This is the exact definition of sleeping on someone. 5% chance because they can't figure out how to evaluate a short course star who has 1 prior (very good) 70.3 result. Lost by less than 5min & served a 5min drafting penalty against a similar field.

Geens will be very close to the front pack of the swim, if not in there. He was 3rd out of the water in Indian Wells. That is something you can evaluate. Vincent Luis, one of the best short course swimmer (1st out of the water in Tokyo), put a minute into him in that race. I don't think guys like Dubrick (not a 1:1 but swam 23:01 @ Indian Wells last year, Geens was 23:08 in 2021)/Shi/Riele/Stepinski/etc can get away & come out with that kind of a gap. Dubrick might get off the front by 15-30s. If you're making predictions & assigning percentages you have a lifetime of short course racing to help evaluate the kind of impact Geens can have on this race. I could end up being very wrong but you can't rationally assign Geens 5% & then give Sam 30%, Lionel 20%, and Jackson 15%. That math doesn't math to me. Geens & Long should be pretty even at the top if we were taking bets on this.

& then no sub-70:00 runs seems not it. Oceanside is fast/flat & gets great weather. Geens ran 1:08 @ Indian Wells. That's a slower run course. Sam & Lionel can threaten that barrier. Tomas Rodriguez can threaten that barrier. Patrick Lange can threaten that barrier. Matt Hanson can threaten that barrier.

Referenced your question above. Geens is a middle-ish ITU swimmer. Maybe around bottom 40% at the biggest races. I think that could have you front pack swimming against this field. Doesn't seem to be a ton of firepower on the swim. The better swimmers look like guys in his range. He'll have at least 2:00 on Sam/Lionel. Maybe a minute on Laundry. It'll be interesting to see how this thing plays out. Has Dubrick gotten better on the bike? Will Laundry/Sanders/Long find each other on the bike? Will they pass Geens & when does that pass happen? They need to pass & drop him imo. Sam ran great in Miami. He's run more like 71/72 on accurate courses in the past. Would be interesting if they all exit T2 together.

Well take Sanders: he averaged >1:11 in his 70.3s in 2022 and ~1:12:30 in 2023. Thorsten has the run course running about a minute faster than the 'standard'. Is Sanders running two minutes faster than his average of last year?
What would you predict (based on past form) Sanders will run on Saturday.
Long? Averages about 1:12 in his excellent season last year. I note his run speed at Miami (NB in hot&humid) equates to a 1:09: that'd be impressive here (in 50 degrees).
Lange: has never run sub-1:10.
Hanson: averages 1:12 and dipped under 1:10 once, 22 months ago.
Tomas Rodriguez has been sub 70 just the once, and averages 1:14.
As you say: they "can threaten" the 1:10 "barrier" but the stats predict they won't.
Geens might, but data is thin.
At IW in 2021 Geens ran 61 secs faster than Sanders. Is Geens any faster now than he was in late 2021? (I'll offer a 'no')
Both in Paris and Pontevedra he was more than a minute down (in 10km) on Bergere, who ran 1:10:33 last year here.

I get what you're saying but my response was intended to show that Jelle Geens deserves more than a 5% chance of winning.

If we're going specifically at sub-1:10, I would say that averages don't matter with the way courses + weather varies, and how they aren't accurately measured,. Lionel ran 1:08 @ Oceanside in 2022. So, yes, he *could* run faster than his average on this fast/flat course with good weather. He could run a time he's run there before.

I agree on Sam -- he hasn't been a sub-1:10 guy ever. But he seems to be in better run form this year. That's why I've been consistent in saying he needs to gap Geens coming out of T2. The averages, again, with the others don't make much sense to me. Hanson ran his sub-70 on a hilly course in warm weather (Chattanooga). He's mostly been dropping sub-2:40 IM runs. His average includes places like Finland + St. George, which are not fast run courses. Lange had 2 legitimate shots to break 2:30 last year & doesn't do many 70.3s. Rodriguez ran 1:10:05 @ Oceanside last year. Geens ran 1:08:17 on a harder course.

Idk how TriRating gets to their numbers but they're giving Rodriguez a 1:12:08. Is he going to run 2min slower than what he ran on the same course a year ago? Seems like they're giving some emphasis to overall results instead of course/weather/field. Geens would be their favorite if they didn't have him running 1:10-mid so I'm not sure how someone can't evaluate him for more than a 5% chance to win.

Harbor swim (course updated late yesterday, sea state warning till Sat noon): https://www.ironman.com/im703-oceanside-course

I don't think Thorsten's 'odds' are as useful as his predictive times (and since there's rarely a book, the figures are irrelevant). Idk either, but he gets to the 'numbers' using an athlete's recent performances SBR and weights older ones (?+24 months) less. In addition he keeps track of how each race's SBR times have turned out, year by year, and applies a factor derived from all those years to every competing athlete's prediction. Have a(nother) look at the page for that (though not 'translucent' for me!).
https://www.trirating.com/...-april-6th-seedings/
Bergere didn't run sub 1:10 last year, and he's a much better runner (2023) than Geens, so why do you think a prediction of 1:10:31 for Geens is unreasonable?
NB I still reckon Geens will win, without having to run sub 70.
One thing we can be sure of: daddy Long will run a lot better than his 1:17(!) in 2023.
Curran is a 'dark horse' for WPro podium(5).

Geens looks good on paper (and on strava), but he has only raced 1 70.3, which he didn't even win. Experience matters quite a bit at this race distance, and he has not established himself yet as a force at this distance. I think he has a chance at winning, but it is unlikely as there are simply too many superstars in this race who will beat him if they have a good day. Long beat a lot of people at Miami who are way more proven than Geens at middle distance. Furthermore, Lionel appears to be way more dialed in than last year. Laundry is always a force and could definitely win again. If Dubrick is even a little better on the bike this year he could also win. Lange is not going to be significantly faster than anyone else at a cool half marathon. He outshines everyone at warmer marathons where cooling is such a huge factor.

1. Long
2. Sanders
3. Laundry
4. Dubrick
5. Geens
6. Lange

Is Lange expected to be a front pack swimmer out of this field (that lacks a lot of top swimmers)? Anybody have an idea what kind of form Braden Currie is on? For shits and giggles I'll guess . . .

1. Geens
2. Currie
3. Long
4. Lange
5. Laundry
6. Sanders

Women's

1. Knibb
2. Findlay
3. Jewett

Probably forgetting some names that'll be on there on the women's side. EPB is out or at least injured from a recent bike crash, no?

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

https://proseries.ironman.com/races/im703-oceanside
Pro Media: https://proseries.ironman.com/races/im703-oceanside 2pm Pacific

Yeah that's fair maybe I'm overestimating his run a bit. Don't think he would run 2+ minutes off of what he did at Indian Wells on a faster course. But idk when he served that penalty. The 5min rest could've had him running a little quicker than he would have in that race.

Responding in general to some of the other comments but I think Geens is plenty proven. He wins Indian Wells without that penalty & is a top tier short course athlete. He'll swim ahead of Laundry/Sanders/Long. Going to be interesting to see where everyone is coming out of T2. Geens will out run all of them if he's on form. They'll need to pass him early & get a gap. Could be harder with the ocean swim + 12m draft zone.

I like Dubrick a lot. People seem higher than I am on Lange. I just feel like he's a 140.6 guy. Don't know if his swim/bike can have him in the top-5 here. No idea where Currie is at. They talked about him on The Triathlon Hour podcast today but his championship results haven't been good since St. George.

And now we see no race ranger being used.

Might this be why Pto never called penalties with it?

Did IM basically say, if we can't trust this thing why are we using it?

There's just no way this tech won't require a lot of kinks to work out. And you can't do that without using it in races. So I'm wondering what really went down with not using it. Wouldn't RR still want the trial run experience for learning. Or is the data really just garbage in a tight field like CA. I could see the 12m zone on narrow roads causing some issues.

So for the record:

1. Ironman says Race Ranger is interesting, but thanks but no thanks.
2. Athletes and commentators moan that we really really need Race Ranger.
3. Ironman adopts it and the limited availability of the product or cost necessitates excluding some big name pros from Oceanside.
4. Athletes and pundits wonder if Race Ranger will actually make drafting more potent by allowing Athletes more time in the comfort zone without risking penalty.
4. Ironman cancels Race Ranger for bugs or other issues.

So once again we see pro athletes scored an own goal here on multiple levels for something that turns out isn't ready.

If this wasn't being televised, I'd guess they would just use it as data collection. But now that they under the big lights with this series, no way they'll run out that type of product in "trial only" period.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Where are you guys seeing no race ranger? What a terrible decision…

Here it is:

Like PTO has in their televised races?

Can you link to me where they knew of RR issues on site in Miami? If you can't, no shit it's a smart decision to take them off the telecast if they are shown to be wonky on site. T100 Miami they were actively using RR as it's intended purpose, if you are suggesting it was faulty, you may have to back up that claim.

You can't have a huge blinking light, blink different colors and not have to explain on the broadcast what it is for or means. It's bad optics, which is why I said, if this wasn't televised they likely go through with it as data collection only.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

So you're thinking whatever issue they have hadn't been seen until now. I'm just assuming it has either been seen or no one at the PTO was paying enough attention to actually use and catch the issue.

I'd assume it's the latter and Ironman was actually planning on using this for more than PR and their internal tests revealed issues.

I dont really know or care what the issue is. They've used it what less than 10 races around the world I believe? Shocking it's potential got some issues still to figure out..... I was just saying it's a no brainer to take them out of the telecast and coverage if it's still wonky.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I got the impression that they're having a problem or problems with a newer updated version that they would be using for the very first time at Oceanside. Perhaps they had problems with the previous version as well but I didn't glean that from the announcement.

YMMV

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Yeah like the guy said above, my understanding is they were planning to use a 2.0 version this weekend and I believe it is a smaller overall unit with a central management system. I don’t believe it’s been used before at any race.

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong.

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blog

I see in a couple places that we can watch this on Outside+ for free?? Can one of you video literate folks please post a link where that might be, or if YouTube is covering it live too???

Thanks, should be fun.

https://watch.outsideonline.com/live-events

Thanks Scott, tried to just put in outside+ and kept getting sign up pages...

Could the "not so perfect" measurement not just be used for refs to make a machine aided human interpretation call. At least just having them out there may keep pro athletes playing honest?

I think we have to add a new wrinkle to the race equation now, it is going to be cold for the entire pro race. I did a swim in the ocean down that way this weekend and the water was under 60, and looks like when they get on the bike, it will be about 48, going up to 57 by race end.. IF I recall correctly, Lionel does not like the cold, as well as a lot of other guys who excel in the heat. It doesnt sound like a lot, but there will for sure be a lot of guys and gals that aren't going to be able to get going in that kind of weather.

And for some it is going to add on minutes to their T1 time too, getting on several layers of clothing to perhaps peel off later. When I did this race a long time ago when I had just turned 50, it was just like this with rain on the early bike too. For me it was heaven, got on the bike in my skin suit and never looked back, while others took a couple hours to thaw out....

If I recall you won your age group that day and biked something like 2:20. It was the first year they had 70.3 worlds at Clearwater and you declined to go because you did not want to be in a draft fest....do I have the story straight? Maybe 2006?

Mostly good memory, I won the old mans age group and set a new record, and I got to beat my old nemesis Dean Harper by a good margin. But they were still giving out Kona slots at this race, and I was the only winner who turned it down. We made a little spectacle at our table at the awards ceremony, I quietly was saying I should just take it to do the swim so that people around could overhear(for shits and giggles). Needless to say they were flabbergasted that someone would treat such a treasure so haphazardly, not knowing of course I had already been 15 times before as a pro..

Then funny thing is Dean also then didnt take it and it rolled to 3rd, which was the biggest surprise to that guy ever. Dont remember who he was, but I think he even offered me money when it looked like I was still deciding...

The course was long in those days too, ride came out 57 1/2 miles, and the run spent a few miles in the soft sand due to road construction. But swim was spot on, Dean and I got out in around 26 flat, while the lead pro men were in the 23's. But it was all in the harbor, not one of the rare years they actually had a surf swim there, and apparently it wont happen again this year....It was quite an obstacle course going in one of the last waves, and having to swim like a frogger game...