I think the X factor for Quintana is how the rest of the podium contenders perform in relation to each other. Quintana needs to make a strong move...but he can't do it by himself. There are a ton of situations that would call for contenders to potentially work with Quintana to gain time on TD (if it means possibly jumping spots with another podium contender), and there are just as many situations where contenders would just sit on Quintana and let him burn himself out to pounce on him.
If the gaps between 3rd-5th were closer to TD and/or TD wasn't a superior TTer, I think the others would be more likely to work with Quintana to drop TD...but they need to put around 5 plus minutes into TD before the TT. I think Pinot and Nibali understand that their current goals are the podium and are not the same as Quintana...who should be going all in for Pink.
If the gaps between 3rd-5th were closer to TD and/or TD wasn't a superior TTer, I think the others would be more likely to work with Quintana to drop TD...but they need to put around 5 plus minutes into TD before the TT. I think Pinot and Nibali understand that their current goals are the podium and are not the same as Quintana...who should be going all in for Pink.