You do know that she has to do that, right? She is the 8th ranked American athlete and has to race to get points so she can move into the top 5 and not travel all over the world on the wait list and hope someone scratches their start. If anything that was detrimental to her earlier in the year, but maybe necessary. Yet it took away racing experience that she needed.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Her swim has def showcased she's gotten her endurance for it, she's just lacking the top end speed. She lost all her time on the swim in the 1st lap, so maybe she can get on faster feet when a fuller field "fills the gaps". She also has a huge benefit- the rest of the US women are well let's just saying continuing to open the door for her. And I dont mean EA and GS's points or lack of. I'm talking about Spivey / Rapp / Kasper who are showcasing more and more that they just don't have podium ability in truly world class fields. Which then sorta allows the "wildcards" to continue to enter the discussion- see GJ and KZ.

This final race can't get her fast enough for her, but she also needs as much "rest" to overcome this last week of fatigue. However her travel schedule + race schedule over the last month, it's bound to catch up to her and it wouldn't shock me at all if she fails to make the front group and they put a gap to her that she can't overcome and suddenly she's only 5th (as if that's some huge failure, and it's only a failure in terms of what she needs to accomplish). The signs of this long season are for sure showing, it's just a matter if she can get through 1 more race.

I would advise to stay in Japan and/or fly directly to Chile now. A few day stop at home would likely be a bad idea (even if it's a smart "mom" decision to go home 1st).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

All great points. But...

Mom holding kids increases super power beyond any losses from travel.

You were 100% correct when ui said she shouldn’t have raced the GF. Of course the way the race was unfolding it seemed to good an opportunity to pass up. And let’s face it, “you’re not quite ready,” doesn’t exist in a world
class athlete’s lexicon.

Doing well in Chile under these circumstances would be difficult for a 27 year old athlete. I’ll wont be surprised if - like you said - she gets dropped.

I’ll look into the rankings tomorrow and try and figure out how the rankings will play out based on finishing places. I’m nearly certain that EA and GS are going to be 7/8 regardless of results, though.

She's flying home.

HA, Betto's super mom powers forget the memo that it was a 10k run instead of 5k this weekend, or maybe her powers transferred over to GJ to help beat Lehair the final 2km of the run and get 2nd.

@AJT- Another angle to all of this, and this is for basically KZ and GJ. When you are on this type of "comeback", you basically have zero margin of error. The stress of calculating points and realizing you have to book flights until the middle of Nov when every other pro is on their "off season", like fuck.....that's just full on. And then the kicker of it is, GJ and KZ basically have to win all these races, to think a 4th or 5th at a WC is "failure" is just nuts. Like 1 more bad result and your going back to the wait list lifestyle. And again when 2nd is the line in the sand basically........that's beyond stupid razor thin margin of error. F'ing crazy.


@Uncle Phil- *IF* I have her travel correct: Since late Aug: US-Europe (KV WC + GF)- US - Far East (2 WC's)- US (home for a ~week)- S America. That's one hell of a travel itenarariy, and again to only have 1 "bad" result in all of that. It imo would be more shocking if she podiums next weekend than if she doesnt; and I've been on the record since the summer saying she would beast mode every WC she enters (which she has). This might be the 1 "race too far" (but she has too, so it doesn't matter she's gotta show up and get top 2; assuming KZ wins; if KZ sucks then GJ and obviously do slightly worse, but still not by much).

Hell the trip to Chile WC is ~13 hours of flying + 75 min drive to the smaller town from the closest international airport. It's full on some of these non WTCS race locations. I

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

But Gwen does? Come on. You know better than that.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

But that wasn't my point. Spivey / Rapp / Kasper's "poor" results have allowed KZ and GJ to continue to stay in the discussion.

I can gurantee KZ and GJ would not be racing a WC in Chile South America in the middle of Nov if the team was already decided (the team could have already been filled by USAT's process already even with 3 spots). Because the door is 100% open right now, it's allowing others to have a chance. So it's not even actually if GJ can actually get on the podium (I'll put my name to it- even next spring she can't/wont); it's no one else can either (I'll also put my name on that too).

The trouble with wildcards is that the longer you keep them in the game, the more pressure then goes onto the favorites and then suddenly they are "upset" (or in this case, don't get picked for the Olympic team). The quicker you squash an inferior athlete, the quicker they go away. Unfortunately no one in the US has done that to the less deserving athletes; they continue to keep opening the door for others to take "their" spot.


I'll say this- IMO if KZ and GJ are in the final AQ race (healthy and racing), 1 of those will eventually be picked to make the team. Rapp imo is alot like McElroy, they have to AQ to make the team, they aren't going to be discretion pick. Spivey likely still is odds on favorite, but it still means 1 spot will be picked among KZ, GJ, Kasper, Rapp.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I'll try to re-phrase the US selection from the point of view of competing countries. If I'm involved in another country HP program (which I kind of am/was) I'm kind of low key happy if the USA don't select Gwen to be honest, and the selection ends up being Spivey and KZ (from an individual race point of view, not talking about the Mixed Team Relay).

I'm kind of low key happy if the USA don't select Gwen to be honest, and the selection ends up being Spivey and KZ (from an individual race point of view, not talking about the Mixed Team Relay). //

This is exactly how I see and feel about the situation at the moment too. At this moment I go with Knibb and Spivey for the relay, and only if something really bad happens to either, then you can sub in Katie without losing too much. I know Gwen thinks she belongs on that relay, but she has way too many liabilities for a race like that, along the same lines as Summer. nd you are also right in that on a very big day with all stars aligning, Katie and Spivey could do quite well in the overall. Some sort of special break on the bike(which includes Knibb) where they can get some time into T2. Gwen doesnt have that potential, likely spending the entire race chasing in the 2nd or 3rd groups.


But she has done all she can do at the moment, and it is now a 1up race with Katie to get starts next season. She can make it super hard for her to be selected if she cannot race with the big girls anymore..But I do think it will be KZ or GJ for that last pick, unless Kasper or Summer pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat in the last auto race..

Those groups would have to be formed on the swim though, looking at the Paris bike course?

I’d think that the nature of the bike course was something that really upped Jorgensen’s chances for a pick. (Much as I would like to see Spivey and Zaferes race that race).

It also may be time to think about a duathlon as a scenario to be reckoned with.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Next years race will be similar but strong in my opinion. There were some key swim/bikers who were absent who will significantly improve the chances of the lead group staying away. Duffy, GTB et al.

Spivey has had a rough year with a foot injury, why she did the Super League last race rather than start rehab 3 weeks earlier is beyond me. Same for Rappaport, she has had a recurring back problem since early season.

Totally agree that they will need to AQ if they want to go. If KZ and GJ continue to improve on the trajectory they have shown I would discretion pick them both. They bring much more to the relay than the others.

I guess you can't get any closer in rankings for the race for the 5th spot.

World Triathlon Ranking:
(top 4 US Women mathematically safe through the 1st WTCS even of '24)

34. KZ 2399.68
35. GJ 2378.63
36. EA 2377.69
37. GS 2351.84


WC 375 point max

1st. 375
2nd. 346.88
3rd. 320.86
4th. 296.74
5th. 273.54

GJ will gain 21.45 points on KZ in early spring when their 1st races transition into the previous ledger (points are worth 1/3 of current score). So I guess the next points chase will be in the Arena Games for 500 points in the winter. GS won a bunch of points in that pathway. Odd thing about Arena Games, I don't really know how you get on start lists, I think many give it a hard pass, and it's seemed like in the past it's kinda been open to anyone. With now 500 points on the line, I imagine some athletes may end up doing it. There are a max of 2 federation athletes, max of 20 athletes on regular season and 30 for the final. WT ranking is used for start list + "invitations" (IE- how LS raced last year in Canada), and invitations can extend the federation max limit.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If KZ and GJ continue to improve on the trajectory they have shown I would discretion pick them both. They bring much more to the relay than the others. //

Not sure what races you have been watching, but Spivey is head and shoulders above both these ladies as far as the relay is concerned, not even close really. Perhaps you are projecting out her injury into the future, but she just raced on it(with virtually no run training) and did pretty well regardless. So looks like whatever it was, she has it managed and will be fine for next season. Katie would be next in line, but she is not swimming near where she used to, and her bike power seems to have dropped off too. Taylor has good power, but really has the handling skills for a relay chase, which is probable give our men who will be on that team. Same for Knibb, great chaser and even breakaway potential in the last position, and runs well enough to make something out of a 5 second bike gap..

It looks to me like Cagliari race at the end of May will be the last event in the Olympic scoring cycle? I didn't realize that until now.

Yoko is planned for 5/11 next year. Both KZ and GJ have races that will roll into "previous period" points on Monday 4/22/24. Do you know: when is the start list priority determined? If those points roll into the start list determination, I don't see how it doesn't come down to Gwen v Katy for the 5th and 6th spot.

Ackerland is in a bad spot. For current cycle she's going to net a lose two races at 695 points, replace them with 342 points for a net loss of 353 and then her previous cycle score is going to go up 152 points. She's losing 200 points and will be down to 2177. She's racing Pan Ams. Not sure why she doesn't stick around for a week and race in Chile too.

GS still has some points she can pick up. If she top 5s in Chile she stays in the conversation.

The arena games people really did know what they were doing when they got the points of these events tied to the rankings. Hmm, if GS backdoored into blocking KZ or GJ by winning an arena games... hm....

Officially I can't remember if Yoko has been announced as the final AQ for US or if it will be Cagliari. Assume it's Yoko (it's been that since Rio), the start list will be published before the 4/22 races roll off and thus they won't be able to use those scores in previous period (they will however be able to use the Feb and March races they did this past year; GJ gains a net of 21.45 points over KZ). But it would factor into Cagliari as the following day (Tuesday 4/23) would be the day the Cagliari start list is produced.

Start list is 30 days out + the preceeding Tuesday....That Friday (3 days later) is when subs have to be announced, then after that it goes to the Wait List.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

As you know, it makes almost no difference between Gwen and KZ if the 4/15/23 points get tacked on. (6 to Kzs favor). But I’d say those points will all but lock the other two out.

So if KZ and GJ race and do well in Chile; does this put them on the start line next year at WTCS Races or do they still mill about hoping to get on the start line? Maybe not the popular opinion but I still like the idea of KZ and GJ going to Paris with Taylor Knibb next summer due to their grit and experience.

Will let someone more knowledgeable like Brooks chime in but I believe national federations still have some say & are limited to 5 slots for most races (sometimes another spot can free up?). They're not going to pass Kasper so the 4 bunched up will be 5th/6th/7th/8th, not separated by a ton of points. If they're 5 & 6, it should be easier to get a spot on the start line but all of those athletes still have a similar claim.

WTCS races limit federations to 5 entries per event. There's a chance you can get additional spots after the start list has been produced if at any moment the start list drops below a certain threshold (55). That's how GJ and GS were able to roll onto the GF this past month. I believe the US had 7 athletes.

Top 5 ranked athletes in each federation pretty much are 99.9% guranteed to race. It's not 100% because federations have the power to sub athletes in/out and/or basically withdraw athletes at their own discretion (they don't have to justify said decision). FRA men did that at the 2022 GF to pull their 4th ranked athlete but he was a chase pack athlete, and they just pulled him out of race.

So being top 5 means you are basically secure to make starts. Being 6th means your in a really good spot because Knibb may sit out races nce she's already AQ'd. GJ's husband Pat, is Knibb's sport's agent, so theoretically they'll kinda know behind the scenes what Knibb likely will be racing before it's known publicly. But in theory the 6th place athlete (or 7th or 8th placed athlete) won't know if they made the start list until the start list is published publicly.


GJ's and KZ's big issue is that they basically may still be forced to race Arena Games this winter because GS may likely race Arena Games (she finished 2nd in world last year). Which in terms of GJ- will be determintal to her development as this off season is going to be critical to getting her S and B power stronger. The issue isn't necessarily the race; it's the travel disruption that adds 2-3 key days of disruption, vs just training through the winter.



And again since atleast the London Olympics qualification (when they went away from the "US Trials" process), where the US has used WTCS events to decide the team.....The US decision makers have never pulled rank and put athletes in over higher ranked athletes for AQ events. Now the chances of KZ and GJ being 5th / 6th are much stronger now than ever before. But if something were to happen where the 7th ranked athlete is suddenly "locked out" of races, the federation has not put said athlete in someone else's spot....Again USAT has that ability to pull rank if they want/need to; they just haven't. But also noted, for every AQ in the past, every athlete in the "discussion" has pretty much always been in the races and raced for the spots; So they've never really had to pull rank either.

Would they if something happens where GJ is 7th ranked or KZ is 7th ranked, and needs to sub them in? IDK; I get the feeling that they only want to pull rank once it goes to discretion; not before. And it should be noted, racing the AQ events is not a requirement to being a discretion pick. It's very very strongly helpful and is part of the "merit discussion" within the policy decision making; but it's not a requirement. So if GJ misses the last AQ race and spots go to discretion- she would still be eligible.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It will be particularly problematic because no front line athlete is going to race arena games the year of the Olympics. I cannot imagine someone actually getting blocked from a start line over an arena games result.

Question: USA swimming hosts elite camps regularly. A lot of swimmers say that “team USA” is built at these camps and that it is a big part of why the swim teams always do well at the Olympics. Does USA tri do anything like that?

The crazy part about the Arena Games angle. It's 3 events to get 1 500 point max score over 2 month timeline of racing. So you can race 1 of 2 regular season races (or both I guess if you had a shit score to improve odds) and then the final is basically double points (scoring = 1 regular season best score + "final" that's worth double). If they use a similar schedule as this past year: I actually think it’s stupid AF that they add AG’s to your points ledger with the “issues” that can still occur. If they want to name an 1 off world tire great but to give it same points to “real” WT events. It just seems hokey.

-Late Feb
-Middle of March (after Abu Dhabi)
-Early April (before Yoko start list will be produced)


The top 3 US Female athletes are pretty much so far ahead, they should be fine through Abu Dhabi. However Kasper will def have to factor in Arena Games because her score is going to drop at end of Nov to dangerously close to being over passed....unless she just goes all in on a top 5 type of WTCS Abu Dhabi performance. Abu Dhabi start list won't be affected by Arena Games only Yoko + Cagliari start list.

There is also a factor of, will athletes race AG just to keep others from the chance to race for the points? Kasper could do that to limit only 1 between GJ or KZ; and/or KZ+GJ (if no Kasper) could race it to keep GS from the start line.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

The crazy part about the Arena Games angle. It's 3 events to get 1 500 point max score over 2 month timeline of racing//

But the really crazy part is that the arena games are probably the best indicator of who should get those discretional spot(s). What we are really talking about is the MTR picks, no one is seriously thinking there is a medal in the group left in the individual. What better way to showcase than a full on time trial that is just about the exact distance of the MTR course. And it also showcases fast transitions too, something else that really needs to factor in.


So the other normal races are nice, but the AG is where I would be looking hard for my MTR athlete. I'm still of the strong mind that Spivey should be that 2nd person on that relay with Knibb, she has already proven over and over that she is the best when it comes to that format. Doing the actual relays, and super league. She also has a better than average shot of doing well in the individual, at the very least could be a big help to others on the team if need be...


As a fan, I hope that all the 4th to 7th pitch up at the games, that head to head time trialing would be great fun to watch...

Not when you can still have the technical malfunctions that they still can have and did have last year.

Or when you can game it by deciding whether to apply pack tactics on or off.

That’s Hokey Pokey as fuck. Again want to have it as a 1 off world championship Esport- go for it. They are fantastic for what is is, an E Sport, add that to the next Olympics under its own designation. Don’t muddy the standings by adding it to WT simply to try and draw more interest. It has too much “gimmicky” for it to ever be anything more than an E Sport destination world title.

To think it’s a decider for an outdoor sport, hell fucking no. Too many issues still.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Uhm, sorry? Are you serious when you suggest that someone will catch a group in real life because they nailed the trainer spin on Zwift, and got their shoes on while on a stationary bike without crashing into a barrier? And had no trouble putting their helmet in the box?

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden