LEt's go back to the Tours of the last years. They still had some bad and worse days. There wasn't any consistency in their riding on the big mountain stages. And I won't even mention when Landis was USPS leader for the Vuelta or Leipheimer's first Tour for Rabo.

They were in the "etc..." ;)

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From a cyclingnews.com interview with Hincapie:


“Going into the Tour, myself and Yaroslav [Popovych] will probably be the leaders. José Azevedo as well... he has been top five before, so you can't really leave him out,” he states. Double Giro d’Italia winner Paolo Salvoldelli has also been confirmed for the team, so he too has the ability to ride strongly.

I guess George is as clueless as I am.

The poll has picked up about 20 votes and still dead even. Is somebody messing with this?

http://www.bikesportmichigan.com/

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

That interview is given exactly for the clueless like yourself to believe. Only the clueless think that a major cycling team is going into the biggest cycling race in the world and has 4 leaders, or will wait to see how the race will play out to find out who's the leader.

That's a recipe for disaster (but what do I know, I'm not a DS). Having multiple team leaders has worked once in the last 20 years, in 1986.

Start with a designated team leader. If that doesn't work out, switch leaders, but at no time should you have multiple protected riders. Then you have a too many chiefs, not enough indians scenario.

Even when Jan won his first tour, he started that tour working for Riis. When it became apparent that Riis didn't have it, the leadership role was passed.

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"That's not surprising, since glorified domestiques like Landis, Hincapie and Leipheimer don't have a chance of winning a major Tour. "

The Dauphine isn't a major tour? What about Paris-Nice? The Tour of Germany (in front of a very motivated/on form Ullrich?)

I'm surprised to read such a stereotypically American comment from you - Landis and Leipheimer have both won "major" tours already - just not 3 week tours - and Leipheimer has a podium place in a three week tour.

Neither one of those riders can possibly be considered a "glorified Domestique" - that description displays a shocking level of ignorance, if you mean it seriously. Leipheimer has been one of the most consistantly successful stage race riders in the world the last couple of seasons, and Landis has multiple week-long stage race wins already this season.

Favorites? No, of course not, but Leipheimer and Landis are at least in with a chance, as the betting lines reflect...





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Yes, but over the years many dominant riders have not survived unscathed to Paris -- or even made it to the starting line. To me, that is one of the most amazing accomplishments of LA's string. Would anyone consider an even money wager on the field against Ullrich/Basso? If not, what would the odds need to be?

I agree neither excelled last year in the mountains - especially on Courchevel when they should have been in the final selection. But again both are improving this year over last.

Here are Leipheimer's results:

Tour 2002 (Rabo) - 8th

Tour 2003 (Rabo) - crash DNF

Tour 2004 (Rabo) - 9th

Tour 2005 (Gero) - 6th

Definately solid and 9th in Tour debut is pretty good I think.

Personally I think all of the following riders have about an equal chance of finishing in the top 5 and should be pretty even if Basso / Ullrich have a couple bad days.

Floyd, Levi, Vino, Valverde, Cadel Evans, Mancebo and Popo.

Valverde should be included, but he won't win, nor will Vino, but his attacking style could shake things up, especially for guys like Leipheimer and Landis, who've never been able to accelerate with the best climbers.

Basso has never shown the ability to put significant time into Ullrich in the mountains when both are in shape, but Ullrich took out Basso fairly easily riding below his ability & while still gaining fitness at the Giro - that's very telling in a TT dominant tour.

Ullrich by 2 1/2 minutes, followed by Basso, then it's a coin flip for the third podium spot. The more interesting race will be the prologue - will Millar take it in his comeback, will Ullrich throw down right off the bat, or will someone else be wearing yellow for the first, really, really boring week?

I'm still thinking "the list" will come out of Spain next week, and then the tour could be completely scrambled. You know there are some big names on those packs of blood.

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

Based on Tours past, Basso is very good at following (usually Armstrong) up the mountain but not attacking. I think Basso will again follow the pure climbers up the major climbs and I also think Jan will keep contact; this will also be true for Floyd and possibly Levi. This is why the 2 long TT are paramount for whoever plans to win the 06 TdF. The person who does the best in the 2 time trials will win and I think that will be Jan. I'm still confused will Landis, if he returns to his spring form then I think he could be second with Basso third.

Dave in VA

Let's get this straigth, you're calling Paris-Nice and Tour of Germany "major tours" and calling me clueless. Give me a break.

And yes, I am stereotyping and guess what, almost everyone posting on this thread is doing a great job of fitting that stereotype, even Ian and he's canadian! If Landis or Leip or Hincapie were not american, you guys would have a problem even knowing their names. That is why Valverde is seldom mentioned, even if he's a much better rider that those americans, and with a lot of room for improvement.

Is anyone seriously considering Hincapie to be a threat for the overall?? Heck I hope he surprises me, but I doubt that he has what it takes to make the jump from top 15 last year to top 3 this year. Not at his age.

Paris-Nice and the Tour of Germany are significant tours, and are well respected races that are difficult to win. Not Major Tours with a capital M, but they are near the top of that next level down from the big 3.

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Not me. The poll reflects that sentiment too.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

As much as I'll be cheering for Floyd, Levi and the other Americans, I think it is more wishful thinking that any of them will be on the podium unless the favourites crash.

top 10 Order of Finish

Jan, Basso, Mayo, Valverdi, Vino, Levi, Floyd, couple other guys, 10th- some discovery guy.

Seeing George battle with the big dogs for a top place would be awesome. I'll wish for it, but wouldn't bet on it.

Don't base your assessment of Basso's tendencies based on what he was able to do against Armstrong. Very few were able to atack Armstrong on the mountains and actually stay away to the finish, and no-one was able to do that day-after-day.

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HA!

I actually think Landis will finish 3rd and Valverde 4th. I was more impressed with Landis before he blew up on Ventoux, but at least he had the foresight to ease back for the rest of the race. I think he's fit, smart and has a good coach to work with (and i'm not talking about Ventura).

Just so you can mock my cycling knowledge here are my picks for top 10:

Jan Ullrich Ivan Basso Floyd Landis Valverde Levi Leipheimer Paco Mancebo Cadel Evans Popovich Vino George Hincapie

Oh and the the guy who said the first week will be boring - i think you're way off base - it's going to be like 5 spring classics in a row with Boonen vs. McEwen vs. Thor

Now if you really want to talk about over-extending expectations who are the idiots at FIFA that have USA ranked 5th. Wow.

Mr. Paulo is right, and I like to add Iban Mayo to the "because-we-do-not-understand-what-they-say-we-never-mention-them-on-ST-outsiders".

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Fuck a duck and try to fly

The first week is never boring. Actually, the green jersey competition is the only one that has consistently been a race all the way to Paris in recent years, ever since Eric the Mighty loosened his grip on it.

Although Boonen will clean up this year.

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I think Savoldelli could be the strongest Disco guy in the Tour - certainly his Giro was subpar and I'm sure he'd like to erase that.

He need to get into a break - maybe gain 5-6 min to have a shot at the podium though.

1st week could be interesting for long breaks - I can see CSC & T-mobile eyeing each other -waiting for the chase that may not transpire until it's too late. No one else will be expected to control the race.

Lots of potential top 10 guys out there - who'll break thru to the podium? I like Evans chances (and I'm not Aussie!).

Only the clueless are, hence my point.

And what about capital M and small t? Small t and capital M? You need to be clear when you write it, because some people might have problems.

Quick-Step and Lotto-Davitamon, maybe Credit Agricole will control the race in the first week. Don't expect any breaks to succeed, although I do predict that at least one break of 100kms or more will be caught inside the final kilometer.

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The first week will be Davitamon vs. Quick-Step trying to control the race. No Belgian team is going to let a big break get way up the road in a race that goes through Belgium.

I think TMobile & CSC will have it easy the first week.

So who's clueless? Don't be shy, name names.

OK. (not all inclusive, I don't have time to check the entire UCI calendar) This is my personal ranking system, it does not necessarily align with UCI classifications.

Major Tours: France, Italy, Spain

major Tours: Suisse, Germany, Dauphine, Paris Nice, Portugal

Minor Tours: other european 1 week tours (whatever they are), driesdagge de panne,

minor Tours: tour de georgia, etc (US based)

major tours: paris-brest-paris

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They are major tours - just not "Grand Tours." The 3 three week tours stand in a category of their own, but clearly the Tour of Germany and Paris-Nice are in the next ranking - and, I reiterate, one of your "glorified domestiques" has already podiumed in a grand tour. Face it, you just can't support this nonsense.

BTW, here's the current betting line from Unibet:

Basso, I 2.10 Ullrich, J 3.50 Valverde, A 11.00 Vinokourov, A 13.00 Landis, F

Must be all those Americans bumbing up Landis' numbers, right? (...somehow I don't think so...)

Have you, perchance, been reading the top pro-tour rider's picks for the TDF? In interviews, nearly all of them seem to disagree with you, putting both Landis and Leipheimer in with a podium chance.

And, "If Landis or Leip or Hincapie were not american, you guys would have a problem even knowing their names" is just ridiculous. There are several people on this board who not only know a lot about world cycling, but have raced at a high level in Europe and elsewhere. Hell, I watched the last TT of last year's TDF on a TV mounted in the side of a team bus, after 5 hours of racing through the Dolomites - which means very little, except that your assumptions of nationalist parochialism are just another form of prejudice, and just as ignorant as any other.





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