trail wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:
Will the information about mutations enter the thinking and mean anything to the people who currently want to let Covid freely move through society?
This isn't my position, just bringing up the point.
My understanding is that the general trend of a rapidly mutating virus that's allowed to freely spread is that it will trend towards lower lethality. Just because less-lethal strains have more opportunity to spread themselves more efficiently. So COVID would trend towards becoming something like the common cold.
I don't know how long that would take, but I'm guessing unacceptably long given the alternative paths we could take. And it's also true that though lower lethality would be the trend, it doesn't mean there couldn't be more-lethal strains that pop up along the way.
Yes, I believe we will start with getting everyone vaccinated with the initial vaccinations, and then after that there will be new vaccines developed that target specifically other variants. The elderly and more vulnerable will be vaccinated with these too, and then the rest of us over time. The R0 of the virus will fall notably once most of us are vaccinated with the initial vaccine, but we may still need to be vaccinated each year for other variants, a bit like flu vaccinations. But it's important to minimize the prevalence of the new variants as much as possible while the initial vaccination process is undertaken. Sadly, we may be a little late on that.
Israel is the country to watch. Unfortunately they still have a high hospitalization rate, but hopefully if that falls in the next 2-3 weeks, it will be a good sign.