Let's talk about who the outliers are at this year's Kona race. Who has the chance of shocking us and beating one of the big names that are expected to win.

I think everyone would be shocked by Joe winning - he doesn't have a slot.

I'm shocked nobody has mentioned Ben Hoffman. He put up a monster performance at IMSA earlier this year and seems to have been focused on Kona since. He's solid all around and he has experience at Kona. TO is another potential contender. He was a machine at Boulder this year.

I'm going to go against the grain and bet against Lange. You don't (usually) set marathon records year after year.

I think you'll see Frodo, Sebi, and one other come off the bike pretty close to each other. Frodo will try to take the run out fast to break whoever is with him. I predict Sebi will try to just run an even pace instead of going with him banking on potentially passing him in the last few miles.

On the women's side, so long as Ryf stays healthy she'll be tough to beat.

It's hard to bet against Frodo, the guy hasn't even been fully tested in Kona. Obviously Kienle will be there, but I think the dynamics of Lionel being in the second pack might change things a lot.
If I'm not mistaken, I'm not sure Lionel has ever proved himself in a hot weather Ironman. Regardless though, he just seems to be more unbreakable mentally than ever before. I don't think we'd be surprised to see Lionel win or blow up in an epic fashion.
Ben Hoffman is really capable of winning this race. Mentally he is a beast and physically he is obviously capable. Ben showed his power in South Africa and erased some doubts with his low 2:40's run.
Matt Hansen is interesting here. Matt has proven that he can run in the heat. Regardless of heat, Matt Hansen can flat out annihilate a run. My question is whether or not Hansen can keep up with the bike pack. I believe Matt is not the strongest swimmer, so it may come down to whether or not he can hang onto the surge provided by the Lionel, Sebi, and Thomas.
Tim Don could impress us all, he's shown what he can do this year.
If Brent McMahon can execute the run he's capable of, he could easily be in the mix.
T.O. could prove me wrong, but I'm just not sure his run is lethal enough to hang with the Germans or even Hoffman.
Potts looks to be on the way out. Pains me to say it because I love him, but his results are not indicative of Kona success.
The true unknown dark horse: Pete Jacobs. The man can swim and run with anybody, but can he bike within striking distance of the favorites to make it a race. Health has been a big concern the past few years.
Again, the dynamic that is going to change things is Lionel being in that second pack.
That freight train coming out in the second pack is going to change up the bike drastically. You'll see people like Jesse Thomas, Sebi, and Lionel settle into the pack much earlier than Hawi.

Not saying they will win, but In terms of outliers and a great performance, keep an eye out on two first time Kona racers: Braden Currie and Nick Kastelein. Both are chipping away quietly at their training in NZ and Girona respectively, both are massive talents and no one is really talking about them.

Also, I expect to see a top 5 from James Cunnama. Someone else not many people are talking about. Being back training with Sutto is already paying dividends for him and expect to see a solid performance from him in Kona.

You certainly have a point, but I think the power of the Lionel and Sebi chase pack will be pretty intense. Since Kienle's first Kona (2012) he's never not caught the front pack. It's tough to doubt the cycling prowess of Kienle and Sanders. I would be blown away if they didn't catch that pack, it seems highly unlikely.
The swim was really pushed last year, but it may have been what caused Frodeno to feel so uneasy on the bike. My thought is that Jan adopts the Potts theory of, "If I just swim in the front pack the race becomes just two segments rather than three." No doubt that Amburger is an absolute fish, but he still doesn't have the run to produce in Kona. Much like the peloton in the Tour de France, I feel like regardless of Amburger's lead out of the swim he'll get caught by the others.
In an interview with Canadian Triathlete Magazine, Sanders said that he thought it was going to take a sub 2:40 to win Kona this year.
It's going to be another great year on the big island.

Lange or Sanders would be shocking?? I would think they would be in everyone's top 10 (if not, top 5) favorites

On the women's side, Lucy Charles could possibly pull off an upset of Daniella.

You didn't address the former pro cyclist Wurf though; he could break away from all and ride solo into T2. No doubt he'd be caught on the run but still, he'd definitely shake things up.

Jordan Rapp now that he's on a safe bike!