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Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations
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I’m wondering if the herd immunity proponents have changed their minds about the strategy of rushing to herd immunity given the numerous mutations that we’re seeing around globe.

If every new infection increases the risk of mutations, then how will we ever stop the pandemic? It has the potential to keep mutating ahead of immunity. We’ll be chasing herd immunity forever unless we stop infections.

So, what’s our strategy?
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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Strategy?

You're saying there was a strategy...?

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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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Herd Immunity is everyone's strategy. Herd immunity is the concept of getting enough vaccines into people who can take vaccines to stop the spread of protect those who can't take vaccines (like people who are immuno compromised). There was a radical strategy early on about creating a similar condition by just getting everyone sick, but that isn't the strategy that we are following now.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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Whenever I mentioned the possibility reinfection or mutation in regards to herd immunity I was always met with silence. I put herd immunity in the same class as anti-vaxxers. People who know very little about infectious disease opening their fat mouth.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [FishyJoe] [ In reply to ]
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FishyJoe wrote:
Whenever I mentioned the possibility reinfection or mutation in regards to herd immunity I was always met with silence. I put herd immunity in the same class as anti-vaxxers. People who know very little about infectious disease opening their fat mouth.

The big problem, l think, is not the people who don't know anything about infectious disease. The big problem is that a huge number of Americans are being subjected to enormous amounts of intentional right wing wack job repub fox news disinformation.

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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [DarkSpeedWorks] [ In reply to ]
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DarkSpeedWorks wrote:
FishyJoe wrote:
Whenever I mentioned the possibility reinfection or mutation in regards to herd immunity I was always met with silence. I put herd immunity in the same class as anti-vaxxers. People who know very little about infectious disease opening their fat mouth.


The big problem, l think, is not the people who don't know anything about infectious disease. The big problem is that a huge number of Americans are being subjected to enormous amounts of intentional right wing wack job repub fox news disinformation.

And Facebook.

Facebook has weaponized stupidity
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [torrey] [ In reply to ]
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torrey wrote:
Herd Immunity is everyone's strategy. Herd immunity is the concept of getting enough vaccines into people who can take vaccines to stop the spread of protect those who can't take vaccines (like people who are immuno compromised). There was a radical strategy early on about creating a similar condition by just getting everyone sick, but that isn't the strategy that we are following now.

I used the term “herd immunity” incorrectly. I wanted to describe the laissez-faire, non-preventative attitude that promotes opening all businesses, throwing away masks because they aren’t 100% effective, allowing gatherings and travel and super-spreader events, and letting Covid run rampant. It’s the let-nature-run-it’s-course crowd.

I’m not talking about the herd immunity that is achieved through reducing infections through masks, distancing, restrictions on activities + vaccines.

Maybe we need a new name for the laissez-faire approach?
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [FishyJoe] [ In reply to ]
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FishyJoe wrote:
Whenever I mentioned the possibility reinfection or mutation in regards to herd immunity I was always met with silence. I put herd immunity in the same class as anti-vaxxers. People who know very little about infectious disease opening their fat mouth.

I’m not sure those people hear or think about mutations. Their attention is caught up elsewhere.

Will the information about mutations enter the thinking and mean anything to the people who currently want to let Covid freely move through society?
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [torrey] [ In reply to ]
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torrey wrote:
Herd Immunity is everyone's strategy. Herd immunity is the concept of getting enough vaccines into people who can take vaccines to stop the spread of protect those who can't take vaccines (like people who are immuno compromised). There was a radical strategy early on about creating a similar condition by just getting everyone sick, but that isn't the strategy that we are following now.

I'll come right out and say that I know nothing about infectious disease. Now with that out of the way....

The current vaccinations only minimize symptoms and severity of Covid, so I'm told. I have also read that you can still spread it and must maintain social distancing and mask usage.

If that's true, can a true herd immunity ever be reached?
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [svennn] [ In reply to ]
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svennn wrote:
torrey wrote:
Herd Immunity is everyone's strategy. Herd immunity is the concept of getting enough vaccines into people who can take vaccines to stop the spread of protect those who can't take vaccines (like people who are immuno compromised). There was a radical strategy early on about creating a similar condition by just getting everyone sick, but that isn't the strategy that we are following now.


I'll come right out and say that I know nothing about infectious disease. Now with that out of the way....

The current vaccinations only minimize symptoms and severity of Covid, so I'm told. I have also read that you can still spread it and must maintain social distancing and mask usage.

If that's true, can a true herd immunity ever be reached?

It hasn't been proven that you can't spread it after getting the vaccine. That's different from saying you can still spread it. It stands to reason if your body is fighting and killing the virus rather than exponentially replicating it, you will be less infectious. We just don't know at this point so experts aren't going to declare that you can't spread it.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [Thom] [ In reply to ]
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Thom wrote:

It hasn't been proven that you can't spread it after getting the vaccine. That's different from saying you can still spread it. It stands to reason if your body is fighting and killing the virus rather than exponentially replicating it, you will be less infectious. We just don't know at this point so experts aren't going to declare that you can't spread it.

Got it.

Better safe than sorry......
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
Maybe we need a new name for the laissez-faire approach?

Idiotitis?

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
torrey wrote:
Herd Immunity is everyone's strategy. Herd immunity is the concept of getting enough vaccines into people who can take vaccines to stop the spread of protect those who can't take vaccines (like people who are immuno compromised). There was a radical strategy early on about creating a similar condition by just getting everyone sick, but that isn't the strategy that we are following now.


I used the term “herd immunity” incorrectly. I wanted to describe the laissez-faire, non-preventative attitude that promotes opening all businesses, throwing away masks because they aren’t 100% effective, allowing gatherings and travel and super-spreader events, and letting Covid run rampant. It’s the let-nature-run-it’s-course crowd.

I’m not talking about the herd immunity that is achieved through reducing infections through masks, distancing, restrictions on activities + vaccines.

Maybe we need a new name for the laissez-faire approach?


You are being all or nothing on your assumptions. I am in favor of open businesses, free travel, parties, events, group gatherings and all the rest and have been doing it all since March. Myself and no one in family has had COVID. I am also in favor of wearing masks 100% of the time in public if you can't stay more than 6 feet from someone, washing hands and being aware of your surroundings.

You can get on with life and take reasonable precautions. If your solution, or anyone's solution, is total lockdown, then no thanks. Add to the fact that has shown not to be the total solution some think. Compare Florida and California.

I agree with President Biden and think no matter what we do, its going to get worse before it gets better and there is little we can do to change the trajectory. (Kay had some good ideas but it seems Biden is not following those either) If we started testing like crazy and isolating positives perhaps, but Biden did not seem very encouraging on the course it will take.

Take reasonable safety measures (masks and social distancing) get the vaccine if you want to, but live your life.

I have seen some writing this disease is not going anywhere ever no matter how many we get vaccinated. We can't keep social isolation and business closed up forever. I feel for the people who have lost an entire year sitting in their homes, ordering take out, staying away from society.

If the disease is indeed mutating, all the more reason we can't keep this up forever. We can't have doctors playing whack a mole with vaccines while the entire world sits in their homes for years and everyone is on government assistance.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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The concept of herd immunity is irrelevant, in case of rapidly mutating virus. And yes, you are absolutely right, we will be forever chasing herd immunity, if the virus keeps producing new strains as it spreads further. I personally believe that the vaccination drive is the only viable solution in a realistic perspective. I have read that the new vaccines are effective against both the old and new variants of the virus (particularly the UK variant).

Education is what Liberates the Mind - https://eduhelphub.com/
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [svennn] [ In reply to ]
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svennn wrote:
Thom wrote:


It hasn't been proven that you can't spread it after getting the vaccine. That's different from saying you can still spread it. It stands to reason if your body is fighting and killing the virus rather than exponentially replicating it, you will be less infectious. We just don't know at this point so experts aren't going to declare that you can't spread it.


Got it.

Better safe than sorry......
Just to add to what Thom said, they haven't proved a reduction in transmission, but there is no reason to expect it won't act like other viral vaccines. The majority of articles I have read say they expect at a minimum a reduction in transmission and likely almost a full elimination. But since it isn't proven, those that are vaccinated are asked to still take precautions.

We should know in the next few months.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:
torrey wrote:
Herd Immunity is everyone's strategy. Herd immunity is the concept of getting enough vaccines into people who can take vaccines to stop the spread of protect those who can't take vaccines (like people who are immuno compromised). There was a radical strategy early on about creating a similar condition by just getting everyone sick, but that isn't the strategy that we are following now.


I used the term “herd immunity” incorrectly. I wanted to describe the laissez-faire, non-preventative attitude that promotes opening all businesses, throwing away masks because they aren’t 100% effective, allowing gatherings and travel and super-spreader events, and letting Covid run rampant. It’s the let-nature-run-it’s-course crowd.

I’m not talking about the herd immunity that is achieved through reducing infections through masks, distancing, restrictions on activities + vaccines.

Maybe we need a new name for the laissez-faire approach?



You are being all or nothing on your assumptions. I am in favor of open businesses, free travel, parties, events, group gatherings and all the rest and have been doing it all since March. Myself and no one in family has had COVID. I am also in favor of wearing masks 100% of the time in public if you can't stay more than 6 feet from someone, washing hands and being aware of your surroundings.

You can get on with life and take reasonable precautions. If your solution, or anyone's solution, is total lockdown, then no thanks. Add to the fact that has shown not to be the total solution some think. Compare Florida and California.

I agree with President Biden and think no matter what we do, its going to get worse before it gets better and there is little we can do to change the trajectory. (Kay had some good ideas but it seems Biden is not following those either) If we started testing like crazy and isolating positives perhaps, but Biden did not seem very encouraging on the course it will take.

Take reasonable safety measures (masks and social distancing) get the vaccine if you want to, but live your life.

I have seen some writing this disease is not going anywhere ever no matter how many we get vaccinated. We can't keep social isolation and business closed up forever. I feel for the people who have lost an entire year sitting in their homes, ordering take out, staying away from society.

If the disease is indeed mutating, all the more reason we can't keep this up forever. We can't have doctors playing whack a mole with vaccines while the entire world sits in their homes for years and everyone is on government assistance.

If I remember right, you've used the cherry picked example of FL vs. CA before. Let's look at a different example. Chart is for Michigan. Can you point to the date where Michigan implemented new restrictions? Hint, it was late November. Not a total lockdown, nobody is doing that, just closing in person dining, gyms and some schools. Just because it hasn't affected you personally, doesn't mean the lives being lost aren't real people with real families.

I've said it 100 times on this forum, it's not the government that is causing lockdown, economy problems and isolation, it's the virus. Restaurants reopen here Monday, I still won't be going out to eat.


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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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Let’s not assume that government rules are a perfect indicator of Covid mitigation efforts. Rules are not enforced in some places. So, let’s not muddy the water talking about rules. Let’s just talk about information and behavior.

Remember that Covid won’t mutate if there aren’t infections. So, mutation is not inevitable. Mutations occur after we fail to stop infections. If everyone stays in their homes for a year, we won’t have mutations and doctors won’t be playing whack-a-mole. That’s an unrealistic, extreme argument.

I’ll try not to be all-or-nothing. Some people are currently living in those extreme positions. Some are following all safety precautions. Some are following none. We can’t ignore the impact of those people—for good or for bad.

I suppose quite a lot of people are like you— picking and choosing which mitigation efforts you like. We could call your group the Cafeteria Covid Mitigators. How is your approach helpful to us, and how is it harmful?

You say, “Myself and no one in family has had COVID.” A more accurate statement is that no one in your family has tested positive for Covid. According to webMD, over half (59%) of Covid cases are spread by asymptomatic Covid carriers.

Knowing that the spread of Covid between asymptomatic people creates risk of mutations that prolongs our Covid experience, are you more concerned about attending large gatherings? Does asymptomatic spread of Covid and risk of mutations change your ideas about the effort you’re willing to make to stop the spread of Covid?
Last edited by: CallMeMaybe: Jan 29, 21 8:08
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:


I used the term “herd immunity” incorrectly. I wanted to describe the laissez-faire, non-preventative attitude that promotes opening all businesses, throwing away masks because they aren’t 100% effective, allowing gatherings and travel and super-spreader events, and letting Covid run rampant. It’s the let-nature-run-it’s-course crowd.

I’m not talking about the herd immunity that is achieved through reducing infections through masks, distancing, restrictions on activities + vaccines.

Maybe we need a new name for the laissez-faire approach?


You are being all or nothing on your assumptions. I am in favor of open businesses, free travel, parties, events, group gatherings and all the rest and have been doing it all since March. Myself and no one in family has had COVID. I am also in favor of wearing masks 100% of the time in public if you can't stay more than 6 feet from someone, washing hands and being aware of your surroundings.

You can get on with life and take reasonable precautions. If your solution, or anyone's solution, is total lockdown, then no thanks. Add to the fact that has shown not to be the total solution some think. Compare Florida and California.

I agree with President Biden and think no matter what we do, its going to get worse before it gets better and there is little we can do to change the trajectory. (Kay had some good ideas but it seems Biden is not following those either) If we started testing like crazy and isolating positives perhaps, but Biden did not seem very encouraging on the course it will take.

Take reasonable safety measures (masks and social distancing) get the vaccine if you want to, but live your life.

I have seen some writing this disease is not going anywhere ever no matter how many we get vaccinated. We can't keep social isolation and business closed up forever. I feel for the people who have lost an entire year sitting in their homes, ordering take out, staying away from society.

If the disease is indeed mutating, all the more reason we can't keep this up forever. We can't have doctors playing whack a mole with vaccines while the entire world sits in their homes for years and everyone is on government assistance.


Let’s not assume that government rules are a perfect indicator of Covid mitigation efforts. Rules are not enforced in some places. So, let’s not muddy the water talking about rules. Let’s just take about information and behavior.

Remember that Covid won’t mutate if there aren’t infections. So, mutation is not inevitable. Mutations occur after we fail to stop infections. If everyone stays in their homes for a year, we won’t have mutations and doctors won’t be playing whack-a-mole. That’s an unrealistic, extreme argument.

I’ll try not to be all-or-nothing. Some people are currently living in those extreme positions. Some are following all safety precautions. Some are following none. We can’t ignore the impact of those people—for good or for bad.

I suppose quite a lot of people are like you— picking and choosing which mitigation efforts you like. We could call your group the Cafeteria Covid Mitigators. How is your approach helpful to us, and how is it harmful?

You say, “Myself and no one in family has had COVID.” A more accurate statement is that no one in your family has tested positive for Covid. According to webMD, over half (59%) of Covid cases are spread by asymptomatic Covid carriers.

Knowing that the spread of Covid between asymptomatic people creates risk of mutations that prolongs our Covid experience, are you more concerned about attending large gatherings? Does asymptomatic spread of Covid and risk of mutations change your ideas about the effort you’re willing to make to stop the spread of Covid?



If the way to stop it is closing schools, closing businesses, self isolation then no that information doesn't change my mind. Those things are off the table. If stopping and mitigating it means wearing masks, staying six feet away, washing hands etc, then sure ,I have been doing those things since this started.

Put it thusly, if the only way to get rid of COVID is total isolation and lockdown, that is measure far too great in response to the pandemic for me.

The pandemic's overlooked toll: a surge in childhood obesity (thecounter.org)

Just one of the many reasons total lockdown is off the table and does more harm than good.


if you want to ramp up testing to astronomical levers where everyone that moves about it tested twice a week, i am on board ( govt paid for), if you want to have everyone fill out a questionnaire before going into a business, I am on board. If you want to have COVID sniffing dogs at the front of every store or business I am on board ( provided the govmt pays for it).
There seem to be a number of measures we could put in place we still are not using. I am on board with Kay's testing and contract tracing method Kay has spelled out over and over but no one in govt ( even the great Fauci) seems to be pushing for that.

We have not exhausted all measures available at this point to even be talking about lockdowns and isolation as the ONLY way to get this under control.
Last edited by: SDG: Jan 29, 21 8:20
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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Just to be clear, total lockdown means individuals stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Intercity travel within affected areas would cease. Governments would provide economic and social aid to citizens who need it. It would take 5 weeks for this to stop Covid.

Also ETA (sorry, I do this constantly), you do realize that my family’s efforts (or people like me near you) are essential subsidizing your ability to gather with your family? Without the portion of the population like me who are complying with recommendations, your hospitals would be in worse shape.

Does any of this information change your mind?
Last edited by: CallMeMaybe: Jan 29, 21 8:27
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
Just to be clear, total lockdown means individuals stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Intercity travel within affected areas would cease. Governments would provide economic and social aid to citizens who need it. It would take 5 weeks for this to stop Covid.

Also ETA (sorry, I do this constantly), you do realize that my family’s efforts (or people like me near you) are essential subsidizing your ability to gather with your family? Without the portion of the population like me who are complying with recommendations, your hospitals would be in worse shape.

Does any of this information change your mind?

Yeah but if you want to make restrictions sound really scary, you call them total lockdown.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
Just to be clear, total lockdown means individuals stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Intercity travel within affected areas would cease. Governments would provide economic and social aid to citizens who need it. It would take 5 weeks for this to stop Covid.



this is perhaps the silliest things I have ever read on this site. If 5 weeks is all, then hell, lets jump in. Oh wait, I think we did all those things to "Blunt the curve" as we were told back in March and it did not "stop the spread" 5 weeks turned into months on end.

to be clear what you are suggesting as lockdown was done in my city, and with me and my family when this started. Grocery store trips for food, essential work only, work from home and doctor visits. Where were you in March 2020?

That is completely fanciful and wishful thinking.

If what you suggest would really stop it completely in five weeks, I will sign on. Send your suggestion to Biden and lets see if he and Fauci believe that will get it done.
Last edited by: SDG: Jan 29, 21 8:30
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
torrey wrote:
Herd Immunity is everyone's strategy. Herd immunity is the concept of getting enough vaccines into people who can take vaccines to stop the spread of protect those who can't take vaccines (like people who are immuno compromised). There was a radical strategy early on about creating a similar condition by just getting everyone sick, but that isn't the strategy that we are following now.


I used the term “herd immunity” incorrectly. I wanted to describe the laissez-faire, non-preventative attitude that promotes opening all businesses, throwing away masks because they aren’t 100% effective, allowing gatherings and travel and super-spreader events, and letting Covid run rampant. It’s the let-nature-run-it’s-course crowd.

I’m not talking about the herd immunity that is achieved through reducing infections through masks, distancing, restrictions on activities + vaccines.

Maybe we need a new name for the laissez-faire approach?

Let's call it the "rruff approach." Where is that guy anyway? Back in about September he said there was no chance we would get to 2k deaths per day by year end, as the models were predicting. He almost laughed off the idea of 400k deaths by the 20 January inauguration. Oops.

And about that time he pointed to the chart of Sweden's daily deaths, saying, "See, Sweden's lack of lockdown in the spring worked!" (even though Swedes did take many social distancing precautions). Sadly, though, daily deaths in Sweden began spiking in the fall, and only began coming back down after they imposed a mobility restrictions in November and a lockdown in January. (Oh look - lockdowns work!)


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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [CallMeMaybe] [ In reply to ]
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CallMeMaybe wrote:
Will the information about mutations enter the thinking and mean anything to the people who currently want to let Covid freely move through society?

This isn't my position, just bringing up the point.

My understanding is that the general trend of a rapidly mutating virus that's allowed to freely spread is that it will trend towards lower lethality. Just because less-lethal strains have more opportunity to spread themselves more efficiently. So COVID would trend towards becoming something like the common cold.

I don't know how long that would take, but I'm guessing unacceptably long given the alternative paths we could take. And it's also true that though lower lethality would be the trend, it doesn't mean there couldn't be more-lethal strains that pop up along the way.
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [SDG] [ In reply to ]
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SDG wrote:
CallMeMaybe wrote:
Just to be clear, total lockdown means individuals stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Intercity travel within affected areas would cease. Governments would provide economic and social aid to citizens who need it. It would take 5 weeks for this to stop Covid.



this is perhaps the silliest things I have ever read on this site. If 5 weeks is all, then hell, lets jump in. Oh wait, I think we did all those things to "Blunt the curve" as we were told back in March and it did not "stop the spread" 5 weeks turned into months on end.

to be clear what you are suggesting as lockdown was done in my city, and with me and my family when this started. Grocery store trips for food, essential work only, work from home and doctor visits. Where were you in March 2020?

That is completely fanciful and wishful thinking.

If what you suggest would really stop it completely in five weeks, I will sign on. Send your suggestion to Biden and lets see if he and Fauci believe that will get it done.

I have a friend in Lisbon, Portugal. She can go for a short walk outside her home, but has to carry ID with proof of address to show she is not too far from home. Many countries have imposed close to the kinds of restrictions described above. Obviously selfish Americans would never stand for that though. You know, coz "Freedom!"
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Re: Herd Immunity & Covid Mutations [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
Where is that guy anyway?

I think he's hanging with JSA somewhere.
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