Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [Thorax] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 2:03

Post #26 of 82 (1863 views)

Thorax wrote:

Is there an objective reason why most aren't giving Lange a chance?

Simple: its like last year and the year before.
2016 one great race prior to Kona in IM Texas, which most considered an accident due to shortened course.
2017 Lange was the dark horse in 2016 and was just lucky - no great finishes in important races except... (Ruegen?)
2018 No great race finish, neither Frankfurt, nor Ruegen, nor... just an average 2nd line contender season.

Since 2016 I analyze Lange's career. My perception is as follows for 2018:
- Faris stated several times he believes that there is a finite number of stellar races in one's body in a lifetime and within a year. So he basically had all training geared solely towards Kona. Maybe even telling Lange (my assumption): you choose either Frankfurt or Kona! I bet I know what 95% of the athletes would answer. Kona.
- A Lange team member said in an interview prior to Frankfurt something like: He who wins Kona has last say. I actually felt uneasy hearing it, since it made me believe that Frankfurt is at best low priority for Lange.
- There was a statement somewhere of Lange being ill in the 6 weeks prior to Frankfurt.
- Lange should be (my assumption) still be gearing up for high training volumes. You cant go from 20-30 hours/week of training to 50+ hours/week within a year without risking injury.

Putting it all together I see it this way: Lange was training since Kona 2017 for Kona 2018 only, probably training for base speed in the first half and increasing endurance geared towards Kona in the second part. Frankfurt was probably just a test drive on his new "swim" and "bike" speed. Obviously aware that he may lack the endurance to also have a stellar run. Additional endurance which would be complete later on from high-altitude training and more endurance units.

So far my perception and if somehow right, we would see a stellar race by Lange this year, while he is "under the radar" for most people's perception.

In case its true, it would be the by far smartest season planning I heard of in a long time. Well Faris is smart.... and dedicated..

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [heretic] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 2:07

Post #27 of 82 (1856 views)

heretic wrote:

Thorax wrote:

Is there an objective reason why most aren't giving Lange a chance?

Simple: its like last year and the year before.
2016 one great race prior to Kona in IM Texas, which most considered an accident due to shortened course.
2017 Lange was the dark horse in 2016 and was just lucky - no great finishes in important races except... (Ruegen?)
2018 No great race finish, neither Frankfurt, nor Ruegen, nor... just an average 2nd line contender season.

Since 2016 I analyze Lange's career. My perception is as follows for 2018:
- Faris stated several times he believes that there is a finite number of stellar races in one's body in a lifetime and within a year. So he basically had all training geared solely towards Kona. Maybe even telling Lange (my assumption): you choose either Frankfurt or Kona! I bet I know what 95% of the athletes would answer. Kona.
- A Lange team member said in an interview prior to Frankfurt something like: He who wins Kona has last say. I actually felt uneasy hearing it, since it made me believe that Frankfurt is at best low priority for Lange.
- There was a statement somewhere of Lange being ill in the 6 weeks prior to Frankfurt.
- Lange should be (my assumption) still be gearing up for high training volumes. You cant go from 20-30 hours/week of training to 50+ hours/week within a year without risking injury.

Putting it all together I see it this way: Lange was training since Kona 2017 for Kona 2018 only, probably training for base speed in the first half and increasing endurance geared towards Kona in the second part. Frankfurt was probably just a test drive on his new "swim" and "bike" speed. Obviously aware that he may lack the endurance to also have a stellar run. Additional endurance which would be complete later on from high-altitude training and more endurance units.

So far my perception and if somehow right, we would see a stellar race by Lange this year, while he is "under the radar" for most people's perception.

In case its true, it would be the by far smartest season planning I heard of in a long time. Well Faris is smart.... and dedicated..

The build all year approach to Kona is a smart tactic for several reasons and I believe Lange might show us the first sub-8 performance.

Reminds me of RInny in 2013 I think?

She started off slow and slowly got better all year, higher results, faster times. Won one race all year....Kona and set the course record.

What do people expect from Lange right after his Kona breakout last year....to top that at Frankfurt this year? Or just build all year and show us again in Kona. Hmmmm

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [CU427] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 2:16

Post #28 of 82 (1849 views)

CU427 wrote:

What do people expect from Lange right after his Kona breakout last year....to top that at Frankfurt this year? Or just build all year and show us again in Kona. Hmmmm

Or maybe it was just a Frodeno thing... Being aware Frodeno might want to make a statement in Kraichgau and Frankfurt aiming for a mental hit against Lange for Kona.

Maybe, just maybe Faris is sitting somewhere and having his juicy grin, that Frodeno went for 3-4 season highs, which automatically would decrease Frodenos potential performance for the last high: Kona.

Seriously if thats all close to reality on what happened, by then a lot of people may gasp and breathe heavily when Lange hits the run course...

PS: I forgot, there is also a statement by Lange's run trainer RunnningWulf or so. Apparently a decent guy without any exaggeration telling something like... "For Lange 2:39 marathon in an ironman is more like a start - an average performance within his abilities. Lange's potential is closer to 2:35". In the same interview he elaborated on how Lange is trained to move extremely smooth and even taking advantage of momentum, more like a "ball rolling".
All that while many other athletes are "whobbling" more like cubes being pushed forward against inner body resistance. And moving against resistance costs power and leads to injury...

Last edited by: heretic: Oct 11, 18 2:18

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [heretic] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 3:06

Post #29 of 82 (1819 views)

The reason that most are counting out Lange, is because there is another athlete lining up who has better swim capabilities, equal on the bike and quite a lot better on the run. Lange is a 30 min 10k runner, Gomez is a 28 mid... Huge difference. And maybe Lange's limits are closer to 2:35, but then Gomez is likely 2:30. Remember this is a guy who split 1:15 for the first half in Cairns during his first IM which also was his longest run by far. I think Lange will have a good performance this year, but I don't think it will be nearly enough for the win, and probably the podium.
And you can tout all you want about peaking for Kona, but Lange has stated himself he wanted to run faster in Frankfurt like he did in 2016 (he got outrun by Nilsson both times and I think the same will be true on Saturday).

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [heretic] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 3:11

Post #30 of 82 (1812 views)

Men

Top 3
Gomez
Sanders
Currie

Rest of top 10
Lange
Kienle
Nilsson
Raña
McNamee
Dreitz
Wurf

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 3:22

Post #31 of 82 (1801 views)

oscaro wrote:

The reason that most are counting out Lange, is because there is another athlete lining up who has better swim capabilities, equal on the bike and quite a lot better on the run. Lange is a 30 min 10k runner, Gomez is a 28 mid... Huge difference. And maybe Lange's limits are closer to 2:35, but then Gomez is likely 2:30. Remember this is a guy who split 1:15 for the first half in Cairns during his first IM which also was his longest run by far. I think Lange will have a good performance this year, but I don't think it will be nearly enough for the win, and probably the podium.
And you can tout all you want about peaking for Kona, but Lange has stated himself he wanted to run faster in Frankfurt like he did in 2016 (he got outrun by Nilsson both times and I think the same will be true on Saturday).

Generally am with you except for the Gomez - Lange performance comparison in relation to each other.

So far there was no single race to compare both equally.
It seems Lange's swim is underestimated. Leaving water in 1st chase group doesnt mean someone is not a great swimmer. It may also mean he took fair advantage of drafting in the water conserving power for bike and run. Browsing old race results Lange delivered some stellar swims even against known stellar swimmers. Also Thorsten's trirating lists him as a 5* swimmer together with: Josh Amberger, Braden Currie, Javier Gomez and Tim O'Donnell - putting them in the same league.
Run: there is no constant relation from 10K performance in Olympic races to marathon in IM Kona. Given your assumption, David McNamee is way faster than Lange on the run. Browsing David McNamee's ITU races, he runs as fast as Gomez (but is worse in the swim). Bottom line: it seems Lange has the Kona running Gene, enabling him to perform 100% on the run in Kona. We will see if Gomez has it also?!?

Id put Gomez third simply since except van Lierde I dont recall an athlete winning Kona on his first time. The others hit 3rd at best.

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [heretic] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 3:42

Post #32 of 82 (1787 views)

No his swim is not underestimated, he is a front pack swimmer, but not as fast as Gomez, Jan, Burgs, Ali.
Of course there is a relation between 10k and marathon times, look at the fastest runners and guess who was the best in ITU.
Also not sure what races you are comparing, but McNamee was consistently a few min slower on the run compared to Gomez, some results:
ITU grand final edminton 2014 - Gomez 29:57 - McNamee 31:22
ITU grand final London 2013 - Gomez 29:34 - McNamee 31:09
ITU Stockholm 2013 - Gomez 29:02 - McNamee 30:21
I would say McNamee is pretty similar in running ability compared to Lange, but Lange's size obviously helps him in the heat.
Now, Gomez on the other hand is on a different level. I would say Lange could likely do a mid to high 2:20 open marathon, while Gomez would be mid 2:10. I think it was pretty obvious at 70.3 worlds that the best itu guys (and frodo) have another gear in most situations. We will see on saturday, but assuming Gomez and Lange get off the bike together, my money is on Gomez...

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:02

Post #33 of 82 (1769 views)

oscaro wrote:

. We will see on saturday, but assuming Gomez and Lange get off the bike together, my money is on Gomez...

I can see your logic, but I'm on the guy with 2 Kona sub 2:40's over the rookie who also, to me, looks a little muscular - harder to dissipate heat.

I'd love to see it though....

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:04

Post #34 of 82 (1767 views)

oscaro wrote:

No his swim is not underestimated, he is a front pack swimmer, but not as fast as Gomez, Jan, Burgs, Ali.

Sorry even trirating disagress on that putting them in the same league. Yet what I agree to: Lange's swim perforance is jumpy, reaching from average to stellar, while Gomez/Frodeno are more consistent.

oscaro wrote:

Of course there is a relation between 10k and marathon times, look at the fastest runners and guess who was the best in ITU.

Alistair? Of course there is a relation yet it doesnt 100% relay from 10K to marathon in Kona.

oscaro wrote:

Also not sure what races you are comparing, but McNamee was consistently a few min slower on the run compared to Gomez, some results:

It seems you are right. I was sure to recall two races in the sub30 area by McNamee but cant find those. Maybe a glitch in my memory - I am sorry.

Still the comparison McNamee - Gomez - Lange holds some credit. So we know McNamee could race competitive still in ITU (at app. 1% - 3.5% slower than Gomez). Lange is faster than McNamee putting him way closer to Gomez.

And now we keep in mind that Kona is a race in endurance and against weather conditions. So we shall see...

Bottom line: gonna be exciting Saturday, while I expect a run train of maybe Lange/Gomez/McNamee/Sanders/Nilsson hammering the run to catch the Uberbikers and each other.Lots of poential duels. Lots of tension going on....

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:12

Post #35 of 82 (1757 views)

TRO Saracen wrote:

oscaro wrote:

. We will see on saturday, but assuming Gomez and Lange get off the bike together, my money is on Gomez...

I can see your logic, but I'm on the guy with 2 Kona sub 2:40's over the rookie who also, to me, looks a little muscular - harder to dissipate heat.

I'd love to see it though....

Yepp def too muscular...

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Last edited by: oscaro: Oct 11, 18 4:13

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [kjmcawesome] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:17

Post #36 of 82 (1751 views)

Currie, sebi, Gomez

Charles, ryf, frederiksen

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:27

Post #37 of 82 (1736 views)

In an open marathon I would put my money on Gomez. Same for 10k Oly distance run.

What some people might neglect is that they need to go hard for 5 hours before they even start.
In the past Gomez seemed to struggle a little bit more on the bike.
If he has to put out 10W over his "ideal race power" to stay and the group this will play a huge role in the latter half of the marathon.
Also there are some good-but-not-awesome bikers in the group who wont be able to with the Sanders-Kienle-Wurf train, but they will probably try to get away from the top runners. ( Dreitz, Weiss, McKenzie and others)

The pace in the second half of the bike wont be easy in the chase/main group and Lange will either be able to get a gap to Gomez or save some matches.

Just my 0.02 btw

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:28

Post #38 of 82 (1732 views)

oscaro wrote:

TRO Saracen wrote:

oscaro wrote:

. We will see on saturday, but assuming Gomez and Lange get off the bike together, my money is on Gomez...

I can see your logic, but I'm on the guy with 2 Kona sub 2:40's over the rookie who also, to me, looks a little muscular - harder to dissipate heat.

I'd love to see it though....

Yepp def too muscular...

I am a little bit shocked - thats below 5% body fat...

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [anakinpm] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:29

Post #39 of 82 (1729 views)

anakinpm wrote:

Men

Top 3
Gomez
Sanders
Currie

Rest of top 10
Lange
Kienle
Nilsson
Raña
McNamee
Dreitz
Wurf

I see a lot of people predicting Gomez. Has a rookie ever won Kona?

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [Fishbum] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:41

Post #40 of 82 (1714 views)

He may not win, I agree with that. But I only see two rookies capable of winning in their first Kona. Those are Javier Gomez and Alistair Brownlee.

Javi Gomez is the most decorated athlete in the history of the sport. That does not mean he is going to win Kona but it's good hope. Most of guys in the past few years moving to long distance have done it because of Javi's dictatorship in short distance

His debut in Cairns was 7:50 or something like that. It was the longest he had ever run and had cramping in the last 10k... for a marathon of 2:40.

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 4:53

Post #41 of 82 (1711 views)

Just been a few pics this year when I've though 'hmmm, big set of quads you've grown there Javi' - heat control is a surface area/leanness/bodyweight equation. Big thick muscles generate lots of heat deep inside which needs to be dissipated at the surface even when you are lean from body fat % perspective.

Having said that Gomez is THAT good that it may be a 2:38 vs 2:40 sort of difference....

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [anakinpm] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 5:12

Post #42 of 82 (1687 views)

Men:

Sanders - just holds off a charging Patrick
Lange - runs them all down except Lionel
Gomez - runs with Lange but can't quite hang in the last 10k

Dark Horse - Patrick Nilsson- young and rising star

Women:

Ryf - only illness, injury, crash can stop her
Charles - how many years before she surpasses Daniela?
Jahn - also my dark horse - trained by Sutton - Kirsty won back to back IMs this summer

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http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Last edited by: Scotttriguy: Oct 11, 18 5:13

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [Fishbum] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 5:43

Post #43 of 82 (1659 views)

Fishbum wrote:

I see a lot of people predicting Gomez. Has a rookie ever won Kona?

I thought Luc van Lierde 1999 but just saw he was also in it in 1998.

So....
1978 Gordon Haller
1980 Dave Scott

Anyone else?

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [Fishbum] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 6:08

Post #44 of 82 (1634 views)

Fishbum wrote:

I see a lot of people predicting Gomez. Has a rookie ever won Kona?

He's a smart racer and has the skills required to race that way. I wouldn't be surprised to see him follow Josh in the swim and then the start of the bike. This will allow him to not burn any matches at the beginning of the bike and then be able to slot in when the chase pack catches him. Then he will ride all day conserving as much energy as possible. I have no doubt he's going to have a killer run. It's just going to come down to how much time the uber bikers can put on him, as well as just how good Lange will run.

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [Sean H] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 6:20

Post #45 of 82 (1622 views)

1.Gomez 2. Lange 3. McNamee

1.Ryf 2. Charles 3. True

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [heretic] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 6:32

Post #46 of 82 (1604 views)

+1 on Hutthaler dnf please. Plus another notable two men AGers

Ryf
Charles
True

Semi
Javi
Currie

And fingers crossed Brownie makes top 10 for the old guys 👍

'to give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift'...Pre

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [NordicSkier] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 6:40

Post #47 of 82 (1591 views)

NordicSkier wrote:

Gomez
Nillson
Keinle

Ryf - new course record. I've watched her interviews and Instagram and I've never her seen looking as fit EVER. I'd be surprised if she's not in the lead by mile 40 on the bike.
Haug
True

Ryf didn’t even pass LC until 90+ miles into the bike and now that LC has tremendously improved her biking abilities no way that even happens!

Only way LC doesn’t get into the bike course with 5+min on Ryf and it’d be because Sarah True towed Ryf all the way into T1 faster than she can do it on her own!!!

LC would’ve put at least another minute on Ryf at 70.3 worlds if it wasn’t for Sarah True towing everyone in!!!

But we just gonna have to wait and see... I’ll give LC a 2min lead on the run course on Ryf

Speed kills unless you have speed skills!!!

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [Thorax] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 7:00

Post #48 of 82 (1569 views)

Thorax wrote:

Is there an objective reason why most aren't giving Lange a chance?

Vegans have poor longevity.

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [kjmcawesome] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 7:11

Post #49 of 82 (1548 views)

Ryf
Charles
Jackson

Sanders
Kienle
Gomez

Re: OFFICIAL Kona Prediction Thread [heretic] [ In reply to ]

Oct 11, 18 7:24

Post #50 of 82 (1534 views)

heretic wrote:

Fishbum wrote:

I see a lot of people predicting Gomez. Has a rookie ever won Kona?

I thought Luc van Lierde 1999 but just saw he was also in it in 1998.

1978 Gordon Haller
1980 Dave Scott

Anyone else?

LvL won it in '96. Course record 8:04, in his first ever Ironman distance.

29 years and counting

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