I am interested to see what other revenue sources Netflix pursues. Ads/commercials? A premium membership with no ads? Purchasing access to content a la carte?



I also wonder at what point these streaming services crackdown on multiple log ins under the same account.

Netflix is more than 6.99.

I think he's right on target personally

This. Once that happens we'll see what demand really is

Snitch.

2nd part is Apple is supposedly getting into content production. Apple’s pocket change is how much Netflix is borrowing to spend on content. Apple can probably nuke their ability to create content just because they can pay way more than Netflix.

We have a 3 year old and 6 month old, we’ll be paying for the Disney Streaming service. As far as Netflix we’ll see how long we keep it. We seem to be using it significantly less now. But at $12 a month or whatever it is, it’s not something we’re getting rid of because of the price.

I wont be getting rid of it. My sub is paid for by my T-Mobile plan. :o)

I agree with M. Even if I thought the Disney content was great, I would probably add it and keep my Netflix. I'd think Netflix's bigger concern would be all the cash they are burning through.
Also, in 2-3 years, I bet Disney is the same price as Netflix, per month.

I realize Netflix is more. My point is 6.99 on top of Netflix is still a great deal over cable or other streaming avenues.
What lost me in the article is his theory about Disney releasing a movie on their streaming site the same day it comes out in theatres. This tells me he really didn't think this through too much. Does Disney not like ticket sales? Concession merchandising? Even if it came out on their streaming service the same day AND they charged extra on their streaming site to see it, I still don't think they would be ahead doing that.

Disney is $6.99. He wasn't saying that Netflix is $6.99

I will definitely check out Disney and weigh it against Netflix. I already have Prime so Disney and Prime would probably have more than enough content that I could get rid of Netflix.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

You’re always going to have people go to the movies but Disney only gets a certain percentage of ticket sales. Currently it’s huge 65% for some of their blockbusters but still 65% of zero is still zero because a lot of people don’t want to go out to movies because of the cost.

If they had the option of 15 bucks to watch it when it came out at home, vs having to spend 40 in tickets for you and your family to go to a theater it’s a very viable option for a lot of people.

I don’t know it it nets them more money in the long run, but it is a possibility, that I don’t think he’s far off the mark on.

Does Disney get a cut of concessions? I don't think same release is on and off line is realistic, but I don't see Netflix content spending being sustainable.

I have Comcast Xfinity and basically get whatever I need (netflix as well and then Prime, but that is for free delivery). I may have to get ESPN+ for some sports and Disney + for children as the case may be, but Netflix would be the first thing I cut

That's the thing for me, I hardly ever watch TV other than sports. So this is just for the two kids.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

This one, I have never understood. It isn't difficult to stop this. I cannot believe they have not done something about this yet.

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If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went. - Will Rogers

Emery's Third Coast Triathlon | Tri Wisconsin Triathlon Team | Push Endurance | GLWR

I thought you chimed in on a couple Netflix originals that you were watching. Am I misremembering that?

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If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went. - Will Rogers

Emery's Third Coast Triathlon | Tri Wisconsin Triathlon Team | Push Endurance | GLWR

Maybe before kid #2 came along. At this point I just don't have time. Once kids are in bed, we do dishes, clean up the mess they made, maybe chat for an hour and then go to bed.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Maybe that was it.

I cannot recall the last time I watched a movie or tv show on Netflix. The only thing I watch on Netflix is original content. Same with Amazon Prime. I keep both because I like their original content.

On caveat: I did watch The Bodyguard, based on someone's recommendation, and I think that was a BBC show brought to Netflix. So, technically not original content, but, something we would not otherwise get in the US.

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If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went. - Will Rogers

Emery's Third Coast Triathlon | Tri Wisconsin Triathlon Team | Push Endurance | GLWR

The author of that piece does not subscribe to Netflix. All he talks about is Movie's Netflix movie selection is Horrible. I actually still have the netflix DVD just for movies, and get a lot from the local library. Netflix streaming movies.. forget about it.

Its about the series. It will be an interesting thing to watch, but I am not sure its as game over as he is leading folks to believe.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Most of the "cable" substitutes, philo, playstation Vue, sling, etc.. have already done that.

Its only the ones that broadcast content not channels (Hulu basic, Netflix, amazon prime) that have not.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

What would Disney's motivation be to release at the same time. Seems DVD's come out about 3 - 6 months after a release, why would they not just drop on the streaming service then or say after a month. Those that really want to see it will pay to go the theater, those willing to wait will get it soon enough. Guess I just don't see why they would give up the cash cow, and the media hype around the block buster. They start stealing from the seats, and all of the sudden its not a huge theater grossing $$$ block buster and there is less hype.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

everyone with kids will do disney+
its a slam dunk/home run/open net/etc

my 3.5 year old is still very upset the Netflix in Canada pulled Moana recently
plus my wife and I waste money on way more stupid things per month....$6 is absolutely nothing

i don't think anyone is arguing people won't do Disney, but will they dump netflix? As you say, 6 bucks is nothing. I say people will add to their subscription and not dump netflix as this guy is indicating.

We discussed this a few months ago. They are not done but they have to expand and there is only one logical place to expand too, Adult Entertainment.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

what kind of adult entertainment? golf tournaments?

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Swimming Workout of the Day:

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2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly

Risky move,
But with most Prime users viewing it as free (they do prime for the shipping) they wont drop that. Most have something that provides cable channel access they wont drop that... Disney for the kids... when cost start to be an issue, Netflix seems to be the first on the chopping block, how do they move to being required... it might be an adult option.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Yeah cause acquiring porn on the internet is pretty hard to do. ;)

Like I said there would be a lot of people that would want to do movie night, but not pay 50 to do it at a theater. The people that want to go to the theater want the theater experience anyways.

My point is there are two groups right now. One of them is currently waiting for it to come out on dvd or streaming. I haven’t gone to a movie in 5 years. Now if they charged 15-20 bucks maybe not same day but in a week or so, you have a group of people currently not paying anything to Disney now paying 15-20 bucks. I’d be willing to spend that depending on the movie.

yeah, if its a movie that I want to see on the big screen, I'll go to the movie theatre because watching it there is simply better. If it's not worthy of the big screen, I'm not gonna go see it on there, I'll wait for it to come out on Netflix. If it doesn't come out on Netflix, I'm probably not watching it.

Disney+ is interesting to me. Depending on what the programming actually looks like, it might cause us to drop Netflix. We don't have Prime right now, but I'd consider it.

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Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly

Yeah, and it would also be a bit awkward to have my kid open my Netflix profile and see the continue watching list.

Porn has a bad connotation. Change that name to Adult Entertainment, post it on Netflix and suddenly you legitimize it, Netflix starts reaping some of the billions that porn makes each year and stockholders are happy. Remember Netflix has a fiduciary responsibility... Also, I am not sure if you are aware that Netflix offers some adult entertainment today ...


http://www.vh1.com/...h-nudity-on-netflix/

https://decider.com/...-section-sex-movies/

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

THIS!!!

I have canceled Hulu, and Vudu (even though it is free). When Disney arrives (since I have a kid), I will cancel Netflix. Amazon Prime will remain as I pay for that for the free shipping, the video is just a bonus. I guess I just figure that Xfinity, Prime and Disney is enough.

As for Apple, I think they have the resources, but many people (myself included), just don't live in the Apple ecosystem. I can't see myself ever subscribing to an Apple streaming service.

Does Disney have the rights to Paw Patrol?

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Swimming Workout of the Day:

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2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly

Not yet.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

It depends what they make or buy. There were a lot of people that were never going to pay for an HBO subscription than game of thrones happened.

Looks like I'm on Netflix for the next 2-3 years...

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Swimming Workout of the Day:

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? not really sure what one has to do with the other.

I think a lot of people don't think there are safe easy ways to get porn on the internet. Now the privacy ones may not want netflix knowing they watch.

But if its not adult tv, how does Netflix stay relevant?

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

My guess, Netflix and Prime don't see it as a big issue. Keeping people watching is bigger. Most of the streaming cable services do geo lock or limit log ins. Several even limit the number of screens that can view to only 1 or 2.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Netflix recently reduced the number of simultaneous logins on my account from 4 to 2. Of course, you can buy additional concurrent logins, if you wish. And they to geo-locking as well, when I was travelling in the US last year not all of the shows were available.

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Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly

Typically major releases (i.e. Disney) get 100% of ticket sales for the first 2-4 weeks, then it drops off quick. The distributor gets zero of the concession sales - thats the only way the theatres stay in business.

So disney has billions and billions of reasons NOT to stream on the same day. They'd be stupid to do so. The top 3 disney movies so far this year have already made $1.3B in the US alone ($4.098B worldwide, but local distributors have to get a cut somewhere).
Last year Disney profited $3B on movies alone (on $10B in revenue). But they profited $4.4B on their parks and $6.6B on ABC/ESPN/etc (on $20B and $24B in revenue)

Was going to post this ^^. Previous posters are behind the times. Netflix has cracked down on the number of screens you can have going, didn't even grandfather people over, just sent us an email that we were getting cracked down on along with our price hike. Not a big deal to me as I didn't share a login anyway, but it did happen. Prime on the other hand hasn't locked anything down. We have 5 households all using the same Prime account.

Netflix is definitely not what it used to be as far as content from other sources, their original stuff is hit and miss for us, but there is still enough to keep us around for now. We don't have kids, so nothing in that article appealed to me.

I would pay to watch sporting events I actually want to see. Why can I still not buy a Packer game for $3-4?

I find that somewhere from incredibly unlikely to impossible.

https://www.google.com/...e-last-jedi/%3famp=1

A year and a half ago it was a huge deal for Disney to want 65 percent. Unless you have something to back that stat up I doubt they raised it to 100 percent it would be major news.

Also you’re missing my point. There is a large segment of people that aren’t going to movies right now. 100 percent of zero dollars spent is still zero. It may be worth it to release also on streaming even if it pulls some people from the theater if it adds a few million people who want to watch when it comes out.

NETFLIX IS F'N done if they don't fix their browsing.. trying to find a show I watched a week ago what a pain in the but. End up using the stupid voice search to pull it up.

They need to find a better way to display shows.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

yeah, if its a movie that I want to see on the big screen, I'll go to the movie theatre because watching it there is simply better.
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Come to think of it, I can't recall a movie that I'd rather see in the theater than at home. Currently, Avengers: End Game is all the rage. If it doesn't come into a streaming revenue, there's a ridiculously high probability that I won't see it. Which sucks because I hear good things about that flick. I simply have no desire to go to the theater. The next chance that I'll venture to the movies will likely be for the next Star Wars release. That's only because it's become some sort of Christmas tradition as of late, someone else usually pays, and I take the nieces and nephews (which serves as a secondary present to their parents, who get a night off). If the Avengers film was available for immediate streaming for a similar movie ticket fee, I'd likely have already seen it. As of right now, this movie might delegated to the 'haven't seen it yet' batch of films.

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

I canceled my Netflix about a year ago when I noticed that the content became seriously "meh". That said, if I had kept it but ads suddenly started appearing..... literally the first ad would cause me to cancel the subscription on principal.

Something I think you were getting at but I would like to expand on: Netflix has to operate with the same "inputs" as everyone else: actors, writers, production companies, etc. Disney has built up their content catalog and content infrastructure if you will over a very long period of time and at a much lower cost than Netflix could ever hope to do. To top things off, Disney has boatloads of cash. It's a cash machine. Now combine that with other titans with tons of cash like Apple and Amazon and you have a recipe for "inflation" in the cost of producing new content. That's a bad position for Netflix to be in because the price of content will be going up just as a ton of content rolls off for Netflix.

Something that article didn't mention is Netflix's off balance sheet debt obligations. Look, there's a reason that Netflix has shown positive earnings but negative free cash flow for a long time now....





The reason? Their content amortization assumption is faulty. Ever notice how Netflix is extremely cagey about giving out granular data for the viewership of specific shows/movies? That's because if they did people could figure out the proper rate at which Netflix should be amortizing their content obligations.

Here's how this scam works: to make things simple, let's say Netflix licenses Movie X for ten years and that's the only content Netflix has for that time period. The movie just released so lots of people want to watch it. Out of the total number of times Movie X is viewed on Netflix in its ten year life on the platform, perhaps 80% of the views will occur in the first year. If Netflix were to amortize that content straight line (they don't), they'd show huge earnings in year one. What happens in year two? Well, people don't want to watch Movie X so they cancel their subscription decreasing revenue. The same happens in year three, four, five... however the amortization remains constant so what was once a large profit quickly turns into a loss. By the end of year ten it's entirely possible that Netflix spent more licensing and distributing Movie X than it earned over that time period.

Netflix hides this quite well by always adding new content (and taking on debt to do so) and growing its subscribers. They don't use straight-line amortization but they also (likely) don't accelerate the amortization of their content obligations commensurately with viewership of said content. Doing so allows them to show significant positive earnings even though they have negative free cash flow. It's a bit of a Ponzi scheme that the credit markets let them get away with so long as there is growth. If Netflix ever hit a rough patch where it saw a hiccup in its subscriber base it would likely be classic case of stairs up, elevator down.

Exactly what I was getting at in a much better way. There are a limited number of good actors, screenwriters, producers etc. When it comes to pricing Disney, Apple and amazon can afford to pay more for longer without it hurting them. Netflix is borrowing to do this at somepoint they won’t be able to unless they hit a Marvel level win. Nothing has shown they can do that yet.

I think a good correlation to this is a sports league with too many teams without enough good players in the league and no salary cap. Whoever can spend the most is generally going to win.