“What’s your prediction for the match?”

“Pain”

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Lucy Charles for the win.

Maybe Cam Wurf is a Clubber Lang fan.

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29 years and counting

What I think that could happen:

1) Frodo, no merci, he run not only to win but to overperform that he is the best
2) Lange, solid bike, could run to wait an explosion of Frodo
3) Gomez Noya, not enough good performance in bike segment not enough experience in Ironman Kona "tactical", he has not the need to win his first year... but he could win if Frodo explodes... and Lange make some mistakes in the bike segment

4) Sanders, in my opinion, will run to win, that means that he is more likely to explode, if not he may be top3... or even win??
5) Kienle is one step backwards... but with many options to be top3.. he is very solid. He should race to be top3, not to win.


I cannot guess about others.. but what about Currie? He ran awesome when he won Gomez Noya in Asia-Pacific Champs

 
Men: Jan Frodeno

Women: Daniela Ryf

.

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Once, I was fast. But I got over it.

Frodo will bounce back and win this one. Looking forward to seein Wurf blowing off the front a bit harder this year, he can get out of the swim main pack and if that happens watch out.

Women’s Rhyf home comfortably, race for 2nd will be very interesting, not sure it will be Charles.

Kona is all about the conditions. If it is a hot, windy day Kienle will win and it will not be sub 8. If the winds don't get up its anyone's guess who will come out on top, but still doubt it will be sub 8. Daniela will run away with the women's race and will probably finish top 10 in the field.

I think that this year would be a tactical race... like a poker game.

If Frodeno doesn't show that he is hard enough with a strong bike, he could have to many challengers fasters in the marathon (Lange, Sander, Noya...), and he may try to start faster the marathon to avoid any alternative.

If Sanders/Lange arrives at the time with Frodo to T2... it could be an Epic marathon!

I don't forget Kienle, who has to decide if he has more opportunities with a hard bike segment, or to be more conservative.

I am from Spain, I would like to see Javi (Gomez Noya) not too far away into T2 with an Epic chasing marathon....

And as you said, Kona is not only the course, it is also the climatic conditions on the race day!

Men: Frodeno

Women: Ashley Horner

This one made me laugh.

There are several athletes lining up who could run sub 2:40 and I’m guessing the fight will be between them. Lange, Frodo, Nilsson and Gomez. If Gomez gets off the bike wotg Lange and Nilsson it will be interesting, but I think Nilsson has a really good chance. He showed in Frankfurt that he can run his own race, which means not starting the run at 2:30 pace like Lange and several others did last year, and then just reels them in. Frodo is gonna be pushing hard all day and I think Kienle’s best shot is going hard on the bike and then cruise in a sub 2:55

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

I really hope it is a shoulder to shoulder race between Charles and Ryf.

The guys have such a stacked field. This will be by far my favorite race. I am hoping Frodo takes it for the guys but I REALLY want Lange to pull out another banana

Men:
Frodo
Gomez
Lange

Women:
Ryf
Carfrae
Kaisa Sali

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Matt

Out of curiosity - why no Charles in that top 3?

Men:

Frodo
Sanders
Lange

Women:

Ryf
Charles
Mirinda

easy picks would be Frodo and Ryf, but to keep this interesting I will predict:

Men: Wurf (he's going to swim first pack - well old first pack, not with Josh and whoever manages to go with him - this will give him ~5 min head start on last year, then ride away from everyone except Starky, then hold on for the win with a 2:50 run)

Women: Haug. No one really has a shot at beating Ryf, but I hope Haug has sorted out her gut issues at Frankfurt and can have a good go at it.

Men: Ashley Horner

Women: Ryf

in her mind, she's already won kona...2 or 3 times...on a huffy cause getting bikes to an island can't be done.

Just watched Lionel's post-race recap and he seems to know what he did wrong, so I'm gonna stay on the Sanders bandwagon as others abandon him. Dude ran 2:55 on a pretty bad day. His odds will go up and my double down wager will pay off bigger.

I'd love to see Lucy upset Ryf, but Daniela is in another league right now. Lucy's year will come soon. And she'll have a long win streak.

(Aside: how awesome a race would it be if Nicola Spirig went after a Hawaii win?)

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

As always, it'll be the best race field ever assembled on the island.

Men

1. Frodeno- The guy is out for blood and simply doesn't have a weakness, he's run low 2:40's in Kona and just ran a 2:39 in Frankfurt. Barring some catastrophe, I think Jan has this thing in his sights and is locked in.

2. Braden Currie- Just the right mix of talent and is tough as nails

3. Javier Gomez- Will lose some time on the bike, but run his way into 3rd.

Women

1. Ryf- simply a league of her own

2. Charles- almost there, but missing that extra 1%

3. Rinny- who's going to run with her? She still has an amazing ace in the hole that nobody else has

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Team Zoot 2023

1. Frodo
2. Gomez
3. Sanders

This prediction may change after 70.3 Worlds...

1. Ryf
2. Rinny
3. Charles

Only the fastest time by a male was ran last year (by Lange). Crowie has the second fastest time (idk why everyone seems to think that Sanders has the second-fastest time; just like everyone thinks The Notebook came out in the 90's). And the fastest time by a female was in 2016 by Ryf.

Anyway, I say Lange and Ryf for the win. Jan and Lucy for runner up. Gomez and Rinny. Also, no one breaks 8hr this year.

Don’t get me wrong, I think she is very good and is probably the best bet for 2nd. That said I figured I’d throw it out there as a surprise possibility. She hasn’t raced much this year (just 2 races since Kona last I think) which could maybe leave her flat

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Matt

Frodo and Lange eat too many vegetables.

I'm going with Javier Gomez. Everyone knows Spanish steak makes you go fast.


This year Ryf will be done showering and in dry clothes when 2nd place comes across the line.

1. Lange
2. Frodo
3. Gomez

1. Ryf
2. Charles
3. Jackson

1. Frodo
2. Lange
3. Gomez

1. Ryf
2. Charles
3. True

That would be awesome but I don't think that'll happen till 2019. I think 2nd and 3rd will be a better race than for first..

You kind of hit my thoughts perfectly. I just don't see anybody beating Frodo this year. He's so damn motivated and wants it so much. Guys racing with that big of a chip on their shoulder and that much talent or damn near impossible to beat... unless one of the other crazy talented people steps up and beats him. That's why this race looks so amazing.

It's kind of cool when you know that an 8 Hour race may come down to a minute or two

But will she help the Hawaiian kids in need?

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

FTFY

Women:
1. Ugh... Ryf
2. Carfrae
3. Charles

Not that I don't like Ryf, I just like competition and right now, she's too hot to bet against. Carfrae runs down Charles.

Men:
1. Gomez
2. Lange
3. Frodeno

Not the smartest bet, I know, I just don't understand why everyone keeps saying Gomez, who always kept up with the brownlees, is a 'weak cyclist'. I want the rookie story and if anyone can do it, he can. I think once Jan realizes he won't catch up to Gomez, he fades back to 3rd while Lange gets close.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Ok. I lol'd.

Literally. Laughed out loud. I hate when people write LOL but they didn't actually laugh out loud. My coworkers are looking at me strange now.

Interesting. I took about 15 years off and Triathlon and missed the whole Crowie era. I was just assuming that what I had read on slow-twitch from others saying that the two fastest times were ran last year was true.

Haha! A guy can hope

Nothing against Ryf, she is so next level it's amazing to watch, but it makes for boring spectating when one person is so dominant.

While I do think Frodo will get this, there are enough deadly competitors that it really could be anybody's day.

I have a hard time watching sports on TV. It's really tough for me to get excited to watch an 8 hour long race, but this one definitely has my interest piqued

A Brit for the women.

Some German dude for the men.

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***

Men: Gomez


Women: Ryf

I predict - I will not be in Kona

Men:
Frodo
Gomez
Lange

Women:
Ryf
Carfrae
Kaisa Sali

Wow. You're picking a 3-way tie for both the men and women...

I don't think the Gomez prediction is all that crazy. I was at St George when Brownlee showed up and whipped all the golden boys of Ironman. Sure Gomez is an unknown at this distance, but one would be nuts to rule him out.

I'm calling for Frodeno/Ryf. At least still 2 months away from race day.

Personally I also believe that Jan with 2 kids now? and having accomplished everything in the sport while getting his redemption will call it a day soon after. Not sure how old he is but he has set himself up very well for a successful post racing career and seems to have a solid brand to work off.

Ryf will as well and potentially switch sports and move into cycling in some realm, maybe TT? Might be a bit late for 2020, but unless she is challenged on the day I think she will venture for a new challenge somewhere.

Should be a great year though. Men's race has more potential contenders then ever before with some great storylines/questions to be answered.

Women's field has transitioned into a new era and the new players are coming into the mix. I think this is Mirinda's farewell tour as well. I think she wants to she how well she can perform post baby in Kona and her success on race day might give her what she needs to know if she aims for Kona again, or does what Jesse Thomas did this year.

No idea on what times we will see as conditions are such a factor, but if conditions warrant and the race has a fast bike as it did last year on the mens side there are enough strong runners that a sub 8 race might be possible. Again very condition dependent.

men's race:

ali brownlee has secretly won a charity slot, and not told anyone. he and gomez swim like ITU studs, lighting up the field and constantly looking over their shoulders wondering why nobody else wants to race. this allows them a headstart for a controlled ride while the rest of the field go bonkers, with sebi, wurf and lionel burning matches like crazy. ali and gomez arrive fresh at T2 with a frazzled and fractured pack, have an epic marathon duel and both run sub 2:35, with ali, one last time, beating gomez right at the tape.

darkhorse braden currie sneaks in for 3rd after taking a bold flier in the midst of all the madness, while frodo and lionel duke it out for 4th. the canadian takes it on pure grit.


women's race:

daniela goes in for elective surgery a week before the race, ruling herself out. lucy charles wins going away, and rinny takes 2nd after setting a fresh marathon record (following a decent swim and weak ride). kaisa run steady all day for third in a women's race that's more strung out and less tactical.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

As long as Daniela is healthy and racing Kona she isn't going to lose. She is on a much higher level than any other females and a lot of the pro males for that matter. I used to think Chrissie was remarkable, and she was, but Daniela is WOW!

Women - Ryf. Can't see anyone touching her barring injury or illness

Men - Depends on conditions. If its an easy bike day then Gomez if the wind picks up I cant see him being able to stay close enough to the uberbikers and would have to back Frodo who has proven he can ride with Kienle / outbike lionel and run well after

Dark Horse: would love David McNamee to pull out another stunner

Yes, they will all cross the line holding hands as a protest to there only being 2 gender categories at Kona

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Matt

I wasn't implying Gomez was doping. in fact I believe (hope?) he is a clean athlete, and I'm pretty jaded about these sorts of things.
It was a subtle joke about Frodo going vegan to avoid tainted meat. He lives and trains in Girona I AFAIK.
Whenever I hear of an athlete going to an all veggie diet, I adjust my expectations (for the worse) of their performance and longevity.

spain has pretty consistently had one of the highest rates of returned violations in all WADA sports. for instance, they were ranked #4 from 2000-2013:

https://www.germanjournalsportsmedicine.com/...s-from-2000-to-2013/


behind russia and america, of course, but still ahead of just about everyone else!


besides that, yes - there is a pretty large pro-american bias on this site and an assumption that americans can do things clean that most other athletes do doped.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Everyone knows Americans can't win at Kona clean or otherwise. LOL.

If Sanders wins, can we count him as an American since Canada is in North America?

He won't. And no.

Interesting.
I think that in Spain we don't have anymore so many money to buy german vegetables or belgium chocolates, they have increase the price since London Olimpic Games.



It is a normal game, you are from a country and you have to blame on other countries because there are to many athletes from this country who wins, but you are not able to think that shit on yours.

Spain golden age is suspect by dopping, and in some way is our fault as spaniards, because we were too proud and we defend our doppers from external attacks. But I believe that it is false and no fair to think that all spanish are doppers. In this way, it is unfair that athletes from countries with far more positives both in the past and in the recent history (US, Germany, Russia, UK....) are doppers too.

Men:
1. Frodo
2. Kienle
3. Currie (FROM THE RAFTERS)
Women:
1. Ryf
2. Charles
3. Mirinda

Men:
Frodo
Lange
Nilsson
Sanders
Gomez

Women:
Ryf (comfortably)
Hauschildt
Charles
Carfrae
Jackson

I'm very interested to see how True and Helle do. I think both have a chance to surprise.

Let's hope Hurricane Lane doesn't wipe Kona from the map, or we won't have a race this year.

Just saw Tim Don got a spot. Top 5 for him....

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Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly

Women: Ryf by about 10 minutes over Charles. Another big gap to third.

Men: Frodeno in third starting the run, catches Sanders (who then blows up trying to go with him) to move up to second, and then catches Wurf inside the last 5km, who hangs on for second in front of a fast-finishing Gomez. End result Frodeno / Wurf / Gomez.

Sad news to see regarding Jan (from his instagram).....

https://www.instagram.com/...;igshid=uyk8jso7hyk7

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

My only change due to the recent news is Sanders for 3rd place.

Y'all can hate on Gomez all you want (re: no work in the 70.3 WC bike line), he just plays the smart game by the rules. Always has.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo