Which is why I’ve said. If GJ is likely a chase pack swimmer (which I think we all think will be) it makes no sense to put her on the team in the current climate of how powerful the front pack women are and think she’s going to race to a medal from chase pack without help.

Like you can’t hope that Knibb misses or think she’s going to miss the front pack and thus that would allow GJ to sorta get pulled along. Even though that happened at test event, the chances of that happen again I would guess is low.

However….however what is Knibb’s swim training now? For years she’s swam with itu groups and now she’s sorta a free agent for herself there in Boulder. She doesn’t have her coach on deck and so she’s going to have to sorta pick and choose the best groups that allow her to join. Case in point- her even doing a video swim w GJ. With OB that never would have happened, very likely. So that’s another important note to pay attention to in the build up to Paris.

Knibb's tactic will be to make the front group and then shred the 12 or so select front group lap by lap anad hope she's given enough of a gap (or makes enough gap) to then hold on for dear life in the final 2km of the run. She's not going to medal coming out of T2 with 8 gals consisting of the likely gals that will should be there.

So Knibb's tactics is going to directly impact GJ and the chase group. So unless you put KZ or Spivey as a domestique for GJ, it's imo sorta an wasted spot if she can't swim front pack and stay in the front group 2km into the bike (after the initial surge that is 100% going to happen). Obviously if GJ AQ's, then she earns the spot, but if Knibb is racing Yoko like has been reported now, imo no shot of her making front group now.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I can also confirm this is a SCM pool as the former girls swim coach of the Monarch Coyotes. Sko Yotes!

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KJ
Swim and Triathlon Coach
AllTerrainEndurance.com
KJ@allterrainendurance.com

Well I never knew exactly what happened to True, I thought it was a cramp? Was she last out of T1 amount the first pack?

Actually I think it was Frintova?

Edit: no it was Cassie?

Mola

He was last of the long group who made the “front” group at T1. 5 mins later and 1 hard hill later he and a few others were shelled off the back and their race for podium was basically over….Imagine if Mola makes it over that hill and makes it through 1 lap. it certainly would have made for a more interesting run than the 2 BB’s arguing over the pace and big bro dropping little bro to win gold going away.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It's called hedging your bets. If a select group (without GJ) rides up the road (and let's say Knibb makes it) then you play the Knibb card. If the race comes back together as it did in the test event for the most part (yes some didn't make it back such as Leonie), then Gwen is the best bet for a podium.

Not to mention, Knibb doesn't really require a domestique the way she races. So I think selecting Gwen alongside her makes sense.

Love your thoughts on this: If Knib did miss the front group out of T1, would she pull a 2nd pack (including Gwen) up to them or make sure to bridge solo-ish taking as few people with her as possible (no need to add more strong runners to the lead pack into T2)?

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ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)

Well a lot like in the test event, Knibb's not necessarily going to be able to dictate who she pulls (or doesn't pull) up to the front group, if she misses the front group. The main issue with "breaking away" and why it's likely easier to break away from a front group even though they are stronger- the smaller a group the more a gap in said group will affect the chasers. So if she breaks away from the other 8, if only 3 make a break, and the 4th wheel is 3 bikes back, suddenly it's down to 3 riders able to help each other. The chase group has an motivated what 20-30 athletes hoping like hell for a chance to make the front group. So suddenly they may be able to "fill the gaps" so to speak and suddenly even if Knibb doesn't want to bring 20 with her, she may end up bringing 20 with her. There is also the front group tactic- It may not be in some of the front group's best interest to get into a game of cat and mouse with Knibb (and chase down every Knibb attack). It may even be helpful that Knibb gets a gap and is doing all the work while the front group keeps said gap maneagable. I don't think Knibb is going to get 1 min on them, but 10-15s at best into T2, maybe. I would guess Knibb is going to need 20-30s in order to stay away on the run.

That's why it will likely be easier for her to get away from the front group and if she didn't make the front group out of the swim, USA tactics *should* go to plan B (race for GJ *if* she. made the event). Now of course Knibb has AQ'd and likely will work her ass off in Yoko to indirectly make GJ's AQ chances even harder. But if Knibb is the only AQ athlete, the chances of her changing tactics at all are almost zilch. She's likely going to be given the freedom to race "her" race (deservedly so, AQ allows that).


Hell the US could use Spivey as a "domestique" in a number of ways. She could be the "disruptor" in the front group that Knibb goes off the front and suddenly Spivey plays the team tactice of "slowing down" the chasers (we've all seen it happen in a group ride, one person pulls through just 0.4 mph slower than the others) and suddenly a slight disruption causes a bit of chaos in the group. And mind you I'm not saying brake check the group in corners or anything "ethically" afoul. I'm talking about just solid teammwork tactics- nothing wrong with sitting in the group and/or not pulling through as fast to not help the group chase an "teammate" down.

And then I guess GJ would be the "backup" plan if the race came together. I just don't see that happening within the women's field in an Olympic race. So again I guess she is the ace in the hole, but to me that's probaly closer to 1-3 1-4 type of chances it works out. I'd give the front group staying away 5-2 chances, that to me is easily the betting favorite. Thus anyone not in the front group is sorta useless imo, but again if that's the ace in the hole if things don't work out like it should, then yeah ok makes sense.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I just love all your tactics; the make for good barstool chit chat. I think a lot of these tactics you describe can absolute be applied retroactively to explain what happened and why -- and you'll find that the same underlying logic you apply in these scenarios can also be applied to other scenarios. But I just doubt that anyone is actually applying this level of tactics to win the race. They are going swim as fast as they need to and can do so within the group they are in. They are going to bike as fast as they can do so within the group dynamics they are in. And they are going to run as fast as they can within the group dynamics they are in. That could be Knibb ridding off the front in the 1st lap, half way through, or not at all. The run they are going to push as hard as they can out of T2 at a pace they can maintain and pray they have extra to kick at the end. There will no doubt be some micro-tactics based on exactly who they are near at certain moments, but there's just no way any of these women are going to let themselves be second fiddle and help out another, etc. They are all going to fight for position wherever they find themselves. Sure at any given moment an athlete can useless surge at full strength and blow up a minute later, but they are all just going to go as fast as they can for the measured distance and push wherever they can to break who is near them.

If you ask them the secret to their success afterwards, they won't talk too many tactics, but likely, swim fast, then bike fast, then run fast. It's always the case.

My tactics are itu 101 tactics lol. Guess what Knibb has to do in order to win a medal- get a gap into T2. Guess what GJ is going to need to win a medal- make it to T2 in the front group. Everyone at the WTCS level knows exactly what every other athlete/team is basically going to do and/or need in order to win. So while you think it's just show up and do your best- that's of course the stupid simplicist measure.


So please tell me if Knibb makes the front group, who from the chase group is going to pull the chase group to the front group? Guess what every coach and athlete knows who is "strong" and who isn't, etc.


Race tactics are generally pretty easy *for the most part* to tell- you need race roster and course profile. You get those 2 and you can prety much dictate to probaly 90% accuracy what is going to happen. You may not be able to name the podium 100% accuracy, but the tactics of the race are generally fairly easy to forecast if you know or follow the sport.


And btw those athletes will have dozen of scenarios with race forecastiong and going over what happens when X happens or what happens when Y happens. These coaches and athletes go to great detail to be prepared mentally and physically for the demands of competition. It's certainly not "well let's just show up and race hard and see what happens". So I'll have to disagree with your assessment again.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Who? Flat tires, crashes, dropped goggles and so on. It all happens. Everyone can come up with 50 different tactical scenarios before a race. All with some plausibility. The one that ends up playing out, everyone will nod there heads and say, yep that's how it was going to be.

Knibb of course will want to swim as fast as she can, have smooth fast transitions and push the bike as fast as she can and so on.

I imagine Alex Yee entered the WTCS final with a few tactical scenarios....

Focus on executing the process as best as you can without letting yourself strategize the big picture in the middle of the thing. Save the tactical breakdowns for people dissecting the who can say why it was always going to be that way.

Focus on executing the process as best as you can without letting yourself strategize the big picture in the middle of the thing. Save the tactical breakdowns for people dissecting the who can say why it was always going to be that way.

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So why not do both? Have the tactical breakdowns squared away for the most part before hand (which athletes and coaches most certainly do at that level), and then be ready to adapt on the fly. That's pretty much what it comes down too. So yeah not really sure what your disagreeing with.

Only so many "tactics" can actually be executed by the mere fact of draft legal and more importantly an "meh" bike course profile. Which is why imo the women's race will come down to which swim group Knibb comes out of T1 with. If it's the front group, the race will almost assuredly come down to the 10-12 who make that group. So back to the 1st 3mins of the bike being super important in Paris. I think that'll be critical for anyone who is on the "hanging on for dear life" part of that race. IE- GJ *if* she made front group swim (which I think is probaly less likely to happen than chase pack swim (also looking at a Summer Rapp type of athlete)

So we'll agree to disagree that GJ can "just as likely' make the chase group but get pulled up to the front. IMO that will only happen if Knibb didn't make the front group. Knibb's front pack swim ability is what 85-90% in her WTCS career? (She has missed the front group in key races- Tokyo + Paris test event, so there is that stat)

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Although I guess all this goes out the window when we watch a duathlon occur....

(It should be in pink....but should it WT? lol but no really it's going to be a tri right?? Is it a $1B with a B river clean up happening from reports??)

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

So why not do both? Have the tactical breakdowns squared away for the most part before hand (which athletes and coaches most certainly do at that level), and then be ready to adapt on the fly. That's pretty much what it comes down too. So yeah not really sure what your disagreeing with. ///

I totally agree with you that tactics have to be thought out in advance, and strategies for the different ways they play out need to be practiced and ready to implement. To think you just go out there and swim, bike, and run your hardest and let the chips fall, well those are people that really never got the nuance of the Killer B's, or some one like Vincent Luis.


But I'm going to throw something out there now that I have not seen discussed, and basically glossed over. I would bet that Taylor Knibb is working on a new strategy, one where she runs herself to the podium. You all seem to just gloss over her run abilities as if they are static and stuck where they were a year ago. She is battling with the likes of Gentle and others on the run in the 100k races, and if you back out her mini vacation in T2 she had in the test event, she ran one of the fastest runs and just seconds behind the best runner in the sport. She ran herself onto the US team that day, and from what I saw, made a huge leap in her 10k speed.


And lets not forget she is 25 and still on a steeper improvement curve that others many years older. I dont think she is going to do stupid stuff anymore, like missing the lead swim group, pulling and attacking from the front, etc. I think she will have a plan to solidify a top swim break on the bike, perhaps 7 to 10 ladies. Then wittle them down to a manageable group of 5 or 6, and use her bike power to take some of the run out of the group. That could come in many forms, attaching and forcing chases, going first into turns and accelerating to open micro gaps, etc. Of course the possibility of getting away with one or two others is there, but that is a lot harder said than done. Like the time she went off the front with her teammate who she trains with, but with someone that can actually take a pull and give her a break. Like a Duffy type racer, that could work, but at the very least make a hard chase from the others...


I'm going to make the call right now, Knibb is going to be a runner to contend with come the games, and all this glossing over her on the run will work to that advantage. Perhaps if she would have exited T2 in the front of that test event group and ran in right behind Potter it would be more evident, but coming from the very back well down from the front and negative splitting past a whole bunch of top running ladies, well just was not that noticeable except for those of us who watch that stuff closely.

Plus she was coming off a foot surgery at the start of last year, so hopefully you are right Monty.

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Let food be thy medicine...

anyone who was paying attention to the test event already knows this. she had the 3rd fastest run and was within 5 seconds of beaugrand. look at the top 5 run splits:

potter: 32:57
beaugrand: 33:07
lindemann: 33:18
lombardi: 33:18
knibb: 33:12

the 8 seconds she lost in t2 cost her the podium.

So I'll agree with a lot of what you say, and I'm putting Knibb in T5 finish. I just don't think this course profile is a strength of hers and I dont think she's going to get the run to out run the likes of the women that are *usually* there at the front out of T2. But by default if I think she's T5 type of finish, 1 or 2 thing changes on race day and sudddenly she can do it. If your telling me this is Rio course, I would 100% put her as the favorite. So to me race roster and course profile matters a ton in how I think tactics can play out to improve your chances in a race. But I think by default she's going to be a huge player in how the race unfolds (IE- keeping the chase pack from catching) and likely there in the end. I just put her chances more in the 4-6th place finish than podium. But again that's very minor differences so she's got a very good chance.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Off topic but reviewed this high quality Knibb/Allen imm post Paris video:

No help to Jorgensen who, if starting, will be 90 seconds back at T2 (at least).
Assuming no USA athletes AQ (which I suggest is odds on) USAT will want a reliable MTR W2.
Think you have to put Knibb on Leg 4 for the chance of a podium so who for Leg 2? Spivey is THE most assured choice: she will be in the pack at T1, stay there (at least) to T2 and lose few seconds on the run to hand over to Pearson.
Would you risk Jorgensen on Leg 2? Or put Knibb there and 'Hail Mary' GJ on Leg 4?

USA’s relay line-up (actually, all the relay line-ups) is something I’m really interested in looking forward to Paris. Whether Knibb/other is leg 4, chances are they’re going to have a deficit to France/GB/Germany. If Knibb goes leg 2, she has a chance of time trialling them right back to the front after whatever has been lost on leg 1 (unless leg 1 is Pearson), but unless Pearson is leg 3, the second female is going to have to chase again.
If we assume France has Beaugrand on leg 4, Gwen would lose more time in the swim, potentially not lose/gain any on the bike, but then have to run down one of the best runners in the sport.

Assuming no USA athletes AQ (which I suggest is odds on) USAT

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This to me is where I find it most fascinating that now Knibb is racing Yoko- US’s final AQ race this spring. Assuming Knibb, Spivey, Rapp, Kk and GJ are there- this is MAJOR advantage to the front group in a race we all thought would suddenly be “everyone in T2 together” without some major fire power.

IE- GJ is going to have a major hard time overcoming that deficit in T2 if she’s not there in the swim. If she makes the front group and holds wheels then it’ll be game on. But if she doesn’t and finishes say 4th on the team that day it’s going to be really really hard imo to pick her for the team.

So I’m more fascinated that suddenly Knibb racing Yoko is going to put her and Rapp on the defense the most, but Rapp will almost certainly be front pack swim. So would USAT have the “fortitude” to go Knibb-Spivey-GJ (to “hedge their bet” as others put it) if GJ showcases no front pack ability into T2 prior to going racing Paris at Wtcs level?

Hell a bigger point- with Knibb scheduled to race Yoko if GJ misses it due to federation limitations if KZ ranks higher before Yoko, is she then basically out by default? Imagine the discussion points if she misses Yoko and then is picked for the team. Knibb racing Yoko has thrown all kinda of wrenches into the “all key players last chance race”. Someone whether KZ or GJ Will be “left out” of the final AQ (doesn’t automatically mean you cant make team though)

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

i think part of the selection also boils down to how you feel about gambling. america's got some girls who are a lock for, say, a top-10 or top-15 finish. but at the olympics top-3 is sort of all that matters. meanwhile gwen, depending on the race dynamics, could finish on the podium, or 20th. do you roll those dice or not?

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

So that's what is so interesting. Let's play this scenario out.

Knibb races Yoko, breaks away from the front group- causes the front group to use her as a "carrot" and keeps the GJ chase pack 40s back into T2. She does her GJ run, "running through the field" and finishes 4th (no AQ).

Do you gamble that she just showcased what her run can do, or do you say "it's a waste" since she didn't make the front group?

Again having the revelation that Knibb will now race Yoko has imo completely changed the trajectory of what we think will happen in that race. It imo is truly going to put a TON of pressure on GJ's bike now. Prior to that, I thought the "weak" field would likely be advantage GJ to making it to T2 closer. Again weaker field because many federations are using the Caglari WTCS event as their AQ what 2 weeks later. Now that Knibb is predicted to race it, I think it will make her bike a potential "issue" again.

Obviously if GJ makes the front group in Yoko- it's a no brainer she will make the team.


Now mind you I think there are only 1 real medal athletes- Knibb and the US needs to fill 3 slots. I do not think GJ in a full field WTCS event will make it to T2 in the front group and thus her unleashing her "running through the field" run that she has famously done this fall kinda irrelevant. HOWEVER if your saying pick her because no one else has a chance either (besides Knibb)....ok I can kinda agree, with the caveat- it's not realistic if she can't get to front group by T2. I do not think a GJ "hedge your bets" strategy can work in current women's ITU triathlon- unless she makes the front group. So if she showcases that ability- duh pick her.
If she doesn't go all in on Knibb and pick 2 already front pack athletes to domestique for her.

So here's what I would do- I would get Spivey or KK as a front pack domestique for Knibb. If you want to give GJ the 3rd spot, cool. If you want to give 2 domestiques for Knibb and put Knibb/Spivey in MTR, I'd have no problem with that stragety either. Again put 2 Americans in the front group to play "disruptive" tactics (again ethical / fair play tactics- not brake checking into corners type of "tactics"), that's likely your best tactic that USAT could play. I do not think a GJ "hedge your bets" strategy can work in current women's ITU triathlon- unless she makes the front group. So if she showcases that ability- duh pick her.
If she doesn't go all in on Knibb and pick 2 already front pack athletes to domestique for her.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

is maya kingma racing? she and knibb worked yoko together beautifully a few years back, if i remember right. (kingma at the time actually seemed to me like the better cyclist of the two.)

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

USA’s relay line-up (actually, all the relay line-ups) is something I’m really interested in looking forward to Paris. Whether Knibb/other is leg 4, chances are they’re going to have a deficit to France/GB/Germany. If Knibb goes leg 2, she has a chance of time trialling them right back to the front after whatever has been lost on leg 1 (unless leg 1 is Pearson), but unless Pearson is leg 3, the second female is going to have to chase again. //

I said this a long time ago, Knibb has to be your last athlete in the relay. Spivey has already shown she can close gaps that the men open and she is just the best solo racer in that format, barring Knibb. Both of those ladies thrive on catching up, and they both have the tactical ability to ride and race in a small group. Knibb has the most potential catch up because of her bike, but she is also one of the best solo swimmers like Spivey.


So you really want your best runner at the end, and the person that could possible make a small break on the bike, hands down Knibb. Katie wouldn't be horrible in Spiveys spot, she has many of the same strengths, just that I think Spivey is just a better solo racer. And you have to figure out whoever our men are, we will be behind on both legs, and if not, that is just a bonus. But going in you need to have that mindset when picking and setting up that team..


And Knibb doing Yoko is definitely a game changer, well at least could be. Rapp, Spivey, and KZ if she gets a start will all have a great chance to make the lead break on the bike. Gwen would have a harder time of course, but perhaps she will surprise with her swim. Bust as Brooks likes to point out, the first 3 minutes of bike power is going to be as important as the swim was, and we will see top swimmers losing there race right there.


I forget her name, but I wonder if that tiny little uber swimmer will be at the race? I think she actually held on for a big win late in the year, but she certainly makes the swim a legit breakaway possibility, and stretching out the top 15 or so in a snake line will help that bike group to get away. Do we know if the French ladies team is showing up yet?

So the 6 months prior to Olympics is always interesting to see who has to race, who wants to race, who needs to race. Obviously with Yoko and Caglari being AQ for many top athletes still out there to make teams, there are going to be some talent, but I would guess Kingma is secure in making the team (especially if NED has MTR team; I think they are IN as of now?, but she's still easily ranked high enough to make Olympic start list). Of course finishing 5th/6th at that venue the past 2 years- it would likely be a no brainer for her to go there, get a pay check and get some confidence.

Knibb racing Yoko is more of a wanting to race it more than anything (if coach/her think its good idea, she will). It's sorta an solo single weekend out of the way place for most athletes so you generally really have to need to race it in order to justify it if you are Knibb imo. Again if she wants to race it, she is going to, USAT isn't going to scrub her from start list. From what I had heard from her own interviews, now that she had AQ'd, the need to race it is no longer there and thus the "long travel" is unneccessary. So as I said a week ago no one had assumed she was racing it. What was it again that confirmed she was *planning" to race? (A podcast with her?)

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II