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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
Jason N wrote:


I think Nibali and Quintana realize that the only way they are going to jump TD by the end of the week is if he cracks hard. Last time TD was leading a grand tour heading into the final weekend, he cracked hard and lost 4 minutes to the GC during stage 20 of the 2015 Vuelta...so they know its possible. They aren't just going to ride away and put 2+ minutes while he's still capable of riding a strong tempo. They just don't have that much of a superior w/kg right now.

So I think they are putting in some short digs to see if TD is on the ropes. When they realize he's not in trouble, there is no point in continuing the move thus burying themselves to gain 10-15 seconds...so they let it come back together.

When they got to the crest of the last climb, they were in TD territory with 3km to go...again, no point in them using any energy and see if TD would burn some energy chasing Pinot while they sit in the draft...hoping it will add up to his fatigue in the event they can crack him tomorrow or Saturday. TD was smart enough not to go too hard...pretty textbook all the way around if you ask me.

TD may or may not crack in the last 2 stages...but I think it's the only card Nibali and Quintana can play at this point.


difference is that the last stage of the 2015 Vuelta was exceedingly hilly and similar to today's Giro stage. The next two mountain stages are nothing alike. Best thing Nibbles and Quintana could do is to send riders up and hope that they make the rendez-vous toward the top of the climb on the last day and have their teammates pull them away (15 km of flat from top of GPM to finish).


Yeah, I don't see it happening the next two stages, but for those saying that Quintana isn't racing to win, I believe he is...he's just outmatched right now and he knows it. He knows his best shot is not to just throw the kitchen sink at TD just because the road is pointing up. He's got to get lucky and hope for an off day and pounce on that if it ever comes (also with the right mix of teammates up the road as you mentioned). TD was clearly on form today, and no teammates up the road...so Quintana will hope for better luck tomorrow or Saturday even if the profile doesn't favor it.

We all know races are not won on paper, and what "should happen." Sometimes the easier stages on paper can be the most difficult and stressful. I actually applaud Quintana for trying a few times today, but at the same time being smart enough to know what his "best" chances are.

ETA: Allowing Pinot and others to gain time may actually benefit Quintana and Nibali's chances to isolate TD, as it brings more threats to the overall GC. Yes it also brings threats to their podium spots, but as prior GT overall winners, I think they are all in for pink, not the podium.
Last edited by: Jason N: May 25, 17 13:25
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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Td was on Giant in that Veulta. He had no team, they were there for the sprint stages. Astana took it to him on that stage. Sent two strong riders up the road and Giant could not match it. When he was isolated Aru attacked, he bridged to his teammates and dropped the hammer.

TD was alone and got crushed. This current team would handle the situation better and prevent the isolation. That an TD is a different rider in this Giro.

That is just my take, I could be remembering things wrong.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Triagain3] [ In reply to ]
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There was a lot of climbing in this Giro. But the two time trials seem to be the determining factor.

I do think Quintana could close the gap on TD tomorrow- if Quintana were to burry himself.

But what good would that do?

TD will just take back the 30 seconds (plus 60 more) on that downhill TT.

I think Quintana might have won, if he had Valverde as an official domestique.
But Valverde is probably just too good to be anybody's domestique.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Perhaps he could have won with a super domestique like Valverde. However, TD except for the shit stop has looked only slightly weaker on the climbs the NQ. I imagine having Valverde break wind for NQ, would have just meant they both moved along quicker.

I just think having followed this race it was never NQ's to win. TD has been in control the entire time.

I hope he is a TDF contender and becomes the guy to unset Froome. I really like TD's personality and riding style and would gladly cheer him on for a good many years.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Haha, best quote of the week.

they now have as many world tour wins as Rally cycling in the last two years.......[/quote]
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Allowing Pinot and others to gain time may actually benefit Quintana and Nibali's chances to isolate TD, as it brings more threats to the overall GC. Yes it also brings threats to their podium spots, but as prior GT overall winners, I think they are all in for pink, not the podium.

Quintana and Nibali may be, but I think Pinot and Zakarin (and their teams) will be thrilled with moving up to podium. Indeed, Pinot may already think he is virtual podium with the TT at the end. So any Quintana attack would be marked by Pinot and his team. In fact that already happened today (the extra time Pinot got later was just an unexpected bonus). However, Pinot would need to have a much better TT than stage 10 but he underperformed there.

If Pinot attacks, Quintana and Nibali can play chicken again and try to make TD chase. However, I just have a feeling that Pinot is more likely to play for 2nd or 3rd.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:
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Allowing Pinot and others to gain time may actually benefit Quintana and Nibali's chances to isolate TD, as it brings more threats to the overall GC. Yes it also brings threats to their podium spots, but as prior GT overall winners, I think they are all in for pink, not the podium.


Quintana and Nibali may be, but I think Pinot and Zakarin (and their teams) will be thrilled with moving up to podium. Indeed, Pinot may already think he is virtual podium with the TT at the end. So any Quintana attack would be marked by Pinot and his team. In fact that already happened today (the extra time Pinot got later was just an unexpected bonus). However, Pinot would need to have a much better TT than stage 10 but he underperformed there.

If Pinot attacks, Quintana and Nibali can play chicken again and try to make TD chase. However, I just have a feeling that Pinot is more likely to play for 2nd or 3rd.

You may be right that Pinot won't attack and rely on the TT to move up the podium, but that may induce Zakarin to attack, which in turn forces Pinot to follow, which in turn means that TD has to chase while Nibali and Quintana play chicken...

I do feel that TD is the strongest rider left...by quite a margin. But him losing time to Pinot and Zakarin today is opening up a lot of possibilities. This was the next best thing for Nibali and Quintana's hopes for pink other than actually dropping TD today...which they couldn't do.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Velocibuddha wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
Can we now officially state that the race for first loser is officially confirmed and we can paint a Pink Jersey on TD's bike, paint his bike and helmet pink and convert the Dutch national flag to pink for the rest of the week? Now we're watching stage hunting and how the 2-5th GC spots shuffle around between now and the end of the ITT.


No - they think (correctly) that they can still break him on stage 19 and 20.


Do you think Quintana has any chance of making up 2.5 minutes BEFORE Sunday? Without a bonk, a mechanical at the wrong time, or an unfortunate crash, I don't see how it is humanly possible to make up that much time on Dumoulin. They basically have the same loaded down watts per kilo (when you add in bike, helmet, shoes, electronics, clothing and bottle). On top of that Quintana basically gave away a full minute to Pinot today. Basically within a minute of Quintana you have Pinot and Nibali, both of who could make up a minute on the final ITT and push Quintana off the podium, forget about the win. I get it that he is going for the win, in which case rolling with Pinot's attack would have been beneficial anyway than sitting on Dumoulin's wheel.


This is what Dumoulin said about Nibali and Quintana and them just focusing on him today:

"They are only focusing on me and trying to make me lose instead of trying to win. In the last moments, they lost a lot of time to the other competitors. I really hope that riding like this they will lose their podium spot in Milan, that would be really nice, and I would be really happy," he told Eurosport.

"I was very friendly to everyone for the whole Giro. But today I wasn't happy with how they rode. I think Nibali and Quintana are here to win the Giro right? Well, the only thing they did was to try to make me lose today. "
"I was never really in trouble but in the finale, I was not completely happy with the situation. I'd have liked to stay all together. At top of the climb with four kilometres to go, it was a good situation for Quintana, Nibali and me. That's why I didn't understand their tactics. I was frustrated and angry that they only rode on my wheel. I don't understand them."
Last edited by: devashish_paul: May 25, 17 20:07
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Tomorrow looks like a potential chance for Quintana to get into Pink. It might be





I think he has to go early in the bottom part of the climb and put TD on the ropes with a gap and then attack again on the 14% grade. After that, it's back to TD favourable grades, so he needs some partners who will come with him and TTT on the less steep parts to sustain the gap.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
I think Nibali and Quintana are here to win the Giro right? Well, the only thing they did was to try to make me lose today. "

Uh...I'm pretty sure the first step in winning is dropping the fastest guy. I hope TD is just pretending to be upset as gamesmanship and doesn't genuinely believe that Quintana and Nibali were supposed to close down Pinot for him.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I think he has to go early in the bottom part of the climb and put TD on the ropes with a gap and then attack again on the 14% grade. After that, it's back to TD favourable grades, so he needs some partners who will come with him and TTT on the less steep parts to sustain the gap.

That would be awesome. But there is one problem. There is no possible "partner" because new riders are not allowed to enter the race.

To this point there has been no one who could go with Quintana whom TD could not follow, and if Movistar sends teammates up the road they are spent by the time Quintana bridges to them and can't pull away from TD.

For all the criticism of Sunweb, I think TD's team won the race for him today. They were pulling in front quite a bit up to Gardena, keeping the break at about two minutes. By the time Quintana attacked on Gardena he had lost all his teammates. He did have Amador and Anacona up front, but by some reports they did not drop back to help him but in fact were dropped by the break which had to ride hard to stay out in front. That report seems plausible to me as evidently Amador and Anacona did not have much left in the tank because at the pace they could muster, TD was able to pull himself and all the other GC guys up to them by the top of the climb.

Should Quintana and Nibali have dropped Amador and Anacona and gone at a harder pace up Gardena? Sure they could have. But then it would be two guys together on 30+ km non-technical descent and flat before the final climb vs. large group of GC contenders behind.

Quintana might be the strongest on the 14% but the second strongest on the steep (and overall strongest), and best candidate to be his partner is TD. Nibali potentially could be that Quintana's attack partner on Chianzutan (is this stage in China?), but the two would face 60 km of flat before the final climb. I don't see it happening -- but it would be exciting if it did. If half of Movistar and Bahrain teams are in a break before Chianzutan, then TD may have poop again if Quintana and Nibali go on Chianzutan.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
I think he has to go early in the bottom part of the climb and put TD on the ropes with a gap and then attack again on the 14% grade. After that, it's back to TD favourable grades, so he needs some partners who will come with him and TTT on the less steep parts to sustain the gap.

Yep, pretty much - the first 5K of Piancavallo are Q and Nibs' last really good opportunity to put some time into Dumoulin.

Some badly miscalculated tactics played out today for Quintana and Nibali. Their negative racing put Pinot back within range of the podium. They may not care whether they finish 2nd or 4th, but that's not the issue. The issue is that they just ensured that Francaise des Jeux will be riding hard and not letting Q or Nibs go anywhere.

Dumoulin suddenly has another team whose interests are directly aligned with his. His team is really weak on the climbs, so this is a big plus for him. Pinot is not really interested in attacking Dumoulin; his interest is in keeping the podium within range so that he can get there with a good TT on Sunday.

Reichenbach has been an amazing domestique for Pinot, and you can bet that if Quintana and Nibali manage to make a move on Piancavallo, Reichenbach will be riding tempo, tapping out the rhythm bringing them back, with Pinot on his wheel, and Dumoulin right behind.

This was an unforced error on the part of Movistar and Bahrain-Merida. Seemed like a good idea in the heat of the moment, bu I'm sure they're regretting it now that they have had time to reflect.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [eb] [ In reply to ]
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This was an unforced error on the part of Movistar and Bahrain-Merida.

-----
Except the position they are in made it more of a forced error. ETA: I say error because it didn't work, but as Trail put it...they are trailing..they had to attack...they attacked....it didn't work...maybe it works tomorrow and maybe it doesn't. But they are in position they are that leaves them attacking like this.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: May 25, 17 22:38
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [eb] [ In reply to ]
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eb wrote:

Some badly miscalculated tactics played out today for Quintana and Nibali.

I didn't see negative racing. Or bad tactics. They threw down their attacks. They just didn't work. Maybe you think that they had a lot of extra power left at the end and could have tried to bridge up to Pinot. Sure didn't look like it to me. I thought it took just about everything Quintana had to reel TD's counter-attack back in, and he was happy just to make it back to his wheel.

There was no tactic that was going to work on Dumoulin today. He was just toying with them.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Triagain3] [ In reply to ]
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Triagain3 wrote:
Td was on Giant in that Veulta. He had no team, they were there for the sprint stages. Astana took it to him on that stage. Sent two strong riders up the road and Giant could not match it. When he was isolated Aru attacked, he bridged to his teammates and dropped the hammer.

TD was alone and got crushed. This current team would handle the situation better and prevent the isolation. That an TD is a different rider in this Giro.

That is just my take, I could be remembering things wrong.

This is the same team, just the name has changed. To your point though, Astana used a simple recipe to hammer him then - I don't think it will work here. Hes' missing Wilco Keldermans thanks to the Blockhaus incident but hes still got LTD and some good young climbers. Moreover, hes got a lot of other guys who also think they can get on the podium or want the white jersey. Yates (Orica), Formolo (Cannondale) and Jungels (Quickstep) are all riding for the white jersey and that dynamic could really help Sunweb.
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [PT] [ In reply to ]
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Oh man, drama yet again
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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word on the street is gremlin Quintana and goblin (shark) Nibali attacked when Dumoulin was taking a nature break.
Last edited by: echappist: May 26, 17 5:36
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
word on the street is gremlin Quintana and goblin (shark) Nibali attacked when Dumoulin was taking a nature break.


Dumoulin doesn't appear to be upset with them if that was the case.

Edit: On Italian TV one the Subweb people just said he was simply caught toward the back of the bunch when the acceleration occurred, he wasn't stopped for a nature break.
Last edited by: ThisIsIt: May 26, 17 5:56
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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Another nature break. What is wrong with this guy's bladder?

Did he have is partially removed as a weight saving method?
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
word on the street is gremlin Quintana and goblin (shark) Nibali attacked when Dumoulin was taking a nature break.

yeah the Brit commentators say it's just not cricket..........

Cannondale in the break again...looks like Rally missed the break...no, wait, they missed the race.....maybe the TdF....no wait, they'll be in Minnesota racing against local bike shop teams......are they booked up during the Vuelta?
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
echappist wrote:
word on the street is gremlin Quintana and goblin (shark) Nibali attacked when Dumoulin was taking a nature break.


yeah the Brit commentators say it's just not cricket..........

Cannondale in the break again...looks like Rally missed the break...no, wait, they missed the race.....maybe the TdF....no wait, they'll be in Minnesota racing against local bike shop teams......are they booked up during the Vuelta?

I raced with Britton back in Sask. when he was a junior. Good kid. Road an awesome TOC.


All of TD's stop seem ominous...
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:
I'd be more of a fan if, for instance, he targeted Lombardia now.


ditto. I like TJ. i think some of his sour-graping is 'cause he's really putting himself out there.
so GT GCs have yet to pan out. so what. not everyone can be the next Froome.
perhaps the kid could be the next Gilbert.
that would be a great objective.

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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Triagain3] [ In reply to ]
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Triagain3 wrote:
McNulty wrote:
echappist wrote:
word on the street is gremlin Quintana and goblin (shark) Nibali attacked when
I raced with Britton back in Sask. when he was a junior. Good kid. Road an awesome TOC.

no doubt....they're doing great...Huffman as well
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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that bottle throw was awesome lulz
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Re: Giro Stage by Stage - Discussion & Debate (Spoiler Alert) [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Sean H wrote:
that bottle throw was awesome lulz

that was cool....i'm going to start doing that.....
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