Velocibuddha wrote:
I think it is still wide open.
If I had to give odds:
Pinot- might be the favorite now. Did he push too hard for stage 19 win?
Maybe - 38% chance
Dumoulin- can he recover enough by tomorrow to win this. (Maybe not).
- 28% chance
Nibbles- did he ride sufficiently within himself to have a big performance tomorrow, are Pinot and Dumoulin too tired. Can he catch Quintana? - 20%
Quintana- has he been saving himself for this? Is he the guy that has given the least of himself so far and who thus has the most left? (I think so). But does he have to enough time? - 12%
It feels like Quintana has given the least of himself in this last week...or he has nothing. On today's stage at the end, he probably misjudged the finishing location and went to early. I have no idea otherwise why he was pulling that early. He gave up important time bonuses. I was pretty sure Pinot was going to win, but NQ can probably jump in a small frontal just as good as the other 4 (he got second in his crash stage).
I am guessing tomorrow's stage will be around 20 min faster for the favourtes than the first TT, but I think NQ can't hold the 53 second on Dumoulin. i am going with Dumoulin-Pinot-NQ-NIbali.
Now can someone get NQ a 650 bike with a rear disk and get him to bury his nose into his front tire please. This position just won't cut it on this bike: