You hit the nail on the head. I have no interest in winning the undercard, much rather take a shot at the big show. It's a 6 or half dozen decision. You can win AG's and they'll ask why you don't race pro. You race pro and they'll ask why you don't win AG's.

AG racing, even at the front, is a bit of a mess compared to pro racing. Staggered starts, limited officiating (hello drafting), a mess of fast swimmers riding 4 wide.

100%

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

Who are you to decide whether they can race pro or not? Clearly they meet Ironman's criteria and that's what counts. If you don't like it, go get a job at Ironman and influence it from inside the org.

Ironman is making opportunities for more pros and this guy wants to bitch about it.

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

Riele here. I have the Oside amateur record and made my pro debut here last year. I sucked and blew up but went for it. I swam front pack and went with Sam Long and Jackson most of the day before blowing up at mile 40 climb, and then limping across the course and ending up on crutches with a hip stress fracture from overtraining.

Healthy and back for some revenge this year... Here are my predictions.

Swim:
- The swim is just as hard as the top 1 or 2 guy's ability in the race. everything trickles down from there. We have Marc Dubrick, Matt Sharpe, and Matt Schafer in the race and it's going to be full gas. The chaos of 80 guys out to the first buoy will be crazy. Definitely excited. Going to get physical and string out. T1 will be a mess, the first 5 miles of the bike will be a mess with drafting, passing, etc. But my prediction is that it's going to be an insanely hot swim, strung out single file, with 30ish guys coming out within 2 minutes of the leader more like ITU style.

- Notables in the front swim pack: Dubrick, Sharpe, Lagerstrom, Geens, Tomas, Angert, Sperl, Quenet, Sharpe, Gillespie, Riele, Schafer, Currie, Lagerstrom, with Laundry right behind. A lot of these dudes can ride well. It was a very similar group at Indian Wells, and we held off Sam the entire bike ride. I don't think that will happen with Sam's current form, and the climbs, but I do predict 1 to 2 "big names" that don't make the front swim group never really being in the race if they can't bridge up to the front group on the Sam Long / Lionel Sanders bike train.

Bike:
You'll then have a TON of bike firepower coming from behind - Sam Long, Lionel, Trevor Foley, Skipper, Lange, Leiferman, Hanson.

Hanson and Lange will need to hang with Long, Lionel, Skipper train to be in the mix for a podium. And it's not clear to me whether Sam and Lionel will be able to bridge up to the massive front swim bike.

Jelle Geens bike power looks to be pretty insane. I've never raced him but he's doing workouts with 2 hours at 300w+ at 140ish pounds with some crazy run numbers. I'm hoping he's cranking the front pack pace and we stay away from everyone chasing from behind for at least 30 miles while dropping the less strong riders.

I think we'll see something similar to last year - Jelle Geens (instead of Leo Bergere) driving the front bike group trying to hold off Sam and Lionel and Skipper (and Lange?) for as long as possible. Attacks getting thrown down when the climbs hit at mile 35, then blowups the last 20 miles. Some guys running through the field (Lange probably racing for a 3rd or a 5th here with a 1:09 run). But the winner IMO will come from the front swim pack (Jelle, Jackson, or Marc IMO) - unless it's Sam Long or Lionel.

Recognizing that there are 10 guys that could run 1:08-1:12 here, we'll definitely see some blowups. Just hope it isn't me (but it definitely could be because I and most other mid packers are here to race for a top 10, not a 15th or a 20th...)

Well, one of those guys used to race in my AG (40-44), and many folks complained that he was too good to race AG despite having a full time job, so he turned pro. He is a 4 hour type of guy, so he has the street cred to race pro.

And here you are, complaining. If they are too good to race AG, you folks complain, if they turn pros..you also complain.

Hanson and Lange will need to hang with Long, Lionel, Skipper train to be in the mix for a podium. And it's not clear to me whether Sam and Lionel will be able to bridge up to the massive front swim bike.//

Some good insight from the middle of the field and the struggling pros perspective. But you do know that Patrick Lange is a front pack swimmer, right? He is not coming out of the water anywhere near Lionel or Sam. But not to say they will not see him on the bike at some point, but he will have a several minute lead to get ready for the onslaught. Good luck and give us a race report as soon as its over.....

I'm super happy to see so many pros racing. The more the better, as we'll see real competition.

I don't know who'll win, but I'm almost sure neither Lange nor Skipper will make a podium. None of them excels early in the season, none of them is a middle distance specialist.

I don't know who'll win, but I'm almost sure neither Lange nor Skipper will make a podium. None of them excels early in the season, none of them is a middle distance specialist.//

You're missing the larger point, dont think either care about any podium, or even top 10. IT is all about the points, so it is time from winner they care about in this race. Sure they plan to shine in the full distance races later on, but this one is just to get maximum points for 1 of their 2 halves they gotta do...

Thanks for the breakdown Justin. Been enjoying your YouTube vids.

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Let food be thy medicine...

in fairness lange is a struggling front pack swimmer usually either one of the last that can hang on or at the lead of the dropped swimmers depending on his form.

i would not bet on geens making the front group either his swim is more like norwegian method level.

this is what i was saying above - lots of good swimmers here, but maybe not enough of the truly "off the front" swimmers to drive a breakaway.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Heh, so does that mean you're going to go for it again? :)

I was excited to see you in the mix on the webcast.

Speaking of webcast... is this year's race going to be streamed on Outside TV? Is there a schedule for which races are going to be streamed?

Edit: Looks like they are streaming this as well as other races again this year.

https://watch.outsideonline.com/live-events

Money will have a great race, and be a great dad on Monday. Luckily he has the pro card so you and I can both sleep easier :)

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http://www.researchms.org/trifest/

Lol, I was actually thinking about another heavy hitter in M40-44 at around the same level. FYI, I have "raced" and shared the podium a few times with some of these guys and I don't really care how much stronger they are, but have a lot of respect when they toe the line against the best in the world and can't complain when they destroy us in AG as they deserve to be there if they want.

I sometimes feel like there could be another category, like elite AG or semi-pro for these AG guys to have a competitive race and also for some neo-pros to have a bit of a stepping stone from like 4:10 level to sub 3:50.

Not a bad idea for Ironman to launch semi pro division that goes off after female pro and is the proving ground for a year before an athlete can go pro. Top AGs within a certain finishing time of pro get promoted to semi pro at end of year. Bottom pros get relegated to semi pro. The kicker for Ironman? These guys pay 50% entry fees rather than a one time annual fee.

Idk about relegation. USAT standards are clear -- hit them & you're a pro. It's ok that not every pro is Magnus Ditlev. It's ok for our sport to have some depth, like every other sport does. Not sure IM could go rogue with their own standards. I think 80/40 pros at Oceanside is exciting. The race is going to accommodate a lot more than that. It's not their fault there aren't as many domestic races to choose from this year. If that's the critique then say that the IM Pro Series is reserved for top-X athletes & pros not in there have to race the non-IM Pro races. But IM doesn't have their own rankings so they would have to default to PTO on that. Regardless, local races often have elite fields for top AGers to start together/compete directly with one another. The rolling starts take some of the racing away for top AGers at IM races. You don't know where you are in a race. I've been there & have been separated by less than 10s in either direction on an AG podium. It's frustrating when your finish times are identical but you never saw each other during the course of a 4hr race. The rolling swim starts are a little chaotic because there's no rules. It's like going to a local 5k & some people right on the start line are going for the win & others want to run out the 1st 400m. I know it's not perfect because swim & finish times are going to be different but I don't see how having corrals based on finish time could help at least establish athletes starting around people with similar skill levels. Some sort of mass start for athletes with some sort of qualifying mark.

Agreed on all this. Cycling has Pro/Cat 1 races with >150 people and there's no issue, they're also racing literally on top of each other. IMO a USACycling Cat 1 license is nearly equivalent to a USATriathlon Pro license, in terms of difficulty to attain.

The issue IM could run into is if pro fields become so large that they are untenable for pro rules racing, but that's closer to 500 people than 100. (In reality they'll quash that issue long beforehand due to losing sticker entry fees on that many people).

I guess the other question from IM's perspective is what benefit do they get from having an elite/semipro field? The participation cohort won't care, if anything they may feel ostracized by being 'third tiered', the current mid-pros will be peeved by not getting to race the big show, and the top AG's will be frustrated by losing once again to mid-field pros. The only people I can see liking that move are a few mid-field pros who want to win the B-race and the true sandbaggers who can now win the C-race.

Makes sense

Like minor and major league baseball

From a practicality standpoint, IM *could* go rouge and create their own standards *if* it wants to. There is current precedent in multisport pro racing that does that- Powerman within duathlon (the IM of duathlon basically). Now I think for the most part, IM knows when to push back and do it's own thing and when to sorta bend the knee to the federation powers. In that sense they basically get whatever they want, they can pretty much pivot off any rules they want to when they want too. But in this instance, I think this is far too much into the weeds than worth their time.

I've been around elite development for 15 years, I've seen all the pro license pathways. At this current time, it's harder *NOW* more than any other time in the sport (in the US especially). I think the biggest issue with LC triathlon is that there is no standards within pro races, except for what the WC's. Every other event you can just "sign up" for and you can race. That's very rare in sports, it's sorta the opposite in ITU. There's hurdles you have to complete before moving to the next level of racing. So in that instance with IM's decisions to basically be a "all comers" for all but what it's World Championships, this is the issue you run into. Now you also need to have some smart people around you, like if your a new pro and you are still competing with a major weakness, just doing Oceanside because you can- that's stupid. Go race events where you can be competitive and grow and development. Just because you can, doesn't mean you always should (but again the rules allow any pro to show up and race regardless if they likely *should* at an event of this caliber).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think that anyone that meets the criteria for getting their pro-card should be welcomed to the race. Its not the world championships and all pro's need opportunities to develop and earn their stripes. I would also be careful of discounting anyone. I have been around the sport long enough to see people come "right out of the blue" with top finishes.

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Michael Hay - helped on the journey by the great folks at ZiZU Optics, (for the custom fit), and Bialkowlski's TRYSPORT

Well M55 is or was the National 3km indoor record holder for indoor track, ran at NAU and is a sub 28min 10k guy but struggled to run the high mileage that most at NAU ran (maybe 1 too many indoor in that sentence but hey it's early). he also tried to race ITU and won some development races, one with a broken seat post. Slowman wrote about him here

M60 is a former national team rider/pro cyclist who has also placed top 5 OV pro's at Oside a long time ago (maybe 3rd iirc) who was beating the F out of amateurs the last few year and still finishing with times in the top 10 OV at 70.3 so decided to race pro again.

M69 was a guy who used to beat the snot of the AG 70.3 fields are well. Poor swimmer really good runner, also typically has a poor bike set up. I once, maybe twice at races pointed out how poorly his bike was set up on IG. used to leave 1-2 minutes on the table just from that, might still, IDK

M41 is a local to Tucson pro. Poor swimmer, solid bike and run. Won't be a factor but would be near the top of the AG field

If any of these 4 raced AG they would be the top seed or one of the top in their AG and let's face it, a lot of age group athletes, maybe the majority, would rather see them race pro instead of AG.


Big props to abundant_pasta_ aka Matt for getting on here and posting a bit about himself. Same with TriSki20 and mathematics. I wish more pros would do that.

Mathematics, Matt and TriSki20, all you guys should put links to your IG or Youtube in your signature line on ST. It's a great way to develop a following and if you're a pro gain a few IG followers which sponsors are currently loving according to the pro's I've bike fit and aero tested this year.

As for my guess I'm betting on Marc the Shark Dubrick in the top 3 after his top 8 finish at 70.3 Worlds. Former XC runner in college, grew up swimming, came for the DL pathway and recently shaved about 20w of drag off his CdA. Will push >300w on the bike and seems to be really fit now.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

I believe the problem lies in the absence of an elite/non pro field at 70.3 races. At many smaller local races across the country, there is an elite wave where the best amateurs go head to head, and not infrequently beat these BOP to MOP pros. There are many "pro" triathletes on that list who have not demonstrated performances significantly better than the best amateurs, and their addition to the start list is not harmless. Having 80 athletes with similar ability at a mass swim start will create massive chaos and potential injury. The bike start is going to be terrible for anyone not in the top 15 out of the swim. Many weak athletes will draft their way to fast bike times. Many strong bikers will expend excessive energy trying to pass and get rid of these weaker athletes. In addition to the A and B listers, two other types of athletes should be let into the pro field. 1. Athletes who have demonstrated world class ability in one of the disciplines, and are reasonably strong in the others, and 2. Athletes who are consistently wrecking the elite/non pro fields that I detailed above. This would take a 70.3 time of around 3:50-3:55 on your standard course, which many of those "pros" have not ever achieved. The field should be capped at 40. That's my two cents.

It's ok for our sport to have some depth, like every other sport does.
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The problem with our sport, compared to other sports, is that the 'depth' don't get paid enough to put food on the table. There's no infrastructure for the BOP pros to earn a living at sport.

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/