Patrick Lange and Lionel Sanders.

On the womens side, nobody.

This.

For women it will be Ryf. No shock there.

Patrick Lange and Lionel Sanders.

On the womens side, nobody.

Isn't this going against the thread question? These two are big names, would hardly be a massive shock, both are top 5 in the World.

Isn't this going against the thread question? These two are big names, would hardly be a massive shock, both are top 5 in the World.

I think most people expect Kienle or Frodeno to take it, so those two, as fast as they are, would be an outside pick.

Tim Don seems to be in good form this season, although he is no spring chicken.

I think most people expect Kienle or Frodeno to take it, so those two, as fast as they are, would be an outside pick.

Lange beats Kienle last year without the penalty. It's going to be one of the three Germans. If Lange hits his cycle properly and comes off the bike within a few minutes of those other two, he's my pick

I would be shocked by Joe Skippah. I would also be shocked by Susie Cheetham.

Let's talk about who the outliers are at this year's Kona race. Who has the chance of shocking us and beating one of the big names that are expected to win.

Brent McMahon

Noone picking Johs amburger? Im going with him as the dark horse:-)

Let's talk about who the outliers are at this year's Kona race. Who has the chance of shocking us and beating one of the big names that are expected to win.

I think everyone would be shocked by Joe winning - he doesn't have a slot.

I'm shocked nobody has mentioned Ben Hoffman. He put up a monster performance at IMSA earlier this year and seems to have been focused on Kona since. He's solid all around and he has experience at Kona. TO is another potential contender. He was a machine at Boulder this year.

I'm going to go against the grain and bet against Lange. You don't (usually) set marathon records year after year.

I think you'll see Frodo, Sebi, and one other come off the bike pretty close to each other. Frodo will try to take the run out fast to break whoever is with him. I predict Sebi will try to just run an even pace instead of going with him banking on potentially passing him in the last few miles.

On the women's side, so long as Ryf stays healthy she'll be tough to beat.

It's hard to bet against Frodo, the guy hasn't even been fully tested in Kona. Obviously Kienle will be there, but I think the dynamics of Lionel being in the second pack might change things a lot.
If I'm not mistaken, I'm not sure Lionel has ever proved himself in a hot weather Ironman. Regardless though, he just seems to be more unbreakable mentally than ever before. I don't think we'd be surprised to see Lionel win or blow up in an epic fashion.
Ben Hoffman is really capable of winning this race. Mentally he is a beast and physically he is obviously capable. Ben showed his power in South Africa and erased some doubts with his low 2:40's run.
Matt Hansen is interesting here. Matt has proven that he can run in the heat. Regardless of heat, Matt Hansen can flat out annihilate a run. My question is whether or not Hansen can keep up with the bike pack. I believe Matt is not the strongest swimmer, so it may come down to whether or not he can hang onto the surge provided by the Lionel, Sebi, and Thomas.
Tim Don could impress us all, he's shown what he can do this year.
If Brent McMahon can execute the run he's capable of, he could easily be in the mix.
T.O. could prove me wrong, but I'm just not sure his run is lethal enough to hang with the Germans or even Hoffman.
Potts looks to be on the way out. Pains me to say it because I love him, but his results are not indicative of Kona success.
The true unknown dark horse: Pete Jacobs. The man can swim and run with anybody, but can he bike within striking distance of the favorites to make it a race. Health has been a big concern the past few years.
Again, the dynamic that is going to change things is Lionel being in that second pack.
That freight train coming out in the second pack is going to change up the bike drastically. You'll see people like Jesse Thomas, Sebi, and Lionel settle into the pack much earlier than Hawi.

Not saying they will win, but In terms of outliers and a great performance, keep an eye out on two first time Kona racers: Braden Currie and Nick Kastelein. Both are chipping away quietly at their training in NZ and Girona respectively, both are massive talents and no one is really talking about them.

Also, I expect to see a top 5 from James Cunnama. Someone else not many people are talking about. Being back training with Sutto is already paying dividends for him and expect to see a solid performance from him in Kona.

You certainly have a point, but I think the power of the Lionel and Sebi chase pack will be pretty intense. Since Kienle's first Kona (2012) he's never not caught the front pack. It's tough to doubt the cycling prowess of Kienle and Sanders. I would be blown away if they didn't catch that pack, it seems highly unlikely.
The swim was really pushed last year, but it may have been what caused Frodeno to feel so uneasy on the bike. My thought is that Jan adopts the Potts theory of, "If I just swim in the front pack the race becomes just two segments rather than three." No doubt that Amburger is an absolute fish, but he still doesn't have the run to produce in Kona. Much like the peloton in the Tour de France, I feel like regardless of Amburger's lead out of the swim he'll get caught by the others.
In an interview with Canadian Triathlete Magazine, Sanders said that he thought it was going to take a sub 2:40 to win Kona this year.
It's going to be another great year on the big island.

Lange or Sanders would be shocking?? I would think they would be in everyone's top 10 (if not, top 5) favorites

On the women's side, Lucy Charles could possibly pull off an upset of Daniella.

You didn't address the former pro cyclist Wurf though; he could break away from all and ride solo into T2. No doubt he'd be caught on the run but still, he'd definitely shake things up.

Jordan Rapp now that he's on a safe bike!

You certainly have a point, but I think the power of the Lionel and Sebi chase pack will be pretty intense. Since Kienle's first Kona (2012) he's never not caught the front pack. It's tough to doubt the cycling prowess of Kienle and Sanders. I would be blown away if they didn't catch that pack, it seems highly unlikely

How about Patrick Nilsson? Could he be in the mix for the podium?

Chris Froome.

If I remember correctly he did that in Brazil or another tropical IM and paid for it dearly on the run. If he attacks in Kona the big boys won't worry about it at all. You gotta be able to back up the bike with a run to get people to take notice.

How's his swim?

Made me laugh out loud, thanks for posting

David McNamee if he is racing

x2 Bravo!

Since nobody seems to have mentioned him yet, James Cunnama. Previous 4th (5th?) place finisher, back training with Sutton where he seemed to have his most success, can run 2:40 off the bike, and seems to be trending in the right direction this summer. I could see him being right in the mix.

I think she will have a top 3 race.

Men's-Sam Appleton
Women's-Holly Lawrence

Both athletes have had spectacular results this season. I think either one of them can pull off the upset on the right day.

Alexander's record is questioned as well though, many have cited that the turnaround in the energy lab was considerably shorter in 2011. Frodeno's time definitely appears to be in Crowie's neighborhood. The craziest thing is that Luc Van Lierde's previous record included a 3 minute penalty.

Men's-Sam Appleton
Women's-Holly Lawrence

Both athletes have had spectacular results this season. I think either one of them can pull off the upset on the right day.

Not racing

How about Patrick Nilsson? Could he be in the mix for the podium?

No quantification for it but I would love to see Jesse Thomas throw an upset and either win or get on the podium. I wouldn't bet on it, but I can say I would be out of my chair cheering.

You might as well re name the thread 'Other than Frodeno and Kienle who do you think could win?'

The real shock is anyone not named Frodeno or Ryf winning

The Swede Patrik Nilsson.

This. Until someone steps up (Gomez?), Kona will be a race for 2-10.

What has Frodo done this year? At Allgäu he rode 2:15:02 to Ryf's 2:17:30. Does not really blow me away as unequivocal favorite.

I think a lot of people would be shocked if an american won. So that's what I'm pulling for.... cmon TO and the Hoff.....

Our of all the Americans, I'm definitely pulling for Hoff!

+1, he is crazy good

Not sure who it might be, but I would be surprised by a 6th German in the top 8.. I was quite surprised by 5 in the top 7 last year, most dominant performance by a country ever. So one more?

What has Frodo done this year? At Allgäu he rode 2:15:02 to Ryf's 2:17:30. Does not really blow me away as unequivocal favorite.

Does that not raise any suspicions?

I agree!!!!

Dark horse for the women is Jodie Robertson.

Let's talk about who the outliers are at this year's Kona race. Who has the chance of shocking us and beating one of the big names that are expected to win.

http://www.tri2b.com/ironman-hawaii/news/detail/bilder/articles/12/article/ironman-hawaii-2017-prerace-jan-frodeno-unterwegs-beim-rad-und-lauftraining-7941/

Look at those pics of Frodo. Looks like negative body fat percentage.

Pete Jacobs. He will shock and he will awe.

Let's talk about who the outliers are at this year's Kona race. Who has the chance of shocking us and beating one of the big names that are expected to win.

David McNamee if he is racing

Neither of which are racing Kona. You are thinking 70.3 worlds and they are hardly shockers.