From what I've seen in the quest for kona videos, most of the athletes there haven't been training nearly long enough. Many of them discovered triathlon mid-life then maybe have been training consistently for 2-3 years with the last year focusing on kona doing 15-20hrs a week. Then get disappointed that they don't make it even though they've given their best the last 6 month. Next year they'll either give up the goal since they weren't even close during their attempt or dial back on their effort significantly.

Unfortunately, that's not enough time for most people with average talent, they would likely need 3-6 years of that kind of training volume and consistency. Those athletes (with mediocre genetics) that don't give up and maintain the consistency, who truly loves the training and lifestyle even if they get no recognition, have no regards to the compliments and fame of making to kona, are the ones that tend to actually qualify.

Think it's more the case that most people don't get anywhere near their genetic limiters in terms of fitness. Life and personality get in the way. Before you get somewhere close to your optimal fitness you need :
1) The commitment/selfishness to want to do it in the first place. Not many people are prepared to commit to being as good as they can be at something, or to make all the sacrifices necessary to achieve that goal.
2) The resources (time and money) to make it happen. 15+ hours/week to train, plus the time needed to recover properly. Then the money for decent equipment, pool membership, race and travel costs, maybe coaching. And of course for many of us there is a direct or opportunity cost associated with the career decisions involved in freeing up the time needed to train and recover properly
3) Smart decision making - choosing the right coach, equipment, training plan. Knowing when to change the plan.
4) The discipline needed to eat right, execute the training plan, do your stretching, go to bed early, etc day in, day out for months or years.
People under estimate these because theoretically they're all life choices not physical limitations. But changing who you are and how you live isn't that much easier than changing the genes you were born with. If it was there would be a lot less obesity, credit card debt, alcoholism, etc. A coach can help with 3 and 4, but even then you need the money and self-awareness to hire a coach in the first place, you need the smarts or luck to get the right coach, and you need the discipline to actually listen to what they're telling you and do it.
Heck, I've been training and racing in various sports for 25+ years and I don't think I've ever even met the first criteria! Have never gone all in on being the best I can at sport, it's always been balanced along other priorities, whether that's family, career or just enjoying life and going on holiday, staying up late and having a few too many drinks with friends, etc. I'm pretty sure I have the physical potential to KQ if I really wanted to, but I'm 100% sure that I'm not prepared to do all the things required to find out.

[Let's just break down a KQ time for your hypothetical under-40 tri guy. This guy will need to go at least 9:30 or better on your "average" IM course. So, if Average Guy really works hard on his swim, he could potentially swim 1:00 (1:25/100 yd with no walls to push off) for his 2.4 mi swim. Allowing 5 min total for both T1 and T2, that leaves 8:25 for the B and R total. If he can ride 23 mph for the 112 mi, that's 4:52 for the bike, which leaves 3:33 (8:08/mi) for the run. Or, he could bike 22 mph for 5:05 and run 3:20 (7:38/mi), or ride 21 mph for 5:20 and run 3:05 (7:04/mi). Obv there are a large number of combinations but you get the idea. I will leave to each STer to decide whether "anyone" who completely dedicates their life to triathlon can achieve those numbers. IMO, you need a little bit of "talent" to achieve any of these combinations. I don't think just "anyone" can achieve those numbers even if they don't work at any job other than triathlon and dedicate their entire life to KQing.

Think it's more the case that most people don't get anywhere near their genetic limiters in terms of fitness. Life and personality get in the way. Before you get somewhere close to your optimal fitness you need :
1) The commitment/selfishness to want to do it in the first place. Not many people are prepared to commit to being as good as they can be at something, or to make all the sacrifices necessary to achieve that goal.
2) The resources (time and money) to make it happen. 15+ hours/week to train, plus the time needed to recover properly. Then the money for decent equipment, pool membership, race and travel costs, maybe coaching. And of course for many of us there is a direct or opportunity cost associated with the career decisions involved in freeing up the time needed to train and recover properly
3) Smart decision making - choosing the right coach, equipment, training plan. Knowing when to change the plan.
4) The discipline needed to eat right, execute the training plan, do your stretching, go to bed early, etc day in, day out for months or years.

Think it's more the case that most people don't get anywhere near their genetic limiters in terms of fitness. Life and personality get in the way. Before you get somewhere close to your optimal fitness you need :
1) The commitment/selfishness to want to do it in the first place. Not many people are prepared to commit to being as good as they can be at something, or to make all the sacrifices necessary to achieve that goal.
2) The resources (time and money) to make it happen. 15+ hours/week to train, plus the time needed to recover properly. Then the money for decent equipment, pool membership, race and travel costs, maybe coaching. And of course for many of us there is a direct or opportunity cost associated with the career decisions involved in freeing up the time needed to train and recover properly
3) Smart decision making - choosing the right coach, equipment, training plan. Knowing when to change the plan.
4) The discipline needed to eat right, execute the training plan, do your stretching, go to bed early, etc day in, day out for months or years.

People under estimate these because theoretically they're all life choices not physical limitations. But changing who you are and how you live isn't that much easier than changing the genes you were born with. If it was there would be a lot less obesity, credit card debt, alcoholism, etc. A coach can help with 3 and 4, but even then you need the money and self-awareness to hire a coach in the first place, you need the smarts or luck to get the right coach, and you need the discipline to actually listen to what they're telling you and do it.

Heck, I've been training and racing in various sports for 25+ years and I don't think I've ever even met the first criteria! Have never gone all in on being the best I can at sport, it's always been balanced along other priorities, whether that's family, career or just enjoying life and going on holiday, staying up late and having a few too many drinks with friends, etc. I'm pretty sure I have the physical potential to KQ if I really wanted to, but I'm 100% sure that I'm not prepared to do all the things required to find out.

Maybe Marcel Kittel could KQ, but I kinda doubt that my big body could be transformed into a top-level triathlete, even in the over 60 division.

I'm trying to get better, but "anyone can KQ" seems like "you can achieve anything". Nice thought, but not really true.

Let's just break down a KQ time for your hypothetical under-40 tri guy. This guy will need to go at least 9:30 or better on your "average" IM course. So, if Average Guy really works hard on his swim, he could potentially swim 1:00 (1:25/100 yd with no walls to push off) for his 2.4 mi swim. Allowing 5 min total for both T1 and T2, that leaves 8:25 for the B and R total. If he can ride 23 mph for the 112 mi, that's 4:52 for the bike, which leaves 3:33 (8:08/mi) for the run. Or, he could bike 22 mph for 5:05 and run 3:20 (7:38/mi), or ride 21 mph for 5:20 and run 3:05 (7:04/mi). Obv there are a large number of combinations but you get the idea. I will leave to each STer to decide whether "anyone" who completely dedicates their life to triathlon can achieve those numbers. IMO, you need a little bit of "talent" to achieve any of these combinations. I don't think just "anyone" can achieve those numbers even if they don't work at any job other than triathlon and dedicate their entire life to KQing.

As others wrote: very well stated!

I started in 2006 at 45 years old with no background in swimming, no background in biking other than holidays with panniers and some background in running (local runs, some half and two full marathons).

I comply with criteria 1), 2) and 4).

With criterium 3) I had my problems, some coaches which caused more stagnation than progress. Especially the bike was the limiter.

Not before 2014 I had it sorted all out, aerodynamics and the know how to train.

This know how to train is very personal: At first, there are general rules you can follow: look only at the numerous training plans which exist and which should apply to everyone. BUT: at the top of the AG the air gets thin and progress is differently achieved for different persons.

So I complied also with criterium 3) since 2014, such that I was able to KQ finally in 2016.
That's 10 years! Could I have done it faster? Sure if I would have known what to do beforehand. But that is different with every person as I wrote before so with some trial and error indeed 10 years is not so bad.

Now I am in the position that I know what to do and then the 2nd KQ is not so difficult anymore, such that I can do my little back door brag now: I did my 2nd KQ a couple of weeks ago and reserved already my room in Kona for October.

I don't know. I would think that the range of genetic potential is more like 7:50 - 9:00, for healthy 20 something men. I suspect that most KQers (9:30) are at 80-90% of their potential, and everyone else is like 50-60%.
Some of those KQers might not be able to go any faster than 9:00, but some would start sniffing 8:00 as pros.
2 years might be a best case scenario to get someone from 50% to 80-90% and KQ, but that would be more down to motivation, work ethic, and the ability/willingness to make the changes/sacrifices to their life.
There is a bit of a catch 22 in that being (naturally) good at it might make it easier to do all the work vs. doing all the work makes you good.

You have got to be joking. I agree that 2 yrs is best case as I think 6-7 yrs is more likely required to reach your "potential", but i really doubt your ""average guy" has the potential to go 7:50, or even 9:00. Average Guy is 10:59 at his very best is my thought. I hate to use myself as an example but hey, i know myself better than anyone else. I swam in HS, college ( small school, 3rd string), and actually fastest in Masters in my mid to late 20s. I was swimming 40,000 yd/wk for 4 yrs pre-tri, so I had a great fitness base. When I took up the B and R at age 30, I trained 20 hr/wk for 10 yrs and the best I could do, on my very, very best day, was 2:10 for an Oly dist and 4:42 for a half. I never had any desire to go further but best case I might could have gone say 10:24 using 2 times 4:42 + 1:00. Obv 10:24 is not going to KQ me. I slept 8-10 hr/night (avg 63 hr/wk), ate very healthily, weighed 160 at 6'2", got as aero as possible, etc. I can not think of anything else that I could have done to be faster. My best stand-lone times were 20:06 for 1500 scm, 18:55 (6:05/mi) for 5K run, and 1:04 (23.2 mph) for 40K bike. Obv I don't think I was KQ material, at least not in my 30s; perhaps in my 70s enough competition will have died off and I can do it then. Perhaps the "anyone can KQ" should be footnoted to say as long as he is willing to train for 50 yrs or more. :)

Purely hypothetical of course, but if the givens are: Under 40, No illness, not biggest looser obese, not a smoker, drinker or any drug issues, without a job, the means to put say 10 years into it and willing to do anything for Kona (not doping or otherwise cheating), anyone could qualify. We are talking:

1. Optimal diet. No, people know Jack about what they should eat. As soon as Joe Athlete accepts this, KQ becomes far simpler. He needs help and education. That is step one.

2. Optimal training. A bad coach is worse than being self coached, but there are great resources online for people with more than 2 iq points. Again, it is a learning process, so smart people take 2 steps while the dumb ones move backwards.

3. Optimal sleep and an interest in sleeping as much as possible, even though it is boring. Good sleeping hygiene can be learned, even at 40.

4. Rest properly between sessions, e.g calming music in a dark room. Focus on how you will execute next session.

5. Swim coach. Working continuously every day on improving swim form. Video camera, tools, the works.

6. Willing to lose weight or body composition if that is needed.

7. Willing to not socialize.

The list goes on.

I really hate it when people who aren't willing to do all the above use themselves as an argument for why anyone can't KQ. Running is a question of P/W unless you're running form is ridiculous. Both can be fixed. Cycling: P/CdA on most IM courses. You don't need no 400w to go 4.55. Find a fitter, get slick and you will ride in less than 5 hours on a lot less watts than you think. The swim is really the only tough part here, so find someone who's both good at swimming, educated in swimming and has the ability to teach.

And last, but not least, stay away from Europe. 9.30 wouldn't hold for a top 10 most places (Italy, Germany, Sweden) and not even a top 20 in Denmark.

Purely hypothetical of course, but if the givens are: Under 40, No illness, not biggest looser obese, not a smoker, drinker or any drug issues, without a job, the means to put say 10 years into it and willing to do anything for Kona (not doping or otherwise cheating), anyone could qualify. We are talking:

1. Optimal diet. No, people know Jack about what they should eat. As soon as Joe Athlete accepts this, KQ becomes far simpler. He needs help and education. That is step one.

2. Optimal training. A bad coach is worse than being self coached, but there are great resources online for people with more than 2 iq points. Again, it is a learning process, so smart people take 2 steps while the dumb ones move backwards.

3. Optimal sleep and an interest in sleeping as much as possible, even though it is boring. Good sleeping hygiene can be learned, even at 40.

4. Rest properly between sessions, e.g calming music in a dark room. Focus on how you will execute next session.

5. Swim coach. Working continuously every day on improving swim form. Video camera, tools, the works.

6. Willing to lose weight or body composition if that is needed.

7. Willing to not socialize.

The list goes on.

I really hate it when people who aren't willing to do all the above use themselves as an argument for why anyone can't KQ. Running is a question of P/W unless you're running form is ridiculous. Both can be fixed. Cycling: P/CdA on most IM courses. You don't need no 400w to go 4.55. Find a fitter, get slick and you will ride in less than 5 hours on a lot less watts than you think. The swim is really the only tough part here, so find someone who's both good at swimming, educated in swimming and has the ability to teach.

And last, but not least, stay away from Europe. 9.30 wouldn't hold for a top 10 most places (Italy, Germany, Sweden) and not even a top 20 in Denmark.

My response was to Eric Mulks response on genetic limiters. Sure, work, kids, wife etc are limiters in their own right. But in any hypothetical discussion regarding genetic limitation, you're not interested in what Average Joe is achieving today, but rather what he could achieve given the right circumstances.

How big of a part did picking the right races have in you KQ? Or did that not matter much?

If you're not willing to drop weight, that's your business. Just don't use it as an argument against the "anyone can KQ" hypothesis.