Yeah I think she's here for her Worlds slot & that Taylor Knibb in her base build (wherever she's at in training rn) would still be hard to beat at this distance. The Pro Tri News guys did a good job breaking down PTO points on their preview pod today. IM Pro Series races carry the gold label status now so Knibb can score quite well here if she wins by a big margin. In the last 2 years, Knibb has won 5 out of 6 of her 70.3s/PTO races. The 1 other race was her 2nd @ PTO US Open in 2022. She put 4:00 into the field @ 70.3 Worlds last year & won the PTO US Open by 50s. I don't think the firepower is there up front for her to be seriously challenge but you never know. She's going to swim/bike clear of the people. It's going to take an amazing run and/or blow up for someone to catch her.

Knibb has to race a 70.3 to validate her Taupo slot (and that before 30 Jun): this is it (just needs to finish). Participation, at whatever speed she wants, will have no adverse affect on Paris prep (Yokohama is 5 weeks later). If she wishes to validate for Nice (NB with obligatory T100 Ibiza 7 days later) she could 'stroll' one more 70.3, but seems a distraction from 2024's main effort.

Yeah I was thinking along these exact lines. Until the Olympics it’s all about the Olympics. Well, almost. All she has to do in Oceanside is finish. Then again, she has surprised me a number of times already

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Why can’t you come from way back on the bike?

Knibb's not going to chill though until she knows the W is in the bag right? Like she's going to do her obligatory strong S and B and then see what she needs to hold right? She's not going to just ride in the group, check the box finish is she?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Yeah I would think it would be slightly harder to make a charge on the bike at a T100 race with the slightly longer swim, slightly shorter bike, 20m drafting zone, and slightly shorter run. Slightly more time on the bike in a 70.3 percentage-wise (Oceanside men's winner in 2023 spent 58% of their race time on the bike versus Ditlev on the bike for 54% of his race time in Miami). Plus the 12m draft zone allows you to bike closer together. Oceanside, however, isn't a race track so this can't be a 1:1 argument. It'll be interesting to see how Race Ranger affects things. Some people are probably used to cheating the 12m & others might find they've been too generous in past races. It's clear that Ditlev/Laidlow/Long didn't bring anyone with them to the front of the race in Miami. The 12m drafting zone (+ cooler weather) might change that.

1. Much shorter draft zone
2. Huge PRO field, much of which is in front of you at T1 and you can’t slot in
3. Maybe less great anti draft policing

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Thank you for the detailed answer
Makes sense

So much for the chances of 2 of my favorites long and Sanders

😩

Keep in mind I was 1015th out of 1071 in the T100 Miami fantasy game at the Daily Tri.

I'm not really able to take away the podium chances of someone like Lionel Sanders or Sam Long, haha.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Lol

I like the humility

1) Geens
2) Laundry
3) Rodriguez

Jackson just did a 1,500 SCM time trial on 17:43 so he is definitely second group material and the dude is an absolute beast on the bike, just not certain he can deliver a 68-69 min half which is what I think it's going to take to win this year.

can we ban you from any prediction thread until you make it into the top 1000 twice in a row.

No mate, because the only way I can rank higher in fantasy tables is to convince you guys to submit predictions even shittier than mine.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Knibb will be so far ahead after the bike, I doubt anyone in this field will catch her. Knibb might not have the best run but she can run and she is definitely fast as most OD folks are

Lionel's Oceanside VLOG

The Daily Tri Fantasy is open at long last

https://www.dailytri.com/...es/im-oceanside-2024

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Some playful sandbagging from Lionel towards the end of this with his age/workouts/race results. He said he hasn't won an IM since 2017, which is true, but he was 2nd at the St. George WCs in 2022. The 3x3k workout he's doing is during race week at race pace or even slightly faster than what he'll hold in the race. Should be pretty obvious that that pace is intentional versus what he could handle in that kind of a workout. I'm sure he's been doing plenty of running faster than that. He's a favorite no matter what he says.

Really liked walking back through the Jan years with the two of them at Oceanside. That was a lot of fun.

That was a good part of it, would be fun if you can "pause" a race when stuff like that happens.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

1.Knibb
2.Pallant
3.Jewett

1.Geens
2.Long
3.Lange

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

I'd like to believe Sanders will win, and his training vs racing volume suggests he's going to be a monster. But he hasn't shown much ability to lead a race lately among the other competitors here. I think the bike course will be problematic with him being bunched up the pack until the last half of the course and by then Geens will likely be to far ahead to catch on the run. Same goes for Sam.

It's that first 1/3 or so of the bike course that really is going to make the slower swimmers lag while the front rides away with it.

The only other option is to get a bit risky on the bike early on and risk a crash or inadvertent penalty.

So my guess is Sanders will still be down 2 minutes on the lead and he won't close that gap on the bike and he'll likely only shave off a minute at best on the run.

I'd love to be wrong.

1. Long
2. Geens
3. Lange

1. Findlay
2. Knibb
3. EPB

New Justin Riele video:

Trevor Foley is out. As per his instagram:

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Triathlete's preview (by Thorsten):
https://www.triathlete.com/...de-pro-race-preview/
Associated data:
https://www.trirating.com/...-april-6th-seedings/
He goes Knibb-Findlay-Jewett and Long-Geens-Sanders.
I'll go: Knibb-Findlay-EPB (Jewett will leak too much time on the congested bike) and Geens-Long-Laundry.

1. Knibb
2. Langridge
3. Findlay


1. Long
2. Laundry
3. Skipper

Would love to see Lionel win, but I'll say he will come in 7th with lessons learned....