ThisIsIt wrote:
wimsey wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
g_lev wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
The talking head on BBC said only a major nation would have the resources to pull this off and that it had to be Russia. Could there be satellite images of boats in the area when it happened?
I guess what I don't get is why blow them up? Don't the Russians control them? Why not just not use them if you want to cut off the gas to Europe?
Talking head was saying it's a typical Putin threat, non-threat that the other new pipeline is at risk, communication cables, etc.
The Russians already shut the pipeline down. They haven't been pumping gas into it for months
Right, so why damage it? Is there some struggle going on between Gazprom and the Russian Govt.? Or it was just some way of threatening Europe and since they aren't using it anyway no skin off their back at the moment?
From a negotiation perspective maybe it makes sense. A working pipeline that is currently shut off but could be turned back on, is a different bargaining chip than a pipeline that is off and will have to stay off until repaired.
I don't know a thing about undersea pipelines, but I would not be surprised if repairs can't be completed until after the winter season...which might reinforce the Russians' hand of trying to use cold weather/high energy prices in Europe as political leverage.
But if the Russians no longer have the option of turning the gas back on, doesn't that remove their bargaining chip?
It changes the nature of the bargaining chip. It certainly seems to reduce their options. But that may be useful to them somehow (if it's sabotage, and done by the Russians). Sort of a double down, "the only way out is to go deeper into the crisis" kind of thinking.
I don't know. It does seem like it would be counterproductive to the Russians. But maybe they don't want to get into a negotiation against the rest of the Western world. Maybe Putin likes to try to present stark options of (1) threaten to use nukes, and/or (2) freezing Western Europe with fewer available options to remedy that cold winter, as a way of trying to raise the stakes and bluff his way out of this.