aerobean wrote:
It's hard to bet against Frodo, the guy hasn't even been fully tested in Kona. Obviously Kienle will be there, but I think the dynamics of Lionel being in the second pack might change things a lot.
If I'm not mistaken, I'm not sure Lionel has ever proved himself in a hot weather Ironman. Regardless though, he just seems to be more unbreakable mentally than ever before. I don't think we'd be surprised to see Lionel win or blow up in an epic fashion.
Ben Hoffman is really capable of winning this race. Mentally he is a beast and physically he is obviously capable. Ben showed his power in South Africa and erased some doubts with his low 2:40's run.
Matt Hansen is interesting here. Matt has proven that he can run in the heat. Regardless of heat, Matt Hansen can flat out annihilate a run. My question is whether or not Hansen can keep up with the bike pack. I believe Matt is not the strongest swimmer, so it may come down to whether or not he can hang onto the surge provided by the Lionel, Sebi, and Thomas.
Tim Don could impress us all, he's shown what he can do this year.
If Brent McMahon can execute the run he's capable of, he could easily be in the mix.
T.O. could prove me wrong, but I'm just not sure his run is lethal enough to hang with the Germans or even Hoffman.
Potts looks to be on the way out. Pains me to say it because I love him, but his results are not indicative of Kona success.
The true unknown dark horse: Pete Jacobs. The man can swim and run with anybody, but can he bike within striking distance of the favorites to make it a race. Health has been a big concern the past few years.
Again, the dynamic that is going to change things is Lionel being in that second pack.
That freight train coming out in the second pack is going to change up the bike drastically. You'll see people like Jesse Thomas, Sebi, and Lionel settle into the pack much earlier than Hawi.
You are overlooking the potential that LS, Sebi, etc, may never catch the front pack swimmers freight train. Amburger, Frodo, Potts, and Cam Wurf may just ride off the front for the whole bike. IMO, it is Wurf and Amburger who may change the dynamics more so than LS. In the end though, Frodo runs away from all for the win.
On the women's side, Lucy Charles could possibly pull off an upset of Daniella.
"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."