Exactly. I think what we can count on is Lionel being in the front train at some point. Since he's not one to sit in the pack the question becomes will he attack off the front. From what I understand that pack runs at ~4w/kg. We know Lionel is capable of pushing more than that so he might. The question then becomes does Jan and the boys cover the attack or do they bike at the historical norms?

Another possibility is that he makes the pack and plays his cards on the run. Or Kona eats him up again and he goes back to the drawing board.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Was going to post him, I think he has a shot at a podium, he's great in hot conditions (2:39 in 35° Frankfurt) and is starting to get into great shape. He will likely enter T2 a few min behind kienle/sanders/frodo but has the capability to catch up.
I think this years race will def be one for the books, Wurf is gonna crush the bike, and we have at least 5 runners who can put down 2:40 splits on the run.
Okay, I'll say it, predicting sub 8 for winner

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

How's his swim?

I don't recall Wurf racing in Brazil and IM Brazil is not a hot race at all

Cancellera just did a tri. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp4Ar55NQQU

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I could be thinking of Micheal Weiss or someone else. Anyway, the former pro cyclist was first into T2 and got demolished on the run in the race I watched. Must have been a regional championship or WTC wouldn't have streamed it.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

x2 Bravo!

Good shout!

Hands Down: Dark horse for the women is Jodie Robertson. She was injured going into Kona last year; this year she's in great form -- I train on the same local roads on Eastern Long Island and I've seen her flying all summer long!

She's super strong on the Bike, showcasing a 4:43 @ IM Texas with the overall win. And her stand-alone marathon is a 2:34 (Olympic trials time). If she can put together a decent swim, latch on to a second or third swim pack and come out of the water down only 8 minutes or so, she has a legit shot at the podium - and if Ryf falters at all, the overall win.

You heard it hear first folks.

No quantification for it but I would love to see Jesse Thomas throw an upset and either win or get on the podium. I wouldn't bet on it, but I can say I would be out of my chair cheering.

Less of a long shot is Andy Potts. Would love to see him take a win at Kona.

What would be your opinions on the likelihood of the course record being broken?

Alexander still holds the record with his win from 2011 in 8:03:56 (51:56, 4:24:05, 2:44:03). Frodo already came close last year with a 8:06:30 (48:02, 4:29:00, 2:45:34) and claimed that he didn't feel particularly great back then. Of course a lot will depend on wind and weather conditions, but given the quality of the field this year it seems like a feasible feat.

LoL. And Andy Potts is like Tony Romo. Every time someone says next year is his year I laugh. I no he's retired but the comparison still works.

I guess that makes Rapp Jay Cutler ;)

Alexander still holds the record with his win from 2011 in 8:03:56 (51:56, 4:24:05, 2:44:03). Frodo already came close last year with a 8:06:30 (48:02, 4:29:00, 2:45:34)

Keep in mind that last year they shortened the swim by 200m from the previous 30+ years. So Frodo's time comparison to Alexanders is more like an 8;09+, so not really that close. Many, many times in that zip code over the years, and even a few legit sub 8;09's. This is the main reason I really hated the shortening of the course, now there has to be an * or explanation every time someone does a time and we try and compare it to past years.


Now do I think the record can be broken, absolutely. Need good solid conditions and a competitive race for the win. Seems like every year there are the best guys in the best shape and this upcoming race is not different, so pretty much up to Mother Nature really. But I think it is the bike course that is always the limiter on race records. Look how many great uber bikers have raced since Norman and Leito, and yet their times still stand up as the greatest of all time, and they were not blow off times either. Norman won and Chris was 2nd, so not your usual Starky type of ride or someone just going for the bike course record sacrificing everything else.


I mean Keinle, Frodo, Starky, Weiss, Marino (and a bunch of other lead bikers I'm missing) and now Sanders and a whole bunch of others on paper should should have gotten that record at some point, but every year it seems to just be some wispy cloud up ahead that no one can catch. Someone needs to go low 4;20's and then maybe a course(+200m of swim time) could be achieved.

Jesse won't win it and top 5 is not likely but top 10 is a definite possibility. He was 16 last year and was as high as 12 towards the end of the marathon. He says he came into Kona last year over cooked and has taken a different approach this time around to be better prepared. He'll swim with the second pack and then ride his way to the front pack probably and if he comes off the bike in the top 10 he could definitely hold on through the marathon to a high finishing spot. Maybe give TO or Hoffman a battle for top American.

The same seems to be true of the run. All this talk of who is capable of running 2.40 but when the rubber meets the road it has happened once (?) Since allens run 29 years ago......

I have been around here for a long time. Every year its the same. Wurf is the new steve larsen who was the new.......but in the end in spite of power meters, aerodynamics, nutrition, an epidemic of coaches times set up to 3 decades ago are still ridiculously hard to beat

Not sure what it says other than those at the top of their game have always been great athletes

Heather Jackson could pull it off. I assume Heather is racing Kona. Her 3rd place finish last year and her success this year might be what it takes for her win the big one!

She does great in hot weather races. Not sure if she'd be considered a dark horse after a podium last year though.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

True, but if anyone beats Ryf I think it will be a shocker!

men:


Boris Stein

women:


Rachel Joyce (I just have a mega crush)!!!!

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Love the Pain!

Quito-Ecuador

Alexander's record is questioned as well though, many have cited that the turnaround in the energy lab was considerably shorter in 2011. Frodeno's time definitely appears to be in Crowie's neighborhood. The craziest thing is that Luc Van Lierde's previous record included a 3 minute penalty.

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Team Zoot 2023

Keep an eye on Kaisa who finished 5th and has gone sub 9 and run a sub 3 elsewhere.

I think she will have a top 3 race.

Since nobody seems to have mentioned him yet, James Cunnama. Previous 4th (5th?) place finisher, back training with Sutton where he seemed to have his most success, can run 2:40 off the bike, and seems to be trending in the right direction this summer. I could see him being right in the mix.

Men's-Sam Appleton
Women's-Holly Lawrence

Both athletes have had spectacular results this season. I think either one of them can pull off the upset on the right day.

I will second or third Matt Hanson. Matt Hanson can be very dangerous for a few reasons. One he has shown some potential at times this year to be able to make the FOP swim, Texas was a great example of this. If he can make the front pack, I think he might be able to hang on in the bike, which leads to the run. Matt Hanson is basically a smaller version of Andres Realert, and seems he is very well suited to be able to potentially run very fast in the tough environment.

Lionel Sanders without a doubt has the biggest engine in the field but with the coming of Amberger that could really help to push the pace again on the swim and break things up a bit which could create another unknown for Sanders.

But given the winner comes from the previous 4 you have to like the potential of Frodeno and Lange.

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