Login required to started new threads

Login required to post replies

Prev Next
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [monty] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Monty, I see the results on sportstats from Oceanside 2006 when you won (not sure it will copy and paste that well, Kevin Purcell (RIP) no longer with us:

1
MM

MARK MONTGOMERY
M50-54 Bib: 1245
VALYERMO, CA | USA
00:26:36
00:26:36
02:33:35
03:03:45
01:39:36
04:45:19
04:45:18
2
DH

DEAN HARPER
M50-54 Bib: 1291
WALNUT CREEK, CA | USA
00:26:33
00:26:33
02:41:09
03:13:17
01:35:41
04:51:20
04:51:18
3
RA

ROBERT ADAMS
M50-54 Bib: 1250
BOISE, ID | USA
00:33:21
00:33:21
02:38:26
03:17:01
01:34:41
04:53:31
04:53:28
4
KP

KEVIN PURCELL
M50-54 Bib: 1239
SAN DIEGO, CA | USA
00:30:30
00:30:30
02:35:06
03:11:53
01:39:10
04:53:39
04:5
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [WiScott] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Also available here to watch, apparently: https://proseries.ironman.com/
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Lagoon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Tough break for Race Ranger. Firmware issue caught onsite in Oceanside. I would think it'd be more important at an IM race with a 12m draft zone. I would guess more people break the 12m than ride safely off of it but I could be wrong. & I think some people like a Dubrick type could benefit from making sure they're riding the legal limit in the front pack. I guess we'll see how this affects the stronger bikers. It might allow them to bridge more quickly but it might also allow them to bring more riders up with them.
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
OK we got a not terrible new countdown to kick things off. Decent intro as well.


Oh fuck me no way I can handle 40m leading into this.
Last edited by: Lagoon: Apr 6, 24 6:03
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Lagoon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Monty's point about the weather and temps will be interesting. If the temps are that cool/cold getting onto the bike may require some clothing options.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [kajet] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
kajet wrote:
Keep in mind I was 1015th out of 1071 in the T100 Miami fantasy game at the Daily Tri.

I'm not really able to take away the podium chances of someone like Lionel Sanders or Sam Long, haha.


LOLOLOL I already thought I was bad at predictions, but this is just nuts

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Ajax Bay wrote:
dcpinsonn wrote:
I get what you're saying but my response was intended to show that Jelle Geens deserves more than a 5% chance of winning.. . .
Idk how TriRating gets to their numbers but . . . Geens would be their favorite if they didn't have him running 1:10-mid so I'm not sure how someone can't evaluate him for more than a 5% chance to win.
I don't think Thorsten's 'odds' are as useful as his predictive times (and since there's rarely a book, the figures are irrelevant). Idk either, but he gets to the 'numbers' using an athlete's recent performances SBR and weights older ones (?+24 months) less. In addition he keeps track of how each race's SBR times have turned out, year by year, and applies a factor derived from all those years to every competing athlete's prediction. Have a(nother) look at the page for that (though not 'translucent' for me!).
https://www.trirating.com/...-april-6th-seedings/
Bergere didn't run sub 1:10 last year, and he's a much better runner (2023) than Geens, so why do you think a prediction of 1:10:31 for Geens is unreasonable?
NB I still reckon Geens will win, without having to run sub 70.
One thing we can be sure of: daddy Long will run a lot better than his 1:17(!) in 2023.
Curran is a 'dark horse' for WPro podium(5).
dcpinsonn wrote:
Yeah that's fair maybe I'm overestimating his run a bit. Don't think he would run 2+ minutes off of what he did at Indian Wells on a faster course. But idk when he served that penalty. The 5min rest could've had him running a little quicker than he would have in that race.

I think Geens is plenty proven. He wins Indian Wells without that penalty & is a top tier short course athlete. He'll swim ahead of Laundry/Sanders/Long. Going to be interesting to see where everyone is coming out of T2. Geens will out run all of them if he's on form. They'll need to pass him early & get a gap. .

Zero sub 1:10 predictions proved correct.
Sanders ran 1:10:40, Long >1:12 and Geens 1:11:42. Way back Weaver might run just under 1:10 (who is a 2:13 marathon runner but he's in #42 (of 69 starters) 26 minutes down)) Edit: Weaver runs 1:10:01.
Last edited by: Ajax Bay: Apr 6, 24 11:12
Quote Reply
Re: [ThailandUltras] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
ThailandUltras wrote:
s13tx wrote:
Long thread so I didnā€™t get to read all yet but I hope our boy Lionel Sanders wins this one. It will be his defining moment. This race will show us either heā€™s a different animal or same old himself. Of course, thatā€™s under the assumptions everything goes well. No crash, penalty, upset stomach, crampsā€¦etc. Anyway, heā€™s the only person that Iā€™m rooting for. Hard work is done, heā€™s been patient so itā€™s time for him to unleash the beast.
.
.
I fear you may need a grief councelor before the year is over.

I enjoyed watching the race very much. He did exactly what he planned for and Iā€™m really happy for him.
Quote Reply
Re: [mathematics] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
mathematics wrote:
s13tx wrote:
Long thread so I didnā€™t get to read all yet but I hope our boy Lionel Sanders wins this one. It will be his defining moment. This race will show us either heā€™s a different animal or same old himself. Of course, thatā€™s under the assumptions everything goes well. No crash, penalty, upset stomach, crampsā€¦etc. Anyway, heā€™s the only person that Iā€™m rooting for. Hard work is done, heā€™s been patient so itā€™s time for him to unleash the beast.

If you're trolling this is 10/10. In a thread discussing the intricacies and issues of back-half pro racing, it's a nice change to happily root for a faltering yet lovable youtube champ.

I donā€™t troll. He IS 2024 Oceanside 70.3 Champion. Hope he does well for the rest of the season.
Quote Reply
Re: [Lurker4] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Lurker4 wrote:
Every race Lionel does I'm thinking this is the one, only to be disappointed. But really, hear me out. This is the one.

You got that right!!! Heā€™s a different animal this year. He got his confidence back, swims better so his competitors better watch out. No more fooling around for him.
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [buzzsaw] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
buzzsaw wrote:
Who the fook are the dudes #41-80? They really need to bump up the entry barrier to become a pro. Kind of embarrassing.

Was looking at the results. 41st place was 30 minutes off of the winner. But did have a fast enough time to fall in the top 3 OA amateurs. However 53rd through 59th all had finish times of slower than 4:30. 44-58 minutes back. That puts most of them behind at least 20 amateurs.

I know some time this will happen when guys are trying to hang on in the first couple of legs and blow up in the run. But some underwhelming swim and bike splits from some of these guys.

As for amatuers, watch out if drake deuel figures out how to swim

Matt
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Well written, and I like the snappy style. What happened to Lange and Jewett though?

Agree with your observations, except this one thing:

Ironman must increase the prize purse, because ā€œSo many good professional athletes did not make any money today.ā€

Well, these professionals were there voluntarily. Oceanside was famous for having a big and relatively deep field and paying pathetic money well before they signed up. Yet pros cling to it. Itā€™s a free market. Ironman should probably decrease the prize purse šŸ˜‰

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden
Last edited by: kajet: Apr 6, 24 14:26
Quote Reply
Re: [s13tx] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
s13tx wrote:
Lurker4 wrote:
Every race Lionel does I'm thinking this is the one, only to be disappointed. But really, hear me out. This is the one.

You got that right!!! Heā€™s a different animal this year. He got his confidence back, swims better so his competitors better watch out. No more fooling around for him.

Broken clock right twice a day. I'm glad I don't have to feel disappointed for believing the impossible dream once again.
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [kajet] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
kajet wrote:
kajet wrote:
Keep in mind I was 1015th out of 1071 in the T100 Miami fantasy game at the Daily Tri.

I'm not really able to take away the podium chances of someone like Lionel Sanders or Sam Long, haha.



LOLOLOL I already thought I was bad at predictions, but this is just nuts

Lol

You are awesome buddy
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Chemist wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
As for amatuers, watch out if drake deuel figures out how to swim

Isnā€™t that guy a top cyclist with some big strava KOMs? His swim wasnā€™t even that bad.

Dimond Bikes Superfan
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [ericlambi] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Yeah. Heā€™s got the Haleakala climb I believe. And was an accomplished rower in college.

Matt
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [kajet] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
kajet wrote:
What happened to Lange and Jewett though?
Didnā€™t Lange go off course, like Emma PB?
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [WhittleFit] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
WhittleFit wrote:
kajet wrote:
What happened to Lange and Jewett though?

Didnā€™t Lange go off course, like Emma PB?
Skipper seemed to have suddenly lost over 2 minutes between 26 miles and 42 miles on the bike. Maybe that was just Long and Sanders getting on the front and drilling it (with Sperl Laundry and Riele hanging on like grim death).
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Great, so wanted to watch Oceanside (in Australia so couldn't watch live as in the middle of the night for us, and then had to drive my son to his cycling race in the morning), now in the afternoon want to watch it but it's not available on demand is that correct? Well done Ironman I guess.
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Diabolo] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Diabolo wrote:
Great, so wanted to watch Oceanside (in Australia so couldn't watch live as in the middle of the night for us, and then had to drive my son to his cycling race in the morning), now in the afternoon want to watch it but it's not available on demand is that correct? Well done Ironman I guess.
'Fraid not. Outside+ (subscription required) gives you rewind/ start from zero/rewatch but the rest (eg Outside live in NA, or the IM app everywhere else) disables that. The +30s and -30s buttons were there (live) but without function. Live or nothing.
Given that (I assume) IM will broadcast all the IM Series in this way, for you a sub might be worth it for a 4 months (another 13? races (Texas to Tallinn) before Nice). I'm assuming IMWCs and Taupo will be streamed in a way which will allow review; maybe that's naive.
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [kajet] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
kajet wrote:
Well written, and I like the snappy style. What happened to Lange and Jewett though?

Agree with your observations, except this one thing:

Ironman must increase the prize purse, because ā€œSo many good professional athletes did not make any money today.ā€

Well, these professionals were there voluntarily. Oceanside was famous for having a big and relatively deep field and paying pathetic money well before they signed up. Yet pros cling to it. Itā€™s a free market. Ironman should probably decrease the prize purse šŸ˜‰

Yeah I know there's some joking in here but I don't think it's out of line to ask if IM can do more for their pros. 8 deeps & 7.5k >>> 1k isn't very much for a major race. The Pro Series is great but it only exists because PTO forced their hand. It still mostly benefits top triathletes who were already making a living in the sport. I'm really just asking them to move the money around. Some of the $100k races will be a lot weaker than this one. I think IM could even do what PTO does & pay a good chunk of the field a small amount for showing up. Places 15-25 get $500 or something like that. I think some of the non-Pro Series $40k range races could also be broken up into multiple $15k-20k races to help developing pros set up their race calendars. Some critiqued the size of this field/back of pack pros (don't think there was any real impact on the race) but a lot of the smaller 70.3 pro races were gutted for the Pro Series. Races like Oregon/Gulf Coast/Michigan/Maryland/etc aren't on the calendar. If you're a North American pro you have limited options.
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Ajax Bay wrote:
Diabolo wrote:
Great, so wanted to watch Oceanside (in Australia so couldn't watch live as in the middle of the night for us, and then had to drive my son to his cycling race in the morning), now in the afternoon want to watch it but it's not available on demand is that correct? Well done Ironman I guess.
'Fraid not. Outside+ (subscription required) gives you rewind/ start from zero/rewatch but the rest (eg Outside live in NA, or the IM app everywhere else) disables that. The +30s and -30s buttons were there (live) but without function. Live or nothing.
Given that (I assume) IM will broadcast all the IM Series in this way, for you a sub might be worth it for a 4 months (another 13? races (Texas to Tallinn) before Nice). I'm assuming IMWCs and Taupo will be streamed in a way which will allow review; maybe that's naive.


I was doing the math

If I bought the subscription and had access to the 30s fast forward, and I started watching 15 min late so I could press fast forward at every ad, would it be worth it ? Then I realized I would have to start watching 3 hours later because I would have caught up to the front of the race within one hour. I would have had to leave my finger on the button.

IM thought it needed to surpass a no sound, in the dark broadcast. They managed to be more annoying with their ads.
Last edited by: marcag: Apr 7, 24 4:49
Quote Reply
Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [pk] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
pk wrote:
kajet wrote:
Keep in mind I was 1015th out of 1071 in the T100 Miami fantasy game at the Daily Tri.

I'm not really able to take away the podium chances of someone like Lionel Sanders or Sam Long, haha.


can we ban you from any prediction thread until you make it into the top 1000 twice in a row.

So, I came 700th this time around, one more to go.

(Yes, of course, it was 700th out of 731).

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden
Quote Reply

Prev Next