There you go thx, I plain mixed numbers... Imagettinold...

What is the weather going to be like?

If there is little wind on the way out, then the men's race will explode over the last 40km when Wurf and co desperately try to shed the runners, while the woman's will detonate on the gradual climb up to Hawi as Ryf will drop those trying to stay with her while she goes after Lucy.

Two important reminders about Ryf, she wasn't in great form last year and she had a pretty bad wardrobe malfunction at the 70.3 champs. She will own the bike course this year. Having Lucy up the road is golden, it gives her focus and a carrot to catch. Perfect for a TT effort, the other girls will cope for the first 60km and then will have to let Ryf go, as otherwise they'll be walking the run.

Personally I'd like it to be really really windy as then the gaps become larger and mistakes are more costly.

I would argue that might not be the case, depending on how you weight Olympic golds, and the pre-Olympic Triathlon era. Contenders for that crown also include: Allen, Frodeno & Alistair Brownlee; the first two have won world (or Oly) titles at all distances, and Brownlee has 2 Olympic Golds plus 4x ITU Worlds....

---

29 years and counting

Check your sources. Alistar has won 2x ITU Worlds. Frodeno first world championship was in 70.3

Sure Javi didn't get gold medal in Olympic games (just a squalid silver)... but among others he is record 5x time ITU world champion. Do you know how ITU worlds work? It's not a one-off race... it's a matter of consistency. Javi is usually recognized so by fellow competitors.

Alistair is the only one at that level (or higher) of performance day in, day out. Frodeno won a gold medal in Beijing as a very dark horse... and never replicated that success. However, imho he has became the strongest long distance triathlete ever.

Just a link about Javi's achievements from an objective international web: https://www.triathlete.com/...an-debut-ever_329840

I predict Lange will win again. I also predict that once he does:

1. Some on Slowtwitch will say he was drafting
2. Macca will say he only won because Jan pulled out
3. In typical millennial fashion, other pros will say that they need to change the Championship venue because they can't win in Kona

Same source as you, but I included the two U23 World titles....as a world title is a world title ;-) Yes, I am vaguely aware of how Triathlon works, but I'm just offering to you as a Gomez fanboy, that there are alternatives out there; Mark Allen is really the guy you're thinking of.

---

29 years and counting

I give LC 5 minutes on the swim max. If you watched 70.3 worlds you must remember how fast Ryf reeled in Charles while riding with a parachute jersey. Charles blew herself to bits to hang on.

Charles swims as fast as the men. Ryf rides as fast as the men.

Sebi & Ryf. Sarah True will podium with Lucy Charles.

Not so sure about that, she still ran 1:20 which is good for her at this time. This could all be gamesmanship, but she said in the Talbot interview that she was comfortable following Ryf and took a lot of confidence in that especially since she didn't even target 70.3 worlds with her training.

This is not about who I'm a fan of or who is the GOAT. I don't intend to discuss that. I've never seen much sense in comparing guys from different generations. Mark Allen, Dave Scott, Alistair, Frodeno, Craig Alexander... all are in the hall of fame.

I'm just saying that this forum shouldn't underestimate the quality and heart of a guy that's so used to win. But hey, you can praise whatever guy that had a good day

Lucy also said that she is too competitive for herself and might end up chasing that swim course record. If she does end up feeling perky and goes and gets, or is close to the swim record, how does that effect the longevity of her race pace? I tend to think not a lot. I think Ryf would spend just as much gas, maybe a little extra, chasing Lucy down over the gap from the swim as what Lucy spends getting the swim course record. She won't have the luxury being pulled around the course but will actually have to get after Lucy a little.

It will be interesting none the less to see the gaps at T1 and T2.

Made my day. Imagined Macca stating it...

After posting that I was thinking back to the video zwift posted about her a few days ago. In the video it can be deducted that Lucy's IM watts are 230. Or at least that's what they want us to think. I made a comment at the time that was incredible at her size.

Well I just went and ran the numbers in best bike split. If she weighs 130 lbs (I have no idea how much she weighs) and pushes 230w at kona she would end up with a bike split of 4:37 even with an CdA of .245. 4:32 with CdA of .23 which she's likely under.

So either there's no way that's her IM watts or she's going to destroy the field. (or this BBS link is garbage). Danelia has never rode faster than 4:50.

https://www.bestbikesplit.com/...-study-kona2018.php?

Macca says, "in the back of his/her mind" a lot. He'll also drop "he/she knows," as if he gets to speak for them.

I do find him interesting, though.

Macca has edges and shows those, likewise Faris who did in different style. Yet those were interesting interviews and statements...

Do you have any idea of cda numbers for the pros with good positions? Iirc Cam posted he had .21. Wonder how that compares to Sebi/Jan/Lionel etc. should be fairly easy to get a rough estimate of Lionel since we often know what wattage he rides at no?
Edit: just checked Tp ad they estimated Lionels at .235 last year in Kona, compared to .25 the year before.

---

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Everyone knows that run was short.

Sanders

Ryf

Ed Baker

Ashley Horner

What happened to Talbot's response that Lange's manager asked for money for an interview?

That's on "The Germans have no love for Lange" thread. Page 2 I think.

Men
1. Gomez
2. Lange
3. Kienle

Women
1. Ryf
2. Carfrae
3. Sali

---

Matt

Men:

1. Kienle
2. Sanders
3. Gomez

Women:

1. Charles
2. Ryf
3. Haug
   

---

if you can read this
YOU'RE DRAFTING!

Men:

1. Kienle
2. Sanders
3. Gomez

Women:

1. Ryf
2. Charles
3. Haug
   

So how‘s the weather gonna be?
Saw a flood warning on google!

I'll say this....

I have the feeling this is going to be an epic race...and the last time I felt this way was about 2 weeks before the Ironwar in 1989.

The caliber of the field is outstanding! Anyone that feels confident about their prediction must know far more than others because there are so many ways this can go.

On a side note, I watched all the "Breakfast with Bob" interviews and what struck me most was how likable everyone is. There is a ton of respect going around and everyone seems to have a really pleasant and fun personality.

Men predictions (really winging it here):

1st - Gomez
2nd - Lange
3rd - Kienle
4th - Sanders

Wurf and Sanders will lead off the bike by 7 minutes.
Gomez and Lange will come off the bike in the second pack.
Wurf will fade first by mile 10.
Sanders run splits will start to noise dive at mile 19.
Gomez and Lange will make the pass into first place at mile 23.
Gomez will separate himself from Lange with 1 mile to go.

I would love to see Lionel Sanders or Brent McMahon take the title as a fellow Canadian, but I am not sure why MacMahon has not been mentioned by anyone - so I suspect they know something I don't. I place him as a dark horse for the win. My concern on Lionel is I don't know if he was being foolish by doing almost the whole course at a fast pace not long before the big show.

---

________________
Adrian in Vancouver