Personally, I always pull for swimmers and so Potts is my sentimental favorite. A great Oly Trials ('96) swimmer and will be 41 in late Dec this year, so this might be his last really legit shot, and even at that he'd be the first 40-yr old ever to win the race. He'd have to have the race of his life though to do it.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

My shocker.......Frodeno will not be in the top 10.

Put me down for the Hoff, also. Just learned via instagram today that he’s coached by Ryan Bolton. When he took the podium in 2014, he was with a different coach, right? former Missoula coach..?

Lange looks pretty amazing on the bike in terms of fit via Instagram and he seems strong down in the Woodlands.

Tim Reed is hyper focused; has been doing intense heat acclimation work.

But as for a true American dark horse: Jesse Thomas

Nick Kalestein (sp?), Frodo’s training partner, could also surprise folks.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

I think James Cunnama would be the best shocker.
Can't rule out Sanders either. My 2 pics

And the two Uberrunners have been training together.
And Lange has a very sexy bike...

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Kienle cant swim as crappy as in 70.3 championship.. If he gets away and if Sanders can stay close to him, race will be interesting for them.

Otherwise i think Frodo, Lange gonna be hard to beat with that run if its a big pack riding..

Patrik Nilsson may be a top 5 guy if he manage to be in a good position in T2.

exciting race as usual, hoping for smaller groups on bike to make it extra interesting

David McName
Rachel Joyce

Hoffman been putting in some big miles according to strava. I guess we will see

Does that not raise any suspicions?

Does that not raise any suspicions? //

No, not really. All these guys come from different backgrounds and it is not any sort of training enclave there, just a bunch of super talented athletes that just happen to be from the same country. What they do have however is a very long history in that country that Ironman is the ultimate in Triathlon. Unlike Spain where ITU and the olympic ideal is the prize, an Ironman champion in Germany carries a lot more weight than a gold medalist. I would bet more people there know Frodo from his multiple Kona wins than his olympic gold, certainly that is the most prestigious there. The germans just love going long, just take a look at how deep the AG fields are at the big races held there. Everything else is way down the ladder, thus most of the talent is at the ultra top.


Now not to say they should have any less suspicion than the other pros, just not anymore. These things eb and flow, last year was an outlier, but not by that much. Go back in history and there are many years where the Germans took the majority of the top 10 slots, going back there were even yeast when the US or Australia filled out the top 10 pretty heavy. But looking historically going back to the very beginning with Klaus Barth getting 3rd as an old man(well for back then) they have been the most dominant country ever in Kona. So lots of heroes for each generation to look up to and a funneling of top talent into the ranks where the country rewards excellence in that arena.

What have you done for me lately?!

I'm not naive, but as far as I know they don't train together or aren't part of the same system/coaching etc. so just the fact that they are all German doesn't stand out for me.

Maurice,

agree with monty on this one - germans have been dominant for a long time, so recent results aren't unusual. there have been some positive tests among them, over the years, but i'm not sure it's been out of proportion with the (big) numbers of them racing.

if anything, spain raises more eyebrows for me, when you combine race results with their regulatory issues and their number of AAFs.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Matt Hanson. Hanson is one of the fastest runners in the heat the sport, and his swim and bike may have improved enough to get him a very high result in Kona.

Sarah Crowley for the women

http://www.tri2b.com/...d-lauftraining-7941/

Look at those pics of Frodo. Looks like negative body fat percentage.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

WOW! That is incredibly motivating.

Heather Jackson shared some pictures yesterday where her body fat looked about like Jan's. I've never seen her so ripped. I think she is all in on this race and I'm going to pick her for the upset win.

I know she was on the podium last year so not exactly a shocker but I'm putting her on the top step.......

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Jason
None of the secrets of success will work unless you do.

Hear, hear!

Pete Jacobs. He will shock and he will awe.

Man, slap some make-up on him and he'd make a perfect zombie for the Walking Dead. Aside from that... crickey!

I 'd love to see Jesse Thomas, get on the podium. Long shot I know... but have others have said, he's such a good guy. Had a chance to meet him in Augusta (he won, new course record) and he lived up to his reputation.

All in all... any American, male or female, would be great to see win or podium.

Not.

Lucy Charles

Ivan Raña

Haley Chura

you can laugh now :)

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Matt Hanson will run into top 5.
Lucy Charles gets 2nd.