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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
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I think it was going to be obvious they would slash some C level events to pool the money to go all in on this IM Pro Series. The one push back I'll give:

WT's pathway is built on an developmental pathway. Outside of IM's WC fields, there is no "pathway". It's truly if 1st year pro wants to sign up and race the A event, he can. Even if he's no where close to being ready for that. That never happens in ITU. This isn't an issue only this year because races were slashed, this was a major point last year, but yes it'll only get worse now, if pro races are cut. So imo it then takes strong support around said "no name pro" to say "your not ready", not "sure go for it because you can".

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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If the issue is that they only have 120 race rangers, and so would otherwise be able to accommodate, then isn't the solution just to go and buy another 30 race rangers?

Yes, I get that having that many athletes on the course could prove difficult, but some of these issues are solvable. If there's conflict between men and women's races, especially in a 70.3 - just give more space between and delay the age groupers by a few mins. This would prove harder for a full IM, but they're not insurmountable issues.
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [timbasile] [ In reply to ]
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Ha, I assume the issue is always $$$

$$$ to pay for the 30 or more race rangers

$$$$ for the permit that even just a "few minutes later" can affect whether the race is permitted or not.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Lurker4] [ In reply to ]
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There's a lot in here but what's lacking is that IM has some obligation to communicate with its athletes. This is the first year where races are getting capped. Instead of throwing it back at the athlete, how about asking IM to communicate these changes?

There's no athlete union in the sport. Maybe athletes would want to pool together more resources to invest in race ranger to expand fields, idk.

Brooks -- yeah I was trying to get out that I'm not sure if they had to eliminate all of the development races to pay for the Pro Series. Would love to see a breakdown of prize money the last few years to this year. They emailed about this today, saying they've put up nearly $6 million in prize money this year. Even if they're putting in more, the PTO forced their hands & they could be doing a little more. Not sure how much patting on the back we should be doing when they could've done this at any time. Pros pay entry fees too so that also helps offset costs. It's $1250 for the year. 900+ pro men & 400+ pro women per PTO. 1000 memberships would be $1.25 million.
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Lagoon] [ In reply to ]
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Thorsten's take ('seedings'):
https://www.trirating.com/...-april-6th-seedings/
Long and Knibb for home wins, though Knibb might overtake Long in the water (if gap is only 2 minutes)!
I assume Lange is doing this as one of his 2 70.3s to validate his IMWC AQ.
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]
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I assume Lange is doing this as one of his 2 70.3s to validate his IMWC AQ. //

I thought he was doing the ironman series, is that not right? If so, he will be doing 2 other Ironmans other than Kona, so really doesnt need half's to validate...


But perhaps he is forging the series and the $200+k prize money, but he would be one of the favorites if he went after it...
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
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dcpinsonn wrote:


There's no athlete union in the sport......

Isn't that what PTO is supposed to be?

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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Unions aren't run by billionaires.

Lange is doing the IM Pro Series + Roth. He needs to knock out a pair of 70.3s. He's doing Texas so this race makes a ton of sense for him.
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
dcpinsonn wrote:



There's no athlete union in the sport......


Isn't that what PTO is supposed to be?

Yes, in theory that's kind of what it's supposed to be. They do a good job of promoting top athletes and trying to raise the profile of the sport. The issue is that PTO is less of a union and more of a competitor. You can join the PTO for free, and there's no 'line in the sand' for what you can/can't do (in terms of races).

A true union would hold it's athletes to account and threaten to (or actually) walkout on one of the races. Ironman losing all PTO athletes for their first US Pro Series race would surely get them to fix their sloppy rules in a hurry.

Don't get me wrong, it's good to have competition, and choice of events helps reduce the monopoly that Ironman has and the things they can do because of that. But it's not a union in the way we'd define it today.
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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After the 1st few years, the PTO was never going to be the representation for the pro athlete. It was going full head of steam to an race production/series that it now is doing. And I guess it also "supports" all LC pro's by doing it's LC ranking + prize bonuses, but it was never really going to become an union that has teeth. Obviously it would help, but I still think the issue is IM sorta behaves as 100 independent races (or how many races there are these days, and probaly 40% are now AG only?) that gives 1-2 people the common goal of reaching it's WC events. That's about all IM is doing, all they have done is added more money to specific events. But there is basically zero structure to it, it truly is an "all comers" event. Unlike every other race organization (I guess there is now 3- IM / PTO / ITU errr WT), IM basically has very little actual structure to it's events. It sorta self seeds it's own events by giving out A-B-C level prize purses but again the whole issue is that a 1st year pro or a "back of pack" pro that has no real business being in "A" events is totally allowed to do it. But again, it really is of no interest in IM's pov to create checks and balances other than "are you a pro"....cool your eligible to race any event outside of the WC that is qualification only. Like they really don't care all that much that pro's who shouldn't race their events are racing under the pro designation and then on the down low sorta "mucking" up the race for other pros'. It's pretty much a shrug of the shoulders, hands off approach. But again in terms of that aspect, they are the only series/league/organization that basically behaves in that manner. T100 has a pecking order, and ITU def has a pecking order that takes basically years to climb the ladder; but a ladder that is there to make sure the athletes who are racing the top series- should/deserve to be there.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Mar 29, 24 6:21
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
After the 1st few years, the PTO was never going to be the representation for the pro athlete. It was going full head of steam to an race production/series that it now is doing. And I guess it also "supports" all LC pro's by doing it's LC ranking + prize bonuses, but it was never really going to become an union that has teeth. Obviously it would help, but I still think the issue is IM sorta behaves as 100 independent races (or how many races there are these days, and probaly 40% are now AG only?) that gives 1-2 people the common goal of reaching it's WC events. That's about all IM is doing, all they have done is added more money to specific events. But there is basically zero structure to it, it truly is an "all comers" event. Unlike every other race organization (I guess there is now 3- IM / PTO / ITU errr WT), IM basically has very little actual structure to it's events. It sorta self seeds it's own events by giving out A-B-C level prize purses but again the whole issue is that a 1st year pro or a "back of pack" pro that has no real business being in "A" events is totally allowed to do it. But again, it really is of no interest in IM's pov to create checks and balances other than "are you a pro"....cool your eligible to race any event outside of the WC that is qualification only. Like they really don't care all that much that pro's who shouldn't race their events are racing under the pro designation and then on the down low sorta "mucking" up the race for other pros'. It's pretty much a shrug of the shoulders, hands off approach. But again in terms of that aspect, they are the only series/league/organization that basically behaves in that manner. T100 has a pecking order, and ITU def has a pecking order that takes basically years to climb the ladder; but a ladder that is there to make sure the athletes who are racing the top series- should/deserve to be there.


You know if only someone had presented something to IM years, over 10 years ago now, where they structured their races sort of like the ITU does, conti, wc, wts...sigh...so much development potential, so much potential for athletes to build a brand, for IM to build excitement around lower tier athletes getting their shot at a bigger tier race. alas another good idea that went into the circular file.

Even when they had p1500 p2500 (or whatever the numbers were) they were just designations that let everyone know roughly how much and how deep the money went, not a development pathway.

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [desert dude] [ In reply to ]
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I can understand why IM doesn't want to get into the weeds with it's races and create an specific start list procedure, but I think if IM continues to drop lower funded events in favor of basically a series where all the money is going, this problem of "lower pros" affecting WPRO races will only increase. They imo are sorta stuck in the middle of wanting to act like a federation when they need to and it benefits them and then wanting to play ball with others when it benefits them too. To their credit, they are the best out there so they really don't need to do anything different, and this is pretty much "inside baseball" details issue, that is likely very far down on their list of priorities.

(ETA And I'm not saying this badly of IM, they don't want to get into the weeds when it's working like it is now).

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Mar 29, 24 8:41
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]
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IM Pro Series 'Story':
https://proseries.ironman.com/...s-ironman-pro-series
"IRONMAN history is steeped in iconic moments delivered by iconic athletes. Races defined by champions.
"The IRONMAN Pro Series ushers in a new era of IRONMAN racing; athletes don’t have to be first, but they have to be fast and Every Second Matters.
"As the opening race of the inaugural IRONMAN Pro Series approaches, the biggest question on everyone’s lips is who will be crowned the first-ever IRONMAN Pro Series champions and walk away with a USD $200,000 end-of-series bonus?"
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
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Credit to IM for making an easy fix -- their pro calendar now highlights races in green (pro registration open), yellow (nearing capacity, may close prior to date), red (full).
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]
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Is race ranger the limiter for pro field capacity? I didn’t even know they limited fields outside of WC races.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
Is race ranger the limiter for pro field capacity? I didn’t even know they limited fields outside of WC races.
That's what's been suggested (80 M + 40W), and I'm not surprised. The PTO will want to hold 50 sets for Singapore 6 days later: I don't know whether it's a rental or ownership model. Suspect demand has 'literally' outstripped supply: IM didn't buy/announce that it'd use them in its Pro Series races till quite late on, and have been overwhelmed by all the US 'Pros' entering Oceanside.
Knibb will drag them round - let's see how many she chicks - might be more interesting competition than the women well back in her wake.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C5JGx6BLf4W/
Last edited by: Ajax Bay: Mar 31, 24 1:27
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah I don't have a source but that's what has been floated. It also seems to be 120 total & that IM doesn't have a problem trying to get to an equal # of male/female pros. I know there are more male pros but if all the men sign up for a race could we have 110 men & 10 women. Seems like they still need to iron out some details but maybe they don't think it'll be a real problem outside of the early season races
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]
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Went for a swim in Redondo Beach yesterday. Holy shit that water was cold. Hope that it warms up some by next weekend.

Next races on the schedule: none at the moment
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [] [ In reply to ]
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Knibb and Geens ftw. Will Sanders beat Long out of the water? What fun they'll both have trying to pass long trains of men without cutting in and physically avoiding riders pulling out to pass as they attempt to pass (especially on the earlier narrow and bit windy stretches).
Sharpe, Dubrick, Quenet, Angert, Sperl FP swim, with Geens close.
Knibb racing completely on her own, except of course for all the 'Pro' men ahead and behind her at T1 and on the bike course, and any drop back and retakes for the chicked reaction.
Findlay and Langridge should have a gap on EPB and Jewett out of T1 and never be seen again, till on the run.
Jewett will mega-struggle with all the complications of congestion on the bike: EPB has the experience to cope and thrive.
Race ranger: Red flashing light; 5 secs; start the watch, go up and check whether a pass is being attempted; if not: card.
They have arranged for a second shelter at each penalty tent and extra watches.
https://podcasts.apple.com/...ri-news/id1559781865 @ 15:30 they get to Oceanside (after Leiven et al)
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]
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Our preview article is up. https://www.slowtwitch.com/..._Our_Picks_8923.html

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [rrheisler] [ In reply to ]
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Nice write up, it did make me have to look it up to see if Ari Klau was on the start list, and he is not. His 17 hour training weekend parter Simon Shi is (that was a good video and is plugged in the write up). Obviously Klau is still in "development" mode and just got back from his Aussie swim adventure, what within the last month or so, so he's likely not in good racing shape at this moment. **NO i was not thinking he would factor, more just wondered who from the US *isn't* racing**

I would assume all the IM Pro Series races will be near capacity with the prize purse structure now (again didn't realize there was a capacity outside of WC events, but it sounds like it's a race ranger limitation likely this year).

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Apr 1, 24 5:59
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
Nice write up, it did make me have to look it up to see if Ari Klau was on the start list, and he is not. His 17 hour training weekend parter Simon Shi is (that was a good video and is plugged in the write up). Obviously Klau is still in "development" mode and just got back from his Aussie swim adventure, what within the last month or so, so he's likely not in good racing shape at this moment. **NO i was not thinking he would factor, more just wondered who from the US *isn't* racing**

I would assume all the IM Pro Series races will be near capacity with the prize purse structure now (again didn't realize there was a capacity outside of WC events, but it sounds like it's a race ranger limitation likely this year).

Klau said from the beginning of the year he wasn’t doing Oceanside. Debut will be St. George.

Let food be thy medicine...
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [JackStraw13] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah I think, even with the swim focused block, that it makes sense to skip the race with the ocean swim. Wonder why St. George (accurate lake swim) versus 70.3 Chattanooga ("downhill" river swim). Maybe he'll do both but Chattanooga is an IM Pro Series race too.
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [rrheisler] [ In reply to ]
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So well written, and the North American sentiment in David's picks is quite charming.

♂ Lange
♂ Geens
♂ Laundry

(This ain't the T100, where you can come from way back on the bike).

♀ Findlay
♀ Pallant
♀ Knibb

(It's base training time for Knibb, isn't it? Certainly not 70.3 sharpness time. Hope I'm wrong.)

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden
Last edited by: kajet: Apr 1, 24 8:22
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Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [kajet] [ In reply to ]
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(It's base training time for Knibb, isn't it? Certainly not 70.3 sharpness time. Hope I'm wrong.)//

I highly doubt that, she would have been ready to rock Abu Dhabi a couple weeks ago and had some good speed in her legs. If anything, she will be much faster here as the speed vs endurance will have been and will be her main focus. And she has plenty of past fitness to fall back on for the longer race, plus she should be so far ahead that she probably could shut it down. But if she plans on the Ironman series, then probably will race it to the end just to reduce all the point getters behind her, some tough choices for the few trying to do both series..
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