cold turtle wrote:
tri_yoda wrote:
mbeaugard wrote:
How many women (not trying to be sexist) in your life have you seen eat carne asada meat from a food truck, especially the athletic ones. Like half the women I know are vegetarians and of the ones who aren't most of them don't eat pork or beef. Just the idea that she ate this is a little hard to believe. I would like to see a video of her eating such a burrito and watch her reaction to eating it.
I keep seeing people saying this and it frankly makes no sense. Why would she not eat a carne asada burrito? What should an elite athlete who burns thousands more calories a day than the average American be eating?
And because she is a woman she should be a vegan, what kind of sense does that make?
I am not saying she should be a vegan because she is woman. I am saying in my experience, women are much more likely to be vegetarians and/or not eat beef and/or pork. I am saying I find the probability of this scenario to be low.
I am also saying that this proposed burrito sounds kind of disgusting and unhealthy (and I like burritos), so the idea that this elite world class athlete was putting something like this into her body just isn't the easiest thing to believe (not impossible, but sounds unlikely, very low odds on any given day that this happens). Was she regularly eating stuff like this (I think unlikely) or again, are we supposed to believe this incredibly bad luck, the very rare time that she cheats/splurges from the high performance, nutritionally controlled diet (that would be the normal expectation for a world class athlete in T&F) just happens to coincide with this drug test. And of all the things that could have been in the burrito, it just happened to be this one very obscure and unusual thing (pig offal, from an uncastrated boar) that provides cover for the positive test.
I am saying look at the total chain of unlikely events that had to happen to get here and ask yourself what is more likely, this chain of low probability events of she was doping
1. World class athlete eats really bad junk food. (not zero probability, but very low). I'll put this at 1/30, I'm sorry but if you are trying to win Olympic medals, you aren't eating greasy food truck meat burritos very often. This seems like an extreme splurge, way more than say drinking a coke or having an ice cream.
2. Junk food happens to have very obscure kind of meat in it. (not zero probability, but very low), I would put this at 1/100 for numerous reasons, including I think this is very non-standard meat. She could of had a veggie burrito, chicken burrito, fish burrito, so I may be overestimating the probability, first she had to get the pork burrito, then it had to be not just any pork burrito, but the one with the very special kind of pork meat.
3. Drug test occurs (again, I can't think these would happen any more often than monthly, so 1/30 chance)
I get a 1/90,000 chance of all three events happening concurrently. Please, challenge my numbers, tell me where my probability estimates are way off-base?
And again, low probability events can still occur (my 1/90,000 odds does not mean she is guilty, but it's my way of deciding what is the most likely situation)