It's 8 months away. A bit hard to make accurate predictions now. There is a good chance it will be cancelled, but I think there is still a pretty good chance it will take place.

If a vaccine takes a year or two as predicted, there is no way NZ will keep their borders closed that long, it would destroy their economy.
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If coronavirus is not over but under control, they may look at switching it to somewhere else if the borders where still closed. Maybe Australia as it will have to be somewhere that is warm at that time of year

Can’t just move an event that large with that short a timeframe. Just not logistically possible.

Moving the actual race isn't that hard at all,it is having all the athletes change flights,hotel bookings and visas that is the issue.

I get what you are saying and the reasoning makes sense. But on the other hand: IM announced they will be allocating Taupo slots through their virtual races. People who will get these slots will likely start planning their trip to NZ and I doubt IM would keep on allocating slots if they already knew the event was compromised. What I'm thinking is that they're probably in touch with local authorities and if they're still promoting the event, it may be because for the moment they think there are good chances it will take place. But that's just total guessing...

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Tell that to the americans

Yeah I've got a feeling it will be cancelled too. I had already decided not to go and got a partial refund prior to the pandemic and am now feeling like I shot myself in the foot. Not only could I had possibly already secured a spot at St George for 2021, but it would have been paid for already too.

Lots of time.....New Zealand will realize that they can't torpedo their own economy forever once the rest of the world gets back to work.

Wuhan opened their subways this weeked. No reason why the rest of the world won't be able to eventually go that way too. It will just take time and we have time.

If New Zealand wants to put their entire citizenry into a depression while the rest of the world is climbing out of a recession, that's their choice, but they just ran IM New Zealand in the middle of the big Corona virus international ramp, so if anyone has precedent on how to run a race while this virus is floating around (and yes, they got lucky), then its Taupo.

Dev

When IMNZ was held on March 7th 2020 NZ only had 5 cases of Covid-19. NZ was slow out of the blocks getting it. If you were at IMNZ you would know that there was (in retrospect) very few spread mitigation strategies used and it was not at all well managed - it was just luck. If you weren’t there then please don’t argue about this point (hint -I was there).

Wuhan may have opened its subways but this is only possible due to the fact that China has closed its borders to all foreign nationals to prevent a second wave.

The global economy is torpedoed I am afraid but NZ will do comparatively ok. Although tourism represented some 6%! of GDP some of this will be replaced by domestic travel. Food production and export will take over again as the main economy driver. With no migrant workers to work in food production there will be a reallocation of the labour force there and also to construction as the government has indicated this will be used as stimulus.

I do find it strange that people - mostly Americans - are still in denial about what the global reality is and how long the whole world is screwed for as we enter a global depression ( not recession).

Firstly just to be clear because some on this forum elsewhere, are trying to look at the glass half full with a desire to get back to business as usual, does not mean we are unrealistic. Its not completely unrealistic that there will be events in the Northern Hemisphere fall. Roland Garros has rescheduled for Sep, US Open in still on, London Marathon moved to the fall (and the list goes on). There is no reason for Ironman to cancel a Taupo 70.3 worlds nor Kona YET based on today's incomplete data and global situation.

WRT to your comment on Americans, the entire world economy will be thanking America for pulling the world back to some semblance of normal at some point (and its not tomorrow....but they will be able to do a new Marshall Plan like no one else can. China will just look after self interest). I don't think it is fair to just throw Americans in a broad brush on the global reality front. It is a massive country with 330M differen opinions that neither you nor I can categorize (by the way, I am not American).

Mitigation strategy was the 500 ml bottle of hand sanitizer at each table at the welcome dinner. :)

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More important did you Kona qual? If so, best of luck and hope Kona happens if not, they will roll you over to 2021 for sure.

Thanks, Dev - did get my KQ at Taupo. Not that it matters too much right now, though, given the state of the things...

Stay well!

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No No....your Kona qual absolutely matters. Otherwise let's just tell slowman to shut down this forum and we can go back to watching CNN, BBC and CCTV all day!!! Congrats and I hope you get to race this year, but you can keep pushing for next year. I was not fast enough for a rolldown at Dubai70.3 for Taupo Worlds. I need to run around 10 min faster, but on my rehab, swim and bike are fine for my age group.

Lots of time.....New Zealand will realize that they can't torpedo their own economy forever once the rest of the world gets back to work.

Wuhan opened their subways this weeked. No reason why the rest of the world won't be able to eventually go that way too. It will just take time and we have time.


Dev,

I love your sense of optimism.

I'm no expert on this and this is speculation, but I have heard leading Public Health People say that the next 2 - 3 weeks will be critical to figure out where this is all headed. in many parts of the world they are still on the steepest part of the up-slope for cases/deaths!!

The other big issue, is how far down on the down-slope, do you get, before you give the "all clear" signal? And even then, you are going to have a lot of people, who will be skeptical, worried and perhaps fearful, of social mixing for some time.

In truth, it's going to be a long time before we get back to "normal" or to a new "normal" - whatever that is.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

"In her media conference today, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said she was not ruling out keeping border restrictions in force until a vaccine for Covid-19 was developed." while these are soft words, i think they are preparing us for the reality of what is likely to come.

this is a rapidly evolving and unprecedented situation so you would be brave to make any predictions, what little talk there has been here of the longer term has tended to be around maintaining closed borders (to people, not goods) until such time as the pandemic is controlled one way or another.

until a couple of weeks ago, covid was barely a factor in NZ, just a few people returning from overseas. since then we have leapt to 589 cases and gone into a near complete lockdown to contain it. it is worth noting that only about 10 of those cases are believed to be community transmission - the vast majority are directly linked to overseas travel so closing our borders has real potential to stamp the virus out here. yes, that will hurt our economy but having large numbers of fatalaties and long-term domestic restrictions like much of the rest of the world would hurt more.

air nz is talking about becoming largely a domestic airline "for the foreseeable future", losing 2/3 of their revenue which comes from international tourism

so yeah, while hesitant to make any predictions i think it unlikely that a massive event primarily of people from around the world (particularly the hard hit europe and us) will be allowed to go ahead this year. i'll be very happy if we are able to have domestic events in that timeframe which might include 70.3 taupo but i certainly wouldn't consider it a world champs (unless of course i was able to podium)

A lot of the actions have been taken based on inadequate information; almost a knee jerk reaction perhaps. There is a lot unknown about this virus that has generated a lot of fear and a race amongst governments to do what they think right. Hindsight is always right so we should not be arguing the merits or otherwise of actions that governments have or have not taken.

This was published online here in New Zealand this morning - https://www.stuff.co.nz/...lly-match-the-threat

We do need to look at the measures objectively as more information is gathered. Governments simply do not have enough knowledge to do anything else.

It will be interesting to see how things unfold in Sweden.

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Trust me I’m a doctor!
Well, I have a PhD :-)

And if there is no vaccine? We've never been able to come up with one for a coronavirus before, only time will tell if we can actually make one for this one. Can't count on that possibility

indeed, it seems everyone is pinning their hopes on this but we may have to fall back to developing herd immunity which will involve a lot of deaths. while SARS and other recent outbreaks seem to have died out naturally, the sprea of covid suggests it will not disapear the same way but we really don't know

i'm not sure whether this is the correct/best approach, its just the one we look to be taking. there is so much about this situation that is unknown to anyone, let alone me, that only hindsight will really be able to judge. it is quite possible that the aproach will change in time when we see how things evolve but the current outlook is for ongoing isolation at some level

at the least i think we will need to contain it to levels the health service can manage which means no big international events which would almost certainly lead to a dramatic spike in cases, until we either have a vaccine or herd immunity, either of which will take a long time (months or years)

until a couple of weeks ago, covid was barely a factor in NZ, just a few people returning from overseas. since then we have leapt to 589 cases and gone into a near complete lockdown to contain it.


Not an expert, but this is what the experts are saying - that 2 - 3 week time period is CRITICAL with this virus. Main reason, the incubation period is particularly long and people can have mild symptoms and be spreading the virus and not even know it. Hence the 2 week self-isolation.

Just go back 2 - 3 weeks, in a country like the U/S. where it's starting to tip into an uncontrolled state, and it was just starting to make the news, and not to get all political, about it, but the U.S, President was blowing it all off 2 - 3 weeks ago as a non-concern!

Going forward months down the road - you are right, now one knows EXACTLY where we will be in 2, 4, 8 months.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

if it does go ahead and visitors are allowed back into nz, i believe it highly likely that in november any visitors to nz should be prepared to spend the first 14 days in nz in self isolation in nz.

if it does go ahead and visitors are allowed back into nz, i believe it highly likely that in november any visitors to nz should be prepared to spend the first 14 days in nz in self isolation in nz.



Indeed. This is all DOWN-SLOPE stuff, but most of the world right now is in major UP-SLOPE and no one REALLY knows where the peak will be, let along WHEN we will get to the down-slope. Then of course all those down-slope questions will need to be asked, where right now, there are now answers for!

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Interestingly Air New Zealand have announced that they're going to be a domestic airline for the foreseeable future. 6 months? A year? Really seems like it'll be tough for Taupo 2020 to happen. Hope it does (as I live here).

HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA Brilliant!

Some key differences in Sweden vs countries like the UK, USA, Canada, Australia.
- the demographic is wuite different (many more live as singles, very few extended-family households

- a huge amount more 'self control' and personal responsibility in the population

- larger proportion can work remotely anyway

- a lot less fheckwhits ignoring good advice than in any of the Anglophone countries.

Keep in mind this is how Greg Lemond the tour de France in the first place. He ignored the advice of the Euro establishment and brought an innovation from the ski world that he learned of from American triathletes and smoked Laurent Fignon by 8 seconds to win the Tour De France.

I would say you kind of hit it that in the aforementioned English speaking countries, we do have that tendency....it bore inventors like Isaac Newton, James Watt, Alexander Bell (among many many more) and gave rise to companies like HP (the original garage startup in Silicon Valley) and later Microsoft and Google. So we can't have it both ways. Countries that innovate essentially have to reward individual questioning of the status quo and a desire to push outside the establishment. This forum exists thanks to slowman inventing the aerobars and the triathlon wetsuit. Ironman was invented in America. So, yes I do think there is a sliver of truth that it is more difficult to get individuals in some countries to "follow" but because the countries reward leadership and to some degree questioning of "the way it is", you get all these amazing transformations of society.

Other countries may be happier to follow and those societies are easier to get organized around a framework on any topic. Its hard to have it both ways.

The same fuckwhits that ignore good advice give you your iPhone, your google account, Amazon delivery, first manned flight, first crossing of the sonic barrier, first man on the moon, commercializing the CMOS transistor, inventing the internet (DARPA), Hollywood and a fairly long list of achievements that few nations can come even close to. (by the way, I am not American).

Predicting a global depression is a pretty bold statement. Your ability to predict the status of a race 7 months from now is about the same as your ability to predict whether or not it will rain during the race, or if the coin you flip comes up heads or tails. Most experts out there can't even come to a consensus on what the impact will be over the next 2-4 weeks.

So if you have some epidemiological knowledge or wisdom that we Americans don't have, please share - and if not, we'll continue to prepare for all possibilities including racing in the summer and fall.

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judging by how america has responded to coronavirus, i think it might be a while before any americans are able to enter new zealand.

Funny you mention Isaac Newton, much of his work was done under quarantine from the Plague.

https://www.biography.com/...e-plague-discoveries

Appears he took on some good advice to minimise any risk from the Plague.

I think the knowledge been shared on this thread from some people is not knowledge of the virus, but from the receipt of the information that is coming from the NZ government through the daily national briefings by the PM, and further updates. There's a huge amount of transparency here (including 'we're looking at that' or 'we don't know, but that's something we are planning to consider next week').

And so the strong indications are that if the NZ lockdown works in the next 4 weeks (or so), the borders will remain largely closed until there is a vaccine. The 14 day self isolation has been shown to have been poorly adhered to by returning residents and tourists, and so there will be skepticism of that working, and there's not the capacity to cope with regular open borders and government provided quarantine accommodation.

So if the virus isn't contained / eradicated (and note that is the stated intent given just minutes ago to the parliament oversight committee) then no-one is going to be wanting to come to what's left of NZ by the end of the year anyway.

And that brings us onto the last point I'd like to make, how people actually get here. Because of geography then we are not 'handy'. In the normality of travel 3 months ago (or 14 covid-years ago) there were a couple of direct routes from the US, and singapore, dubai, HK and a bucket load that came via Aus (plus a few more infrequent ones). So whilst the 70.3 is a big thing for this forum, it's square root of f'k all in terms of being able to justify international flights. Yesterday the total arrivals into the entire country by overseas flights was 380. Not thousand. Total PAX for 24 hours less than a single plan load. Air NZ expects it's flights to be 95% less for the next year than 2 weeks ago. So for anyone who is intending to come here, that means a very high chance of them needing to connect via Aus, Singapore, China or Dubai.And that means big costs, several changes and so longer total travel times, and also that all of these places allow transit (I'd guess by then probably would, but not 100% sure).

Saw in my company’s travel newsletter last week that Air New Zealand had planned on adding a Newark-Auckland flight in October before the corona stuff blew up.

Thatd be a long flight. I flew Chicago to auckland in January and was ready to get the F off that plane.

You Kiwis do have a convenient moat around your country... especially useful in a pandemic... but imagine it’s double edged sword. Easy to close your borders... but tourism is lifeblood, right?

I work in an industry/organisation which is pretty much focused on tourist numbers. And we've been instructed to look at severely restricted overseas numbers for the next year+.

So yes, hard to see from the info out there just now that the borders will be open and flights happening again by November sadly.

yes, we carefully built it that way ;)
it sucks in many ways to be isolated at the bottom of the world but it does have its advantages too - covid is just the latest of many things we have largely kept out, that is why tourists want to come here and there is your double-edged sword

This.

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Yep. 100% its not Happening.

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Agree 100%

Even if countries get things under control and lift their internal lockdowns in the next few months (a BIG if), there is little chance countries will allow international travelers and risk reinfections from foreign sources, until the virus is defeated globally. i.e. when a vaccine is available and has been widely available and implemented globally. J&J announced yesterday their vaccine will only have been made in enough quantities for a decent global coverage by the end of 2021, and it is starting production right now (before it even has completed testing and approvals)! Obvioulsy other drug co's may also come on line with their own vaccines in the next 12 months too,

My view: IM races may start up (for local / domestic participants only) early 2021, but I think WCs cancelled until late 2021. I think the earliest WC we may get is Kona '21.

I'm actually skeptical Tokyo Olympics in July 2021 is realistic... or there will be no int. spectators and hell for athletes having to quarantine, etc. to ensure they don't bring the virus back into Japan.

Well reading through the thread posts It seems that generally the kiwis agree that the event will be cancelled and it’s the overseas people that seem more optimistic . I would venture the former group have more insight as to what is happening in NZ.

At a guess Taupo 70.3 might happen as it usually does instead - for locals only.

Agree - by November IF our borders are open - any entrants the country would probably need to isolate for two weeks - perhaps less if serological testing is more advanced by then.

Agree - flights into the country will be rare/expensive . It is pretty telling that Air New Zealand is planning to become 95% a domestic airline ! Who knows what airlines will be afloat when the dust settles - my guess is it will be mostly government backed national carriers.

Global depression. Okay that’s my personal big call but envisaging a 10% drop in GDP for a sustained period seems at least a possibility....

Looks like the Kiwis on this thread want their island Covid19 and keep foreigners out until the world is back to biz as usual. Its understandable. That's OK but its double edge in the long term. Its still an interconnected world at some point. You guys will choose the right time when you want us back. In fairness to the Kiwis, Singapore is keeping foreigners out and Singapore is pretty dead without global interconnection.

Keep in mind this is how Greg Lemond the tour de France in the first place. He ignored the advice of the Euro establishment and brought an innovation from the ski world that he learned of from American triathletes and smoked Laurent Fignon by 8 seconds to win the Tour De France.

I would say you kind of hit it that in the aforementioned English speaking countries, we do have that tendency....it bore inventors like Isaac Newton, James Watt, Alexander Bell (among many many more) and gave rise to companies like HP (the original garage startup in Silicon Valley) and later Microsoft and Google. So we can't have it both ways. Countries that innovate essentially have to reward individual questioning of the status quo and a desire to push outside the establishment. This forum exists thanks to slowman inventing the aerobars and the triathlon wetsuit. Ironman was invented in America. So, yes I do think there is a sliver of truth that it is more difficult to get individuals in some countries to "follow" but because the countries reward leadership and to some degree questioning of "the way it is", you get all these amazing transformations of society.

Other countries may be happier to follow and those societies are easier to get organized around a framework on any topic. Its hard to have it both ways.

The same fuckwhits that ignore good advice give you your iPhone, your google account, Amazon delivery, first manned flight, first crossing of the sonic barrier, first man on the moon, commercializing the CMOS transistor, inventing the internet (DARPA), Hollywood and a fairly long list of achievements that few nations can come even close to. (by the way, I am not American).[/quote]


Yeah man, we're just a bunch of simpletons up here blindly doing what we're told. Following government guidelines in a critical situation, where it's at least very plausible that the experts/advisors know better than the people, is just a sign that people can't think for themselves and are less likely to innovate and push norms. It's obviously completely out of the question that it has anything at all to do with education and/or rational thinking in this particular matter.

Hope the pink font wasn't necessary.

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Yeah man, we're just a bunch of simpletons up here blindly doing what we're told. Following government guidelines in a critical situation, where it's at least very plausible that the experts/advisors know better than the people, is just a sign that people can't think for themselves and are less likely to innovate and push norms. It's obviously completely out of the question that it has anything at all to do with education and/or rational thinking in this particular matter.

Hope the pink font wasn't necessary.[/quote]
Hey Bjorn, if someone is going to come on anywhere and broadbrush all Americans for being stupid, I'll be the first to defend smart Americans south of me. I never said other societies are not smart. They may be more able to get mobilized for national scale stuff because there is a better framework on national missions in general. American culture tends to value individuals/free enterprise first and on the strength of collective achievements the entire nation rises generally further ahead at least on most commercial items than other nations. Its just harder to mobilize the system for non commercial purposes than some Euro countries.

So how about we all get along, not call other countries or each other idiots. Its not really helpful for any reasonable discourse. No one called Swedes simpletons. But I'd wager a bet its easier to get the overall population in Sweden mobilized on something important than Americans. It may be emotional alignment, or it may be your average IQ is higher (completely possible). These things are just harder the larger your democracy. (its easier if you are large in a non democratic society too).

So who trained today for Taupo 2020 (or 2021 70.3 WC's.....I did to give me the best chance to qualify if the world turns back on).

There's quite a big difference in saying certain individuals in a country are stupid for not following sound advice in a crisis situation vs implying a whole population is wired a certain way. You have no idea how the culture in Sweden works and yet you jump to conclusions and make sweeping generalizations. I'm not saying our way of handling this is superior but I think you're so far off base with how you imply things work here that it's borderline comical.

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Can we leave it as different countries operate differently and none are right or wrong. Some assets that certain countries have may be a strength in one scenario and less of a strength in others. Using words like "borderline comical" starts getting in name calling and you're better than having to go there.

I didn't think you could get more condescending, but I was wrong.

Note that this reply isn't to any one individual.


Can I just point out that at the moment there's a lot of people stressed about loads of things. And that stress means we say things to just randomly vent. And we read things and our mind can leap to some words and interpret them in a way that may not be what was intended. And that is 100% normal, we all do it, and we all need to accept others do it.

Or put another way, there was some good discussion here. And still are some good points been made, but, and this is just me, it's a bit like a discussion in the bar about who the greatest boxer / cricketer/footballer is - passionate debate that is fun between friends but if the volume gets up and too shouty then the bouncers are going to come over and throw everyone out.

I hope that the 70.3 WC does happen. That would be fantastic on many levels - the athletes and for what it says about New Zealand and the world economy. And for those still training in the hope, that's probably a really good way to get through this uncertainty. I'd probably do the same, indeed I did for the Ironman against a backdrop of some injuries that seemed set to mean I'd never be fit to race, but either way it was useful to do the training just in case. I am sorry if the debate was ever read to suggest we didn't want it to go ahead, but perhaps reflected a cycle in my (and others?) moods where we are under lockdown and processing that in our own ways.

Anyway, i don't want to be anyone's grumpy Dad/school teacher. So i'll leave it at that.

P.S. Your saddle is too low, your cranks too long and you should be using a 0x13 setup

Two points, in support of your post:
Wuhan.....I really don't trust the figures and propaganda coming out of China....
America.....why do I get the impression that they just don't get it at the moment. They are heading towards a massive disaster of their own making. I have gotten shot down in flames on some FB feeds when I question my American friends about what is going on and they keep repeating this same mantra that it was all China's fault and they are doing fine...???

Finally...NZ acted fast and early (not as early as we may have hoped but once they acted it was comparatively early and hard). I am not as worried, being a kiwi in Australia now, about the state of our respective countries borders at that time of the year. I am more worried about whether negative COVID tests will be required for entry, whether some countries will be excluded (sorry team USA) and what the training will be like for many leading into the event. With the hard lockdown in NZ they should hopefully be able to control things early and start to relax things earlier then many.....

 
Well put.

Personally I really hope IM decide to roll all World Championships back a year, so Taupō gets the event in 2021. We as a community here in Taupō are going to need it.

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Wow dude

He apologized for any slight

Get over it and yourself

In terms of relaxing things, even if things are relaxed for NZers (we are currently all locked down aside from essential services if people didn't know) I don't think that is going to apply to foreigners coming into NZ for a while given that most cases here are occurring from overseas contacts as opposed to community transmission. If we can get coronavirus under control within the population currently in NZ, I for one, would wholeheartedly support keeping our borders shut until other systems are put in place to ensure NZ's safety, whether that be a vaccine or other countries eliminating/eradicating it. I think most NZers seem to be of this view.

As I said earlier, if things are relaxed for foreigners, I have a sneaky feeling it may not be for americans given how their country's leadership has responded to this crisis.

thanks for your post. x2 to everything in your post especially the part in bold. The best thing that Ironman could do is just leave the event "on" until they are told by New Zealand that there is no chance. Just having it as a carrot out there provides a lot of people "something" to get through this period of the world being upside down.

@Salmonsteve....I hope Taupo gets to host the event. If the world gets back to some semblance of normal this year, would that not be the awesomest outcome from where we sit today....and even if it does not happen in Nov 2020....who knows why not Jan or Feb 2021 and St. George in the fall? Why would all of us not desire for the world to get back on track sooner than later !!!

Where did he do that? Regardless, I have no problem with any "slight" thrown my/our way as long as it has some truth to it and there are certainly plenty of things to criticize about how things work here too. But I do think it's far too easy to throw out blanket statements about countries/cultures we don't know much about and sometimes when I'm bored I think that's worth discussing. This is a forum for discussion after all..

But it's getting a bit far off topic for this thread and I hope Taupo gets to hold the 70.3 champs either this year or the next either way.

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Bjorn, if you want an apology here it is, "I am sorry if I categorized Swedes as a country that might be able to generally band together for a common goal better than anglophone countries, especially Americans, and I am sorry for categorizing American society generally valuing individualism and capital market success more than other countries".

I think both of us can agree that it would be awesome if the world situation gets better to the point that there can be an Ironman worlds and Ironman70.3 worlds late this year. That would be 10000000% better than the doom and gloom generally floating around going into April 1st. How ironic given that the world situation is not an April 1st joke.

That's not necessary and that wasn't what we were discussing. The part I thought was condescending and a bit off was implying a country is made up of people not thinking/questioning and only following. But I think that discussion is done at this point with nothing more to say.

And yes, I certainly hope things start getting back to normal and that people get to do some races once everything have settled down.

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That's interesting. I was actually trying to point out positive aspects of both societies not talking down or condescending on either side. Its crazy on the internet even with people you know when you are trying to say something positive on each side and people get angry about it becasue they read negativity into it.

Anyway, another round of apologies to clear it up and let's hope between all this distancing and business slowdown we buy time for vaccines to be developed so the world can get back to business. Or we'll just all get exposed to this and once that is done (after a way too long time) those that live will get back to business. Hopefully the vaccine option happens first.