darkhorsetri wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
If you don't mind, how many times have you been tested, either at a race or OOC? I'm just curious.
Never....well, at least in triathlon. Back when I was competing for a spot on the USRowing worlds team in '01 I got to pee in a cup at trials. That was it.
And presumably there is, in your mind, close to a zero probability of you ever having to pee in a cup, at the behest of WTC?
See, this is what I meant when I said earlier there must be some low hanging fruit. Let's make some assumptions, and suggest there is a 0.1% chance of you being asked to pee in a cup after your next Ironman race (in your mind). In other words, a one in a thousand chance.
But then suddenly WTC
does ask a random handful of podium finishers to do just that after some of their 140.6 or 70.3 races. Word gets around. Now you think, hmm, it's still pretty unlikely they ask me to pee in a cup, but I guess there's alot more chance now. Maybe (again, in your mind), the chance has now gone up to 1.0%. One in a hundred.
In other words, in this example, in your mind the perceived chances of you being asked to pee into a cup after an Ironman has increased by a factor of ten! You now percieve it to be ten times more likely you could be tested. Not twice as likely, ten times as likely!
Now considering many AG dopers are likely doing it pretty blind - ie. just injecting a little EPO at a time and hoping for the best - and given many of them have professional careers they would not want to be tarnished by being caught cheating at a sport, I think that a large percentage of them would be deterred by the scenario above. I may be wrong, but this is my gut feeling.
Now I understand this is looking only at in-competition testing, but if the perception grows that in-competition testing is being done more frequently then that could also raise the perceived probability of OOC testing occuring. At least enough of an effect to deter those really worried about their reputations. Maybe I'm way off base on all of this, but based on this thread and other threads on the topic, it seems to me that WTC could be doing something more at a relatively low cost to deter AG doping.