On a somewhat related note indoor crowd size at Montreal Canadiens playoff games got upped to 3500. Let's see what shakes out. It is only 16 June. A lot can happen in roughly 70 days.

Agree a lot can happen, but out of towners need to make decisions now and it's irresponsible for organizers to not be giving them the state of decision making.

Tri Bread wrote:

devashish_paul wrote:

On a somewhat related note indoor crowd size at Montreal Canadiens playoff games got upped to 3500. Let's see what shakes out. It is only 16 June. A lot can happen in roughly 70 days.

3500 but each section can only have 250 people in it, and each section has to have a seperate entrance and bathrooms etc. Seems another way for hockey to get around the rules for everybody else.

Still, I'm hopeful that the full goes off in August or Sept, will be number 12 for me and 4 time at Tremblant. I'd better start swimming.

For whatever reason you're coming across like you want organizers to just cancell it to be responsible to out of towners.

It does not matter how hockey slices and dices 3500 into groups of 250. The precedent is now there for all other types of cultural activities to slice and dice theirs into groups of 250 (not just triathlon). And numbers will be dramatically better by early July on all fronts. This is plenty of time for everyone to get set and go (6 weeks).

Sorry for the doom and gloom crowd, but there is actually a chance now. You can doom and glooom it all we want but there were only 820 CASES IN ALL OF CANADA yesterday (just for American friends reading)

https://www.worldometers.info/...irus/country/canada/


At some point its proven that vaccinations are working in Canada (as if magically they would not work here as they did in the UK, Israel, USA, UAE). 60 percent plus single dosages, the virus it is hitting a wall of resistance and off 70+ percent is on the path to dead


Eventually as these numbers stare Canadian politicians in the face, there won't be a logical reason to limit many things. Least of all outdoors.


We can say that "based on today's reopening plan XYZ will not happen" but you have to wait for the revised reopening plan from July 10th, not June 10th.


IM Tremblant is ONLY going to be a 2000ish person event....that is 8x250 if you want to play that game.

Agree a lot can happen, but out of towners need to make decisions now and it's irresponsible for organizers to not be giving them the state of decision making.

Yeah, there are lots of games that could be played to make things work around re opening frameworks, but everyone is bogged down at today's reopening plan.

That plan will change. As I said, Canada overall is down to 800 cases yesterday nationwide. In a few weeks given all the vaccination this will be sub 500 (and probably lower given trajectory). Quebec new cases were 105...7 day average 158...and that's in the face of plenty of people being "Covidiots" since the reopening (and its still going down).

So, let's see what the reopening plan is in early July! Early July and early June reopening plans are likely very different animmals.

The one thing I'm worried about is the situation in Britain where cases are going up and their government has delayed opening plans even though it appears that death (and maybe hospitalization) rates are not increasing like they did in the previous waves. If the Quebec government only uses case rates, I think the race is in trouble as we will likely see some increase again, due to re-opening, the 10-30% of the population who refuse to get vaccinated, and the rare cases who get 'sick' after one dose. However, if they look at hospitalization rates and death rates, then hopefully the race can go ahead this autumn.

Like you said, in another three weeks we'll have a much better idea.

There should be alot of people getting their second dose soon:

Dupuis confirmed Quebec should receive more than 654,000 Moderna doses next week and nearly 951,000 the week after. The province will also receive more than 546,000 Pfizer doses in each of the next two weeks and an unspecified number of AstraZeneca doses.


edited to add this link:

https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=QC

yes, and they are doing an amazing job of accelerating things. They are moving up a lot of appointments.
But the 12 to 17 year olds will be between Aug 15 and 30th on their return to school. Hard to move this up.
Their August 31target is very achievable.

I think it is easy to get overwhelmed with the guidelines of the day. They won't be static forever, so hold out hope that they will change.


We kind of know that waiting to do everything based on X% of second dosages is a red herring based on 6, 4, 3 weeks ago when hospitals were at capacity.

You will see these guidelines change rapidly simply because risk is declining as 70% plus now have a large amount of immunity from shot number 1 and hospital pressure is decompresing rapidly.

Then reopening guidelines will dramatically changed. They already are. The world does not need for such a high percentage of second dosage to do low risk things outdooors. We already saw that in nations ahead of Canada on dose 1 and then dose 2.

If we are patient and wait we will see new guildelines for reopening as it is all rapidly changing. Take for example the Kentucky Derby in May. That place was packed with maskless people, but with the USA waaay ahead of Canada, this did turn to super spreader. Baseball stadiums are packed in USA. No superspreader. Hockey and basketball arenas packed, no superspeader.

Yes, Canada is a different country, but the virus works the same here. Once cases are at the floor, hospitals are decompressed and politicians and health care folks see successes overseas (and here), the guidelines for reopening will rapidly change. The medical world does not exactly know how effective these vaccines are, so they have pushed politicians with over caution. Now in the real world we are seeing both overseas and here how good they are.

Politicians will feel more comfortable that they are accountable for people's lives going back to normal activities vs protecting deaths that are no longer a concern.

It still may be too little too late for IM Tremblant to happen, but from a public health angle, it will be a dramatically low risk thing by end of Aug.

You can cherry pick, but we're not seeing that in the USA, nor Israel, nor UAE and much of continental Europe. However, you are right politicians may err on side of worrying about 70% single vaccination is not strong enough against Delta variant.

As for backlog of surgeries, this is not a reason to keep society limited. That's another discussion. its a fair discussion, but that is grasping at other reasons for not allowing for events. This has nothing to do with virus propagation. With that logic pro hockey playofffs should not happen due to injuries and potential impact on hospital system

The US ? Wait for it. Let's talk about it in the fall



The health system cannot handle a fourth wave. It's simple.

The fact the Quebec health system is so vulnerable is another discussion. But it is in bad shape.

Double vaccination, with the variant in play right now is the only way to prevent a fourth wave. So until it's done, we will have to make some sacrifices.

You are saying politicians won't waver from the stance of today, I am wagering that things on restrictions will lessen. ....

You are coming off like coming from the debbie doomsday angle (at least the way I read it), I am looking at this based on what data has evolved in other geos where covid19 spread has dropped to the floor and resultant political actions.