bad" is a bit unkind. He didnt lose major time in Romandie or the Dauphine (2.03 down on Dave Z over 43km and 28s down on GH). He loses too much time to be a contender for the win in the tour but will be a strong contender for the podium if he shakes it up in the mountains.

As for Basso being a sitter - he knows that the rules have changed with LA gone and he will be working to be the one who makes the rules - witness the solo rides at the Giro.

I shall be supporting Ullrich as I have done for the last 7 years (despite the fact he turned to the dark side and rides a Giant with ShimaNO) and I think the race for 3rd is going to be the exciting one (given that there are a lot of guys who could come 5th but want to make that 5 a 3). I rate Discos chances of having someone (whoever they choose as the boss) up in the mix as they know what it takes at the tour.

The most crucial thing is surviving the first week without getting taken out in a mass pileup, whoever is left after that can start racing.

I think that it's going to be really close unless Jan has timed his form corectly, in which case it's his to lose. I think Basso will have a bad day or two and won't be in the running for the victory. The top 5 spots will come down to who has timed his fitness the best. One or two of the GC faves will have mis-timed his peak and will finish outside the top 10, it's just a matter of who.

Everybody's already named most of the favorites for the top 10, though I think Menchov will also be in the mix. There will probably be a Spanish rider that finishes in the top 10 who isn't touted among the favorites, probably a Saunier or Astana rider, possibly Contador or Marchante.

I really think you'll see Valverde in the podium mix. Despite what some think he's improved his TTing quite a bit. In any case, I think he and Basso may be fighting it out for yellow in the coming years.

Did anyone else notice that all 5 of the pre-Giro favorites will be at the Tour? Basso, Simoni, Savoldelli, Cunego, and DiLuca are all doing the double.

The question is, if Floyd or Levi (the only US riders with a real shot) do podium, will you own up to being wrong w/o rationalizing or making excuses?

Of course everything here is skewed towards American athletes. I can see how it would get to you...hell, sometimes it even bothers me & I'm from here. It's only natural though - the vast majority of the people who post here are from the US.

If this was a Spanish forum, there would be talk about Jan and Ivan, and the rest of the discussion would focus on Mayo, Valverde, Mancebo, etc..., and non-Spanish riders on Spanish teams, like Vino.

I guess I'd just be surprised if you really didn't think either of those guys even had a shot at the podium. I mean, if it weren't for Vino's heroics on the final stage last year, Levi would have finished 5th. Another thing to think about in this Tour is the dearth of mountaintop finishes and the large amount of TT miles. For whatever reason, the Americans in the Euro peloton tend to excel in time trials. Personally, I just think you're trying to get people all riled up, like usual ;-)

Of course, but I seriously don't see it happening.

And if this was a german forum, maybe we would be talking about Kloden, is he racing? Kloden is my favorite UN-glorified domestique, that happened to win Paris-Nice and podium at the TdF. He would be a great leader either for Gerosteiner or Phonak, with Leipheimer or Landis riding for him he would have a shot at the win.

Kloden is on the tmobile team for the tour. I think he has 1 too many bad days to podium (at least based on last year) and frankly I haven't heard anything about him this year (other than he hasn't done much).

"Floyd will climb with Basso and TT with Der Jan."

He'll do neither.

Hell I don't know who is going to win but based on all this spirited debate we should all agree this is going to be one hell of an exciting Tour!

I have to root for Levi since he lives here in town and goes to my gym during the off season. He's a heck of a nice guy.

I was talking to the discovery guys last week, they think Azevedo is going the strongest of them all. I'll let them know they're clueless next time I see them :-). Popovich has too many health problems this year, he's not well.

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Gerard Vroomen
3T.bike
OPEN cycle

"Congrats, you just made my list of people that amuse me by how highly they think of themselves.

Maybe I should tell you how many "Grand Tours" (not to be confused with major tours) I've watched, but I'll just let you know that I have raced in Europe most of my life.

Anyone that thinks that those 3 have a shot at a TdF podium is an ignorant homer. The truth hurts. "



Oh, grow up Paulo, you big F-ing troll.

I haven't said word one about what I think will happen, only about what the rest of the world thinks will happen.

Why do you think I think so disproportionately highly of myself? Because I think you are talking out of your ass on this topic? Good lord, man, if your ego in person was 1/2 the size of the one you present through this site, you would need to carry power tools to get your head through entrance ways.

Are all those European folks betting up the Landis odds on Unibet Homers? Are the Pro Tour DSs who mention Landis and Leipheimer on the list of favorites ignorant?

Of course, as Gerard pointed out, clearly you know the riders on the Discovery Team better than the staff of the team, so maybe you are in a position to second guess these folks...




- and suddenly, you are making a distinction between "Grand Tour" and "Major Tour?" Is this a sort-of-retraction of your clearly nonsensical claim that L&L "...don't have a chance of winning a major tour..." when they both already have?

Congrats on your Grand Tour watching. I'm assuming you mean "watched in person." Not sure how it's relevant, but I'm envious.

I'm one of those poor american slobs that grew up before we had any tour coverage. I remember waiting for a tiny article in the NYT, or the next issue of Winning to find out what was going on in Europe. Not nearly as cool. I have been to the Stanley Cup finals 6 or 7 times, though, and I got a chance to see Pele play Football in person - does this make me cool enough to talk to you?





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Tech writer/support on this here site. FIST school instructor and certified bike fitter. Formerly at Diamondback Bikes, LeMond Fitness, FSA, TiCycles, etc.
Coaching and bike fit - http://source-e.net/ Cyclocross blog - https://crosssports.net/ BJJ instruction - https://ballardbjj.com/

Gerard,

Azevedo is a great rider, he got 6th place at the TdF while riding for Lance, one of the nicest guys around, but not a team leader. He's really good when riding for the team, but not when the pressure is on him.

If Popovich is not well, then it's going to be a disappointing Tour for Discovery. I'me pretty sure they can take it :-)

It's always funny when somebody with a childish line of thought like yours tells somebody else to grow-up.

Just wish you are right! :-)
Just hope Azevedo can do the TdF of his life!

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_______________________________
The "Pocket Hercules" - jgrat

Technique sets the upper limit to where your fitness will take you...

You seem to have found "Fredly"'s button. Sort of like that easy button from Staples (a US company).

J

As much as I am loath to say this I actually agree with SAC on this one. The Ace is a very strong rider and a great climber, but he will have a hard time leading the team and will also lose quite a bit of time in the TTs. Remember when he finished 5th overall he also finished 4th on the Alp d'Huez uphill TT. He won't have that advantage this year and will probably lose a couple minutes to Jan & co. on each of the flat TTs.

Personally I think Discovery will do better then Paulo expects, but they certainly won't be winning the Tour this year...

"It's always funny when somebody with a childish line of thought like yours tells somebody else to grow-up. "

Well, as far as I can tell, childish, by your definition = "disagrees with Paulo?"

...and, funny enough, I don't actually disagree with you, really, as regards the riders who are in with a chance; what I disagree with is your telling everyone who does disagree with you that they are idiots. That is childish, and, of course, SOP for Paulo in Troll mode.

And as to "pushing my buttons" - well, heck - that would imply that a give a damn what Paulo's opinion is... and I really don't :0)





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Tech writer/support on this here site. FIST school instructor and certified bike fitter. Formerly at Diamondback Bikes, LeMond Fitness, FSA, TiCycles, etc.
Coaching and bike fit - http://source-e.net/ Cyclocross blog - https://crosssports.net/ BJJ instruction - https://ballardbjj.com/

[reply][reply]
Wasn't LeMond a domestique for a couple of years? [/reply]
And lets not forget Miguel Indurain, he was a domestique for several years for Pedro Delgado.[/reply]
And Bjarne Riis was a domestique for Laurent Fignon for several years

"The anger and will to throttle every one else on the course. Lance obviously had it in spades. Ullrich has it. Basso has it. Vino has it....but does he have the strategy and patience to ration his efforts when he needs to??"

What you are describing is something I see much more in Vino than the others. The way he won the last stage in 2005 and picked up a spot on gc was classic. Basso and Ulrich have the physical talent, but I've seen Ulrich get whipped by Lance every year and say he was "happy" with 2nd... and Basso seems like a fairly weak personality... not like the "Boss"... not like somebody who refuses to lose, especially when things go wrong.

I don't think Vino will win simply because he has never shown the raw talent... but he has the heart.

Landis? Maybe he has the attitude. His clashes with Lance indicated that he wasn't happy just being his "boy"... they are really too much alike. I also liked the way he worked Danielson this year in the TDG. But... his trainer is quoted as saying that the pressure is getting to him... not a good sign.

[reply]That's not surprising, since glorified domestiques like Landis, Hincapie and Leipheimer don't have a chance of winning a major Tour.[/reply]

Yea, you may be right. He is still 30 seconds back.

Good call. Muahahahahahahahahaha.



Note how he was quick to jump in and proclaim his brilliance yesterday....

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...earch_string;#899989

Disco stu

Outside, looking in, saying I told you so. The spectators... but I guess we can't all be players.

 

you still have a good chance of being right...

**yawn**

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"Yeah, no one likes a smartass, but we all like stars" - Thom Yorke


smartasscoach.tri-oeiras.com

About time you chimed in... :)