Well, I assume this is like the Christmas truce on the western front. We'll get back to the shooting shortly.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

If you haven't, watch "Joyeux Noël", French movie about the truce during Xmas in the trenches during WWI.

Wow this POTUS is really serious about lowering gas prices by releasing all that oil from the the SPR!!
Damn 50 million barrels is a lot of oil!!
Unfortunately the US uses 18 million barrels PER DAY
So he’s releasing enough oil to last 2 1/2 days. ??
Please don’t play us Mr. President

Yes. Because delivery from any and all other sources will be stopped completely.
[eyeroll emoji]

What's it like going through life being the dumbest in the room (assuming Barry is not there)?

Well the story I heard on Fox was that all the oil released from the US reserve would end up in India and China. No coincidence this occurred just after his talks with Xi. Biden should be impeached.

Do I win?

I have seen that talking point but have yet to see a valid explanation of what it means.

With US production ramping up rapidly, and refinery capacity getting full, I expect US exports to China to increase. Most Americans would agree that is a good thing.

I'd post a reference to the flat coke thread but I know 2 posters here who would get the vapors about that.

I know you have referenced this several times in this thread. Could you post the links you are using as reference to help us see how this change is occurring and when we can expect to see its effects.

Also, could you share your thoughts on delivery in addition to production. Production is certainly important but we are also seeing supply chain issues related specifically to over the road transport in other areas. Do you anticipate any delivery issues as it relates to oil?

I believe the President has said this will be an issue through the winter and into spring (I think that's what I remember him saying). Is the information you are seeing and referencing going to shorten that time frame?

thanks

Queue up another reactive response from a lifelong politician proving yet again that experience does not equal qualified. You would think, with his touting of experience that he and his cabinet would be proactive. But instead the choice from day one was to close pipelines, lose control over supply, and blame OPEC was the move. Now, the response to try and save face by release the strategic reserves makes you look even worse. Another Biden Botch, yet the sympathizers will find anyway to defend it.

Sure.

The EIA forecasts production will rise to 11.6 million b/d in December. They forecast annual production will average 11.9 million b/d in 2022. For comparison Feb 2019 was 11.6 Million b/d. Feb 2021 was 9.7 Million b/d. Personally I think their forecast is on the low side.

Permian Basin production is expected to hit a record next month

Rig count is up big from last year. US is currently at 563, that is an increase of 253 from last year. Gulf of Mexico production is rebounding from Hurricane Ida.

Most oil in the US is transported via rail so I don't see huge transport issues but refinery capacity is certainly an issue and will affect gas prices.

The long term market is still very uncertain. The futures market is betting on $70 oil. The back end of the oil futures curve indicates traders betting on some scarcity from 2023 onward. Some of that may be due to a strong dollar (oil is priced in dollars).

Your post does not make any sense. Explain how any of Biden's policies affect today's US oil production. Be specific, don't' just parrot talking points you heard on Fox.

 



thank you

Tha vast amount released is high sulfur, which is not helping the constraints on sweet crude. Analysts are projecting this tiny short term fix by Biden will lead to higher prices next year.

Oil Steadies as Global Release of Strategic Reserves Underwhelms https://www.bloomberg.com/...reserves-underwhelms

I'd be curious to know how one goes about verifying that the US actually "released" these barrels from their reserves. And whether anyone is verifying that the other countries we have "coordinated" with have actual followed through and released barrels from their SOR.

I don't think anyone has claimed that this was anything but a small, short term, fix,

It is no surprise there was little immediate reaction. From your link

Quote:

The release of reserves was already priced into the oil markets for weeks, with oil having fallen $10 from its multiyear highs in October.

Interesting that you think prices will be higher next year. That is certainly possible if OPEC continues to restrict supply but the market does not think so. September 2022 Brent Crude is currently trading at $73.45. Brent Crude is currently at $82.09. You could make a tidy profit on that spread.

Personally I think you are right. There is a strong chance crude will be higher than $73 next year, but it will have nothing to do with Biden's policies.

32 million from reserves to possibly start mid December and be released over several months with oil companies taking possession and then returning it after prices have eased, the other 18 million were previously approved for sale and release will be accelerated. However, the market is so underwhelmed that as of this morning WTI price went up $1.01 to $77.76.

Biden Orders Release of U.S. Oil Reserves in Challenge to OPEC+ https://www.bloomberg.com/...may-draw-ire-of-opec

from the article you posted just above

India said it will release 5 million barrels, according to a statement. China didn’t disclose its contribution, but one Western official familiar with the matter said it would be relatively small, in the 7 million-to-15 million barrels range. South Korea said it will decide on details such as volume and timing after discussing with partner countries but indicated it could be about 3.5 million barrels. Japan indicated it would release 5 million barrels or less. The U.K. contribution is expected to be even smaller, the same official said.

edit: so looks like about 25 million combined from the partners. 50 million from the US including about 20 previously approved.

I don't believe any pipelines have been closed yet.

The keystone XL construction was halted but never ran.

Line 5 was shut down temporarily due to anchor damage, and was started again.

Unless I'm missing something

I was basing that on what analysts were saying. OPEC wants the price up of course. They have had plenty of issues over the past few years, with the Khashoggi murder also leaving MBS is a poor diplomatic position, which is probably the main reason Biden wont formally speak with him. They went from $750 billion in reserves to low to mid $400Bs. And the the 2019 event that took out half of the Saudi production. OPEC may restrict to combat the reserves release, and if a battle happens hard to bet against OPEC.

Easy- 2020 Biden ran strongly on 'End new oil and gas leases on federal land and end offshore drilling'. Queue up as the first ding against the US economy where the U.S. was leading in producing oil and natural glass.


From that reduced production or chance of production for domestic supply he followed it up with ending the keystone XL pipeline that could further help reduce the outside factors affecting prices.

Does it not look like he basically punted day 1 in office, torpedoed domestic oil/gas, ended pipeline possibilities, and now is trying to save face by releasing oil reserves after it already got extremely out of control?


Great call Joe, extremely delicate time with supply and demand issues across the board on everything else so lets tank our oil and gas to cause those prices to follow suit with everything else as well. So now what? Oil and gas reserves are off the board, what's next? Gas price mandates? Go against what you can on and bring back leases and drilling? Seems about right.

Am I mostly correct in these numbers I am cobbling togther

US release from reserve 50M
partners release from reserve 25M

total release from reserves 75M

ability of OPEC to produce per day 30M

Yup.

https://www.statista.com/...t-of-opec-countries/

In that case I would not bet against OPEC either.

edit: and that would assume these "releases" from the reserves didn't need to get built back up again at some point (possibly at an even higher price) (not betting against OPEC).

Where did you cut and paste this babble from? None of it is true

Biden paused new leases, not ended. This pause, some of which was for only 90 days, was to study the 100 year old leasing law and give recommendations to Congress. In the end the pause never happened. In fact the Biden administration has been approving leases at the highest rate in over a decade.

Pausing new leases on federal land has minimal affect on oil supply. There is already a backlog of 9,500 approved but unexplored leases and federal land is only 9% of US oil production.

End offshore drilling? Who told you that lie? The Biden administration just put of 80 Million acres in the Gulf for bid.

Keystone was years away and not needed. Gas mandates? What is that? Torpedo oil and gas? Production is up 20% since Biden took office.

You should just admit you have no idea what you are talking about instead of embarrassing yourself posting such drivel