Sanders will have a poster of Gomez up in his pain cave by Halloween

Is there an objective reason why most aren't giving Lange a chance?

Simple: its like last year and the year before.
2016 one great race prior to Kona in IM Texas, which most considered an accident due to shortened course.
2017 Lange was the dark horse in 2016 and was just lucky - no great finishes in important races except... (Ruegen?)
2018 No great race finish, neither Frankfurt, nor Ruegen, nor... just an average 2nd line contender season.

Since 2016 I analyze Lange's career. My perception is as follows for 2018:
- Faris stated several times he believes that there is a finite number of stellar races in one's body in a lifetime and within a year. So he basically had all training geared solely towards Kona. Maybe even telling Lange (my assumption): you choose either Frankfurt or Kona! I bet I know what 95% of the athletes would answer. Kona.
- A Lange team member said in an interview prior to Frankfurt something like: He who wins Kona has last say. I actually felt uneasy hearing it, since it made me believe that Frankfurt is at best low priority for Lange.
- There was a statement somewhere of Lange being ill in the 6 weeks prior to Frankfurt.
- Lange should be (my assumption) still be gearing up for high training volumes. You cant go from 20-30 hours/week of training to 50+ hours/week within a year without risking injury.

Putting it all together I see it this way: Lange was training since Kona 2017 for Kona 2018 only, probably training for base speed in the first half and increasing endurance geared towards Kona in the second part. Frankfurt was probably just a test drive on his new "swim" and "bike" speed. Obviously aware that he may lack the endurance to also have a stellar run. Additional endurance which would be complete later on from high-altitude training and more endurance units.

So far my perception and if somehow right, we would see a stellar race by Lange this year, while he is "under the radar" for most people's perception.

In case its true, it would be the by far smartest season planning I heard of in a long time. Well Faris is smart.... and dedicated..

What do people expect from Lange right after his Kona breakout last year....to top that at Frankfurt this year? Or just build all year and show us again in Kona. Hmmmm

The reason that most are counting out Lange, is because there is another athlete lining up who has better swim capabilities, equal on the bike and quite a lot better on the run. Lange is a 30 min 10k runner, Gomez is a 28 mid... Huge difference. And maybe Lange's limits are closer to 2:35, but then Gomez is likely 2:30. Remember this is a guy who split 1:15 for the first half in Cairns during his first IM which also was his longest run by far. I think Lange will have a good performance this year, but I don't think it will be nearly enough for the win, and probably the podium.
And you can tout all you want about peaking for Kona, but Lange has stated himself he wanted to run faster in Frankfurt like he did in 2016 (he got outrun by Nilsson both times and I think the same will be true on Saturday).

. We will see on saturday, but assuming Gomez and Lange get off the bike together, my money is on Gomez...

No his swim is not underestimated, he is a front pack swimmer, but not as fast as Gomez, Jan, Burgs, Ali.

Of course there is a relation between 10k and marathon times, look at the fastest runners and guess who was the best in ITU.

Also not sure what races you are comparing, but McNamee was consistently a few min slower on the run compared to Gomez, some results:

I can see your logic, but I'm on the guy with 2 Kona sub 2:40's over the rookie who also, to me, looks a little muscular - harder to dissipate heat.

I'd love to see it though....

Yepp def too muscular...

Men

Top 3
Gomez
Sanders
Currie

Rest of top 10
Lange
Kienle
Nilsson
Raña
McNamee
Dreitz
Wurf

I see a lot of people predicting Gomez. Has a rookie ever won Kona?

I see a lot of people predicting Gomez. Has a rookie ever won Kona?

Gomez
Nillson
Keinle

Ryf - new course record. I've watched her interviews and Instagram and I've never her seen looking as fit EVER. I'd be surprised if she's not in the lead by mile 40 on the bike.
Haug
True

Is there an objective reason why most aren't giving Lange a chance?

I thought Luc van Lierde 1999 but just saw he was also in it in 1998.

1978 Gordon Haller
1980 Dave Scott

Anyone else?

LvL won it in '96. Course record 8:04, in his first ever Ironman distance.

Javi Gomez is the most decorated athlete in the history of the sport.

Is there an objective reason why most aren't giving Lange a chance?

Ryf didn’t even pass LC until 90+ miles into the bike and now that LC has tremendously improved her biking abilities no way that even happens!

Only way LC doesn’t get into the bike course with 5+min on Ryf and it’d be because Sarah True towed Ryf all the way into T1 faster than she can do it on her own!!!

LC would’ve put at least another minute on Ryf at 70.3 worlds if it wasn’t for Sarah True towing everyone in!!!

But we just gonna have to wait and see... I’ll give LC a 2min lead on the run course on Ryf

Charles blew herself to bits to hang on.

Not so sure about that, she still ran 1:20 which is good for her at this time. This could all be gamesmanship, but she said in the Talbot interview that she was comfortable following Ryf and took a lot of confidence in that especially since she didn't even target 70.3 worlds with her training.

I predict Lange will win again. I also predict that once he does:

1. Some on Slowtwitch will say he was drafting
2. Macca will say he only won because Jan pulled out
3. In typical millennial fashion, other pros will say that they need to change the Championship venue because they can't win in Kona

Made my day. Imagined Macca stating it...

Macca says, "in the back of his/her mind" a lot. He'll also drop "he/she knows," as if he gets to speak for them.

I do find him interesting, though.

Not so sure about that, she still ran 1:20 which is good for her at this time. This could all be gamesmanship, but she said in the Talbot interview that she was comfortable following Ryf and took a lot of confidence in that especially since she didn't even target 70.3 worlds with her training.

What happened to Talbot's response that Lange's manager asked for money for an interview?

Men:

1. Kienle
2. Sanders
3. Gomez

Women:

1. Charles
2. Ryf
3. Haug
   

Ryf. Gomez.

Who you got?

Ryf is better than everyone else and confident enough to take her time reeling in Lucy slowly on the bike. Even if Lucy makes it to T2 first (she won't), Daniela will run her down.

Lots of strong bikers this year will lead to some epic blowups on the run. With Frodo out I'll just pick the second best triathlete walking around planet earth.

Anyone want to update their prediction before they get off the bike? I'm sticking with mine...

Anyone want to update their prediction before they get off the bike? I'm sticking with mine...

Yes, this thread deserves to be bumped and reread from the beginning. Have a bucket of lulz with you while reading it.