No disagreement.

But a record number of voters turned out to vote to trump last year. The Dems just did a better job of getting out the voters. And the anti-trump sentiment was strong.

So the question becomes, can either group increase the number of non voters or minimally sustain the voting of levels 2020 in an off year election?

As a wise man pointed out earlier- they stand for nothing, have no platform, and live on faux (fox) outrage.

I don't see a future for a party with no rudder and a twitterless and impotent captain living in exile in Mar-a-Lago while letting fuckwits like Cruz, McCarthy, Gaetz, MTG, Nunes, Fucker Carlson, etc take the wheel. But here we are with near equality in the house and senate.

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Suffer Well.

The gop doesn’t need to gain voters. They just need to restrict others from voting. (On top of gerrymandering).

Which is why there is such an uproar about the new voting laws that make it harder to vote (after there were no impactful showings of voter fraud in 2020 that should have led to easier voting).

After every presidential election I can remember , the losing party has done some form of self reflection of where they went wrong. The current gop did not do this. And is part of the major issues with the current gop. They have no interest in gaining voters.

And look at the states that gained house seats based on the 2020 Census and those that lost them. The GOP is already ahead of the game even prior to re-districting.

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Suffer Well.

It isn't like the states that lost seats are guaranteed to lose a Democratic seat. They will gerrymander the shit out of their districts too. CO and OR also gained seats.

My point was that it isn't a sure thing that the GOP takes back Congress. They are doing everything they can to make it so they are out of power for a long time. I could hardly ask them to do more. People are leaving the GOP, and not just casual Republicans. When you see the polls showing 70% of Republicans think Biden didn't actually win, remember that is 70% of people who still self-identify as Republicans, that is a shrinking and ever crazier cohort.

The GOP has to defend 20 Senate seats to the Democrats 14. And 4 of the Republicans have already announced they are retiring with no Democrats retiring that I see.

We will see. The Democrats definitely underperformed in Congressional races in '20. So of course they have plenty of time and certainly have the ability to fuck it up. It has only been 3.5 months, give them time. But so far I give them the advantage heading into '22.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Agree with much of what you say. I don't think that it is a sure thing the GOP takes back Congress, even with a stacked deck.

However, I recognize how narrow the Dems victories were in 2020, the unique anti-trump sentiment in that election, the changing of house seats due the Census and re-districting in 2022 and beyond, and historical congressional seat loses in off year elections for the party of the current President.

The Dems need to continue to work their asses off if they want to hold the majority they earned in 2020 given all of that.

And yes, the Reps are helping them, but is that enough? I don't know.

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Suffer Well.

My only real response was based on this comment "But for the GOP to get back in control they need to gain voters. Not just keep the ones they have."

They dont need to gain voters. Their plan isnt to gain voters.

The GOP has done ZERO - ZERO outreach to expand their base.

Replying to last.

Going into 2020 there was a lot of talk that Trump would have won if not for the pandemic because the economy was doing so well prior.

Under Biden the economy is doing better, retirement accounts are cruising along, the markets are hitting all-time highs (talk that there would be an immediate Biden-depression is proving to be laughable).

He promised 100 million shots in arms in 100 days. There actually were about 220 million, and every day it gets easier to get vaccinated. Kids will be back in school. We will be back to sporting events and concerts. The pandemic could be long gone in the rear view mirror.

Money has been spent to better the lives of all of the American people, not just the top 1%. Most Americans approve of the Covid relief, and of doing something on infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the GOP is a shit show with no apparent plans or policies. Many of the high profile members of the party will likely be indicted. Others are obviously Q-anon wackos. Trump himself is facing an ever mounting number of legal problems, both criminal and civil. The ads against GOP members who supported the Big Lie and the January 6th coup attempt will write themselves. The images will be horrible, and they will be tied to the faces of each GOP member who tried to block the certification of the vote.

Someone is going to have to do a lot of work to convince me that the Republicans are poised to do well, other than for issues of voter suppression, gerrymandering, and perhaps voter apathy.

I've thought about the "but my 401(k)" crowd that was very vocal from 2017-2019, lately and want to ask them- how's your 401(k) doing now?

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Suffer Well.

But also remember 2020 also brought out a LOT of DJ fanatics. Fanatics adore pointing out that DJ got the most votes ever. Over 13 million more than in 16. Never mind that the vote percentages were almost unchanged (46.1% in 16 vs 46.9%), but that was a lot of R fanatics voting in "lower" races.

There is a path R take the house but I don't think there's a way for them to retake the senate until at least 24.

And you've got to look at where the new house seats will be. People aren't moving to Steve's area, they are moving to DFW, Houston, Austin, Charlotte. They are making the blue dots in the sea of red bigger. It comes down to how aggressive states can gerrymander

At this point, there should be more ranked choice voting within the states.

Texas at this point is around 52 percent gop. 46. Democrats. However out of the 36 seats 22 are gop (60%).

Also because of gerrymandering we get crazies on both sides (gohmert, Crenshaw, Ronny jackson vs. shiela jackson)

New developments ...

https://www.cnn.com/...att-gaetz/index.html

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How is he still a congressional representative?

Monday, Monday (bah-da bah-da-da-da)
So good to me (bah-da bah-da-da-da)
Monday mornin', it was all I hoped it would be

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Great question. He is a full on GQP member, so that might have something to do with it.

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Suffer Well.

Ah, ain't the repub party simply beautiful?

Al Franken has some bad jokes like 40 years ago, and he's gone.

But Gaetz pays to have sex with trafficked minors, and he'll likely get a promotion.

'Merica !!

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I think it's acceptable, given the Constitutional mechanisms for removing a Congressman, to wait for a full presentation of evidence before calling a vote. Due process, etc.

Why he hasn't been stripped of his Committee assignments during that due process is beyond me. To let him focus on his defense, etc.

The allegations covered far more than just bad jokes.

Did not know that.

In any case, he likely wasn't having paid sex with minors like Gaetz likely was.

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The GOP has been too busy dealing with Liz Cheney telling the truth to deal with Gaetz

In fairness, when your party is running on lies having someone tell the truth is a much bigger deal than some fake news about Gaetz amirite?

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

His buddie is begging for a 5k1.1 motion

Uh sure, but what is that?

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“Greenberg started speaking with investigators when he realized it was his only path to leniency in the face of considerable evidence against him . . .”

https://guidelines.ussc.gov/gl/§5K1.1 (bad link, so)

§5K1.1 - SUBSTANTIAL ASSISTANCE TO AUTHORITIES (POLICY STATEMENT)
Upon motion of the government stating that the defendant has provided substantial assistance in the investigation or prosecution of another person who has committed an offense, the court may depart from the guidelines.

(a) The appropriate reduction shall be determined by the court for reasons stated that may include, but are not limited to, consideration of the following:

(1) the court’s evaluation of the significance and usefulness of the defendant’s assistance, taking into consideration the government’s evaluation of the assistance rendered;
(2) the truthfulness, completeness, and reliability of any information or testimony provided by the defendant;
(3) the nature and extent of the defendant’s assistance;
(4) any injury suffered, or any danger or risk of injury to the defendant or his family resulting from his assistance;
(5) the timeliness of the defendant’s assistance.

A lenient sentence for his assistance in taking down Gaetz.

Or as a Trumper would say, THIS IS SUCH A WITCH HUNT!!! HE'S OBVIOUSLY LYING JUST TO SAVE HIMSELF!!!

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

He's probably a Hillary-Antifa plant trying to take down Gaetz.

Which would only be fair play because apparently Trump-promoting group had plans to undermine the U.S. National Security Advisor (McMaster) and others.