In 24 hours time, the men's race will be underway, the women's elite finished. Any predictions or thoughts?

With the women, if Gwen Jorgensen wins, then it proves she can win anywhere. I have a hunch that the descent will cause havoc. I just hope some girls have the courage to try to win the race by biking aggressively. I'm expecting Vicky Holland on the podium unless she has a very poor swim...

The men's race is another kettle of fish. My expectation, based on rumour and reading between the lines, is that Gomez will dial in a performance (which is likely to be pretty good) and make no attempt to win. But I expect Alistair Brownlee to take off relatively soon on the bike on a suicidal solo break. He'll reach T2 with a very substantial lead and will then either withdraw, or else jog home on one foot, to be overtaken by some French athletes... and possibly half the field. On current form, I think Vincent Luis is the favourite, given Gomez's lack of interest.

Wonder how many deals get made in this sport and at this level what with all the different motivations going on. For someone in a "top 8" situation, guys who are already guaranteed could really help you out

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I think you're spot on with your prediction. On the mens side Javier's comments seem strange, he is the consummate racer so it seems foreign to me that he would give anything other than 100% as he always seems to do. An AB at full effort on the bike will be difficult for them to contain...such a shame we won't get to watch it live as I think you're right he will cause havoc on that hill.

I think the Gwen show will roll on unchallenged tomorrow. I don't see anyone beating her, they have made some in-roads over the sprint distance but she is in a class of her own over the more strength oriented 10km. I see Vicky Holland and Groffy fighting it out for 2nd most likely. If a break does go clear on the bike I see the likes of Andrea Hewitt, Gwen, Flora Duffy, Helen Jenkins etc taking advantage of it, but ultimately they'll be racing for 2nd and this would be my biggest criticism of the women's racing at the mo - the boys take it to each other every week. Few of the girls seem willing to, they seem happy to just position themselves to just get the blazer next year.

The heat may be a factor, it seems strange I've heard from quite a few that it isn't an issue (support staff), and yet Lauren's first comment after the race was she was cooking, so it is certainly something they'll need to keep in mind, but they're all pros and have raced in hot / hotter before, more so than the Paratri's so less of an issue perhaps - time will tell.

The periscope thingy was better than nothing, I don't quite understand it to be honest people have started 'following' me on there I thought I was just watching a video. Hoping they have someone positioned on the hill tomorrow for us to see some actually footage of them racing up it.

 I think Gwen misses the front pack but the infighting amongst the Brits and the American girls at the front means Gwen is only down a manageable gap and runs by everyone to win with ease. I think True sits on the break most of the time under the premise that she is in a 1on1 race with Katie Z. I think Katie still beats her in about 4th place. I think Non misses the front group, gets into the third group which merges with the 2nd group by about halfway and runs to 3rd. I think Jenkins and Holland make the front group and Holland gets 2nd.

What type of current(s) are we talking about here??? Slower or faster than average on the swim??? Or does that remain to be seen on the day???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

It's tidal isn't it so it's always going to change, but it's about understanding the local patterns, some interesting insights here from the NZ team if you want to have a read:

https://triathlon.kiwi/high-performance/blog/testing-rio-inside-the-team-at-the-olympic-test-event/


I quite like their approach, blending the science with someone likes Laurent's knowledge > craft coaching.

Wow, thanks for that link, very interesting, what with Laurent swimming and Rita following on the paddle-board with the "yacht-bot". Very cool, hopefully Laurent won't get sick after braving the waters there. Will be interesting to see if the tides throw very many swimmers off course. I'll be following the twitter updates on triathlonlive.tv, one of the best uses of $22 I've made:)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Is AB injured again? Has he said he's just doing the bike? Just seeing your comments I wondered if you had inside info?

Madrid 2013 was what, three years into Gwen riding a bike. She is a bit faster on the bike now.

Nothing officially confirmed but it is strongly rumoured that AB has done no running for the past month. Whether he is now improving or whether he is still in the middle of his problem, I don't know. Guess we'll find out tomorrow. On the other hand, he has been doing a huge amount on the bike and as he done well in races before having done minimal run training (Kitzbuhel, Hamburg, Stockholm 2013, for example, Edmonton last year), it would seem logical that he might try to win by a long solo run and a jog home. Until we see the race, we won't know how they cope with the hills en masse but it seems likely that there won't be quite the same organised chases that we see on flat courses. And if Brownlee was to break from a front pack break, that two might disintegrate and we could see his pursuers working in ones and twos, rather than as a proper chase pack. Such a shame we won't be able to see it. My feeling is that Alistair is not in the shape to win but will try to conjure a win nonetheless...

The odds that Sky are offering are quite revealing. It is Gwen against the field, she is 4/9 and the next best is Holland who is miles behind at 9/1. Quite remarkable, I'm not sure what other sporting event in the world is so one sided with one person so dominate against the field.

Brownlee is surprisingly significantly ahead of Gomez at 5/6 and 3/1. Luis is next best at 4/1.

David Hauss is shockingly at 125/1.

Bad news for USA, Jarrod Shoemaker fell off his bike in practise, broke his collar bone and has had to withdraw...

Where is the best place to follow today's race on-line?

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
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It says no live broadcasting of the events at http://www.triathlon.org/live

Only live tracking - so annoying!

 Gotcha. Thank you so much.

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Ridiculous we are watching such an important event in such a manner. But an instagram video has been uploaded, showing the start. It seems athletes were unsure when to start and Gwen Jorgensen was left standing on the line (only a few seconds disadvantage...)

I think it was Zafares.

Zaferes is not tall and spindly ... someone else was left even more behind but her costume was not American, otherwise I could imagine that was Katie Z. Not that it really matters!

It is ridiculous you're right, but having 'watched' really important qualifiers like this before in 2005, 2007 etc before the advent of periscope and twitter and all this other fluff, when we just had 'dial up' (do you remember that shit) from the other side of the world wondering how your wife is getting on, I can tell you this is a 1000% times better! :)

I'm just glad I don't have a dog in this fight, sounds like the swim is a little bit of a shit fight.

They are out, led by Rebecca Clarke of NZ ... not the sort of time gaps I was expecting. Even Anne Haug was less than 30 seconds down.

You can see a definitive 'Z' on her costume. It reads Zafares.

http://i.imgur.com/hyieATk.png

I stand corrected!! Thanks...

 
Brakes squealing on the descent - what did we say. Some of those girls will be getting dropped on the downhill.

No worries! Apparently Helen Jenkins has withdrawn after being kicked in the swim!

Amazingly, a front pack of 29. Didn't expect that... thought it would be much more selective earlier on...