The biggest domino that will happen "if" Knibb raced Yoko- 1 of 2 US females will be locked out of the Yoko AQ race- KZ or GJ

The ranking timeline is as follows:

-Start list for the late Feb WC In NZ (Feb 23) occur this Tuesday. Obviously KZ should be on that list since she's 6th American. GJ racing it would likely be smart on her part as she can "hold serve" points wise, but then again is she "all in" now on WTCS only now that she has gotten the points to be 5th American.


So what that timeline means is this. That result has zero bearing on the Abu Dhabi start list. At the current time if all 5 Americans nominate for Abu Dhabi (march 9-10), KZ is out.

The 2nd important race is WC Hong Kong (March 24), 2 weeks after Abu Dhabi. Again the start list will be created prior to the 1st NZ WC, so we'll sorta know the mindset/racing strategy of both GJ and KZ even before the 1st WC race result occurs. I would assume both will want to get on start list as fail safes and obviously that's KZ's only pathway.

Those are the only 3 events that can have an impact with the Yoko start list in addition to the points athletes lose/gain from race results moving from current to previous; which impacts both GJ and KZ.

Yoko start list will be made prior to the Australia WC April 20 so even if KZ or GJ raced that event it would have no bearing on race entry for Yoko.


So the biggest wrinkle that Knibb racing Yoko would add- it would eliminate 1 of KZ or GJ from being able to race. Again I was under the assumption Knibb was *not* going to race Yoko, but with a new coach it may be part of their paris build.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Great summary Brooks, thanks for that. But of course this all assumes the other 3 ladies in the middle pitch up, are healthy and uninjured. It going to be brutal for GJ and KZ if they have to go to all those minor races just to hold their places too. But that is the spot they are in, and seems like they both want it badly too.

One thing I dont know, you probably do, is what are the drop off races on their rankings points wise? Do they have a low score that can be replaced, do they have races that are just going to drop off on time? I would guess so, but that also will calculate into any differences they earn going forward. Same for the middle 3 ladies, imagine they will have to think about doing those early races too..

Hope USAT has some money left in their travel budget, it is certainly going to be stressed early this year... (-;

So are the 3 middle ladies safe, as in do they have to race early to hold their spots? What do they have dropping off and/or what gain can KZ an GJ do to them if they win the early races? Is it really just a 2 horse race between the olympic medal winners at this stage?

Just really gutted for KZ and that last race snafu, that one lapse could have cost her a spot on the olympic team. Now since most likely it will be 2 picks, but if you cannot even get on the start list of the AQ and others do well, gonna be hard to leap frog in the minds of the selectors..

Currently Spivey Rapp and Knibb are so far ahead that they can't really be caught or in danger.
Kasper is closest to being caught but she only loses less than 50 points with points shuffling so she's safe as well and then if she finishes t10 in Abu Dhabi she will improve even more.

So it really comes down to GJ-GS (technically she's ranked ahead of KZ)-KZ

From all accounts I can find "Arena Games" is sorta gonzo for spring 2024, so GS is sorta going to fall out of the picture based on her on road ability (she just got so many big points from Arena Games, it sorta skewed her ranking imo)

Current standings:
GJ leads KZ by 159.70

Points gained/lost from points shuffling current/previous:
GJ will gain 21.45 points over KZ before final Yoko points list (I miscaculiated earlier post + the points will be offsetting at different periods each week due to 1 year window dropping to previous category)


Max points gained from spring '24 races to offset current points total:
KZ - 210.27
GJ- 9th at Abu Dhabi improves her 55.09 (that's the place she can finish to gurantee she stays ahead of KZ) ;10th at Abu Dhabi improves her 24.94 points, 1st at WC improves her 28.12 (but she can only improve 1 race; KZ can improve 2 "low" scores)


What needs to happen if my calculations are correct:
1) If KZ finishes 1st and 2nd at Spring WC's + GJ does not finish 9th or better- she will finish 1 point ahead (if GJ finished 1st at the WC event KZ finished 2nd if they both race WC Hong Kong or NZ she would still finish ahead of GJ) of GJ ahead of the final Yoko start list.

2) IF GJ finishes 9th or better at Abu Dhabi, she will finish ahead of KZ no matter what.


So I ran the numbers again to make sure, 1 freaking point is likely going to allow KZ to finish 2nd at 1 WC and still make it (if she wins other event + GJ finishes 10th or worse). WT uses 2 decimal system for points, etc, it's kinda nuts. Obviously if she wins both she will win by bigger margin.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Good interview with Allen:Road to Paris: Gwen Jorgensen Frequent Flyer

It was a pretty good interview, much better than the ones with Pat for sure. She always seems angry in those, well maybe not angry, but the way we get with our spouses, maybe just tired of talking..

I thought Mark Allen did a wonderful job interviewing her.

It was genuinely nice to see a triathlete interview without talk about watts, bike sponsors, track workouts and all the minutia that goes into training. The 30,000-foot view of how she is dealing with WC points, family life, travel and her change of heart after leaving the sport in 2016 was refreshing.

I don't get all the GJ haters. She's smart, talented and as real as it gets in the Youtube world.

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"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz

I *think* GJ has sorta come full circle. I think in her hayday her social media was full of more "fake" sponsor content *imo*, and I get it. Pro athletes in niche sports have to grind and do sponsor stuff, but I've always thought there was sorta an authentic and inauthentic way of presenting it (it's hard to explain exactly but I think sometimes you just know when it's "fake" and when it's less fake shall we say). I think USAT did her wrong in how they ended the relationship and thus sorta forced her to go all in on the "winning medals in running". Again I think sponsors get a hold of athletes and sometimes there's no one to say "is there a better way to present this". I think that pretty much explains her whole running experience. Now that she's back and she's sorta having to do the back door approach that frankly isn't coming in and winning races. She's having to go back to the basics of what ITU really is- a ton of traveling to a bunch of not so easy race locations. And let's be real, so far it's been both a struggle and also she's not necessarily gotten a ton of sponsors to muddy up the "fakeness" that sometimes can be part of the socials. It's almost allowed for everyone to get a more genuine, grassroots type of approach/feel for her comeback.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I know what she says, but I'm excited to see her get the wild card invite for a PTO race. Where would she come out of the water? Will she be able to hang on the bike? Some of the ITU athletes I feel would crush it, but she's one that I wonder about.

hear hear. in a way i'm surprised she went all-in on the olympics. on the one hand, it's where she had her previous success, the olympics is a hell of a drug, and it's clearly lucrative in the long-term to have a medal. on the other, i've long through that she probably doesn't have the diesel bike power for IM but would be a good fit for PTO100 distance. and man, especially in the early days when the fields weren't quite what they are now but the purses were bigger, she could have made a LOT of money with very little travel. didn't ash gentle make 300k her first year at it?

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Full disclosure- I normally don't watch many videos (did not watch the GJ / Mark Allen interview one), so i sometimes wish they included a cliff notes version (of course someone from peanut gallery would say it's only X mins long just watch it, etc). Is the PTO reaching out to her this year?

I think she would be semi fine on the swim, struggle putting out individual power and then of course have a great run. I've always thought the biggest hurdle for her is motivation/enjoyment of non-draft (particularly the *long* bike rides requirement for non-draft LC), thus why she never has gone to it (or stayed in the sport and transitioned to non-draft by now).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Las Vegas in October, maybe? I really can't see it: it's clear she wants to enjoy what she does: it'd be a long road to preparing to 'crush' a 100km (in particular 2 hours idown on the bars with no wheel to suck; and then run).
But I'm interested in which women you think would "crush" the 100km against Knibb, Gentle, Haug, LCB, Sodaro and the like. We've seen the men dip in but very few women: Duffy, Loevseth, Stimpson, Learmonth, Lopes, Derron, Olmo, Barthelemy. None with any sustained success.

One of the issues with long tenured ITU athletes, what has the "grind" done to their motivation/ability to adapt to new racing do? I remember back in the day Sven Reider (spelling) of SUI talking back in '12 how he was going to stay in ITU until he couldn't (he was already "old" by itu standards in '12) and how he was going to try and race every Olympics (did he even make Rio? I'd have to check). I could see an KZ type come in and race well with her strong S and B ability (and used to be podium level run). Like has being in ITU sorta "fried" their ability to move on and prosper elsewhere vs the likes of athletes who kinda go ITU route for 1 cycle and then move on.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

In my mind my bias was floating more towards the males when I was thinking about ITU athletes, but most of the French or English athletes I think would do better than Gwen at 100k. But maybe I'm wrong there and the bike would play out a lot different for her with the swim being a more diverse group and the front pack swimmers not having the draft pack to pull away with. I'm not saying suddenly Knibb becomes a turkey. I think she'd still beat everyone in the bunch. Haug and Gentle included.

Knibb can no longer sit in the "ITU Athlete" part of the venn diagram.
The 100km race in Ibiza in September between Knibb and Gentle is set to be very interesting (it's possible they may face one another before Easter first). With Las Vegas three weeks later for the rematch (this time with Haug and LCB there).

With KZ not *currently* entered into the NZ WC in Feb, the race between GJ and KZ for the coveted 5th spot and the final "safe" spot with start lists looks to be over. Unless KZ is racing Abu Dhabi as well for someone ahead of her, then this means GJ should be there in Yoko. But it also likely means KZ was informed she would be selected for that event. Knibb not racing is the easiest / most common sense solution and thus all the "key players" can still make Yoko and race for the final 2 (only 1 AQ at this event) spots.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Let's back up a second because I am really confused by all this.

Sereno is on the start list at the Napier World Cup. I know some of her current points are going to roll to pervious and some of her previous cycle is going to roll off completely. But won't she pass Gwen if she gets 2nd or 3rd in Napier. Is the Abu Dhabi race before the start list is set for Yoko?

I also don't get why team USA is playing with fire and not starting a relay in Napier. I am going to need to look into this but I don't think the relay spot - and thus the 2nd US man - it totally locked in.

I mean no disrespect, her "on road" quality of field results have not been great *yet*. I think until she gets the swim figured out, she's going to struggle in WC/ WTCS "quality" fields. So I've not really looked at her as a real "threat" once AG's didn't happen again this spring (I guess it may happen at last min, but I'm guessing it's not)

But to answer your question- yes I think if she podiums in Napier she is going to be an threat to GJ. I just didn't frankly really consider that based on said field at this point and her on road results.

I think the US is safe for the MTR. I think outside of the top 3 teams, there are a bunch of teams ranked 4-10th who are all kinda at a point where it could be their day or not be their day. But I also don't think they are in jeopardy of not making it. They are currently ranked 5th almost 600 points ahead of 10th place (I think there are 11 teams allowed), so they aren't in an real danger unless they DSQ at Abu Dhabi MTR (which is where no doubt they'll have an "A" team).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

GJ: 5 x 1000m, with Patchell highlighting boldness and other psycho stuff: making the right choices, stay connected, use your cues

That’s some quality running when she’s likely in a very heavy S/B block.

Someone mentioned in other thread she was on “wait list” for Cuba, but being an conti cup I think you just roll on when the event is filled (and it doesn’t even have 30 gals entered). Wouldn’t make a ton of sense to race that event.

(She is not on the start list for Cuba as of yet)

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She's normally tight lipped, but I can see why she wanted to let people know what she was doing.

Yes not likely an AQ for the next two ladies to make the team, so now it becomes a PR battle to win the hearts and minds of the selectors. Have to say one thing about her, she is not making it easy at all for those two picks between 3 deserving ladies it appears. Of course most recent race results are going to play huge in that decision, or at least should..

What do you think, 4-7sec faster in each if she wasn't on pavement? And she's at 5000ft elevation right? So that's another 5s?

I find it hard sometimes to extrapolate training splits into what it actually "means" or is equivalent too; or I don't get too caught up in the "conversion" conversation of a workout. I think it's smart to showcase she's running strong, but at the end of the day, your talking about what one of the fastest itu runners in the sport. So it's really strong, but it also is with a big *. And that * is what's her S and B right now. Which that will be answered in what 40 days from now in Abu Dhabi. Everyone know's the score with GJ. She's a fucking bloody awesome runner. But can she put herself in a position for that awesome run to matter. So far at the WTCS level, she's not really been close.

Of course it's sorta hard to show bike power in a training video or you can "hide" the true splits in the swim with Knibb video a few weeks back if it shows "weakness". The only really videos we saw of them swimming side by side, was brief seconds, and I don't think they recapped the actual splits of what each was swimming the 200's in so the nerds like us can "analyze" it.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II