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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
Oh wait, I think we did all those things to "Blunt the curve" as we were told back in March and it did not "stop the spread" 5 weeks turned into months on end.

We didn't do those things, though. We did lock-down light. I'm not advocating that we do the Real Thing, at this point. I think we're far too gone for it to work anymore. It works best, is my understanding, early on.

Just bringing up, that, no, we in the U.S. never attempted anything close to a true hardcore lockdown.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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No, we didn’t do a total lockdown in March. Let’s remember our recent history. At the end of February, Trump was saying it would disappear like a miracle. On March 4, he said the flu was worse. On March 24, Trump said it would be gone by Easter.

We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:

Will the information about mutations enter the thinking and mean anything to the people who currently want to let Covid freely move through society?


This isn't my position, just bringing up the point.

My understanding is that the general trend of a rapidly mutating virus that's allowed to freely spread is that it will trend towards lower lethality. Just because less-lethal strains have more opportunity to spread themselves more efficiently. So COVID would trend towards becoming something like the common cold.

I don't know how long that would take, but I'm guessing unacceptably long given the alternative paths we could take. And it's also true that though lower lethality would be the trend, it doesn't mean there couldn't be more-lethal strains that pop up along the way.

Yes, I believe we will start with getting everyone vaccinated with the initial vaccinations, and then after that there will be new vaccines developed that target specifically other variants. The elderly and more vulnerable will be vaccinated with these too, and then the rest of us over time. The R0 of the virus will fall notably once most of us are vaccinated with the initial vaccine, but we may still need to be vaccinated each year for other variants, a bit like flu vaccinations. But it's important to minimize the prevalence of the new variants as much as possible while the initial vaccination process is undertaken. Sadly, we may be a little late on that.

Israel is the country to watch. Unfortunately they still have a high hospitalization rate, but hopefully if that falls in the next 2-3 weeks, it will be a good sign.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
SDG wrote:
Oh wait, I think we did all those things to "Blunt the curve" as we were told back in March and it did not "stop the spread" 5 weeks turned into months on end.


We didn't do those things, though. We did lock-down light. I'm not advocating that we do the Real Thing, at this point. I think we're far too gone for it to work anymore. It works best, is my understanding, early on.

Just bringing up, that, no, we in the U.S. never attempted anything close to a true hardcore lockdown.

If what CALL stated is a hard core lockdown, then yes, at least in my area (Houston) we did do a hard core lockdown. Shelter in place, no indoor dining, everyone work from home, everything closed except grocery stores. Not sure what else you would want.

Maybe they didnt' do that in your area, but in mine they sure did. And I am in Texas. I can only think places like Cali, Chicago and NYC were much more locked down.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:

If what CALL stated is a hard core lockdown, then yes, at least in my area (Houston) we did do a hard core lockdown.


No you didn't. Maybe you, personally did. Houston did not.
Last edited by: trail: Jan 29, 21 9:01
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:
Just to be clear, total lockdown means individuals stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Intercity travel within affected areas would cease. Governments would provide economic and social aid to citizens who need it. It would take 5 weeks for this to stop Covid.



this is perhaps the silliest things I have ever read on this site. If 5 weeks is all, then hell, lets jump in. Oh wait, I think we did all those things to "Blunt the curve" as we were told back in March and it did not "stop the spread" 5 weeks turned into months on end.

to be clear what you are suggesting as lockdown was done in my city, and with me and my family when this started. Grocery store trips for food, essential work only, work from home and doctor visits. Where were you in March 2020?

That is completely fanciful and wishful thinking.

If what you suggest would really stop it completely in five weeks, I will sign on. Send your suggestion to Biden and lets see if he and Fauci believe that will get it done.


I have a friend in Lisbon, Portugal. She can go for a short walk outside her home, but has to carry ID with proof of address to show she is not too far from home. Many countries have imposed close to the kinds of restrictions described above. Obviously selfish Americans would never stand for that though. You know, coz "Freedom!"



That is insane and frankly, yes Freedom over that any day. Just imagine the mental illness, suicide, isolation, weight gain and all kinds of problems that will plague those people for years that have been subjected to those conditions. Hopefully its not that long and they are allowed to live again soon.

by the way that's a little odd you mentioned Portugal. I have friend of a friend whose son is playing pro soccer in Portugal and they are still playing games ( had one last week) so I guess the rules are being enforced differently depending on who you are. That would bug the hell out of me as well.
Last edited by: SDG: Jan 29, 21 9:05
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
SDG wrote:

If what CALL stated is a hard core lockdown, then yes, at least in my area (Houston) we did do a hard core lockdown.


No you didn't. Maybe you, personally did. Houston did not.

True, I can't speak for everyone in Houston, but that is what I saw for the first two months. It didn't do much good.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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As others have said, our spring lockdown was only a partial lockdown. It was actually pretty successful in the northeast, but then other parts of the country re-opened too soon in April (GA, FL and TX notably). Remember the "Liberate Michigan!" tweets?

That early reopening was one of the biggest mistakes we made as a country, along with not shutting air travel down in February, or at least insisting on strict quarantine measures for any international arrivals.

You're right though, we are not going to go into another strict lockdown. American's don't have the stomach for it. But there is another way. We could all have at home rapid antigen test kits, and the R0 would fall by 80% if we all tested ourselves twice a week. I'm still at a loss why we don't. Speak to many college students and they'll tell you how they're being tested twice a week. Why not all of us?
----------

"When it came to curbing spread, they found that frequency and turnaround time are much more important than test sensitivity.
For instance, in one scenario in a large city, widespread twice-weekly testing with a rapid but less sensitive test reduced the degree of infectiousness, or R0 (“R naught”), of the virus by 80%. But twice-weekly testing with a more sensitive PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, which takes up to 48 hours to return results, reduced infectiousness by only 58%. In other scenarios, when the amount of testing was the same, the rapid test always reduced infectiousness better than the slower, more sensitive PCR test.
That’s because about two-thirds of infected people have no symptoms and as they await their results, they continue to spread the virus."

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/...9-tide-within-weeks/




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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
No, we didn’t do a total lockdown in March. Let’s remember our recent history. At the end of February, Trump was saying it would disappear like a miracle. On March 4, he said the flu was worse. On March 24, Trump said it would be gone by Easter.

We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?

Again, everything is not black and white. You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely. My experience, that is no where near accurate. I know a lot of trump voters first time around and second. All of them took COVID seriously and locked down when asked to in March. Hell, my extended is hardcore Trump voters and they are more extreme in locking down than many on this forum. They haven't left the house much since March and now have gotten both vaccines. They still claim they won't leave or go out much until safer in their mind. And they rail against Biden, think the election was stolen and want Biden gone ASAP.

People are not as easy to define as you seem to suggest. Probably something to consider. In my circle of life, we all locked down in March. YMMV in your own area.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
As others have said, our spring lockdown was only a partial lockdown. It was actually pretty successful in the northeast, but then other parts of the country re-opened too soon in April (GA, FL and TX notably). Remember the "Liberate Michigan!" tweets?

That early reopening was one of the biggest mistakes we made as a country, along with not shutting air travel down in February, or at least insisting on strict quarantine measures for any international arrivals.

You're right though, we are not going to go into another strict lockdown. American's don't have the stomach for it. But there is another way. We could all have at home rapid antigen test kits, and the R0 would fall by 80% if we all tested ourselves twice a week. I'm still at a loss why we don't. Speak to many college students and they'll tell you how they're being tested twice a week. Why not all of us?
----------

"When it came to curbing spread, they found that frequency and turnaround time are much more important than test sensitivity.
For instance, in one scenario in a large city, widespread twice-weekly testing with a rapid but less sensitive test reduced the degree of infectiousness, or R0 (“R naught”), of the virus by 80%. But twice-weekly testing with a more sensitive PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, which takes up to 48 hours to return results, reduced infectiousness by only 58%. In other scenarios, when the amount of testing was the same, the rapid test always reduced infectiousness better than the slower, more sensitive PCR test.
That’s because about two-thirds of infected people have no symptoms and as they await their results, they continue to spread the virus."

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/...9-tide-within-weeks/





CALL says it would only take five weeks of that kind of lockdown and we would be done, magically. I like that idea if I trusted that at ALL. I don't.

I agree on your testing plan. I have a kid in college sports and he is tested 2 times a week. We should do that for everyone that is does not want to isolate and wants to live semi normally.

Biden is dropping the ball.
Last edited by: SDG: Jan 29, 21 9:14
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:
We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?


You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely. My experience, that is no where near accurate.

You might want to re-read what she wrote.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:

We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?


You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely. My experience, that is no where near accurate.


You might want to re-read what she wrote.

She spelled out Trumps bluster and dumb comments on COVID. Then suggested 74 million voted for him. Then asked how many of those 74 took COViD seriously. I think I read it just fine.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
I agree on your testing plan. I have a kid in college sports and he is tested 2 times a week. We should do that for everyone that is does not want to isolate and wants to live semi normally.

Biden is dropping the ball.

You may be right that Biden is dropping the ball, though he has allocated significant funds to increase testing. We'll have to see what that means in effect.

Side note: my spouse recently went to a local medical center for a test because of "sniffles," just to be sure. Various members of our family have been tested in recent months, and never cost any money. But yesterday we just got a bill for the last test for $274 for a doctor's consult (plus a small fee for the actual test). Fucking outrageous. We're fighting it. There was no consult. This country is so fucked up in terms of healthcare.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
SDG wrote:

I agree on your testing plan. I have a kid in college sports and he is tested 2 times a week. We should do that for everyone that is does not want to isolate and wants to live semi normally.

Biden is dropping the ball.


. There was no consult. This country is so fucked up in terms of healthcare.


No argument there. That has to change.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG - "If what CALL stated is a hard core lockdown, then yes, at least in my area (Houston)we did do a hard core lockdown. "

SDG - "True, I can't speak for everyone in Houston, but that is what I saw for the first two months. It didn't do much
good."

Also SDG in this same thread " I am in favor of open businesses, free travel, parties, events, group gatherings and all the rest and have been doing it all since March."

Which one of these is the truth?
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:

We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?


You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely. My experience, that is no where near accurate.


You might want to re-read what she wrote.


She spelled out Trumps bluster and dumb comments on COVID. Then suggested 74 million voted for him. Then asked how many of those 74 took COViD seriously. I think I read it just fine.

Yes, she "Then asked how many of those 74 took COViD seriously."

You didn't answer her question. Instead you accused her of: "You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely."

So no, you don't read "just fine" apparently.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
SDG wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:

We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?


You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely. My experience, that is no where near accurate.


You might want to re-read what she wrote.


She spelled out Trumps bluster and dumb comments on COVID. Then suggested 74 million voted for him. Then asked how many of those 74 took COViD seriously. I think I read it just fine.


Yes, she "Then asked how many of those 74 took COViD seriously."

You didn't answer her question. Instead you accused her of: "You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely."

So no, you don't read "just fine" apparently.


sometime people ask rhetorical questions to make an argument. See what she did there?
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:


Remember that Covid won’t mutate if there aren’t infections. So, mutation is not inevitable. Mutations occur after we fail to stop infections. If everyone stays in their homes for a year, we won’t have mutations and doctors won’t be playing whack-a-mole. That’s an unrealistic, extreme argument.

This is not true. Humans are not the only vectors for Covid. Animals have been shown to have it as well and unless you plan to quarantine them too, covid will have places to do its thing. You are not eradicating the corona virus. There will just be peaks and valleys.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [sonofdad] [ In reply to ]
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sonofdad wrote:

SDG - "If what CALL stated is a hard core lockdown, then yes, at least in my area (Houston)we did do a hard core lockdown. "

SDG - "True, I can't speak for everyone in Houston, but that is what I saw for the first two months. It didn't do much
good."

Also SDG in this same thread " I am in favor of open businesses, free travel, parties, events, group gatherings and all the rest and have been doing it all since March."

Which one of these is the truth?

March hard core lockdown going into April. Things open up more there. Definitely going out to businesses as soon as they were opened. Event's parties, group gatherings more in April ( Hello Easter). Although if I remember correctly, I think my Trump loving family put a stop to that gathering. Someone might remind me.

If Five weeks is the standard to get rid of it now ( SEE CALL) , I would be willing to do it again for five weeks if it gets rid of COVID completely.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
SDG wrote:

I agree on your testing plan. I have a kid in college sports and he is tested 2 times a week. We should do that for everyone that is does not want to isolate and wants to live semi normally.

Biden is dropping the ball.


. There was no consult. This country is so fucked up in terms of healthcare.



No argument there. That has to change.

This would be a good thread topic. I think we all agree, just don't agree on the solution. Govt run health care would just shift who gets Kay's charge and would possibly make it more common to just charge the govt for anything with little oversight. If we could actually control HC costs then a govt option would make sense and be reasonable. But as long as HC and drug companies charge X times more than they do everywhere else in the world, it is cost prohibitive.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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So, none of the quotes are true?

"I keep hoping for you to use your superior intellect to be less insufferable. Sadly, you continue to disappoint." - gofigure
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [sonofdad] [ In reply to ]
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sonofdad wrote:
So, none of the quotes are true?

No, they are all accurate with the exception my moving around came a little later than I previously stated. It started more in late April, about two months after shelter in place orders.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:
No, we didn’t do a total lockdown in March. Let’s remember our recent history. At the end of February, Trump was saying it would disappear like a miracle. On March 4, he said the flu was worse. On March 24, Trump said it would be gone by Easter.

We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?

Again, everything is not black and white. You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely. My experience, that is no where near accurate. I know a lot of trump voters first time around and second. All of them took COVID seriously and locked down when asked to in March. Hell, my extended is hardcore Trump voters and they are more extreme in locking down than many on this forum. They haven't left the house much since March and now have gotten both vaccines. They still claim they won't leave or go out much until safer in their mind. And they rail against Biden, think the election was stolen and want Biden gone ASAP.

People are not as easy to define as you seem to suggest. Probably something to consider. In my circle of life, we all locked down in March. YMMV in your own area.

I asked you to estimate how many of Trump’s 74 million voters complied with lockdown rules. I didn’t say they all blew off all recommendations. I simply asked you a question.

I think you’re misreading my posts.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
sonofdad wrote:

SDG - "If what CALL stated is a hard core lockdown, then yes, at least in my area (Houston)we did do a hard core lockdown. "

SDG - "True, I can't speak for everyone in Houston, but that is what I saw for the first two months. It didn't do much
good."

Also SDG in this same thread " I am in favor of open businesses, free travel, parties, events, group gatherings and all the rest and have been doing it all since March."

Which one of these is the truth?

March hard core lockdown going into April. Things open up more there. Definitely going out to businesses as soon as they were opened. Event's parties, group gatherings more in April ( Hello Easter). Although if I remember correctly, I think my Trump loving family put a stop to that gathering. Someone might remind me.

If Five weeks is the standard to get rid of it now ( SEE CALL) , I would be willing to do it again for five weeks if it gets rid of COVID completely.

Yeah, We get it. Nobody is disputing that you've been behaving like selfish, spoiled twat for almost a year.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:
No, we didn’t do a total lockdown in March. Let’s remember our recent history. At the end of February, Trump was saying it would disappear like a miracle. On March 4, he said the flu was worse. On March 24, Trump said it would be gone by Easter.

We know 74 million Americans listen to Trump. How many of those people do you estimate were doing a “total lockdown” in March?


Again, everything is not black and white. You lump 74 million trump voters in the pool of people that blew off COVID completely. My experience, that is no where near accurate. I know a lot of trump voters first time around and second. All of them took COVID seriously and locked down when asked to in March. Hell, my extended is hardcore Trump voters and they are more extreme in locking down than many on this forum. They haven't left the house much since March and now have gotten both vaccines. They still claim they won't leave or go out much until safer in their mind. And they rail against Biden, think the election was stolen and want Biden gone ASAP.

People are not as easy to define as you seem to suggest. Probably something to consider. In my circle of life, we all locked down in March. YMMV in your own area.




I asked you to estimate how many of Trump’s 74 million voters complied with lockdown rules. I didn’t say they all blew off all recommendations. I simply asked you a question.

I think you’re misreading my posts.

Why didn't you ask how many of all voters in the entire country complied with the rules? you were making the argument Trump supporters were flaunting the rules.

Maybe I am misreading. If you argument was not that 74 million voters that voted for Trump were more likely to blow off COVID because of dumb things he said, then I stand corrected.

Are you really asking me how many people out of a pool of 74 million complied with Covid lockdowns and shelter in place? I am not god and nor am I omiscient. The folks I know in Houston complied with the rules I was aware of. No clue on the other 73,999,732.
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