The only person I can see needing a holding place is Vicky Holland.
Pretty sure Johnny will actually do the race. He needs the ranking to get into a WTS race and has said that he is willing to go to world cups.
I mean who would he be a holding place for? There are right British men already on the start list

Didnt event check the men's start list. But I wouldnt expect USAT to send a full support staff like they do at WTCS or home championship level events if that's the case.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I posted about this on the wrong (Gwen) thread. Yeah, I'm not sure what is up with the relay and accepting 0 points.

This afternoon I'm going to look into how realistic it is that the US drops out of the relay rankings. Just a hunch but maybe they are bringing two guys just for the relays. I'd like to see Mac and Seth show their cards in the relay format. Honestly it makes a lot of sense to tell them now that the discretion spot will be based on the relay NOT who can finish higher in the individual.

Knibb said point blank at Endurance Exchange that her goal (per the advice of her coach) is to race the best in the world over short course in the lead up to Paris and that includes Yokohama... now if the start list looks weak, there's a chance that she pulls out but I understood it to mean that her coach wants her practicing race craft over short course as much as possible in the first half of the 2024 season.

I can quite believe that after missing the podium because of the SNAFU in T2 in Paris, one of the Olympic preparation threads will be to practise those in 'race conditions'. She drifted from near lead to the very back of the pack (joining Rappaport) so entered T2 at +5 and left having spent 8+ seconds longer than Spivey in transition. Great run but in the end trying to catch those two (Lindemann and Lombardi) fighting for bronze and AQ, the start she gave them was a few seconds too much.
So on that test race evidence, Knibb can make the podium IF she gets that sorted, remembering that she'd done a fair amount at or near the front pulling it along and tiring the legs of others. An early 100km race in the US in March to stretch the legs?

Knibb will be marked like a hawk by the other key players: France, Deutschland and GBR will have two each on that 'duty'. Assumes no GTB Duffy et al breakaway.

I guess what I’m saying is that I think for the 1st time usat is going to “pull rank” and sub her out if she nominates herself, which they obviously have the full ability to do.

I think with how inconclusive the remaining 5 are (Spivey KK Rapp KZ GJ….yes I know I skipped GS), usat needs are imo likely greater than the needs of Knibb. IE- they need all 5 to race and let that help figure it out.

So I’ve always mentioned usat not pulling rank but they also never have needed too. I think in this instance they basically have too. Even at the peril of their top athletes “Paris prep”.

To @pk's point- GJ is in the "safe" zone to make race starts yet she's one of the worst WTCS ability athletes so far for the US. KZ is likely still clearly better than GJ when you put WTCS field in play, yet GJ played the "points game" and has done her homework to be in a safe ranking spot (unless she of course gets subbed out; but anyone in top 5 can get subbed out at any race). Thus USAT has to sorta figure out a way to get all the "key players" on the same race day roster at some point.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

On the relays, the US currently stands 6th. Only two races left, Napier and AD

I believe the Napier event is classified as an 800 point race.

Australia (currently 7th) get 1st or 2nd they move past the US.
If either Spain and Norway (currently 8th/9th) do really well at Napier then the could move into position to pass the US at Abu Dhabi.
Italy (current 10th) needs a 3rd (or better) in Napier and then to beat the US by maybe two places to pass the US
Belgium (11th) is making a mistake not doing the Napier race. Because of this they cannot pass the US
Portugal (12th) cannot pass the US even with 2 wins.
Hungary (13th) and Denmark could both pass the US but only with two wins. Even a 1/2 would get it done for them.

No need to worry about this. They are going to end up around 9th even if they DNF at AD.

I think I did all this a few months ago and forgot, btw.

So I’ve always mentioned usat not pulling rank but they also never have needed too. I think in this instance they basically have too. Even at the peril of their top athletes “Paris prep”. //

I think you maybe be right in one aspect, just have who it will be backwards. I dont think they will mess with Knibb at all if she chooses to race. The smart move would be to take out KK or GS. Spivey and Rapp have more than earned their ways in to a shot, and each could provide an upset, the others no chance. And even if 2/3 of the field crashed out and one of those gals came in, it would be a nightmare for USAT to be forced to honor that spot..


I think it will be GJ and KZ fighting it out with Spivey, Rapp, and Knibb if she chooses. The US team could live with any of those ladies for the MTR, Knibb and Spivey being the best for those 2 slots. The other ladies not here would most likely lose any chance we had at a medal in the relay if they were to slide onto the team by happenstance, like what happened last time around..


it just feels to me that Knibb is going to be their girl, and she will get carte blanc to do whatever she wants to from here on out...Maybe even a PTO race in there somewhere, but probably not til after the games on that one...

i mean gs has never made a top 30 in a world series race ever gwen at least has won an oly title and got 24th in a world series last year .
zaferes has a 12th in test event and a 5th in montreal world series race and won a medal in tokjo . and was solid in all the other worls series races
to sub out gs with gj that would be a bit harder to justify, but in zaferes case i think the performance stats at the highest level are very clear.

I think the only issue is who do you sit out. I don't think GS is going to pass GJ even if she is trying to. So the ranking order is as follows:

Spivey
Rapp
Knibb (AQ'd)
KK
GJ
GS (she likely is going to try and pass GJ with the spring WC's but she loses alot of points from AG's drop off)
KZ

Yet KK has the better results than most other US women at the test event and GF. So is she only 4th due to not racing enough?

I dont really know how you can pick one or the other honestly. Rapp/Kasper imo are no better or worse and Rapp as a MTR athlete is completely out of the quesiton imo (her bike I think is too much of liability). Rapp's "potential" is at this point in the game....she is what she is (great runner on paper that gets in races and race tactics causes her fatigue/issues that invalidates that great run potential).

So the "easiest" decision is to quietly ask/suggest/tell Knibb not to race Yoko.

Every other gal has sorta their plus and minuses, and very few actually have podium potential (and that includes KZ and GJ in that discussion). So it's freaking hard decision, do you work with your only AQ athlete and let her race what she wants? Or do you quietly ask her to race Cagliari instead and the puzzle is solved by that move.

Hell if knibb races I would take out GJ in favor of KZ because unless you make the front group I just don’t think you’re worth even the “hedging your bet” side of the sport. GJ has more to prove than anyone really.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

And here's where a shrewd Knibb can reply, if you don't want me to race, what are you going to do for me? I'm giving up an opportunity I earned for myself and my sponsors for "the team". The other teammates gain, I lose. What concessions or benefits, etc. will you make for me? Maybe there's blessings for PTO races. Maybe other support from that bottomless well of AG-racer membership surcharged, who knows.

Everything is a negotiation, she's playing it or being played.

And a shrewd HP program can not ask and just say you’re not racing- IE FRA in the ‘22 Grand Final to a top 20 ranked athlete. Athlete didn’t quit itu, so neither would Knibb storm off and not race Paris.

So she can demand anything she wants, I just don’t know what usat would give her? She’s likely not even a medal favorite at this point, this isn’t a GJ type of situation going into Rio. She’s had 1 podium in the last year, I don’t know that she has a ton of bargaining chips on her end.


It’s a foregone conclusion that Knibb will drop her national team status (funding) after Paris to “free agent” herself to race the events she wants to (Itu and non draft). Very similar to Ben Kanute post Rio. She can race a few itu events to maintain a min ranking while living off her non-draft winnings. So usat won’t really be able to give her much, but again this doesn’t have to be an negiaiton, this can be a “you’re not racing” if need be. If that causes Knibb to skip Olympics, that is as much her own lose as usat’s. No way I see her doing that for some money grab at this point in her career.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Point being she's on the list. She played by the rules earned a right to race for her benefit. Putting someone on the list reduces her benefit and increases sometime else's. Don't give that up for nothing.

She doesn't need to go to the brink on this issue and neither does USAT. But just walking away from it when she can get some kind of concession or quid pro quo isn't smart business.

She might say she doesn't think that way. Fine, but leaving her name off the list directly benefits someone else, and potentially loses her exposure.

Maybe it gets her a dedicated physio, maybe perks for her family in Paris, maybe support through some pto races.

The reality is that spot she's on is extremely valuable for some.

You're missing that USAT doesn't have to have her buy-in to take her off the list if she decides to push the issue

She doesn't need to go to the brink on this issue and neither does USAT. But just walking away from it when she can get some kind of concession or quid pro quo isn't smart business.

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But we are talking about ITU federations ha. So this idea that she's going to have to go business or look bad is not reading the room imo. You want some kick backs? How about free tickets to watch the squash 1st round match of Croatia vs Australia, etc. She's not going to get her own physio at the Olympics- every one of them is there as a "volunteer" (they basically pay their own travel and do it "free"), and the federation certainly isn't going to pay for Knibb's familys accomodations while there (but they certainly will pay for a bunch of USAT "dignitary" who will go to every wine and dine at the Olympics). Negative ghost writer on thinking/asking for support at PTO events, that would never happen. Go ask GJ about support from USAT when she wanted to take a "break" from ITU post Rio. Yeah that would not be reading the room well at all.

So yeah you want to make it business transactions- here are some free tickets to events while in Paris, and maybe a few VIP tickets for post race food. That's about all the "smart business" you'll get out of this transaction.


The likely biggest/best "business transaction" Knibb could ask from USAT- coaching credential for Paris for her personal coach, and even that would likely result in a "nope" so usat "coaching" staff can be on site, while the personal coaches have to run around outside the "venue" among the peanut gallery.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

well but here is the thing atm there is o percent chance that the spot will go to gs not having a single result at world series level. and if there is one thing feds have learned is that you dont use national champ trials or worldcup level races to decide which athelte goes to the Olympics.
it is certainly easier for gj to get her swim and bike to an standard she had in the past than getting gs to a swim standard she never had over the winter. still fact is gj does not have a single result at the highest level yet that would put her in the mix for a discretionary spot atm but she has shown some glimpses of hope.

i think it was good that last year usat gave everybody a chance to race and just used ranking but at some stage to have to make a cut ie its not about rankings its about who races best at the top level of the sport and not in the 2nd highest level of the sport. and then who has reliable results and transition etc
where gwen and katie have an advantage they have proven to be able to perform at oly games so if the decisons are tight that is an advantage for them. well for gwen she first has to be actually in the race when the run starts at world series level.

For all intent purposes, when Arena Games points reshuffle (2 races prior to Yoko start list creation), GS will "fall off" and sorta roll out of the picture. She's going to lose massive points (445+ points) on points reshuffling so she is basically 2 podiums or bust (she's nearly 150 points behind GJ, so add that to the points she'll reshuffle, it's nearly 600 points she must gain in 2 WC's; 750 is the max to gain prior to Yoko start list)I and well she's certainly shown zero race results to think she will podium not once but twice at WC level. She's much more of a development athlete that struggles at the swim and is doing the right thing by racing WC level competition, developing in the sport and being ready to be there for LA Games conversation (when Spivey, Rapp, KZ, KK all "retire" from ITU). Now maybe OB has gotten her swim improved over the winter, but I don't see her showing up and podiuming at WC levels. Mathematically she basically has to podium at both events to get enough points to pass GJ into 5th. So realistically her ranking by the Yoko start list will not be an issue. However if somehow it does become an issue- USAT only can use 1 sub for Yoko. So it would mean Knibb can't be nominated by USAT if they are wanting KZ + GJ to race + the other "key players" in Yoko.

So if'/when she falls out of the picture points wise (and her last AG race won't fall off until the week of Yoko start list), it's back to- will Knibb show up on start list or not. If she doesn't, boom all the key players will make it on. If she nominates, it's who gets subbed out for KZ? Is it Knibb to allow all the key players a "fair shot" at the final AQ? If Knibb stays, who gets subbed out? Would that decision be based on ranking / percieved "best chance" results? To me Spivey is the "safest" pick, followed by KK in terms of you know they can S and B with the front group; only then does the run get affected. Rapp imo has the best "potential" but she has the weakest bike and so eventually if it's a spicy bike is she compromised? But "safe" doesn't win medals (and neither does "potential") and so I have no clue who you would sub out if Knibb was allowed to race Yoko.

Again to me at this point- the weakest WTCS athlete is GJ. She has to showcase the ability to get to T2 in the front at Abu Dhabi (yes I know it's a sprint) imo to justify keeping her in Yoko start list over KZ; *if* Knibb races/stays on the Yoko if USAT obliged Knibb's best "paris prep" strategy. Again the easy play is Knibb isn't in Yoko picture. Then GJ + KZ is 100% guranteed to be there. I think that will 99.99% be the case.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Well you were right in that Potter and Brownlee are gone from the start list. Yee and GTB too.
Hugo Milner is still there. He has been doing extremely well at cross country lately. It will be interesting to see if he can grab the wheel of somebody like Casper Stornes or Haydn Wilde and make the front group.

Someone upthread said Wilde recognised Pearson as a serious threat if there at T2. He'll b****y notice Milner (at 195cm, difficult to miss) along similar lines. His running is worth a 13:20 5km at present. If Jorgensen is a foot race choice, then better believe Milner is up there likewise. But I suspect GBR will not wish to risk him as Leg1 (with Yee on 3) in the MTR so getting those points to earn the third GBR men's slot is critical. Exciting times!

How did you get the "worth 13:20"
I did find a 13:49 5k time for a Hugo Milner, I guess it's the same one? Im curious, did you extrapolate from his recent cross country times. Which have been, well, very good,,!
Not too shabby. Hope they televise this world Cup.
No schedule up yet

Think GB really want Johnny for the relay. He's shown on superleague that he is still one of the best all round triathletes.

Agree GB want (need) Brownlee for leg 1. There’s no doubting Milner’s run, but he’ll be down on the French into T1. Brownlee can swim with any of them (except perhaps Luis, who is by no means certain of a spot) and won’t lose time on the bike or run so will get GB to the second leg in the front pack.

Interesting Gwen is wat listed for the Americas triathlon cup in Cuba. Seems like she picked that over the world cup. Under the wait list she is listed as a late entry, yesterday actually.
Would a win there give her enough points for a start at AD?

Milner has said he's running better than ever. That 13:49 was ?3 years ago and since then he's been (more or less) all in on tri. His XC results are well better than then. Finally he's said that if he doesn't get Olympic selection for tri he will look to get a qual time and selection for the 5 or 10000 (former 13:05 to Q). So 13:20 is my (otherwise uninformed) extrapolation and if he thinks 13:05 is reachable, he'll be at 13:20 right now.
Parliament Fields is ugly but it seems to me far less muddy than bitd. I hated it!
Agree that Brownlee is the clear GBR banker for the MTR, despite individual results at standard last year: can probably plan to take the individual easy or even domestique. He'll know what standard he's at come July. Milner and the rest need to get that third spot to have a chance of a start in Paris. Can Milner swim as fast as Wilde? If so he'd have some fellow travellers in that second/third group up the Champs-Élysées in the early laps on 'catch-up' duty.

with all due respect the guy is good but we should not make the mistake to think a world cup is a world series race most likely you are looking for 2 years development for him .

Abu Dhabi start list is out:

American women- top 5 made it (GJ + No KZ) Assume KZ will start in Miami for that regional champ event (Tommy mentioned on socials race season starts in 1 month)

No Duffy

Strangely enough no Pearson for US men so maybe they are going to use the MTR as a semi battle between McElroy vs Rider (unless they hold Pearson for relay only; they have been known to do relay only athletes)

No JB for GB unless relay only.

Friday will be last day for federation subs.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II