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I think he has to go early in the bottom part of the climb and put TD on the ropes with a gap and then attack again on the 14% grade. After that, it's back to TD favourable grades, so he needs some partners who will come with him and TTT on the less steep parts to sustain the gap.
That would be awesome. But there is one problem. There is no possible "partner" because new riders are not allowed to enter the race.
To this point there has been no one who could go with Quintana whom TD could not follow, and if Movistar sends teammates up the road they are spent by the time Quintana bridges to them and can't pull away from TD.
For all the criticism of Sunweb, I think TD's team won the race for him today. They were pulling in front quite a bit up to Gardena, keeping the break at about two minutes. By the time Quintana attacked on Gardena he had lost all his teammates. He did have Amador and Anacona up front, but by some reports they did not drop back to help him but in fact were dropped by the break which had to ride hard to stay out in front. That report seems plausible to me as evidently Amador and Anacona did not have much left in the tank because at the pace they could muster, TD was able to pull himself and all the other GC guys up to them by the top of the climb.
Should Quintana and Nibali have dropped Amador and Anacona and gone at a harder pace up Gardena? Sure they could have. But then it would be two guys together on 30+ km non-technical descent and flat before the final climb vs. large group of GC contenders behind.
Quintana might be the strongest on the 14% but the second strongest on the steep (and overall strongest), and best candidate to be his partner is TD. Nibali potentially could be that Quintana's attack partner on Chianzutan (is this stage in China?), but the two would face 60 km of flat before the final climb. I don't see it happening -- but it would be exciting if it did. If half of Movistar and Bahrain teams are in a break before Chianzutan, then TD may have poop again if Quintana and Nibali go on Chianzutan.
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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev