Inflation is the big issue

Yup. It is clear that the GOP has no plan other than throwing rocks and giving money to rich people and corporations.

https://www.nytimes.com/...inflation-plans.html

Watch out, I think every Phillies appearance in the WS has been followed by a recession.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Even if they had a plan that would work, they have every incentive to not do it. If the GOP takes power anywhere, one of their main goals would be to tank the economy. They know a weak economy in 2024 is good for them, so they will absolutely not want to fix anything. They know they will be rewarded for the damage they do, so they will do damage.

We see this with them threatening to default on the debt, which would absolutely rank the economy. Not to mention we know one sure way to increase inflation is to default on a nations debt.

That is just them being competent. If they have a small majority, they are going to be so divided they may not even get a budget passed at all!

People don’t understand how bad for the economy a GOP house and/or Senate would be.

I don't think think this is the Dems fault considering it is worldwide phenomenon.

What you think and what I think are immaterial to people buying groceries, gas, etc.

The GOP has been excellent at convincing millions of Americans that Biden controls gas prices, the price of food, and baby formula. They hope Americans continue to suffer so it will help them in the midterms. Once in power they will focus on the important things........Hunter Biden's laptop, pedophile pizza parlors, and Venezuelan backed voter fraud.

What about record corporate profits and the acceleration of layoffs to keep them coming? I don’t think that is immaterial.

Generally, the next phase of this cycle is not pretty.

I think we are headed to a recession within the next couple of months, regardless of the elections.

I'm starting to see construction projects getting put on hold "while we wait to see what the economy does"

I know, fucking Biden right?

In completely unrelated news... Shell petroleum announced record Q3 profits today.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

So.....

I already covered this for Dan

I don't know what you covered. Corporate greed is what it should be called.

But yeah, fucking Biden.

I mean, fucking Trudeau.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Explain how you arrive at a determination of greed....

Exactly.

Inflation driving Hispanic, Black voters to GOP as Americans postpone vacations, eat out less: poll | Fox Business

I have come to the determination that it's corporate greed because it is corporate greed.

The company I work for sells automobiles. Recently we had an executive tell us to start adding stuff to used vehicles. Parts that customers might not otherwise buy... carbon fibre exhaust tips and so on.

Why? Because we can. We know we have customers by the balls so we're squeezing them.

I know this is not just happening at the company I work for. It's happening everywhere where companies can get away with it.

I call that corporate greed. Perhaps you have another term for it.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Economic illiteracy used to be a Democrat thing.

It is amazing how fast Republicans have captured and weaponized it.

Isn't Shell a non-U.S. based Company? I agree we should be pissed a foreign Company is selling a product in the U.S. with record earnings. Those foreign companies are causing our inflation. We need to pull those profits back to the U.S.

Don't worry, the US majors are also recording record profits. Exxon reported a profit of $17.9 billion – the highest quarterly profit reported by any oil company in history . Chevron reported $11.6 billion.

Very true

i don't remember dan feeling that your explanation made sense.

---

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

So in your mind, what do you think caused the record earnings for shell?

Not really, most folks have decided, and more importantly, folks largely discount any and all economic data that doesn't align with their tribal need to attack the other side.

New GDP number not nearly as positive as Biden White House's spin. Here's why (msn.com)


net of net I would say positive for everyone including Dems with midterm. But see attached for some counterpoints.

From the link

The third quarter GDP report does not show a stronger consumer or a healthy business climate. Rather, consumer expenditures grew at an anemic 1.4% and business investment fell for the second quarter in a row, dropping 8.5%. These two categories combined for a decrease of 0.62 percentage points to GDP while government spending grew 2.4%. Even including the nonproductive government sector, these three categories combined contributed -0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.

Democrats’ democracy alarmism flops with voters (msn.com)


The democracy is under attack argument doesn't seem to be impactful as some had hoped. The abortion argument is getting lost in the inflation and costs of living problems.


Pelosi’s hearings into the Jan. 6 riot not only served to keep Trump in the foreground, they also propped up the ongoing Democratic campaign theme that American democracy itself is under attack. Ever obliging, the media have perpetuated this alarmism, tying together charges that the GOP aims to suppress voting, that various candidates tried to overturn the 2020 election and that the very structure of our government – the Electoral College and makeup of the Supreme Court, especially – puts our democracy in peril.
The public isn’t buying it. Political pundit Blake Hounshell recently wrote in the New York Times that “democracy is not shaping up to be the driver of votes that many on the left hoped it would be.” Clearly disappointed, he concedes that inflation is more top of mind. Yup, when 82 percent of the country says they are having to cut back on food, the soaring cost of living is probably a more compelling issue.
My thesis has always been people don't care about anything else if they can't eat, get to work or put a good roof over their head. Those seem to be the kinds of things people are having trouble with and now blame the D for. Will see in the midterms if my thesis holds up.

I read that piece and the author didn’t mention why that is bad. The author seemed to be fine with that result.

The author failed to also say how ridiculous it would be to vote for GOP, since they will do everything possible to make the economy worse.

Those are important things the author should have included. Unless the author is ok with those things.

It was driven in large part by net exports. That is most likely not sustainable. Or not as sustainable as consumer and business spending.

It may kick the can down the road a quarter and allow for other change.

Again, from my view it's a net positive.

But there are still some major negative underpinnings which need to be addressed. And aren't going to be by someone in charge who can't/won't even be honest about where we are and how we got here. If that changes (because of midterms) maybe we can begin down the proper road(s)

Who exactly will be in charge, after the midterms, that will “be honest about where we are and how we got here”?

same guy who's in charge now.

How would being honest help if there is a Republican house that will actively prevent Biden from fixing anything and will actively try and make it worse?

If people were being honest they would admit that we have a market economy. The idea that the president is somehow “in charge” of the economy is just delusional and is further evidence that many in today’s GOP have a very limited understanding of how the economy works.

I think you and Nutcase should sit here and agree with each other. You've only got a couple weeks before getting your ass handed to you. It seems like you and he are a little premature with your sore loser talk already.

After the mid terms the President will be forced to work with a body who isn't going to allow him to continue to spend trillions of dollars on things that don't stimulate our market economy. If he wants to continue to lie about how things are and how none of it is his fault he is free to continue to do that. Certainly Nutcase will be here to carry his water.

Your party is facing a generational set of losses over the last and the next two elections. And you've painted yourself into a serious corner with a geriatric leadership base and a fruit loop multiple minority in the second seat that you won't be able to work around. You and Nutcase (and the President) can sit here being "right" after the midterms. Or you can start to do something about it.


I'm good with what I see happening now.

The last? Huh? The Democrats got control of the House, Senate, and White House in the last election.

You seem very confident about the midterms. Instead of tossing out childish insults how about some facts? If this is going to be a "Generational" loss in November how many seats will the Democrats lose in the house? Trump lost 40. Obama lost 63. How many will Sleepy Joe lose?

You also seem very confident that the GOP has the policies that will "right the ship".......but never seem to mention those policies.

There are no policies. There is no plan.

I mean other than to make things even shittier for the average American for the next two years so that the average American will vote in a GOP president.

Somehow these fuckwits think that is good.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

What is a multiple minority and why is it an insult?

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

What incentive does the GOP have actually address any issue they get control of either house? Just name me one incentive.

Let alone enough of an incentive that outweighs having a trash fire economy in 2024 to hang on Joe Biden.

Face it a vote for the GOP in this election is a vote for economic suffering for many Americans. But you seem to actually be wanting that. Which is fucking wild.

Also what exactly do you mean by "a fruit loop multiple minority"?

It may not even be done through competence. If the GOP only win a small minority, the house will be absolute chaos. There is no way they are going to be able to keep the bat shit crazy members in line. MTG will require billions in any budget to defend against Jewish space laser. Which means they won't have her vote and they won't have Democrats votes for their budget to gut social security and defund the IRS, so they can't lose any votes from any of their other crazies, which there are so many. So there will not even be a budget that can pass the house. So the government shuts down just because Republicans can't work together. Do people not remember the absolute shit show the house was following 2016? They had trouble finding someone that even wanted to be speaker. It will be so much worse now, there are so many new jackasses.

It is insane to give this absolute nut jobs power, but some people just want to see the right people hurt.

It speaks exceptionally bad of someone to throw that out as an attempted insult. It is the kind of thing that is not possible to come back from.

If a good friend used that as an insult we would no longer be friends.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Pretty much like this.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

It would seem that Tyler does not want to answer. Let me provoke him into explaining his way out of the hole he dug. He has had nothing good to say about VP Harris since whenever. She is the daughter of a Black American father and an Indian mother--multiple minority. What her ancestry has to do with her performance and the why of it does beg for an explanation

German Inflation Unexpectedly Soars

https://www.bloomberg.com/...ource=uverify%20wall

10.4% , food costs up 20.3%

Clearly Biden and Trudeau's fault.......but don't worry, Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker will fix it.

In Liz We Truss will fix it..... oh wait

How long does sustained inflation have to go on before major publications stop screwing up the headlines?

"Consumer prices jumped 11.6% in October"

<scrolls down>

"Consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy rose 11.6% from a year earlier"

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Agree, I hate that too.

On Topic: US Economy

Jobs/Wages:
I still see almost every store 'hiring' and wages are way, way up as advertised.
This must mean they need people work and sell their products, so they can't be not selling products and making enough money to keep the doors open.
Does that mean the supply chain isn't all that bad or do employers just need people to do basic stuff?

Mortgage Rates/Housing:
I've watched a lot of 10/20% price cuts here on homes for sale in the last month and mortgage rates continue to climb, now above 7%

Inflation:
If almost everywhere is hiring (Grocery, retail, etc) workers they must be selling products and receiving products to sell (supply chain) yet hiring more people costs more money and then they have to charge more for products which puts the prices back up and costs to the consumers.

GDP:
If US businesses are hiring (production, retail, agriculture) they must be doing business and producing products. Yet they can't raise prices on these products without causing inflation, so can they cut costs (negotiate, labor, wages, etc)

What gives in this cycle?

It works both ways. Biden says inflation only up 0.1 percent or something in july and august. But up 10 percent plus in the last year. So inflation only went from 10 to 10.1 percent annually over the month. Yeah! says all the shoppers.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Yeah! say all the companies making huge profits.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

I'd say that all gov'ts in major countries share some of the blame. When major countries like US, Germany, France, Britain etc all over stimulate their economies at the same time this is the result. It is clear they did it because it was popular to do during covid. Small countries like Canada get sucked along for the ride. Small countries did have policy options such as Canada could have produced and transported natural gas to tidewater but didn't do thus shooting themselves and the Europe in the foot. Germany comes begging for natural gas and we promise hydrogen that we have not even started making yet. In addition to all that it was/is popular to not produce enough oil and gas in these countries and in the case of Europe depend on Russian oil and gas.

Smarter countries like Norway are cashing in. As is the Netherlands although they are killing their highly productive agricultural sector due to climate initiatives.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

The Amazon headquarters here put their office building on hold a couple of months ago. At the time they said to reconfigure the offices for a more hybrid working environment. Today they announce they are doing a hiring freeze here. They promised 5,000 corporate jobs and they have only hired 2,500.

But apartments and hotels are still being built here.

I also read today in the legal press, that at least one Big Law firm has started firing associate attorneys, calling it for performance instead of layoffs.

---

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

How did the stimulus from 18 months ago cause Germany's energy prices to increase by 19%, food prices to increase by 17%, and CPI be 11.6% in October?

As for Germany producing oil and gas....they don't. It was a major mistake for them to get hook on Russian gas. Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden warned them repeatedly that exactly what is happening today would happen. They didn't listen.

One of these things is not like the others.

Interesting strategy, Cotton.

Gas prices suck. Crime is ridiculous. Inflation is through the roof. Housing purchases are impossible. Food prices are soaring. We're as close to nuclear war as we've been in many of our lifetimes. The stock market is shit. But don't elect the other guy because things could get bad?

Very persuasive.

Oh they can get much worse if democracy crumbles.

Depends on who the other guy is, if you haven't noticed they are trying to get election deniers elected as SoS, you know the people who certify elections, if that happens they can try and overthrow an election they lose, think this is hyperbole? Go ahead and elect them, and good luck to you. So it comes down to what do you want? A democracy, free and fair elections or lower food/gas prices and as it looks right now it's neck and neck. and I'm gobsmacked that someone like Mark Finchem could get elected to anything let alone responsible for certifying elections, but here we are, I know people are hurting and that sucks, but right now maga must be stopped at all costs.

My wife has her new business and its definitely non-essentials. We haven’t seen any slowdown in purchasing the last couple months. It’s hard to tell if we’re not getting as big of a holiday pick up as we would expect since this is the first year she is doing this full time. However, it’s not fallen off as I would have expected given purchasing power decrease that we are seeing. So you’re right it’s weird. I’m not sure what gives.

I think the McDonald’s by us is hiring at $19 an hour. I mean holy crap. I started my first job at 5 an hour or so in 1998, inflation adjusted that is 9.17. So its a major increase there. At some point people will start taking the jobs. We only do annual raises, I’ll be interested to see what we do then. It should be hopefully clear by then how the economy is doing with the rate hikes that we have had.

In Colorado, we haven’t seen the home pricing really drop yet which is interesting. You’d think there would be some relief there given the mortgage rates. I’m definitely glad we locked in at 2.8 we did for our house here. There is no way we are moving anytime soon now given how little we are paying in interest comparatively for our house.

Beside stopping funding to Ukraine, and letting their buddy Putin take over a sovereign country, what specifically will the GOP do to address these issues when they control Congress?

Let's play.

What specifically have the Dems done that warrants reelection?

It's hyperbole because you've lumped in all people who had questions about the 2020 election as "election deniers". For one example, if you are in PA and you don't like what PA did with mail-in ballots you might say they PA legislature acted improperly and there are ballots counted that shouldn't have been. You might want that rectified before the next election and you might talk about that being important. That doesn't make you an election denier.

You guys need to stop with the hyperbole.

You didn't answer the question.

What specifically will Greene, Oz, Walker, Boebert, Vance, Johnson, Gibbs, Majewski, Mastriano, Cox, Palin, etc do when they control Congress? You seem convinced they have a better plan but cannot explain what that plan is.

Uh no.

You don't just get first in vig. I'm not convinced of anything, but I'm asking you to convince me why the group that has overseen where we are today should be reelected. And I'm asking you to give me something more than the other side will be worse or the other side has no plan.

You're in power. What is your plan? What are you going to do?

If you look at global metrics over the last year or so, the US is doing far better than most other countries. Including things like inflation.

I am not sure if being graded against your peers in similar positions is the best metric but it certainly is a pretty good one.

Not surprised you cannot answer the question, even Conservatives realize the GOP has no plan.

Republicans’ Plan to Fix the Economy Is … We’re Still Waiting
https://www.bloomberg.com/...n-to-fix-the-economy




This is from Allison Schrager, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering economics. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a Conservative think tank.

There is a reason Republicans can never explain what their plan is.......they do not have one besides throwing rocks.

I'll play - They don't deserve to be reelected, but...

They don't threaten democracy either. They don't deny the outcome of the last election. They understand that Jan 6th was a very serious attack on our form of government, and they don't excuse those people. They didn't make phone calls to GA, and they actually support law enforcement. They aren't trying to undermine the medical profession's ability to care for women. They actually care about the health care programs. They understand that there is more than one religion in the US and all of them must be respected.

I will be voting for Kathy Hochul on Tuesday, as bad as she is, because the guy running against her is the opposite of all those things. I'm a registered republican, but until that side understands the system they are representing I will have to side with the opposition for a while.

---

"...the street finds its own uses for things"

Noone on the ballot on Tuesday can do anything about any of those things except very tangentially crime and the stock market. And guess what? Crime isn't ridiculous and the stock market isn't shit. Comparing stock market performance by president is one of the dumbest possible exercises but if that's how you're going to vote, the best return at this point in a presidential term was Obama and the full term MVP was Clinton. Biden's behing Trump and tracking right alongside GHWB and, of course, crushing the disastrous performance of GWB. It's honestly pretty depressing listening to folks who plan to vote like my 2 year old: "I want everything to be perfect all the time and if it's not I'm going to ignore everything that's going on in the world, refuse to engage in any thoughtful analysis, blame you and throw my toys!" David Frum had a better analogy:

https://twitter.com/...8VdZUyWqmB5sSC7GQVKA

"A woman and her grandson are walking on the beach. A sudden wave pulls the boy to sea. Distraught, she prays, "Lord God, return him safe, and I will keep your mitzvot and give to charity." Another wave deposits the boy, wet but well. The woman turns to heaven. "He had a hat.""

Re. crime specifically:

https://www.pewresearch.org/...t-does-the-data-say/

(click through to the article if you're inclined to complain about the selection of crimes shown below)

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Wrong again. I'm choosing not to answer. I'm holding you accountable for the question I asked you first. You don't get to dodge my question with a question.

What, specifically, is the plan if D's are elected to address crime, the border, inflation, gas prices, nuclear war, etc, etc.

You have the big-boy pants. You want to keep the big-boy pants. What are you going to do. And answer without using the words "Trump, GOP, or Republicans."

So you think Kathy Hochul has performed well enough on crime in NY to keep her there?

I think I'm safe in general. I don't like people that use scare tactics to get what they want. I ride the subway regularly - never seen a problem. The statistics just aren't there.

No address my other points.

---

"...the street finds its own uses for things"

Why do you lie? I clearly asked you first. You have no answer, so you launch into this bizarre deflection dance.

If you read this thread, and others, you will see that I have addressed this topic in depth. It is clear that the US economy is performing far better the vast majority of the Western democracies. I have posted repeatedly about the positive things the Democrats have done. I like the release of the SPR. I like the PACT act, the IRA, the CHIPS and Science Act, Safer Communities Act. I like that America is no longer an embarrassment on the world stage. I dislike how large the ARP was. I dislike performative stunts like student debt relief that will go nowhere.

You are unable to explain what the GOP's plan is because they have no plan.

[quote JFHJR

Wrong again. I'm choosing not to answer. I'm holding you accountable for the question I asked you first. You don't get to dodge my question with a question.

What, specifically, is the plan if D's are elected to address crime, the border, inflation, gas prices, nuclear war, etc, etc.

You have the big-boy pants. You want to keep the big-boy pants. What are you going to do. And answer without using the words "Trump, GOP, or Republicans."[/quote]
I'll answer though you obviously didn't direct the question at me and I don't speak for who you responded to.

crime,

Crime barely needs addressing. GOP scare mongering notwithstanding. See my post above. To the extent the current historically low crime levels are deemed too high the right response is to continue to do the only thing that has always proved effective to reduce crime - improve the economy. Crime goes up in the Summer (more when it's hotter). It goes up when there's economic dislocation and anxiety. We're just emerging from a once in a lifetime pandemic that shook the world economy like a snow globe. The right response? Take a beat. Wait. See where we actually are and respond deliberately if at all.

the border,

Pass a comprehensive immigration plan that Ds have been pushing for for decades. Right size our legal immigration so that we don't have to deal with the inflationary pressure caused by a stupidly tight job market and don't have the hypocrisy of GOP congress members and candidates bitching about illegal immigration while employing illegal immigrants in their business ventures. Fix all of that then "get tough" on the border. I'm not averse to a nation wide asylum seeker distribution compact but TX etc. have to back immigration reform first. The only reason we don't make progress on this issue is that the GOP would rather maintain a permanent (though for 80% of the country non-existent) "crisis" on the border to make political hay.

inflation,

Wait it out. Sorry, not sexy enough for you I'm sure but that's the reality. We're doing better than most peer countries. We should be grateful. Vote for whatever's behind the curtain if it makes you feel better but there is no answer here.


gas prices,

Exactly what we're doing. Increase domestic production and accelerate the shifty away from a resource the price of which we'll never control. Of course, Americans want cheaper gas yesterday and will vote for whoever pretends they have a plan to achieve that but they're lying. Our current course is the correct one.

nuclear war,

The Biden admin has rebuilt NATO, re-established the moral leadership and soft power of the US. I'm not comfortable with a heightened risk of nuclear war but I'm far more comfortable with that marginally increased risk that I would be with a GOP congress cutting off funding to Ukraine, handing an ally over to fucking Russia and putting the stability of the rest of Europe fully in play. I still can't believe the GOP has become the party of geneflucting to Putin. How did we get here? What happened? What would Reagan say?

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

What are the actual crime statistics for NY State that you believe support the idea that she hasn't? I'm not aware of anything useful. Much less anything that cross-references and compares to other states.

I urge you to read this, about NYC specifically (which is obviously NOT NY state)

https://www.bloomberg.com/...-crime-stat-reality/

This is an amazing chart:

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Spot on Bretom. Agree with all of your points.

Crime is surging (in Fox News coverage) - The Washington Post

It's a bit amsuing that back during the #BLM protests (and I'm talking about the legal, peaceful protests that dominated), there was a lot of finger-wagging about how they needed to "look at the data" and that disproportionate police violence against black people barely exists.

I wonder how many of the finger-waggers are now hysterical about perceived crime.

Ok, answer me this, what incentive do Republicans have to fix any of those issues? Versus being able to blame Democrats for them?

New York has a slightly lower violent crime rate than Florida, do people ask if Desantis has done enough on crime. New Yorks violent crime rate is better than most of the other states in the nation. Alasksa, Tennessee, and Arkansas are over twice the rate of New York.

What you describe in your example is a person with a generic policy dispute. They don't believe universal mail-in ballots are appropriate( I assume you are referring to 77) in PA. And just because they want that rectified(reversing a piece of legislation that was passed with bipartisan support), does not mean they have "questions" about the 2020 election. That's a big stretch in perspective and 2 different people. Come up with better example. The benign person in your example wouldn't "question the election", they would accept the results and seek to reform the law. They get lumped in as election deniers because they are supporting people who continue to lie about the results of the election.

Another strong jobs report today. Unemployment at near record lows. Infrastructure investment will help create jobs and keep the economy moving. A slowdown is inevitable no matter who is in power because the Fed has to hike rates to quell inflation. The Fed is independent and the chair of the Fed was nominated by Trump.

So what, exactly, are you hoping the GOP will do for the economy? What are their economic policies that you like? Where can I read about them?

Expected response: either more deflection or <crickets>

---

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"

To the thread. You are all right. There is no crime, no inflation, no looming war. I can't believe I've been so misled.

The stock market is off 20% on the year.
Bonds are off 17%
Inflation is at 8%
And housing is completely unaffordable.

This is the worst era for savers and investors (except slum lords) since the early 80s.

To be clear...

Trump is responsible for a healthy part of this.


But the government response to COVID (largely a Democrat thing) also played a major role.

The response to COVID may have saved millions of lives.

But it also caused a 25% real erosion in the real wealth of those who saved for retirement with stocks, bonds, CDs and cash.

The party of corruption, lies, stupidity and hatred (the current GOP) is not a solution.

But there needs to be a legitimate alternative to the Democratic party.

Lots of people, myself among them, wrote you lengthy thoughtful replies, quoted statistics and asked you challenging questions. No-one claimed there is no crime or inflation (though I personally don't think there's a looming war). Your response is deeply lame and completely inadequate.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Called it.

---

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"

No argument from me that a multi-party system would be healthier. But is your main gripe really that we should have been able to coordinate a response to COVID that save millions of lives and left everyone's savings completely intact. Even though no-one anywhere in the world was able to do that? Again, David Frum's "He had a hat" joke upthread seems so so apt.

Someone approaching retirement now might have started saving in the early 80s. The S&P is up 2,500% since then. If you were retiring tomorrow I appreciate it sucks to imagine retiring with X in January and seeing that become Y in 11 months. But anyone in that situation should take a step back, divorce their emotion from the math and realize how lucky they are. They got 5 numbers and won the lottery by being invested in the US all their lives. They didn't get the powerball by withdrawing it all in January. It's not a tragedy. And if they're that close to retirement and eating those types of losses they should also fire their FA.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Yup.

JFHJR's flaccid response is reflection of the shallowness of today's GOP. The "Party of ideas" is no more, it is now the party of fear and grievance.

Let's also note that it's a bit unfair for someone to complain about high housing prices in this context. For many people, their biggest asset, by far, is their house (not their stock portfolio). The price of housing is a problem for people just entering the housing market, but has been a huge boon to those who have been saving all along -- by buying a house.

we are now into the "loser talk" stage of death. The denial is now over. We are now in the "well, yeah we fucked it up but what are you going to do about it" phase.

This follows 2 years of "nothing that we have done about it has caused any of this" phase. But now we want to know what YOU are going to do about it.

Did I mention Jan 6th and abortion? OK covered.

And don't forget, the party of blame everyone else for your problems.

---

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

I started in the early 80s, and am now retired. One retirement investment idea is to keep enough in relatively stable and readily accessible investments to tide one over during a downturn in the market. Too many people are forced to sell off depreciated assets near market bottoms. Let it ride and assume that the historical gains will average out the lows by the time you need those market-invested funds. So, don't fire your FA unless your "now" retirement funds are in the market.

---

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"

I'll answer though you obviously didn't direct the question at me and I don't speak for who you responded to.

crime,

Crime barely needs addressing. GOP scare mongering notwithstanding. See my post above. To the extent the current historically low crime levels are deemed too high the right response is to continue to do the only thing that has always proved effective to reduce crime - improve the economy. Crime goes up in the Summer (more when it's hotter). It goes up when there's economic dislocation and anxiety. We're just emerging from a once in a lifetime pandemic that shook the world economy like a snow globe. The right response? Take a beat. Wait. See where we actually are and respond deliberately if at all.

the border,

Pass a comprehensive immigration plan that Ds have been pushing for for decades. Right size our legal immigration so that we don't have to deal with the inflationary pressure caused by a stupidly tight job market and don't have the hypocrisy of GOP congress members and candidates bitching about illegal immigration while employing illegal immigrants in their business ventures. Fix all of that then "get tough" on the border. I'm not averse to a nation wide asylum seeker distribution compact but TX etc. have to back immigration reform first. The only reason we don't make progress on this issue is that the GOP would rather maintain a permanent (though for 80% of the country non-existent) "crisis" on the border to make political hay.

inflation,

Wait it out. Sorry, not sexy enough for you I'm sure but that's the reality. We're doing better than most peer countries. We should be grateful. Vote for whatever's behind the curtain if it makes you feel better but there is no answer here.


gas prices,

Exactly what we're doing. Increase domestic production and accelerate the shifty away from a resource the price of which we'll never control. Of course, Americans want cheaper gas yesterday and will vote for whoever pretends they have a plan to achieve that but they're lying. Our current course is the correct one.

nuclear war,

The Biden admin has rebuilt NATO, re-established the moral leadership and soft power of the US. I'm not comfortable with a heightened risk of nuclear war but I'm far more comfortable with that marginally increased risk that I would be with a GOP congress cutting off funding to Ukraine, handing an ally over to fucking Russia and putting the stability of the rest of Europe fully in play. I still can't believe the GOP has become the party of geneflucting to Putin. How did we get here? What happened? What would Reagan say?[/quote]
To summarize:

Crime: barely needs addressing

Border: It's the Rs fault

Inflation: Suck it up, we're better than everyone else

Gas prices: Increase domestic production???

Nuclear war: We need more endless war.

OK. I'll agree with everything you said if you agree to vote for the candidates who will increase domestic gas production.

Tyler try again. Repubs mostly do not have solutions because they kowtow to big business, religious right and folks that lost jobs because labor is cheaper elsewhere. I’ll grant you answers aren’t easy. But most nut jobs now emerging from repub ranks could not graduate top of their classes in anything other than lying.

Thank you Joe Biden!



https://www.politico.com/...s-biden-oil-00064251

Do you ever keep reading an article after you read the section that confirms your bias?

My bias is to facts.

The fact is domestic oil production is up about 20% since Biden took office. The fact is the Biden administration has granted leases at a far faster rate than Trump or Obama. The fact is producers are sitting on 10,000+ leases that sit undeveloped. The fact is America is the world's largest oil producer. The fact is that the vast majority of oil produced in America is not on Federal lands. The fact is the Federal Government has very little control over domestic oil production.

Did you read this far in the article?



Facts, not silly talking points you heard on Fox.

yep.....whenever we have what could be a worrying drop in the S&P i just zoom out and look at the 5y or "all years" plot.

This administration sucks at messaging.

we have an economy where everyone who wants a job has a job. Most of the low paid jobs now pay about 20% more than they did pre-pandemic. A lot of people have more money than they did a couple of years ago either from the higher saving during covid, tax cuts, more people having jobs or something else. But apparently the economy is doing really badly? Gas prices are not that different to 10 years ago, just not in a pandemic or recession driven dip. most people taking a long term view would plan on gas prices being around this level on a long term basis. Even the talk of a recession is a bit false. There is a difference between the Fed applying the brake and an unplanned economic slowdown or crash.

Do you ever get tired of being a tool?

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===============
Proud member of the MSF (Maple Syrup Mafia)

Yes.

I heard on Detroit radio the Nov 14 is the day Trump declares if he will run again. The polling suggests if he does he will almost certainly win the nomination. Him vs Biden puts Biden ahead with about the same margin in the 2020 election. Most people don't want Biden to run again either but given the choice vs Trump, Biden has a slight edge. I guess it would not take much to change that.

These are discouraging times.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

If the Dems even consider Biden they're idiots.

If the choice is Biden vs losing to Trump I would chose Biden. Trump just is so bad. Winning again for him would be such validation that one wonders what he would try to get away with. Not that he needs any validation to act badly

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

7.7%

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"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

swapped a 0.4 (Oct 2022) for a 0.9 (Oct 2021) in that crappy 12-month moving block way they report CPI changes on an annual basis and then quote it as if it is "current" rate. We've had a 0, 0.4 and 0.4 for the last 3 months ....so really inflation is in the 4-5% range on an annual basis right now if the current rate of change was calculated on a smoothed curve.

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And the question remains. where were you.

You're preaching to the choir on this, as previous posts of mine will attest, but it's still good news. And for whatever it's worth I guess the fact the headline rate is slower to unwind is counterbalanced by the fact it's slower to reflect reality when inflation picks up.

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"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Yup.

For the last year the GOP has been disingenuously blaming Biden for global inflation, will they now give him credit for bringing it under control?

Markets are loving this. Dow futures up 800 points. Market opens in 5 minutes

just looking at the CPI figures for 2021 - the real time instantaneous rate of change right now is very close to that in early 2021.

i am sure i saw somewhere that shelter cost reductions take longer to get through the CPI calculations as only 1 in 6 regions are included each month.

odd that the markets love 0.4% in October but hated 0.4% month on month in Sep.

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And the question remains. where were you.

You are correct, they lag by several months. Shelter also makes up about 50% of the current inflation numbers so changes have an outsized affect. Shelter is negatively affected by higher interest rates so they Fed has a delicate balancing act.

Windy claimed that economies like the UK were weathering this storm better than the U.S. Of course he was wrong as usual

Driven by higher gas and electricity prices, UK inflation for October came in at 11.1% (annual), a 41-year high and up from the prior month’s 10.1%.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/...ldgroups/october2022

Meanwhile after 2 years of constant inflation, food prices are finally dropping. The FAO food-coat index is about to turn negative on an annual % basis for first time since mid-2020. And the price of many foodstuffs, from chickpeas to salmon to palm oil, is already falling.

https://www.bloomberg.com/...r_19016770#xj4y7vzkg

US Q4 GDP +2.9% .... strong growth.


Jobless claims at a near-record low of 186K.... that's a strong labor market.

GDP Q4 2022: U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom (cnbc.com)

The folks who want Americans to suffer because it might help them politically are very disappointed today.

and the CPI numbers from July through Dec 2022 have been 0, 0.1,0.4, 0.4, 0.1 and (- 0.1)......so a total of 0.9% in 6 months. I'm no Fed Level economist but that looks to be a rate of 1.8% on an annualized basis.

Maybe time to leave interest rates alone for a while and see if the low CPI holds.

Don't know what the Fed are looking at that convinces them that even higher interest rates are needed to control inflation.

---

And the question remains. where were you.

lots of good indicators coming down right now. Those in charge should be commended for it. Starting with and including Biden.

......oil prices back down to levels similar to pre-covid, and natural gas prices down loads - back to where they were 4 or 5 years ago.

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And the question remains. where were you.

Just quoting so I can double check who posted this later in case I’m getting sick or something lol.

it's not that hard to give an administration credit when something is going in the right direction and to rip them when they've done something (in your opinion) incorrectly.

it's only in places like this room with people who have to believe "their side" is right all the time that this is not possible.

that's what a forum like this should be for. People to be able to express their opinions and viewpoints. People to be able to criticize and praise the same people for different things.

it's just devolved into a handful of people who need to have "their side" be constantly right and to diminish the views of others in order to validate their own.

It is for me. I think we give way too much credit/blame to celebrity politicians for broad macroeconomic forces with many causative factors.

6%

More bad news for the Republicans. How will they spin this?

The U.S. economy surprisingly accelerated to a 2.4% annual growth rate from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight to bring down inflation.

'https://apnews.com/...bc29d37939730039d1bb'

In my small corner of the economy, commercial construction, we are taking a beating.

The dramatic increase in interest rates has brought construction to a screeching halt in many sectors such as office, multifamily, and data centers.
Fortunately we also work in Healthcare and primary education. Those sectors are fairly recessionproof.

any developer starting new construction, class a-ish office product since spring 2022 is not very smart to begin with.

do you do industrial?

I'm in commercial construction as well and we do a mix of office (both tenant interiors and new construction), life sciences, industrial and high-tech. New office construction is basically non-existent and TI is slow but even in down economies it never really goes away since it's driven by lease cycles. Large, high-end TI projects are few and far between though. Life science work has definitely slowed as it seems the market here (Boston area) is finally saturated with inventory. Lots of developers and owners spent the last few years converting their vacant or underleased office buildings to lab buildings and now there is more supply than demand. Our hottest market right now is the tech-industrial intersection - robotics, battery development, etc.

We have done a little.
While not technically industrial, we just picked up a large, temporary housing for an industrial/tech company.
We are looking to expand our life sciences market.

I work in filling those buildings with furniture. There is a lot of work space musical chairs going on right now which is keeping the industry afloat, but nobody knows what the future looks like.

The Biden admin will continue to do an awful job with messaging no matter how good the economy is, so won't need the republicans and their misinformation and distractions. 2.4% growth, inflation falling to 3.0%, extremely low employment (highest number of jobs/workers ever) and yet Biden only has a 40% approval rating on the economy.

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And the question remains. where were you.