Was surprised that Trevor was still on the start list after the concussion. Glad he's taking care of himself. It's going to be a long season -- there isn't a ton of $$$ at Oceanside, the swim doesn't favor him, & he already has his worlds slot. Get healthy & start the season when you're ready. If he's not ready for Texas (on the start list there), 70.3 Chattanooga might be a good race for him.

Bob aceing it with his Knibb interview (and also see his one with Lange).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUqNZLfnBCk

Think they're sleeping a bit on Geens. They give him less of a chance to win (just 5%) than Sam (30%)/Lionel (20%)/Jackson (15%), & by quite a big margin. Geens wins Indian Wells in 2021 without the drafting penalty, which he said he felt he didn't deserve. Geens is going to swim faster than those guys, is a strong biker, & *should* run faster than all of them too. Feel like they're ignoring the course a bit & how a good swimmer can build a gap. Oceanside is tougher than other courses to really pull time back on the bike. I'm happy to be wrong but Geens is the clear men's favorite in my mind. You at least would have to give him similar odds. Sam or Lionel would have to come out of T2 with a couple minute lead on him. They're both good runners but they'll need a gap.

Well my pick is Geens, and Thorsten reckons #2 (whatever odds quoted), 30 secs down on Long.
Thorsten strictly bases his predictions on data (and underweights older data), and there's just one for Geens - The IW70.3 in late 2021 (and probably the penalty flew under the data cleansing radar). Geens is all in on Paris (but with an eye on Taupo) so, like Knibb (who in her interview with Bob said she'd just done the one draft illegal session (last week)) his bike may be in a position unfamiliar to him with consequences for losses to T2 and ability to run off it. Nevertheless, reasonable to expect him to lay down the best run of the day (MPro). And ftw as he'll be either already ahead or not far behind the slower runners Long, Sanders, Laundry et al. Long will risk under-controlled overbiking again (see last year here) to give himself a buffer.

Are there no other fast swimmers on the start list? Geens weakness in ITU is his swim, I'm sure he'll be a lot faster than your Skippers, Longs and Lionels but I'd be surprised if he's first out of the water.

Dubrick is a fantastic swimmer.

Geens won't be 'doing a Bergere' but he'll be front pack. What @dcpinnson said was "swim faster than those guys": obviously way faster than Long/Sanders and ahead of (but probably joined by) Laundry within a few miles of T2. Geens knows he's the fastest runner (absent West) and so do his riding peers who will need to make efforts accordingly.
Geens' primary race aim (same as Knibb) is qualification/validation for Taupo (3 MPRO / 3WPRO but four effectively since Knibb is validating).
From Knibb's interview it's clear there is no chance on Nice: she cites T100 Ibiza as her first race post Olympics (NB to race Nice she'd have to complete another 70.3 pre 1st Jul: which is not in her Paris focused calendar. Also going Media dark from 1st June btw.

Maybe, there's a lot of pros on that list I've never heard of though, I'd expect a few of them to be fish types.

I'm not sure Geens would make front pack on a typical T100/PTO type start list with Alistair, Royle, Bogen etc

Like Ajax said, they’re not “sleeping on Geens” like it is some sort of panel of experts weighing people’s chances. It’s an algorithm where the only inputs are past long course results, especially recent ones. By definition it will give people like Duffy or anyone coming off the Olympic cycle no chances.

I emphasize this because I see a lot of people here assuming that Thorsten publishes his opinions or something. But all he does is crunch numbers.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Do they use range ranger for the pro series? I know it is not 20 m, but just to avoid marshalling drama?

Yes they will be using race ranger, that seems to be one of the reasons IM has put in field limits.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

i was a bit surprised at his predictions for run splits. we've seen lionel run 1:08 on that course, and west run 1:07. but he doesn't have anyone breaking 1:10! based on the weather forecasts it seems like it could be fast conditions.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

High surf advisory for Friday and Saturday, saying less experienced swimmers should stay out of water. Lionel…. :(

Isnt the swim entirely in the harbor? I do remember awhile back they did do an out through the surf and then into the harbor for the finish, what's the course for this year?

Think it is the same this year, out into the surf for first roughly half of the swim before turning into the harbour. Based on what is posted on the site.

Race Ranger is not marshalling (in the sense you may wish) draft penalties will still be the call of draft marshals based on what they see (with RR as a cue). Am all for RR but there are pluses and minuses to this, it is simply a deterrent and ‘integrity check’ and as such am sure a few folks will simply ignore it and chance their luck. Post race data may well elucidate those types of folks but that data won’t get them DQ’ed during or after race unless someone lodges a protest against them.
Whether that data gets that individuals ‘card marked’ is a different discussion.

My hope is in future that data is used in real time allowing for a penalty tent say half way round run. Why the tent at half way into run you might ask?…. So the data can be differentiated between say some with 90secs in red from 40+ 1-2sec violations versus someone 90secs in red from 2x 45secs “taking the piss” as we say in english.

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

Oh i fully get that, but as you say it acts as both a detergent but also as an assistance for the marshalls.

Lionel may not be a "fish" in the water but he is far from a "less experienced swimmer"

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Oh I agree, but just figure 'rough' conditions are not exactly gonna be in his favour in terms of time lost...

lagerstrom usually swims well here; expect he won't mind the surf.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Eric isn't racing.

still got that injured foot? he needs a good stretch of consistent health!
that's another name missing from the front of the swim and i guess the sanders/long train will be happy about that.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Knibb
Findlay
Jewett

Geens
Dubrick
Long

Oceanside had been harbor entry for a lot of years, but in recent years it switched to beach entry and then swim from open water into the harbor and exit up a boat ramp to T1. But when it’s high surf (as it was the first year they wanted to go back to the beach entry) they have a contingency to switch to harbor entry and exit.

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Sharon McN
@IronCharo
#TeamZoot
Clif Bar Pace Team 2003-2018

On the pod it sounded like it was 90%, but not quite there. I think he defered his entry to St George